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$\"\"\/$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Chen Xiaosheng, chairman of Shenwan Lingxin: See the elephant in the living room of Sino-US economy in 2024<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Recently, Chen Xiaosheng, chairman of Shenwan Lingxin Fund, attended the China Wealth Management 50 Forum 2023 Annual Meeting (10th session) and delivered a keynote speech entitled “Elephant Turn Around – 2024 Asset Allocation Outlook” at the theme forum “Investment Outlook: 2024 Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy”. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chen Xiaosheng said that there is a very important proposition to do asset allocation: do not forget the existence of elephants in the living room. The elephant in our room may become more relaxed and friendly in 2024, mainly considering that China’s real estate investment is a very important variable affecting the macro economy, the central government’s determined leverage policy, and the direction of the new momentum is very clear. The opposite may be true in the US. He believes that asset allocation is an asset rotation, Shenwan Lingxin Fund believes that there are three wind blades of asset income rotation in 2024: the first wind blade is China’s financial enhancement efficiency and other consistency requirements; The second blade is the depletion of excess savings in the US market and the suppression of US finances; The third blade is the acceleration of digital trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The following is the full text of Chen Xiaosheng’s speech.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Markets, investment, research – see the elephant in the living room<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Today I share a topic called “Elephant Turns around”. We do investment, especially asset allocation, there is a very important proposition is not to forget the existence of the elephant in the living room, although we can not see it, but this elephant has always existed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One of the characteristics of an elephant is that when it is relaxed, its two large ears hang down, indicating that it is friendly with you; And when its ears are up and especially its tail is up, it is very nervous and may act aggressively. In fact, at the end of 2022, we observed that the ears and tail of the elephant were erect, especially when it came to equity markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China in 2024: Elephants drop their ears<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
For China’s asset allocation in 2024, rather than focusing solely on the final view, it is more important to observe what factors will drive changes in asset allocation prices in 2024. There is no doubt that the A-share market in 2023 is weak, there are internal and external reasons, but some marginal improvements are happening both inside and outside, especially the elephant in our room, from the tense state of 2022 May begin to gradually become relaxed and friendly. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are three factors affecting the asset allocation in 2024: First, China’s real estate investment is a very important variable affecting the macro economy, because the real estate has a very large pull on the upstream and downstream. Some time ago, I listened carefully to Dr. Gao Shanwen’s research on real estate investment, and he pointed out that as of today, the proportion of real estate investment in China’s GDP may be lower than that of Japan. Although Japan experienced the bursting of the real estate bubble for a decade or more in the 1990s, the impact of real estate on the whole economy is still huge. The proportion of real estate investment in Japan’s GDP can be maintained at about 7% for a long time, but the proportion of China’s real estate investment in GDP may only be 6.5% in 2023. By 2024, it could reach 5% if linear extrapolation is followed. What we need to think about is, will this trend continue? Is China worse than Japan in the last 30 years? Many studies have shown that urbanization rate is an important factor affecting China’s real estate. China’s urbanization rate is only about 65%, and there is still a lot of room for improvement. In addition, the stage of China’s economic growth is completely different from Japan’s, so real estate is a very important variable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Second, the factor affecting the Chinese market in 2024 – the central government’s determined leverage policy. In the first half of 2023 did not see signs of this policy, until July 24 after the Politburo meeting, the central government proposed a package of debt solutions, including a series of policies such as refinancing debt and bank loan replacement, indicating that only the central government in China has the ability to continue to increase leverage. Professor Bai Chongen’s research shows that in the past three years, the epidemic has made local governments bear a lot of burdens. According to his calculation, the total expenditure of local governments in the three-year epidemic has reached 5.8 trillion yuan. Although various special debts and subsidies have absorbed 2 trillion yuan, 3.6 trillion yuan has not been absorbed, which is a very heavy burden on local governments. If the central government can solve the burden of 3.6 trillion yuan, it is believed that the economic situation will be completely reversed in 2024. Moreover, we have seen that the Central Economic Work Conference has been very firmly stated that it is to solve the problem, rather than “lying flat”, especially after the Financial Supervision Administration has unified supervision and clear responsibilities, the problem solving speed of other financial platforms has been significantly accelerated, providing a good prospect for the Chinese market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Third, the direction of the new kinetic energy is clear. The new driving forces are summarized into two, the first is the digital economy, the development of the digital economy represented by intelligence and the green economy represented by new energy and low-carbon will drive the investment in China’s manufacturing industry. Shen Wanlingxin’s forecast of 6.8 per cent growth in China’s manufacturing investment in 2024 is probably higher than very many institutions in the market. We do not include infrastructure or real estate as the main increase in fixed asset investment in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Based on these three points, we believe that the ears of this “elephant” in the Chinese market in 2024 are hanging down, and it is relatively relaxed and friendly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In addition, there is a positive factor is the price, the people’s micro feeling is not to look at GDP but to look at the price, in the past few months China’s CPI, PPI is negative growth, negative price growth gives people the micro feeling is very bad, because the total income is declining, even if the actual GDP is growing, the total income is also declining. After the Central Economic Work Conference also put forward the target price level as a separate indicator, the situation will change in 2024. There is no way to go, and since there is a downward process, it will not go all the way down. 2024 is a leap year, with 366 days, and that extra day is worth looking forward to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
America in 2024: The elephant cocks its ears<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
About the American market, the United States is exactly the opposite, the elephant’s ears in the United States room may be upright, why?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
First, America’s excess savings will be almost exhausted by the beginning of 2024. The epidemic in China was overcome by a fiscal expenditure of 5.8 trillion yuan, but the epidemic in the United States was sustained by giving money to the people. But at the beginning of 2024, people’s excess savings will be used up, which is a very important constraint. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Second, the election in the United States, the game between the two parties led to the financial squeeze, some time ago, the Biden administration planned to give Ukraine another 60 billion US dollars in support, but did not approve, 14 billion US dollars in support to Israel, but not to Ukraine. America’s domestic finances will no doubt be constrained by the Republicans in 2024. Where does the US economy come from when its fiscal and excess savings are suppressed? This is the second factor. In addition, the bad debt rate of American residents, which is covered by excess savings, is increasing, and the increase in the collection rate of various credit cards in the United States is worthy of our vigilance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Corporate America is a different story. Although the US market is raising interest rates, the US corporate interest burden has not risen much in the last two or three years. American enterprises are very good at using all kinds of leverage, and they have locked their financing costs several years earlier. The rise in interest rates has little significant pressure on corporate profits, but the debt repayment pressure of American enterprises is very high in 2024 and 2025. As the pressure builds, the US economic picture in 2024 could change. For China, the short-term pressure on the RMB exchange rate may ease, and the interest rate differential between China and the United States is also narrowing recently, and the interest rate differential will definitely narrow in 2024, and the pressure on us will decrease after the narrowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Views on asset allocation in 2024<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Finally, based on the previous research, we share our views on asset allocation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
First, Shen Wanlingxin has developed its own investment research management platform – KAP system, and the forecast given by the five most important sellers in the market predicts that the GDP growth rate in 2024 is 5.0%. Our forecast may be slightly lower. There are only two indicators that have higher expectations than the market, one is manufacturing investment, we are optimistic about the growth of manufacturing investment brought by China’s new economic growth momentum in 2024, we forecast to 6.8%, and the market gave 6.1%. Second, regarding PPI and CPI, our price expectations may be higher than the market’s. For the first time in the history of the Central Economic Work Conference, real economic growth and prices were expressed separately. In the past, the money supply should match nominal growth, which is a very important policy signal. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Second, the gap between the equity risk premium of China A shares and US shares is the highest in history, and the market is optimistic about US stocks in 2023 and pessimistic about A shares in 2024, and it should be reversed. When the pendulum is at 6 o ‘clock we don’t know if the clock is going left or right, but when the pendulum is at 3 o ‘clock or 9 o ‘clock you can be sure it is going down. Compared with the stock market, the cost performance of the bond market is not superior, at present, the index of the relative cost performance of stocks and bonds is at a relatively high level, indicating that the current cost performance of the bond market relative to the stock market is still not outstanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To sum up, asset allocation is asset rotation, such as Merrill Lynch clock; The point of view of wheel motion is not important, the key is to discover the “wheel blade” and explore what is the driving force of the wind blade that drives this wheel motion. According to the judgment of the prosperity index of different types of assets developed by Shenwan Lingxin Fund, we believe that three wind blades constitute the rotation of asset returns in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The first leaf is China’s fiscal enhancement efficiency and other consistency requirements. The second blade is the depletion of excess savings in the US market and the suppression of US finances. The third blade is the acceleration of digital trade. On Black Friday in the United States in November, the four major platforms in China, including temu, Tiktok, SHEIN and AliExpress, were close to Amazon in Black Friday sales in the United States. China’s sales exports by digital trade platforms and Internet platforms have accounted for 5% of China’s exports in 2022, and it is believed that its growth rate will exceed all expectations in 2024. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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$\"\"\/$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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**\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e3a\u9648\u6653\u5347\u6f14\u8bb2\u5168\u6587\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n**
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\u56db\u3001\u5bf92024\u5e74\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u7684\u770b\u6cd5<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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\u7efc\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u505a\u8d44\u4ea7\u914d\u7f6e\u662f\u6709\u8d44\u4ea7\u8f6e\u52a8\u7684<\/strong>\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u7f8e\u6797\u65f6\u949f\uff1b\u8f6e\u52a8\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u5173\u952e\u662f\u8981\u53d1\u73b0\u201c\u8f6e\u52a8\u7684\u98ce\u53f6\u201d<\/strong>\uff0c\u63a2\u7a76\u63a8\u52a8\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8f6e\u52a8\u7684\u98ce\u53f6\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u6839\u636e\u7533\u4e07\u83f1\u4fe1\u57fa\u91d1\u81ea\u5df1\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u522b\u8d44\u4ea7\u7684\u666f\u6c14\u6307\u6570\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7531\u4e09\u7247\u98ce\u53f6\u6784\u6210\u4e862024\u5e74\u8d44\u4ea7\u6536\u76ca\u8f6e\u52a8<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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$\"\"\/$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Chen Xiaosheng, chairman of Shenwan Lingxin: See the elephant in the living room of Sino-US economy in 2024<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Recently, Chen Xiaosheng, chairman of Shenwan Lingxin Fund, attended the China Wealth Management 50 Forum 2023 Annual Meeting (10th session) and delivered a keynote speech entitled “Elephant Turn Around – 2024 Asset Allocation Outlook” at the theme forum “Investment Outlook: 2024 Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy”. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chen Xiaosheng said that there is a very important proposition to do asset allocation: do not forget the existence of elephants in the living room. The elephant in our room may become more relaxed and friendly in 2024, mainly considering that China’s real estate investment is a very important variable affecting the macro economy, the central government’s determined leverage policy, and the direction of the new momentum is very clear. The opposite may be true in the US. He believes that asset allocation is an asset rotation, Shenwan Lingxin Fund believes that there are three wind blades of asset income rotation in 2024: the first wind blade is China’s financial enhancement efficiency and other consistency requirements; The second blade is the depletion of excess savings in the US market and the suppression of US finances; The third blade is the acceleration of digital trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The following is the full text of Chen Xiaosheng’s speech.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Markets, investment, research – see the elephant in the living room<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Today I share a topic called “Elephant Turns around”. We do investment, especially asset allocation, there is a very important proposition is not to forget the existence of the elephant in the living room, although we can not see it, but this elephant has always existed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One of the characteristics of an elephant is that when it is relaxed, its two large ears hang down, indicating that it is friendly with you; And when its ears are up and especially its tail is up, it is very nervous and may act aggressively. In fact, at the end of 2022, we observed that the ears and tail of the elephant were erect, especially when it came to equity markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China in 2024: Elephants drop their ears<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
For China’s asset allocation in 2024, rather than focusing solely on the final view, it is more important to observe what factors will drive changes in asset allocation prices in 2024. There is no doubt that the A-share market in 2023 is weak, there are internal and external reasons, but some marginal improvements are happening both inside and outside, especially the elephant in our room, from the tense state of 2022 May begin to gradually become relaxed and friendly. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are three factors affecting the asset allocation in 2024: First, China’s real estate investment is a very important variable affecting the macro economy, because the real estate has a very large pull on the upstream and downstream. Some time ago, I listened carefully to Dr. Gao Shanwen’s research on real estate investment, and he pointed out that as of today, the proportion of real estate investment in China’s GDP may be lower than that of Japan. Although Japan experienced the bursting of the real estate bubble for a decade or more in the 1990s, the impact of real estate on the whole economy is still huge. The proportion of real estate investment in Japan’s GDP can be maintained at about 7% for a long time, but the proportion of China’s real estate investment in GDP may only be 6.5% in 2023. By 2024, it could reach 5% if linear extrapolation is followed. What we need to think about is, will this trend continue? Is China worse than Japan in the last 30 years? Many studies have shown that urbanization rate is an important factor affecting China’s real estate. China’s urbanization rate is only about 65%, and there is still a lot of room for improvement. In addition, the stage of China’s economic growth is completely different from Japan’s, so real estate is a very important variable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Second, the factor affecting the Chinese market in 2024 – the central government’s determined leverage policy. In the first half of 2023 did not see signs of this policy, until July 24 after the Politburo meeting, the central government proposed a package of debt solutions, including a series of policies such as refinancing debt and bank loan replacement, indicating that only the central government in China has the ability to continue to increase leverage. Professor Bai Chongen’s research shows that in the past three years, the epidemic has made local governments bear a lot of burdens. According to his calculation, the total expenditure of local governments in the three-year epidemic has reached 5.8 trillion yuan. Although various special debts and subsidies have absorbed 2 trillion yuan, 3.6 trillion yuan has not been absorbed, which is a very heavy burden on local governments. If the central government can solve the burden of 3.6 trillion yuan, it is believed that the economic situation will be completely reversed in 2024. Moreover, we have seen that the Central Economic Work Conference has been very firmly stated that it is to solve the problem, rather than “lying flat”, especially after the Financial Supervision Administration has unified supervision and clear responsibilities, the problem solving speed of other financial platforms has been significantly accelerated, providing a good prospect for the Chinese market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Third, the direction of the new kinetic energy is clear. The new driving forces are summarized into two, the first is the digital economy, the development of the digital economy represented by intelligence and the green economy represented by new energy and low-carbon will drive the investment in China’s manufacturing industry. Shen Wanlingxin’s forecast of 6.8 per cent growth in China’s manufacturing investment in 2024 is probably higher than very many institutions in the market. We do not include infrastructure or real estate as the main increase in fixed asset investment in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Based on these three points, we believe that the ears of this “elephant” in the Chinese market in 2024 are hanging down, and it is relatively relaxed and friendly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In addition, there is a positive factor is the price, the people’s micro feeling is not to look at GDP but to look at the price, in the past few months China’s CPI, PPI is negative growth, negative price growth gives people the micro feeling is very bad, because the total income is declining, even if the actual GDP is growing, the total income is also declining. After the Central Economic Work Conference also put forward the target price level as a separate indicator, the situation will change in 2024. There is no way to go, and since there is a downward process, it will not go all the way down. 2024 is a leap year, with 366 days, and that extra day is worth looking forward to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
America in 2024: The elephant cocks its ears<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
About the American market, the United States is exactly the opposite, the elephant’s ears in the United States room may be upright, why?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
First, America’s excess savings will be almost exhausted by the beginning of 2024. The epidemic in China was overcome by a fiscal expenditure of 5.8 trillion yuan, but the epidemic in the United States was sustained by giving money to the people. But at the beginning of 2024, people’s excess savings will be used up, which is a very important constraint. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Second, the election in the United States, the game between the two parties led to the financial squeeze, some time ago, the Biden administration planned to give Ukraine another 60 billion US dollars in support, but did not approve, 14 billion US dollars in support to Israel, but not to Ukraine. America’s domestic finances will no doubt be constrained by the Republicans in 2024. Where does the US economy come from when its fiscal and excess savings are suppressed? This is the second factor. In addition, the bad debt rate of American residents, which is covered by excess savings, is increasing, and the increase in the collection rate of various credit cards in the United States is worthy of our vigilance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Corporate America is a different story. Although the US market is raising interest rates, the US corporate interest burden has not risen much in the last two or three years. American enterprises are very good at using all kinds of leverage, and they have locked their financing costs several years earlier. The rise in interest rates has little significant pressure on corporate profits, but the debt repayment pressure of American enterprises is very high in 2024 and 2025. As the pressure builds, the US economic picture in 2024 could change. For China, the short-term pressure on the RMB exchange rate may ease, and the interest rate differential between China and the United States is also narrowing recently, and the interest rate differential will definitely narrow in 2024, and the pressure on us will decrease after the narrowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Views on asset allocation in 2024<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Finally, based on the previous research, we share our views on asset allocation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
First, Shen Wanlingxin has developed its own investment research management platform – KAP system, and the forecast given by the five most important sellers in the market predicts that the GDP growth rate in 2024 is 5.0%. Our forecast may be slightly lower. There are only two indicators that have higher expectations than the market, one is manufacturing investment, we are optimistic about the growth of manufacturing investment brought by China’s new economic growth momentum in 2024, we forecast to 6.8%, and the market gave 6.1%. Second, regarding PPI and CPI, our price expectations may be higher than the market’s. For the first time in the history of the Central Economic Work Conference, real economic growth and prices were expressed separately. In the past, the money supply should match nominal growth, which is a very important policy signal. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Second, the gap between the equity risk premium of China A shares and US shares is the highest in history, and the market is optimistic about US stocks in 2023 and pessimistic about A shares in 2024, and it should be reversed. When the pendulum is at 6 o ‘clock we don’t know if the clock is going left or right, but when the pendulum is at 3 o ‘clock or 9 o ‘clock you can be sure it is going down. Compared with the stock market, the cost performance of the bond market is not superior, at present, the index of the relative cost performance of stocks and bonds is at a relatively high level, indicating that the current cost performance of the bond market relative to the stock market is still not outstanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To sum up, asset allocation is asset rotation, such as Merrill Lynch clock; The point of view of wheel motion is not important, the key is to discover the “wheel blade” and explore what is the driving force of the wind blade that drives this wheel motion. According to the judgment of the prosperity index of different types of assets developed by Shenwan Lingxin Fund, we believe that three wind blades constitute the rotation of asset returns in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The first leaf is China’s fiscal enhancement efficiency and other consistency requirements. The second blade is the depletion of excess savings in the US market and the suppression of US finances. The third blade is the acceleration of digital trade. On Black Friday in the United States in November, the four major platforms in China, including temu, Tiktok, SHEIN and AliExpress, were close to Amazon in Black Friday sales in the United States. China’s sales exports by digital trade platforms and Internet platforms have accounted for 5% of China’s exports in 2022, and it is believed that its growth rate will exceed all expectations in 2024. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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