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style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION CXO\u8054\u76df cxounion.cn<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading 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style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION CXO\u8054\u76df cxounion.cn<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"900\" height=\"500\" src=\"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-14.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11308\" srcset=\"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-14.png 900w, http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-14-300x167.png 300w, http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-14-768x427.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u82f1\u6587\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Are there shortcuts to investing, doing business, doing things? If anything, it is to master the rules and act according to the rules. In recent years, some friends have suggested that I summarize the basic laws of China&#8217;s economic operation .  So that you can understand and apply them easily. I reread the classics recently, reminisce about the present, and suddenly. The first draft was more than 10,000 words, but later it was reduced to 2,500 words, which everyone could read in a few minutes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Engaged in macroeconomic research for 20 years, has worked in public policy departments, financial institutions, etc..  Combined with long-term observation, practice and research results at home.  And abroad, summarized the ten laws of China&#8217;s economy, the talent is not enough . It is inevitable to have the regret of losing pearls, the wild-man expose, share with you. Understand macro trends, grasp investment opportunities, and choose better than effort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">First, the long-term economic growth model depends on the three major factors of capital, labor and technology, which is the first principle of the rise and fall of countries in the world.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>China&#8217;s rapid economic growth in the past benefited from three major dividends: the dividend of reform.  And opening up, the dividend of globalization and the demographic dividend. Globalization brought capital and technology, and the baby boom from 1962 to 1976 brought labor. Reform and opening up combined these three factors and two dividends through institutional changes, releasing the huge potential of 1.4 billion people to create wealth. Now the content of these three factors and the three dividends have changed, and the policies.  And strategies are being adjusted to promote the Chinese economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development. The author&#8217;s original team of the Development Research Center of The State Council proposed the &#8220;growth phase transformation&#8221; in 2010.  After the author went to the sea, he proposed the &#8220;new 5% is better than the old 8%&#8221;.  And &#8220;economic L-shape&#8221; in 2014, and proposed the &#8220;new cycle&#8221; in 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Second, the second law, the local GDP championship triggered county competition, realized the incentive compatibility of the government and enterprises, and the momentum of 10,000 horses galloping in each region, you chase me.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In areas with fast GDP growth, local cadres are promoted quickly . So local governments vigorously attract investment, improve the business environment.  And actively serve enterprises, and the government and enterprises want to work together. This is a big secret of China&#8217;s economic engine summarized by the international academic field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Third, the third rule is that infrastructure is a typical public good with strong externality, which is prone to lack of supply due to free-riding and the tragedy of public land, thus restricting economic growth. <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Therefore, it is provided by the government in the current period . And will benefit from economic growth and tax growth in the long run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China has been the beneficiary of large-scale infrastructure construction ahead of time, demonstrating the advantages of the national system. Over the past 40 years, the large-scale and advanced construction of roads, Bridges, high-speed railways and airports has greatly reduced logistics costs.  And improved logistics efficiency for enterprises.  And is a magic weapon for China&#8217;s rapid rise to become a &#8220;world factory&#8221; and &#8220;world manufacturing center&#8221;. The advanced construction of 3G and 4G has brought explosive growth of the Internet economy . And mobile payment, new retail and sharing economy have flourished. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China and the United States have led the great development of the global Internet economy in the past 20 years. At present, China is carrying out advanced layout in new infrastructure fields such as new energy, 5G, charging piles, data centers, artificial intelligence and UHV . And cultivating new economy, new technology and new industries. In 1978, China&#8217;s per capita GDP was lower than India&#8217;s . And in 2021 it will be more than three times India&#8217;s. The author advocated &#8220;New infrastructure&#8221; at the beginning of 2020.  And the monograph &#8220;New Infrastructure&#8221; won the 5th Party Member Training Innovation Textbook Award of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION CXO\u8054\u76df cxounion.cn<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fourth, the fourth law, entrepreneurship is one of the most important factors of production, entrepreneurs bear the huge risk of innovation and entrepreneurship<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And get the surplus value accordingly. China has continuously promoted the marketization of factors such as capital, labor, land, data and information.  And technology.  And strengthened the protection of property rights.  And entrepreneurs have combined the above-mentioned factors of production to participate in market competition. China has emerged a number of entrepreneurs with &#8220;entrepreneurial spirit&#8221;, becoming the tide of The Times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fifth, China&#8217;s rapid economic growth has brought huge wealth opportunities and become the best fertile ground for wealth creation in the world.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>With the world&#8217;s largest unified market of 1.4 billion people, China has averaged real GDP growth of more than 9% a year.  And nominal economic growth of 12% over the past 40 years, which is a macro return on investment far exceeding that of any country in the world over the same period. Forty years ago, the Chinese people left the world with the impression of poverty, 40 years later.  China has become the world&#8217;s largest consumer of luxury goods. Although the national economy has hundreds of industries and thousands of listed companies, it can be simplified into three categories: hard work without making money, hard money, making money without hard work, from the perspective of investment, choosing better than hard work, making money without hard work often gives birth to big stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sixth, the sixth law, the economic cycle is the objective existence and law of the market economy environment. <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>By inventory adjustment, capacity adjustment, innovation agglomeration and ebb tide, human nature.  And other factors nested, the economy always from recovery, overheating, stagflation, recession.  And then to recovery cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The purpose of counter-cyclical adjustment in macroeconomic regulation is to prevent sharp fluctuations in the economy. The short-cycle inventory cycle of China&#8217;s economy is a 3-4 year cycle, the medium-cycle production capacity cycle is a 7-10 year cycle, and the long-cycle innovation cycle is a 40-50 year cycle. The author has published two monographs &#8220;Real Estate Cycle&#8221; and &#8220;New Cycle&#8221; to elaborate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Seventh, the seventh law, the investment clock is the international economic cyclic-based from top to bottom of the mainstream asset allocation framework, in the United States, China and other basic application.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Using the two indicators of output gap and inflation, the economic cycle can be divided into four stages of recession, recovery, overheating and stagflation, and asset classes can be divided into bonds, equities, commodities and cash. When the economic cycle follows the cycle of &#8220;recession &#8211; recovery &#8211; overheating &#8211; stagflation&#8221;, the returns of bonds, stocks, commodities, and cash in turn lead the trend. Investors can profit by identifying important inflection points in fundamentals and monetary policy and capitalizing on trends during cycle phase changes. The author makes a detailed analysis in the Macromembership course of Zepin.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION CXO\u8054\u76df cxounion.cn<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Eighth, the eighth rule, the stock market is the barometer of money.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Textbooks often say that &#8220;the stock market is the barometer of the economy&#8221;, but it is not applicable in most periods of reality. According to our long-term empirical test, the stock market has a strong positive correlation with the currency, so we put forward &#8220;the stock market is the barometer of the currency&#8221;, which is widely circulated in the industry. Simply put, in the early stages of recovery at the end of a recession, when money is loose, the stock market tends to perform better; When the economy is overheating and money is tightening, the stock market underperforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p> This phenomenon can be explained by the DDM model, where stock prices are corporate earnings divided by the risk-free interest rate and risk appetite. This is the difference between practical economics and academia. In 2014, based on the economic cycle, the investment clock and the stock market as a barometer of the currency, the author predicted that &#8220;5,000 points is not a dream&#8221;, the main logic is the reduction of risk-free interest rates and the increase of risk appetite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ninth, the ninth law, real estate long-term look at the population, mid-term look at land, short-term look at finance.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Population is demand, land is supply, and finance is leverage. Areas with population inflow and insufficient land supply are prone to rising housing prices if they catch up with financial easing, and falling housing prices if not. With the flow of population to buy a house, from the international experience, the population in the long-term to urban agglomeration and regional central cities, the real estate market will become increasingly divided. In 2021, China&#8217;s urbanization rate has reached 64.7%, and the houses in more than 70% of cities may have excess risks in the future, and only about 20%-30% of urban houses have investment value. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The road is simple. The standard analytical framework we propose is widely adopted. Based on this analytical framework, in 2015, on the eve of the housing price surge, the prediction of &#8220;double the first-line housing price&#8221; was rated as the top ten classic forecasts of the year. In the long run, the three hard currencies resist inflation and beat the printing press.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION CXO\u8054\u76df cxounion.cn<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rule 10: Real estate is the mother of cycles.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Real estate is the first pillar industry of the national economy, driven by the upstream and downstream industry chain is particularly long, up to more than 50 industries, through the upstream and downstream affect enterprise investment. Local governments rely on land finance, and real estate affects government investment through land finance. Real estate is the most important asset allocation of residents, which affects residents&#8217; consumption and confidence through wealth effect. When real estate is stable, the economy is stable. Most of the major financial crises in the world are caused by the collapse of the real estate bubble, and other assets are difficult to produce such a huge impact. According to the international experience of the United States, Japan, Germany, Singapore and other countries, the long-term mechanism of real estate is urban agglomeration strategy, human-land linkage, financial stability and real estate tax. 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