【CEO观点】苹果CEO，一代不如一代？

库克成为不了乔布斯，也没有人能成为库克

长期关注苹果的《华尔街日报》科技记者特里普·麦克尔在2022年出版了一部传记——《After Steve》(《史蒂夫之后》)，讲述了乔布斯去世后的10年间，他的继任者蒂姆·库克如何继续运营公司。

这本书的副标题是：苹果如何成为一家价值万亿美元并失去灵魂的公司。

这也是特里普对苹果过去10年的总结。“缺乏创新”“失去灵魂”“吃老本”等词，时常被用来诟病库克时代的苹果。

但与此同时，在库克的带领下，苹果成为美国首家市值突破1万亿、2万亿美元，乃至全球首家市值突破3万亿美元的公司。相较于库克在2011年接手时（1500亿美元），苹果如今的市值增长了约20倍。

在争议之中执掌苹果13年后，库克也即将迎来自己的交棒时刻。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

苹果最近一次授予库克的限制性股票将在2025年全部发放完毕，关于谁将成为苹果新一任CEO的讨论开始浮出水面。

据彭博社报道，苹果现任硬件工程主管约翰·特努斯（John Ternus）最有可能成为下一任苹果CEO。此外，如果库克在短期内卸任，那么现任COO、被称作“库克的库克”的杰夫·威廉姆斯（Jeff Williams），也有可能成为继任者。

但无论是谁，相比起在乔布斯病重期间将公司打理的井井有条的库克，亦或是与乔布斯密切合作的首席设计师乔纳森·艾夫，新一届的潜在继任者们都显得“默默无闻”。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

一代不如一代，或许已经成为这家科技巨头掌舵者们的宿命。

一、谁能执掌3万亿美元巨轮

位于美国加州库比蒂诺市的苹果公司总部Apple Park，占地26万平方米。由于外形酷似一艘着陆的圆形宇宙飞船，它也被称作“飞船总部”。

2023年，从这艘飞船中诞生的产品全球保有量超过20亿台，帮助苹果在一年内赚了近1000亿美元的净利润。

但驾驶好这样一艘飞船并不容易。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

2021年，库克的第一个十年任期即将结束时，他所持有的第一笔股权激励也在同一年到期。彼时，外界便开始期待苹果下一任CEO的可能人选。而苹果选择了用一笔价值7600万美元的限制性股权激励，将这一悬念推后至2025年。

之后，库克在参加一档播客节目时被问到关于权力交接的问题，他表示已决定从公司内部寻找继任者，正在努力为董事会提供几个选择。库克表示，“我们有非常详细的继任计划，因为一些不可预测的事情总会发生，明天我可能就会走错路。当然，还是希望这种情况不会发生。”

在很长一段时间里，苹果COO杰夫都被认为是最有可能接替库克的人选。由于库克曾在乔布斯时代出任苹果的COO，因此，杰夫也被称作“库克的库克”。

杰夫与库克有相似的背景和履历，并长期担任库克的副手。

2015年，库克任命杰夫为COO时，就有长期关注苹果的分析师表示，库克正在培养他作为自己的接班人。担任COO后，杰夫带领的团队负责了库克时代首个新产品Apple Watch的市场推广。

作为苹果供应链的最高负责人，杰夫熟悉苹果各个硬件产品的供应链体系，并在2019年苹果前首席设计师艾夫离职后，接手了软硬件产品设计的相关工作。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

但随着库克的任期延迟至2025年以后，年龄仅比库克小两岁的杰夫不再是第一候选人。据彭博社报道，更年轻的硬件工程主管特努斯最有可能成为下一任苹果CEO。

特努斯2001年加入苹果，先后参与过AirPods、iPad以及数代Mac和iPhone的开发。

但对特努斯的质疑声也有许多，例如他并没有深度参与苹果当前最重要的新产品Vision Pro的项目。彭博社援引苹果内部人士对特努斯的评价是：不被顶级工程师尊重，不关注未来投资，不进行大胆的技术收购，不以创新者自居。

库克在接任苹果CEO一职时也曾饱受质疑。在谈论那段经历时，库克表示，“我不能成为史蒂夫，我认为没有人能取代他。他是一个百年难得一见的天才，有任何人想象不到的创新能力。所以，我所能做的就是成为最好的自己。”

而如今，谁能成下一个库克，又成了一道难题。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

二、从不被看好到白月光

对库克而言，从无法取代乔布斯的继任者到苹果公司的“白月光”，中间只差了一个退休的决定。

乔布斯曾经评价库克“不懂产品”，但对产品异常偏执的乔布斯仍然将苹果CEO的接力棒交到了库克手中。

事实证明，库克在他的任期内确实没有再推出一款像iPhone一样具有颠覆意义的硬件产品，但他用自己的方式重塑了苹果。

1998年，库克加入苹果并担任全球运营高级副总裁时，这家公司正处在破产边缘。拥有多年供应链和采购背景的库克到来后，首先对苹果的运营体系进行了全面改革。

他在半年时间内打通了供应商、组装厂、零售商等各个供应链环节的数据，并利用ERP（企业资源规划）系统将苹果的库存周期从30天大幅缩减至6天。1998年年底，苹果扭亏为盈，库克搭建的供应链体系起到了关键作用。

这也是库克一步步迈向苹果CEO的开端。

2005年，库克被提拔为苹果COO。乔布斯当时表示，“蒂姆和我已经合作7年多了，我期待我们能更紧密地配合，以帮助苹果在未来几年实现伟大的目标。” CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

在担任COO期间，库克帮助苹果打造了遍布全球的高效供应链体系，让苹果从一家科技创新公司逐步变成一台高效运转的赚钱机器。《库克传》中提到：“许多人可能并没有意识到，对苹果这样一家成熟的公司来说，最重要的不是产品，而是物流——高效的供应链、分销、财务和营销。”

2009年1月，乔布斯由于刚刚做完肝脏移植手术需要休假6个月，库克第一次担任苹果的临时CEO。在乔布斯休息期间，库克负责了iPhone 3GS的推出，并取得了发布后首周末销量超100万部的成绩，这是当时苹果销量最高的一款智能手机。

2011年1月，乔布斯再次因病休假，库克第二次以临时CEO的身份管理苹果。

但即便是屡立战功、多次以临时CEO的身份展现管理才能的库克，在2011年8月从乔布斯手中接过苹果CEO职位后，还是受到了大量质疑。

据《史蒂夫之后》一书记载，当库克被任命为苹果CEO时，质疑的声音无处不在。无论是华尔街、喜欢iPhone的顾客，还是科技行业的朋友和同事，当他们听到库克上任时，每个人都感到紧张不安。

质疑的声音伴随了库克13年。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

这期间，库克以CEO的身份推出了Apple Watch、Airpods、Vision Pro等硬件产品，为苹果开拓了可穿戴设备的市场，并进军服务业，推出流媒体Apple TV+和音乐订阅服务Apple Music等。

苹果的市值也从2011年8月的1500亿美元增长至3万亿美元，并在很长一段时间内占据全球市值最高公司的宝座。

但对于苹果这家公司而言，库克永远是乔布斯耀眼光环下的影子。

直到他即将退休的一刻，人们才意识到，苹果不会再有第二个乔布斯，甚至连第二个库克都成为奢望。

三、继承者们的宿命

每一家成功的公司都会有一位灵魂人物，就像乔布斯之于苹果，舒尔茨之于星巴克，比尔·盖茨之于微软，贝佐斯之于亚马逊。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

做他们的继承者往往是一项“高危”工作。

2021年7月，安迪·贾西接替贝佐斯成为亚马逊CEO。作为创始人之后的第二位CEO，贾西的上任之旅并不轻松。

他接手亚马逊CEO之时，由于新冠疫情的影响，大量线下零售转移至线上，当年Q2亚马逊实现了单季超1000亿美元的营收，市值也站上了1.92万亿美元的高峰。

但随后，亚马逊的市值和业绩一路掉头向下。2022年Q1，亚马逊宣布公司遭遇2001年互联网泡沫破灭以来最疲软的单季营收增长，并出现2015年以来首次单季亏损。从2021年7月到2023年1月，一年半的时间里，亚马逊的市值蒸发了超1万亿美元。

上任才一个多月就面对一个“烂摊子”的贾西一度饱受质疑。但也有华尔街分析师指出，亚马逊当时的困境主要源于此前的无序扩张，与新任CEO并没有直接关系。

事实上，自2023年Q2起，亚马逊的业绩开始迅速改善，并在Q3交出一份利润远超预期的财报。整个2023年，亚马逊市值涨幅超过80%。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

贝佐斯创办了亚马逊，他提出的“飞轮效应”、Prime会员体系时至今日仍然被众多互联网公司争相模仿。贾西在亚马逊的工作年限与贝佐斯相仿，并带领亚马逊的云服务业务AWS迅速成长，成为电商业务之外的一大高利润支柱业务。在最近一期财报中，AWS已经为亚马逊贡献了超过一半的经营利润。但他仍然活在贝佐斯的光环没有照耀到的阴影里。

相比贾西，另一位硅谷CEO继承者史蒂夫·鲍尔默的境遇“更惨”，曾一度被《福布斯》评为最差CEO。

2000年，鲍尔默从盖茨手中接过微软帅印，开启了长达14年的CEO任期。鲍尔默最为外界诟病的有两件事：一是在其掌舵期内，微软错过了移动互联网时代；二是他主导了收购诺基亚的糟糕交易。

但同样在鲍尔默任内，即便在移动互联网时代掉队，微软营收依然翻了近4倍，利润增长超过一倍。

错过移动互联网时代也并非全是鲍尔默的责任。盖茨曾回忆称，微软在经历了2000年前后反垄断诉讼的“世纪大审判”后，对移动互联网的态度一直很保守。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

此外，鲍尔默对云计算的重视与提前布局，也为日后微软的云服务Azure打下了基础。

作为明星CEO的继承者，他们无可避免地会被放在显微镜下观察、对比。对于他们之中的大多数人而言，无功无过就是最大的“过错”，而一次决策的失误更是会被数倍放大。

没有一位明星CEO继任者逃得过“一代不如一代”的宿命。或许只有在退休的那一刻，他们的是非功过，才能得到公正的评判。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

翻译：

Apple CEO is getting worse from generation to generation?

Cook can’t be Jobs, and no one can be Cook

The Wall Street Journal technology reporter Trip Mackel, who has long followed Apple, published a biography in 2022, “After Steve,” about how his successor, Tim Cook, continued to run the company in the decade after Jobs’ death.

The book is subtitled: How Apple Became a trillion-dollar Company That Lost Its Soul.

That’s how Tripp sums up Apple’s past 10 years. Words such as “lack of innovation”, “loss of soul” and “eating old money” are often used to criticize Apple in the Cook era.

But at the same time, under Cook’s leadership, Apple became the first company in the United States with a market value of $1 trillion, $2 trillion, and even the first company in the world with a market value of $3 trillion. Apple is now worth about 20 times more than it was when Cook took over in 2011 ($150 billion). CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

After 13 years at the helm of Apple amid controversy, Cook is approaching his own handover moment.

Apple’s most recent grant of restricted stock to Cook will be fully issued in 2025, and discussions about who will become Apple’s new CEO have begun to surface.

Photo source: Apple official website

According to Bloomberg, Apple’s current head of hardware engineering, John Ternus, is the most likely to become Apple’s next CEO. In addition, if Cook steps down in the short term, current COO Jeff Williams, known as “Cook’s Cook,” is also a possible successor.

But no matter who they are, the new crop of potential successors is relatively unknown compared to Cook, who ran the company well during Jobs’s illness, or Jonathan Ive, the chief designer who worked closely with Jobs. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

It may be the fate of those at the helm of the tech giant that each generation is worse than the next.

First, who can run the $3 trillion giant ship

Apple Park, the headquarters of Apple in Cupertino, California, USA, covers an area of 260,000 square meters. Because it resembles a round spaceship landing, it is also called the “spaceship headquarters”.

In 2023, there are more than 2 billion products born from the ship in the world, helping Apple earn nearly $100 billion in net profit in one year. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

But flying such a ship is not easy.

In 2021, at the end of Cook’s first 10-year term, the first equity incentive he holds expires in the same year. At that time, the outside world began to look for the next CEO of Apple. Apple chose to use a restricted stock incentive worth $76 million to push the suspense to 2025.

Later, when asked about the transition during a podcast, Cook said he had decided to look for a successor from within the company and was working to present the board with several options. “We have a very detailed succession plan because unpredictable things happen and tomorrow I could go the wrong way,” Cook said. Hopefully, that won’t happen.”

For a long time, Apple COO Jeff Cook was considered the most likely candidate to succeed Cook. Because Cook served as Apple’s COO under Steve Jobs, Jeff is also known as “Cook’s Cook.”

Jeff Williams
Photo source: Apple official website

Jeff has a similar background and resume to Cook and has served as Cook’s deputy for a long time.

When Cook named Jeff COO in 2015, longtime Apple analysts said Cook was grooming him to be his successor. As COO, Jeff led the team responsible for the marketing of the Apple Watch, the first new product of the Cook era. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

As the top person in charge of Apple’s supply chain, Jeff is familiar with the supply chain system of Apple’s various hardware products, and took over the related work of hardware and software product design after the departure of Apple’s former chief designer Ive in 2019.

But with Cook’s term extended beyond 2025, Jeff, who is only two years younger than Cook, is no longer the first candidate. According to Bloomberg, the younger hardware engineering executive Turnus is the most likely to become Apple’s next CEO.

John Ternus
Photo source: Apple official website

Turnus joined Apple in 2001 and has worked on AirPods, ipads, and generations of Macs and iphones.

But there are many doubts about Tenus, for example, he is not deeply involved in Apple’s most important new product, the Vision Pro. Bloomberg quoted Apple insiders as saying that Tenus was not respected by top engineers, did not focus on future investments, did not make bold technology acquisitions, and did not think of himself as an innovator. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Cook had his share of doubts when he took over as Apple’s CEO. Speaking about the experience, Cook said, “I can’t be Steve, and I don’t think anyone can replace him.” He is a once-in-a-century genius with an ability to innovate beyond anyone’s imagination. So, all I can do is be the best version of myself.”

Now, who will become the next Cook is a puzzle.

Second, from unanticipated to white moonlight

For Cook, from the successor who could not replace Jobs to the “white moonlight” of Apple, the only difference is a decision to retire.

Jobs once commented that Cook “does not understand products”, but Jobs, who is extremely paranoid about products, still handed over the baton of Apple CEO to Cook.

It turns out that Cook did not launch another disruptive hardware product like the iPhone during his tenure, but he reshaped Apple in his own way.

When Cook joined Apple as senior vice president of worldwide operations in 1998, the company was on the brink of bankruptcy. With years of supply chain and procurement background, Cook first overhauled Apple’s operating system when he arrived. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

In half a year, he got through the data of suppliers, assembly plants, retailers and other supply chain links, and used the ERP (enterprise resource planning) system to reduce Apple’s inventory cycle from 30 days to six days. By the end of 1998, Apple was turning a profit, and Cook’s supply chain system played a key role.

This is also the beginning of Cook’s step toward becoming Apple’s CEO.

In 2005, Cook was promoted to COO of Apple. “Tim and I have worked together for more than seven years, and I look forward to working even more closely together to help Apple achieve its great goals in the years ahead,” Jobs said at the time. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

During his tenure as COO, Cook helped Apple build an efficient supply chain around the world, transforming Apple from a technology innovation company to an efficient money-making machine. “What many people may not realize is that for a company as mature as Apple, the most important thing is not the product, but the logistics – efficient supply chain, distribution, finance and marketing,” Cook writes.

Cook first took over as interim CEO in January 2009, when Jobs took a six-month leave of absence following a liver transplant. During Jobs’s break, Cook oversaw the launch of the iPhone 3GS, which sold more than 1 million units in its first weekend, Apple’s best-selling smartphone at the time.

In January 2011, Jobs went on medical leave again, and Cook ran Apple for a second time as interim CEO.

But even Mr. Cook, who has repeatedly demonstrated his management skills as an interim CEO, faced plenty of skepticism after he took over from Mr. Jobs in August 2011.

According to the book “After Steve,” when Cook was appointed CEO of Apple, the voices of skepticism were everywhere. Whether it’s Wall Street, iPhone-loving customers, or friends and colleagues in the tech industry, everyone was on edge when they heard Cook was on the job.

The voices of doubt have followed Cook for 13 years. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

During this period, Cook launched Apple Watch, Airpods, Vision Pro and other hardware products as CEO, opened up the market for wearable devices for Apple, and entered the service industry, launched streaming media Apple TV+ and Music subscription service Apple Music.

Apple’s market value has also grown from $150 billion in August 2011 to $3 trillion, and it has held the position of the world’s most valuable company for a long time.

But for Apple as a company, Cook will always be a shadow of Jobs.

It wasn’t until he was about to retire that people realized there would never be another Steve Jobs at Apple, or even a second Tim Cook. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Third, the destiny of the heirs

Every successful company has a soul, like Steve Jobs to Apple, Steve Schultz to Starbucks, Bill Gates to Microsoft, and Jeff Bezos to Amazon.

Being their successor is often a “high-risk” job.

In July 2021, Andy Jassy succeeded Bezos as CEO of Amazon. As the second CEO after the founder, Jassy’s journey to the top was not easy.

When he took over as CEO of Amazon, due to the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic, a large number of offline retail was transferred to online, and Amazon achieved revenue of more than $100 billion in a single quarter in the second quarter of that year, and its market value also stood at the peak of $1.92 trillion.

But then Amazon’s market value and performance went all the way down. In Q1 2022, Amazon announced its weakest quarterly revenue growth since the dotcom bubble burst in 2001 and its first quarterly loss since 2015. From July 2021 to January 2023, in a year and a half, Amazon’s market value evaporated by more than $1 trillion. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

After just over a month in office, Jassi, who faced a “mess”, was once questioned. However, some Wall Street analysts pointed out that Amazon’s difficulties at that time were mainly due to the previous disorderly expansion and were not directly related to the new CEO.

In fact, since the Q2 of 2023, Amazon’s performance has begun to improve rapidly, and in Q3, it delivered a profit that far exceeded expectations. Through 2023, Amazon’s market value has increased by more than 80%.

Bezos founded Amazon, and the “flywheel effect” and Prime membership system he proposed are still imitated by many Internet companies today. Jassy has been at Amazon for a similar number of years as Bezos and has led the rapid growth of Amazon’s cloud services business, AWS, into a highly profitable pillar of its business outside of e-commerce. In the most recent earnings report, AWS has contributed more than half of Amazon’s operating profit. But he still lives in the shadows where Bezos’s aura does not shine.

Compared to Jassy, another Silicon Valley CEO successor, Steve Ballmer, fared “worse” and was once named the worst CEO by Forbes. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Mr. Ballmer took over from Mr. Gates in 2000, beginning a 14-year tenure as CEO. Mr Ballmer is most criticised for two things: that Microsoft missed the mobile Internet era during his tenure; The second is that he oversaw the botched acquisition of Nokia.

But also during Ballmer’s tenure, even after falling behind in the mobile Internet era, Microsoft’s revenue nearly quadrupled and profits more than doubled.

Mr Ballmer is not entirely to blame for missing the mobile Internet era. Gates once recalled that Microsoft had been conservative in its attitude toward the mobile Internet after the “trial of the century” of antitrust litigation around 2000.

In addition, Ballmer’s emphasis on cloud computing and advance layout also laid the foundation for Microsoft’s cloud service Azure in the future. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

As heirs to star ceos, they will inevitably be put under the microscope. For most of them, inaction is the biggest “fault”, and a mistake in decision-making is magnified many times.

None of the star CEO successors has escaped the fate of “getting worse from generation to generation.” Perhaps it is only at the moment of retirement that their merits and faults can be fairly judged.

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