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UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u9700\u6c42\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5546\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u56f0\u96be\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u51fa\u73b0\u503a\u52a1\u8fdd\u7ea6\uff0c\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u9690\u6027\u503a\u52a1\u9700\u8981\u9010\u6b65\u5316\u89e3\u3002\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u6548\u679c\u6b63\u5728\u9010\u6b65\u663e\u73b0\u3002\u76f8\u4fe1\u8fd8\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5927\u578b\u5546\u4e1a\u94f6\u884c\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u57fa\u672c\u5065\u5eb7\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u6d88\u5316\u503a\u52a1\u98ce\u9669\u9700\u8981\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u5168\u5c40\u6027\u503a\u52a1\u5371\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u5c06\u662f\u9632\u8303\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u770b\u6cd5\u662f\u8c28\u614e\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5e94\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u65e2\u7136\u662f\u5371\u673a\u603b\u6709\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e00\u9762\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u90fd\u6709\u5168\u7403\u5916\u6ea2\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u9700\u8981\u5404\u56fd\u901a\u529b\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u9632\u8303\u53d1\u751f\u5371\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/CXOUNION\u65b0\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Lou Jiwei: Overall thinking on the economic situation in 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The main risks of China&#8217;s debt crisis are insufficient demand for real estate, liquidity difficulties of some real estate companies, and even debt defaults. The hidden debts of local governments need to be gradually resolved. The year ahead will be crucial in preventing a financial crisis, and my overall view is cautiously optimistic. At the same time, it should be noted that since crises always have an unpredictable side and a global spillover, all countries need to work together to prevent crises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right\">&#8212; Lou Jiwei<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The coming year will be crucial for preventing a financial crisis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>By Lou Jiwei |<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Constrained by a series of negative factors, the global economy is currently in a weak recovery state. These constraints mainly include five aspects:<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, since five years ago, anti-globalization has been rampant, and populism, nationalism and protectionism have been on the rise around the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Global industrial and supply chains are being restructured and are no longer allocated according to the principle of comparative benefits, which loses efficiency and is not conducive to economic recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, the outbreak of epidemics in the 21st century has exerted pressure on the economies of all countries from both supply and demand. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has ceased to be an international health event, the scarring effect of three years is severe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Third, it has been more than a year and a half since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has caused global energy and food supply to be strained and prices to be high, which has played a role in promoting global inflation. At present, energy prices are gradually falling, but core inflation will return to normal, and it will take a process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fourth, since 2020, both European and American countries have adopted unprecedented expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to avoid economic recession. But inflation is rising fast. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have successively raised interest rates rapidly, and the inflation rate has gradually fallen, but it has also delayed the process of economic recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fifth, the China-Us relationship is the most important bilateral relationship in today&#8217;s world. For a long time, the relationship between China and the United States was one of competition and cooperation. Five years ago, China-Us relations turned a turning point, from competitive cooperation to competitive confrontation, which adversely affected global economic recovery. Recently, China and the US have set up two economic and financial working groups, hoping to establish an effective communication mechanism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of these negative factors mentioned above are long-term structural and need to be resolved in a long-term cycle, while economic recovery mainly relies on counter-cyclical short-term adjustment policies. For nearly a year and a half, major developed countries have been choosing between controlling high inflation and preventing economic recession by reducing the expansion of fiscal policy and tightening monetary policy. At present, it has produced a certain effect. Inflation has started to fall and the economy is not in recession, but structural weaknesses make it more likely in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China&#8217;s economic situation differs from that of developed countries. During the epidemic period, China did not adopt as aggressive a fiscal policy as developed countries, and the intensity of monetary policy expansion was much smaller than that of developed countries. The economy is in a recovery stage this year, with a growth rate of 5.5 percent in the first half of the year. However, we also face new difficulties and challenges, mainly due to insufficient domestic demand, difficulties in the operation of some enterprises, many hidden risks in key areas, a complex and severe external environment, especially insufficient real estate investment and sales, and hidden local debts that need to be gradually digested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The economic recovery in the second quarter was less than expected, and the macro economy showed marginal improvement in July and August. At present, some measures have been taken, such as increasing liquidity support for real estate enterprises, reducing the interest burden of home buyers, local hidden debt is resolved by the provincial level, and the state allocates a certain number of replacement debt lines to support, and so on. These problems are the accumulation of a certain period of time, and it takes a process to solve them.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All in all, I am cautiously optimistic about the prospects for a global economic recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Will global inflation and debt crises trigger a new round of financial crisis? I divide this topic into two aspects. The first is the effectiveness of the financial regulatory framework. Second, the impact of high inflation on the financial crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">First, a relatively stable financial regulatory framework has been established<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Improvements in financial regulatory systems are usually triggered by crises to prevent similar systemic risks from erupting again. However, as the economic and financial ecology continues to evolve, new crises will inevitably arise, and further improvement of the financial supervision system will be promoted. This is a process of circular evolution and continuous optimization. I will focus on China and the United States.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The United States has long pursued financial liberalism, and it is difficult to reach a consensus on strengthening financial regulation. At the beginning of this century, commercial banks securitized high-risk subprime loans and kept them in the financial market without any risk, superimposing various derivatives and leverage, which eventually led to the 2008 financial crisis. At the same time, the systemic crisis also produced consensus, and after more than a year of multiple rounds of compromise, the Dodd-Frank Act was passed, creating a regulatory framework to protect taxpayers and consumers and prevent financial crises from happening again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unlike the United States, China is dominated by indirect finance and its financial assets are concentrated in commercial banks, but it has long controlled interest rates and has weak supervision over the capital market. After 2013, in order to obtain high profits, banks put assets and risks off the table through various means, giving birth to various types of &#8220;shadow banking&#8221;, which is actually the &#8220;shadow of the bank&#8221;, and the financial assets launched are mainly &#8220;high-interest just-changed&#8221; products. High property prices and the expansion of hidden local debt have deeper causes, but these &#8220;high interest rate cash&#8221; products have also played a role. At the end of 2015, the central government successively proposed economic deleveraging, preventing and resolving financial risks, and returning finance to its source to serve the real economy, so as to hold the bottom line of no systemic financial crisis. After this, the new asset management regulations were formally implemented in 2018. This is a regulatory framework jointly formulated by a number of regulatory departments, which solves the problem of regulatory incoordination and regulatory arbitrage in the past. The new rules require that the assets of banks must be withdrawn from wealth management assets, and the asset management departments set up by banks must be subsidiaries, isolated from commercial banking institutions and isolated from risks. Wealth management assets must be net-worth, and no new &#8220;high-interest just-converted&#8221; products may be issued. It also provides for a three-year transition period to prevent systemic risks from being created as risks are resolved.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In May this year, the State Financial Supervision Administration was formally established to unify the supervision of the financial industry, except the securities industry, and due to the integration of the functions and personnel of various regulatory agencies, the unity of the regulatory framework and supervision capacity have been enhanced. While improving the financial regulatory framework, it has also expanded the reform and opening up of the financial sector, lifted the control over the interest rates of commercial banks, reformed the original approval system for listing in the stock market, and introduced a registration system on the basis of enhanced information disclosure. It can be said that China&#8217;s relatively stable financial regulatory framework has been established.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Second, the impact of high inflation on the financial crisis<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>At present, countries around the world are tightening monetary policy to curb high inflation, which may trigger the risk of financial crisis. Typical is the Silicon Valley bank bust. The assets of Silicon Valley Bank are mainly long-term securities, and the liabilities are mainly short-term deposits. The Fed continued to raise interest rates, resulting in a sharp decline in stock prices, Silicon Valley banks have a lot of floating losses. Within 24 hours of the announcement, there was a run, Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and all deposits were protected, breaking the chain of contagion to small and medium-sized banks. This typical event has the following implications: First, curbing high inflation, especially rapid interest rate hikes, will trigger sharp changes in asset prices, which will easily trigger financial risks. Second, the digital economy and digital society have made the speed of risk transmission unimaginable in the past. Third, the government must step in quickly to prevent financial risk events from turning into financial crises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In order to curb high inflation, developed countries have adopted rapid interest rate hikes. This leads to rapid outflows of capital from fragile countries, creating debt crises. But their small economies and low global externalities are unlikely to trigger a global financial crisis. The US debt crisis is at the other extreme, and a default on US debt would severely depress the US economy and likely trigger a global financial crisis. Although the debt ceiling was raised through a political compromise without a default, similar games are expected to play out again.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China is also at risk of a debt crisis. The main problem is the lack of real estate demand, some real estate companies have liquidity difficulties, and even debt defaults, and the hidden debt of local governments needs to be gradually resolved. As mentioned earlier, some measures have been taken and we can see that the effects are gradually showing. It is believed that further measures will be taken, and that the balance sheets of the large commercial banks are basically healthy. In any case, it will take a cycle to digest debt risk, but there will not be a general debt crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The year ahead will be crucial in preventing a financial crisis, and my overall view is cautiously optimistic. At the same time, it should be noted that since crises always have an unpredictable side and a global spillover, all countries need to work together to prevent crises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color has-small-font-size\">\u7531<a href=\"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/a>\u8f6c\u8f7d\u800c\u6210\uff0c\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e2d\u5173\u6751\u4ea7\u4e1a\u5347\u7ea7\u7814\u7a76\u9662\uff1b\u7f16\u8f91\/\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1aCXO UNIONCXO\u8054\u76df\u5c0fU\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-medium-font-size\">\u5982\u9700\u52a0\u5165<a href=\"http:\/\/weixin.qq.com\/r\/fxJxaVHE1AyrrRUK90dt\">CXO UNION\uff08CXO\u8054\u76df\uff09<\/a>\u9ad8\u7ba1\u793e\u7fa4\uff0c\u8bf7\u8054\u7cfb\u793e\u7fa4\u5c0f\u4f19\u4f34\u54e6~<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/CXOUNION\u65b0\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color has-small-font-size\">\u514d\u8d23\u58f0\u660e: \u672c\u7f51\u7ad9(<a href=\"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\">http:\/\/www.cxounion.cn\/<\/a>)\u5185\u5bb9\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u81ea\u539f\u521b\u3001\u5408\u4f5c\u5a92\u4f53\u4f9b\u7a3f\u548c\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u6295\u7a3f\uff0c\u51e1\u5728\u672c\u7f51\u7ad9\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5747\u4ec5\u4f9b\u53c2\u8003\u3002\u672c\u7f51\u7ad9\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u786e\u4fdd\u6240\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u53ca\u53ef\u9760\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6709\u5173\u8d44\u6599\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u53ca\u53ef\u9760\u6027\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u524d\u8bf7\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6838\u5b9e\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u81ea\u4e3b\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002\u672c\u7f51\u7ad9\u5bf9\u6709\u5173\u8d44\u6599\u6240\u5f15\u81f4\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u3001\u4e0d\u786e\u6216\u9057\u6f0f\uff0c\u6982\u4e0d\u8d1f\u4efb\u4f55\u6cd5\u5f8b\u8d23\u4efb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color has-small-font-size\">\u672c\u7f51\u7ad9\u520a\u8f7d\u7684\u6240\u6709\u5185\u5bb9(\u5305\u62ec\u4f46\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9650\u6587\u5b57\u3001\u56fe\u7247\u3001LOGO\u3001\u97f3\u9891\u3001\u89c6\u9891\u3001\u8f6f\u4ef6\u3001\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7b49) \u7248\u6743\u5f52\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u6240\u6709\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4f4d\u6216\u4e2a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u672c\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e2d\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u53ef\u80fd\u6d89\u5acc\u4fb5\u72af\u5176\u77e5\u8bc6\u4ea7\u6743\u6216\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u5b9e\u5185\u5bb9\u65f6\uff0c\u8bf7\u53ca\u65f6\u901a\u77e5\u672c\u7ad9\uff0c\u4e88\u4ee5\u5220\u9664\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u53d7\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u8d1f\u9762\u56e0\u7d20\u5236\u7ea6\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6b63\u5904\u4e8e\u5f31\u590d\u82cf\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5236\u7ea6\u56e0\u7d20\u4e3b\u8981\u5305\u62ec\u4e94\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff1a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13949,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[55],"class_list":["post-13946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-viewpoint","tag-55"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13946"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13946\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13953,"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13946\/revisions\/13953"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13949"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}