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UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u6218\u7565\u89c4\u5212\u4e2d\uff0c\u8861\u91cf\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e25\u5cfb\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6982\u5ff5\u4e0a\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6b63\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u8861\u91cf\u4ec0\u4e48\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u8861\u91cf\u51b3\u5b9a\u7740\u5927\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u5408\u9002\u7684\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u51b3\u5b9a\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u7684\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u4ee5\u53ca\u6211\u4eec\uff08\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\uff09\u505a\u7684\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8861\u91cf\u5728\u89c4\u5212\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u662f\u6781\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u7279\u522b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u8bbe\u6cd5\u628a\u5404\u79cd\u671f\u671b\u5305\u542b\u5728\u89c4\u5212\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\uff08\u5e76\u4e14\u6bd4\u8f83\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u4e86\u89e3\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u6570\u503c\u65b9\u9762\u5b58\u5728\u54ea\u4e9b\u91cd\u5927\u504f\u5dee\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u53ca\u65e9\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u4e9b\u671f\u671b\u662f\u5426\u771f\u6b63\u80fd\u591f\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u5426\u5219\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u505a\u89c4\u5212\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u53cd\u9988\uff0c\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u4ece\u5b9e\u9645\u4e8b\u4ef6\u56de\u5230\u89c4\u5212\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u63a7\u5236\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u4e0d\u80fd\u51b3\u5b9a\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u5426\u60f3\u8981\u505a\u51fa\u9700\u8981\u5192\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u957f\u671f\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u505a\u51fa\u8fd9\u79cd\u51b3\u7b56\u662f\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u7684\u5929\u804c\u3002\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u53ea\u662f\u6709\u6743\u51b3\u5b9a\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u5730\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e0d\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u5730\u505a\u51fa\u8fd9\u79cd\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u662f\u52aa\u529b\u6355\u6349\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5408\u7406\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u7eaf\u7cb9\u9760\u778e\u8499\u4e71\u731c\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5728\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u6027\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u7531\u4e8e\u521b\u4e1a\u578b\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u81ea\u613f\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u51b3\u7b56\u65b9\u6cd5\u8d8a\u662f\u5408\u4e4e\u7406\u6027\u3001\u8d8a\u662f\u6709\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u8d8a\u662f\u4ee5\u77e5\u8bc6\u800c\u975e\u9884\u8a00\u4e3a\u4f9d\u636e\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u8d8a\u662f\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u7684\uff0c\u8d8a\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u751f\u6548\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c<strong>\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u6218\u7565\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u7acb\u5373\u884c\u52a8\u3002<\/strong>  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6218\u7565\u89c4\u5212\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u7528\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4ee3\u66ff\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u7528\u79d1\u5b66\u4ee3\u66ff\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u3002\u5b83\u751a\u81f3\u4e0d\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u52c7\u6c14\u3001\u7ecf\u9a8c\u3001\u76f4\u89c9\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u9884\u611f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u548c\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u50cf\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u548c\u533b\u5b66\u4e0d\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u533b\u751f\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u54c1\u8d28\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u5f00\u5c55\u89c4\u5212\u5de5\u4f5c\u5e76\u4e3a\u5176\u63d0\u4f9b\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u5f3a\u5316\u4e86\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u529b\u3001\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u548c\u8fdc\u89c1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/CXOUNION\u65b0\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Peter Drucker: Strategy is not planning &#8220;what to do in the future&#8221;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Introduction<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Strategic planning allows businesses to prepare today for the future by asking, &#8220;What should our business be?&#8221; It asks, &#8220;What must we do today to have the future?&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Strategic planning requires risky decisions, an orderly abandonment of the past, and a clear delineation and allocation of the work required to create the desired future. The goal of strategic planning is immediate action.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">First, what is strategic planning Not<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Managers need to be clear about what strategic planning is not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">It&#8217;s not a magic box or a bunch of technology. It&#8217;s analytical thinking, it&#8217;s putting resources into action<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Many techniques may be used in the strategic planning process, but no one technique is essential. Strategic planning may require the use of computers, but the most important questions, &#8220;What is our business?&#8221; or &#8220;what should it be,&#8221; cannot be quantified and computer programmed. Modeling or simulation can be helpful, but they are not strategic planning, just tools for a specific purpose. They may or may not be appropriate for a particular situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quantification is not planning. It is true that in strategic planning one should use as logical a method as possible, if only to be sure not to deceive oneself, but some of the most important questions can perhaps only be expressed in qualitative terms, such as &#8220;larger&#8221; or &#8220;smaller&#8221;, and &#8220;sooner&#8221; or &#8220;later&#8221;. These words are not easily dealt with by quantitative techniques. There are equally important areas, such as political climate, social responsibility or human resources (including management resources), that cannot be quantified at all. They can only be used as constraints or boundaries, not as factors in an equation.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Strategic planning is not the application of the scientific method to business decision making, but the application of thinking, analysis, imagination and judgment. It is responsibility, not technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Strategic planning is not forecasting. It&#8217;s not designing the future. Any attempt to design the future is foolish, because the future is unpredictable. Trying to design the future only makes us doubt what we are doing<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>If anyone is still under the illusion that man has the power to predict very short periods of time, let us look at the headlines in yesterday&#8217;s newspapers and ask what could have been foreseen ten years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We must first accept the premise that predictions of such human behavior are highly inaccurate and worthless beyond a very short period of time. Strategic planning is necessary precisely because we cannot predict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A stronger reason why forecasting is not strategic planning is that forecasting always tries to figure out the most likely path of events, or preferably a range of probabilities. However, the issue of entrepreneurship is a unique event that will change the possibilities. The startup world is not a physical world, it&#8217;s a social world. In fact, the core contribution of entrepreneurship is to promote a unique event or launch a unique innovation that changes an economic, social or political situation. The reward for this contribution is itself profit.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">That&#8217;s what Xerox did when it developed and sold copiers in the 1950s. <\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Mobile home entrepreneurs did the same thing in the &#8217;60s. At that time, the trailer became a new type of permanent fixed housing, almost the entire United States low-cost housing market. In the &#8217;50s, Rachel Carson&#8217;s book Silent Spring was published, a unique event that changed the entire human attitude to the environment. In the social and political spheres, this is exactly what civil rights leaders did in the 1960s, and it is exactly what women&#8217;s rights leaders did in the early 1970s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because entrepreneurs mess with the probabilities on which predictions are based, predictions do not help planners who are trying to figure out the future direction of their organizations; Forecasts are also of little use to planners who want to revolutionize or change the way people work and live.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Strategic planning is not about future decisions, but about the future of current decisions<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Decisions exist only in the present. The question for strategic decision-makers is not what their organisation should do tomorrow, but what must we do today to prepare for an uncertain future? What future must be included in current thinking and action, what time horizon must we consider, and how can we use this information to make sound decisions now?  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A decision is a time machine that synchronizes a large number of different time spans into one time-now. We are only now beginning to understand this. Still, we tend to plan for what we decide to do in the future. It may be fun, but it&#8217;s useless. We can only make decisions now, but we can&#8217;t make decisions just for now. The most expedient and opportunistic decisions, not to mention the decision not to make a decision at all, can bind us for a long time, even permanently and irretrievably.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Strategic planning is not an attempt to eliminate risk entirely<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>It is not even an attempt to minimize risk. Such an attempt would only lead to irrational and unlimited risks and would inevitably lead to disaster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economic activity is the investment of present resources into the future, that is, into highly uncertain expectations. The nature of economic activity is to take risks. An important economic theory, Boehm-Bawerk&#8217;s Law, proves that only through greater uncertainty, that is, greater risk, can existing means of production produce higher economic benefits.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Second, what is strategic planning<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We can now try to define strategic planning. Strategic planning is an ongoing process that involves: systematically making current decisions that take risks, and knowing as much as possible about the future of those decisions; Systematically organizing the efforts needed to implement these decisions; The results of these decisions are measured against original expectations through structured, systematic feedback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Let go of the past<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Planning should start from the enterprise&#8217;s goal. For each target area, the question must be asked: &#8220;What must we do now to achieve our future goals?&#8221; In order to achieve future goals, the first thing to do is to &#8220;let go of the past.&#8221; Most planning involves only new things that must be done, such as new products, new processes, new markets, and so on. But the key to doing something different in the future is to let go of what is no longer productive, old, obsolete.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So the first step in planning is to ask each activity, product, process, or market the question, &#8220;If we didn&#8217;t invest the resources now, would we be in it?&#8221; If the answer is no, the next question is: &#8220;How can we exit, and exit quickly?&#8221;  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Systematically letting go of the past is a plan in itself &#8211; and is appropriate for many businesses. It forces people to think and act, frees up people and money to invest in new things, and creates the will to act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, a plan that prescribes only new things to be done, and no old things to be abandoned, is unlikely to be fruitful. It will always be a plan, never a reality. However, the long-term plans of most businesses (and, more often, government agencies) make no mention of discarding past decisions, which is perhaps the main reason why such plans go nowhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What new things do we have to do: When<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The next step in planning is to answer the question: &#8220;What new and different things must we do?&#8221; When do you do it?&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In every project there are areas where it seems necessary to work harder on what is already being done. However, it is wiser to assume that what we are already doing will never meet the needs of the future. But &#8220;what must we do?&#8221; is only half the problem. Just as important is &#8220;when?&#8221;, which defines when to start a new task.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, there are &#8220;short term&#8221; and &#8220;long term&#8221; aspects to every decision. In the case of investing in a steel plant, it takes five years from the start of the project to the earliest possible time to bear fruit (start producing finished steel), so five years is the short term for this decision. It takes 20 years or more to recover the plant investment and its compound interest, so 20 years is the long term for decision-making. The long term of a decision is the length of time that the original decision needs to continue to be valid, including in terms of market, process, technology, and site.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">But it is pointless to talk about short &#8211; and long-term planning. <\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>There were plans that led to the current actions, but they were real plans, real strategic decisions. There are plans that talk about future actions. But they are just dreams, or even excuses for not thinking, not planning, not taking action. The essence of planning is to make current decisions with an understanding of their future. It is the future that determines the time span, not the time span that determines the future.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Things that take a long time to bear fruit must be started as soon as possible. Therefore, long-term planning requires an understanding of the future: &#8220;What must we do now if we want to achieve something in the future?&#8221; What can&#8217;t be done if we don&#8217;t invest resources now?&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To repeat a commonly used example:. If we know that it will take 99 years for Douglas fir in the northwestern United States to grow to pulp size. Then the only way to supply Douglas fir for pulp after 99 years is to start planting trees now. Maybe someone will invent an auxin, but if we&#8217;re in the paper business, we can&#8217;t expect that to happen. If the raw material of the paper mill is Douglas fir, then its planning cannot only be concerned with 20 years. But must consider 99 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">There are also decisions that are ridiculously long even after five years. <\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>If we were in the business of buying goods in bulk that others were selling at a loss and then auctioning them off. The next week&#8217;s clearance sale would be the long-term future. Anything longer term is usually irrelevant to us. Therefore, the nature of the enterprise and its decisions determines the time span of planning.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The time span is not fixed or given. In the planning process, the decision about time is itself a risky decision, which to a large extent determines the allocation of resources and efforts, and determines the risk taken. You can never repeat it too often that postponing a decision is itself a risky and often irreversible decision. To a large extent, the time decision determines the characteristics and nature of the enterprise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To sum up, it is essential in strategic planning to: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, to work systematically and purposefully in order to achieve goals. Second, planning begins with abandoning the past as part of a systematic effort to achieve future goals. Third, we need to find new ways to achieve our goals, rather than thinking that trying harder to do the same thing is enough. Finally, we need to think deeply about the time factor and ask the question, &#8220;When do we have to start working to get results on time?&#8221;  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Third, turn everything into work<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless it is translated into concrete work, no matter how well the plan is done. It is only some good wishes. The test of a plan is whether management is actually committing resources and taking action to achieve results in the future. Otherwise, there are only promises and hopes, not plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A plan must be tested by asking managers the question, &#8220;Which of your best people are you putting into this job right now?&#8221; If the manager counters (as most managers do), &#8220;I can&#8217;t get my best people out right now.&#8221; Only after they&#8217;ve done the job at hand can I get them to start preparing for tomorrow.&#8221; By saying this, the manager is in effect admitting that he has no plan, and that he does need one. Because the purpose of planning is precisely to reveal where scarce resources &#8211; and good people are the scarcest of resources &#8211; should be spent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Translating planning into work implies not only the need for someone to undertake the work. But also responsibility, deadlines and the measurement of results. That is, feedback on the results of the work and the planning process itself.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">In strategic planning, measurement raises some serious questions, especially conceptual ones. <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>However, precisely because what we measure and how we measure it determines what we think is appropriate, and thus what we see and what we (and others) do, measurement is extremely important in the planning process. It is particularly important that we find ways to incorporate expectations into planning decisions (and to get a clearer picture of the significant deviations in time and value) so that we know early on whether they will actually be met. Otherwise, we can&#8217;t plan. Without feedback, there is no method of self-control from the actual event back into the planning process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Managers cannot decide whether they want to make long-term decisions that involve taking risks. Because making such decisions is the manager&#8217;s job. Managers simply have the right to decide whether they are making such decisions responsibly or irresponsibly, trying to take a reasonable chance of success, or simply guessing. Because the decision-making process is essentially a rational one. And because the effectiveness of entrepreneurial decision-making depends on the understanding and voluntary efforts of others, the more rational, organized, and based on knowledge rather than prophecy, the more responsible it is and the more likely it is to work. However, the ultimate result of decision-making is not knowledge, but strategy. 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