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 <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/CXOUNION\u65b0\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Harvest Fund General Manager Jing Lei: Opportunities and challenges of long-term fund management under the current situation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Recently, the Global Wealth Management Forum 2023 Shanghai Suhewan Conference was held in Jing &#8216;an District, Shanghai. With the theme of &#8220;Financial Support for Economic Recovery and Global Cooperation&#8221;, the conference has invited governments, financial regulators, sovereign wealth funds, representative international and domestic financial institutions and renowned scholars to conduct in-depth exchanges on issues of common concern to all parties in the global economic and financial field, hoping to continuously enhance international mutual understanding, trust and cooperation under the current complex environment. Jing Lei, General Manager of Harvest Fund, delivered a speech at the &#8220;Opportunities and Challenges of Long-term Money Management under the current Situation&#8221; forum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jinglei provides a comprehensive understanding of the long-term money management opportunities and challenges of the current situation. First, he said, the world is facing a high interest rate environment, represented by U.S. debt, now and into next year, and we are facing an era of shrinking risk appetite around the world, and several factors driving inflation are still in place. In terms of opportunities, he said that the understanding and cognition of domestic policy concepts is a core competence that must be possessed in the future development of long-term asset management, and the core point of long-term money management is to develop around fundamentals, around market behavior and around all global asset management areas. Finally, he pointed out that asset management institutions must see the challenges and opportunities facing the future, and promote the direction of data, intelligence, and digital intelligence.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">First of all, the world is facing a high interest rate environment represented by US Treasuries at present and into next year, which will affect the core dimensions of various markets and various assets around the world. <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>From the historical data, the 1970s and 1980s also faced high inflation and high interest rates. Beginning in 1970 and continuing through the 1980s, dollar rate increases were maintained at very high levels. The U.S. CPI rose from 2% to 6% during 1965-1970, and from 6% to 8% during 1971-1975. Influenced by geopolitics, the CPI in the United States climbed from 8 percent to 13 percent between 1977 and 1981. After that, from 1990 to 2016, globalization accelerated, the inflation ladder went down, and the US debt continued to decline, bringing investors&#8217; risk appetite to rise. From 2016 to 2021, the anti-globalization began, and its landmark event was Brexit in 2016, after which the Federal Reserve&#8217;s balance sheet was terminated by the epidemic, and with the expansion of the epidemic, global inflation began to rise. Since April 2022, the Federal Reserve has resumed the rate hike cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">We are in an era of shrinking risk appetite around the world. <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the pace of this round of Fed rate hikes, the current market expects the Fed to raise interest rates until the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter of next year, and the ten-year Treasury bonds are expected to be basically close to the top. But these are current expectations, and it is unclear whether they will hold as the overall economic situation changes next year. As mentioned by many speakers, there are still several factors driving the rise in inflation. First, the trend of anti-globalization continues, the global industrial chain and supply chain are restructured, overseas economies are shifting from focusing on efficiency to focusing on security, supply is shrinking in the short term, and prices are easy to go up but not down. Second, the rise of populism, geopolitical risks continue to rise, and the dividends of peace to trade and production decline. Third, the aging of major economies is accelerating, and the labor force population has entered a period of sharp decline. Fourth, consecutive years of fiscal expansion in major economies, fiscal easing and monetary overshoot combined with the aforementioned factors may prolong the period of high inflation. With the rise of US bond interest rates, during the period from 2015 to 2022, the proportion of equity asset allocation of US enterprise annuity decreased from 58% to 47%, and the proportion of basic asset allocation of bonds and underlying assets dominated by fixed income increased from 29% to 52%. From a global perspective, these risk-free rates are very good rates, but next year global assets may face some unprecedented challenges when exchange rates are included.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">In terms of opportunities<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>In terms of opportunities, from the perspective of the domestic situation, in the past, the measures and concepts of government policies were viewed from the actual economic operation, but since the 18th National Congress, the 19th and 20th National Congresses have more clearly expounded the policy concepts of the government, and also affected the government&#8217;s measures, and then affected the operation of the entire economy. The understanding and cognition of domestic policy concepts is a core ability that must be possessed in the future development of long-term asset management, and the role of this ability is becoming increasingly prominent. From the perspective of decision allocation, classic asset allocation should be from a single asset to multiple assets, and then move forward with multiple assets, and strive for better returns or risk-return cost performance through the creation of capabilities. The choice of asset allocation is an important factor affecting asset returns, and more attention should be paid to the allocation of structural strategies rather than strategic and tactical asset allocation. If the structure is selected correctly, the cost performance ratio of risk returns will certainly be obtained, otherwise, even if the asset allocation of major categories is correct, the returns and risks may not match. In the face of future risks, especially systemic risks as a whole, positivity should be more important than accurate forecasting. The core point of long-term money management is to develop around fundamentals, around market behavior, and around all global asset management areas, and to re-organize and build macro scenarios based on these core elements, so as to increase the understanding of domestic capital markets. In this way, we can not repeat the past history and deal with market fluctuations more calmly. In terms of strong risk management, with the increasing volatility of market structure, traditional assets continue to evolve new risk-return characteristics, and the rapidly expanding asset management product camp requires precision and iterative risk management to achieve product plasticity. At this time, the effectiveness and discipline of risk management by asset management institutions are increasingly important. Only with a strong risk management ability, in order to better complete the customer&#8217;s risk return cost-effective target.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, as an asset management institution, it can no longer continue the original concept of relying on a single person and a single fundamental, and it must see the challenges and opportunities faced by asset management institutions in the future, and promote it around the direction of data, intelligence and digital intelligence. Now that we have entered the digital era, the application of data plays an irreplaceable role in investment and research decision-making and risk management. Further to the number of intelligent, now all the global asset management institutions are making a large model, I believe that the number of intelligent ability of asset management institutions will be realized in the next 3-5 years. For investment strategies, it is necessary to focus on macro and strategic scenarios, local computability, data as the core basis, computing power of the platform and models, etc., so that all the original investment research can be transformed from high-quality information into high-quality decisions, so as to continuously improve the win rate of investment decisions and better create sustainable returns for customers. 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