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UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u4ece\u903b\u8f91\u4e0a\u8bb2\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u8fbe\u523065%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5916\u5faa\u73af\u4e3a\u4e3b\uff1b35%\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5185\u5faa\u73af\u4e3a\u4e3b\u3002\u201d\u9ec4\u5947\u5e06\u8bf4\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u8ba9\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\u603b\u989d\u5360GDP\u6bd4\u91cd\u4e0b\u964d\u523035%\u4ee5\u5185\uff0c\u8ba9\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5faa\u73af\u529b\u5ea6\u5360\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u65b0\u683c\u5c40\u3002\u201d\u9ec4\u5947\u5e06\u5c06\u201c\u53cc\u5faa\u73af\u201d\u5177\u4f53\u5230\u4e24\u4e2a\u5faa\u73af\u7684\u6bd4\u91cd\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c2016\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8fdb\u51fa\u53e3\u8d38\u6613\u603b\u989d\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u964d\u5230\u4e86GDP\u603b\u91cf\u768432%\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e866\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u201d 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style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO 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has-medium-font-size\">\u8c08\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u91cd\u5927\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ecd\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4e3b\u529b\u519b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fdd\u6301\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u7a33\u5b9a\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u9ec4\u5947\u5e06\u8ba4\u4e3a\u9700\u5728\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u8fdb\u884c\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u6539\u9769\u3002\u201c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u7684\u4e3b\u529b\u519b\u3002\u201d\u9ec4\u5947\u5e06\u8bf4\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u52a8\u80fd\u7684\u8f6c\u6362\u3002<\/strong>\u9ec4\u5947\u5e06\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb20\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u9760\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u62c9\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u8d22\u653f\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u96be\u4ee5\u4e3a\u7ee7\u3002\u201c\u5982\u679c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fc7\u53bb20\u5e74\u6bcf\u5e74\u67098\u4e2a\u70b9\u7684\u589e\u957f\u7387\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u6709\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a2\u4e2a\u70b9\u3001\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u62c9\u52a8\u7684\u3002\u201d\u9ec4\u5947\u5e06\u7ee7\u7eed\u8bf4\u9053\uff0c\u4eca\u540e\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u6ca1\u8fd9\u4e48\u9ad8\u7684\u52a8\u80fd\u4e86\u3002\u9700\u8981\u5bfb\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u957f\u70b9\uff0c\u8981\u628a\u6269\u5927\u5185\u9700\u6218\u7565\u540c\u6df1\u5316\u4f9b\u7ed9\u4fa7\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u6539\u9769\u6709\u673a\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u3002<mark 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style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u8fd93\u4ebf\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u4eba\u7fa4\u8981\u6210\u4e3a\u4e2d\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u4eba\u7fa4\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6574\u4e2a\u7ed3\u6784\u5c31\u7ffb\u8fc7\u6765\u4e86\u3002\u201d\u9ec4\u5947\u5e06\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u6d88\u8d39\u62c9\u52a8GDP\u589e\u957f\u589e\u52a010\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u7684\u5173\u952e\u6027\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/CXOUNION\u65b0\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Huang Qifan&#8217;s latest speech: China&#8217;s economy has passed the rapids<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Huang Qifan: China&#8217;s economy has crossed the turbulent waters and entered a new journey<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>On the morning of December 2, the opening ceremony of the 2023 &#8220;Understanding China&#8221; International Conference (Guangzhou) was held. Huang Qifan, Executive Vice Chairman of the Academic Committee and former Mayor of Chongqing, delivered a keynote speech at the meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his speech, Huang Qifan talked about the three major positive changes in China&#8217;s economic operation in the past decade through a series of data. He pointed out that the Chinese economy has passed a series of turbulent waters and entered a new journey of Chinese-style modernization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Change 1: The export trade structure has improved, and the &#8220;new three&#8221; support the new pattern of foreign trade<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Huang Qifan pointed out that the high-quality development of China&#8217;s economy has been further consolidated in the past decade. The export trade is reflected in the obvious improvement of the structure.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More than a decade ago, 30% of China&#8217;s total export trade of US $1 trillion was mechanical and electrical products, and 70% was labor-intensive light textile products. &#8220;With the promotion of the transformation and upgrading of China&#8217;s manufacturing industry and the high-quality development of export trade, China&#8217;s position in the global industrial division of labor system is constantly improving, and the trend of exporting high-end and high value-added products is obvious.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nowadays, the proportion of labor-intensive products in China&#8217;s exports has dropped significantly to less than 10%. &#8220;The corresponding proportion of high-tech exports increased from 30 percent to 90 percent last year. &#8216;A billion pairs of socks for a plane&#8217; is history.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The new three kinds of foreign trade (note: high-tech, high value-added, leading green transformation products) are supporting the new pattern of China&#8217;s foreign trade.&#8221; This year, China has become the world&#8217;s largest auto exporter.&#8221; Facing the future, Huang Qifan said that China&#8217;s export structure and international terms of trade will also have new and higher quality and efficiency improvement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Change 2: The scale of foreign investment has increased year by year, and China has become a gravitational field of global resource factors<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Huang Qifan shows the growth situation of China&#8217;s attracting foreign investment from different time dimensions. He said that between 2000 and 2010, due to China&#8217;s accession to the WTO, the export-oriented economy developed rapidly, and the average annual foreign investment in 10 years was about 120 billion US dollars. In the most recent decade, from 2012 to 2022, China introduced an average of about $140 billion of foreign investment per year. In the last five years from 2017 to 2022, the actual annual foreign investment in China was 157 billion US dollars, higher than the previous decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During the three years of the epidemic from 2020 to 2022, the international community originally thought that the inconvenience caused by the epidemic and the trade war initiated by the United States, combined with the geopolitical impact, would lead to a lower scale of foreign investment in China than in the past. &#8220;But in reality, in the three years from 2020 to 2022, the actual inflow of foreign investment into China is an average of $170 billion per year.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Huang Qifan further put out more data, last year, when the epidemic was greatly affected and the economic upward development was expected to be poor, the actual amount of foreign investment in China was 180 billion US dollars. &#8220;This is the highest number of foreign investment in the past 40 years of reform and opening up.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Huang Qifan explained that the reason is very simple, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the interruption of natural gas in Europe, the price of natural gas has tripled, and European countries, including Germany and France, are short of gas and oil, and their development is unstable. So last year, European countries, especially Germany and France, increased their investment in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Huang Qifan said that this is a special phenomenon. The logic behind this phenomenon is that China has formed a hyperscale market. Thanks to its super-large market, China &#8220;can effectively spread manufacturing procurement costs, research and development costs, sales costs, logistics costs, fixed costs, investment costs.&#8221;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Huang Qifan believes that even if China&#8217;s current labor costs are rising, the reduction of the above six costs makes China&#8217;s manufacturing cost 30% to 40% lower than the international average cost, which forms a new competitiveness of China&#8217;s manufacturing industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Huang Qifan concluded that there are two main modes of foreign investment in China, namely &#8220;selling in the place of origin&#8221; and &#8220;selling in the place of origin&#8221;. The former is produced in China and sold in China; The latter is manufactured in China and sold abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Change 3: The formation of the &#8220;double cycle pattern&#8221;, through the rapids and treacherous waters, into the new journey of Chinese modernization<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The formation of the &#8220;new development pattern with the domestic great cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other&#8221; is the third change. In his speech, Huang Qifan reviewed the three major stages of economic cycle that China has gone through.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before 1980, influenced by the international environment, China&#8217;s economy basically relied on internal circulation development in a closed environment. From 1980 to 2010, China was dominated by an external cycle of &#8220;great import and great export&#8221;. &#8220;Its symbol is that before 1980, China&#8217;s total imports and exports accounted for less than 10% of GDP.&#8221; From 1980 to 2010, the total value of imports and exports rose to 65 percent of GDP.&#8221;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Logically speaking, this proportion reaches more than 65%, that is, the external cycle is dominated; Below 35 percent, internal circulation is dominant.&#8221; Huang Qifan said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Let the share of total imports and exports in GDP fall to less than 35 percent, and let the domestic economic cycle account for more than two-thirds, this is our new pattern.&#8221; Huang Qifan will &#8220;double cycle&#8221; specific to the proportion of the two cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;In 2016, China&#8217;s total import and export trade fell to 32 percent of GDP. It took us six years.&#8221; Huang Qifan said that, as a result, the trade war, foreign investment withdrawal, geopolitics and other reactions in the country&#8217;s economic data in recent years &#8220;have not changed directly.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2016, that figure was 32 percent; In 2022, the figure is 33%. &#8220;This shows the resilience and stability of the Chinese economy.&#8221; Huang Qifan said, &#8220;Then, the United States launched a trade war, &#8216;killing 1,000 enemies, self-loss of 800&#8217;, has not played a role in our &#8216;1,000&#8217;, but has caused a serious impact on itself.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the trade war had happened in 2010, &#8220;the trade war and the high proportion of our total imports and exports would have collided directly, which would have caused a big shock to the Chinese economy.&#8221; Huang Qifan said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;After the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China put forward a new normal of the national economy, proposed supply-side structural reform, no longer import and export as the main driver of economic growth, economic growth from 12 to 13 percent, down to 8 to 9 percent, 7 to 8 percent, 6 to 7 percent,&#8221; and now it is about 5 percent. Huang Qifan believes that this is an important adjustment of the economic pattern, that is, our new pattern of internal circulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;We have formed a new pattern in which the internal cycle dominates and the domestic and international cycles reinforce each other.&#8221; Huang Qifan said that in the next 10 to 20 years, China&#8217;s total imports and exports will remain at about one-third of GDP.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;We can say that after the 18th National Congress of the Party, the three major strategies we proposed to deepen the supply-side structural reform, build a national unified large market, and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern have made significant achievements, successfully driving the Chinese economy through a torrent of rapids and into a new journey of Chinese-style modernization.&#8221; The future of high-quality development of the Chinese economy is promising.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Talking about major reforms in three areas, China will remain the main force for world economic growth in the future<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>In order to maintain high-quality development and steady growth of the Chinese economy, Huang Qifan believes that major reforms are needed in three aspects. &#8220;China will continue to be the main force for world economic growth in the future.&#8221; Huang Qifan said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, the transformation of economic growth drivers. Huang Qifan said that over the past 20 years, China&#8217;s model of relying on real estate to drive economic growth and increase fiscal revenue is unsustainable. &#8220;If we&#8217;ve had eight points of growth a year for the last 20 years, that&#8217;s almost two points, a third of it, driven by real estate.&#8221; Huang Qifan continued that real estate may not have such a high momentum in the future. We need to find new growth areas and integrate the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Huang Qifan turned his attention to car consumption. For example, he said that China&#8217;s annual car sales rank first in the world, but it has maintained annual sales of about 27 million units for five consecutive years, which seems to have reached the ceiling, and it is important to explore the possibility of continuing to go up.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He believes there is still a gap between car ownership in China and other middle-income and rich countries in the world. &#8220;Car ownership per 100 people is 21 percent in China, about 40 percent in middle-income countries, and 60-70 percent in rich countries.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this case, Huang Qifan believes that it is possible to double the number of cars owned by 100 people in China to 40%, which will largely drive GDP growth, but also drive the development of parking lots, all kinds of roads, and the construction of infrastructure such as charging piles and energy storage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, we will promote foreign trade. &#8220;This is an important entry point for realizing the mutual promotion of the domestic and international double cycles and building a new development pattern.&#8221; Huang Qifan said that the report of the 20th National Congress of the Party proposed that the domestic and foreign trade integration of our country should form an integrated ecology from the system. At present, China&#8217;s foreign trade is significantly different from domestic trade in tax policies, settlement methods, quality standards, marketing methods, regulatory standards and other aspects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Third, we will gradually increase the share of disposable income in GDP. Huang Qifan pointed out that at present, the proportion of disposable income in GDP in our country is relatively low compared with the global scale. &#8220;We need to build a new development pattern, and in the future, consumption-driven GDP growth will increase from the current 30 percent to 50 percent.&#8221;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, he pointed out that increasing this proportion is not by direct cash distribution, but by adjusting the income distribution structure, and the key is to increase the number of middle-income people, so that the current 400 million middle-income people can double in the next decade to 800 million middle-income people. 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