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Huang Yiping: Opening up is an important condition for promoting the development of new quality productive forces<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Recently, Huang Yiping, a member of the monetary Policy Committee of the Central bank and dean of the National School of Development of Peking University, expressed his views on how to develop new quality productivity at the CMF Seminar on macroeconomic hot issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Huang Yiping pointed out that opening up to the outside world is an important condition for promoting the development of new quality productivity. At the same time, we should face up to the problem of overcapacity in our country. The focus of industrial policy should be on the front end of the innovation chain, and do the following three things: First, actively use multilateral frameworks such as the WTO and RCEP to maintain an open, fair and transparent international trading system. Second, we need to gradually overcome macro imbalances, including excessive investment and insufficient consumption. Third, we will support innovation and the development of new quality productivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
First, opening up is an important condition for promoting the development of new quality productive forces<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
The development of new quality productivity is to improve the total factor productivity, and the key behind it is innovation, including scientific and technological innovation, economic innovation, enterprise innovation, industry innovation, business model innovation and other aspects of innovation. There are many factors that determine the development of innovation. According to Professor Michael E.Porter of Harvard University’s authoritative research on national innovation capacity, there are probably two types of factors that determine a country’s innovation capacity, one is the investment in innovation, including scientific research personnel, research and development funds, etc., and we have developed well in this area. Another important factor is the transformation of innovation input, which is influenced by a series of factors, such as the strength of intellectual property protection and the degree of activity of private enterprises. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
The openness of a country is another important factor affecting the conversion effect. In today’s world, few countries can independently develop all their technologies behind closed doors. The knowledge, technology and capabilities we use may need to be searched and combined worldwide. Even if we independently develop, we also need to learn from the experience of other countries in the world. Therefore, in the process of promoting the improvement of national innovation capacity and promoting the development of new quality productivity, it is very important to maintain a high level of openness. This is particularly important in today’s international context, as geopolitical conflicts increase and national security issues become particularly important. Maintaining national security is necessary, but if we want to promote high-quality economic development, we need to maintain openness at the same time, and not only to the Belt and Road countries and developing countries, but also to the developed countries is very important and even more important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Second, face up to the problem of overcapacity<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
There have been some new developments in China’s economic and trade relations recently. U.S. UnderSecretary of the Treasury Richard Chambeau expressed concern that China’s industrial policies could create massive overcapacity that could hit world markets. Also in February, the Office of the United States Trade Representative issued a report on China’s implementation of its WTO accession commitments in 2023, which bluntly pointed out that China’s overcapacity problem may be the biggest challenge facing the international trading system. In Europe, in February the European Union launched an investigation into transport equipment maker CRRC Qingdao Sifang on suspicion of using state subsidies to undercut rivals in bidding cases. In October 2023, the European Union launched a so-called investigation into Chinese electric vehicle exports, pointing to the issue of government subsidies. At the same time, unlike before, the corporate world has also become active. In February, the American Manufacturing Alliance released a report that analyzed whether cars or parts produced by Chinese companies entered the United States through Mexico, and what impact it would have on the United States if they entered the United States, and also proposed some protectionist policies. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
This series of things point to the problem of overcapacity in our industry, as well as the industrial policy behind it, often under the pretext of “maintenance” of the international trade order. We should recognize that this may be a very important part of the development of geopolitical and geo-economic contradictions, so we should resolutely respond to defend our right to maintain free trade and support the opening of the international trading system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, we must also consider whether it has triggered a new problem of overcapacity. In the past few decades of China’s economic development, there is indeed a contradiction of excess capacity, and there are probably two reasons for this contradiction. The first is caused by macro imbalances, with strong investment, insufficient consumption, and weak final demand. In my opinion, it is more important to maintain a relative ratio between the two driving forces. Only when there is enough investment to form new production capacity and corresponding consumption demand to absorb new production capacity can economic growth be sustainable. The second type of reason is the problem at the industry level, mainly reflected in the excessive concentration of resources in the country in some better products or emerging industries, which may lead to the production capacity of these industries in the short term, driving industrial development, but if there is no market to digest capacity in the short term, it will cause the problem of overcapacity. Therefore, I think we did have more or less excess capacity in the process of economic development in the past few decades, and with the rapid economic growth, the previous excess capacity was gradually digested. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
If there has been a problem of overcapacity in China during the 40 years of reform and opening up, why has it become a focus of international economic contradictions? One of the key reasons is that China has changed from a small country in the early days to a big country. The so-called small country means that the changes in our supply and demand relationship will not have a fundamental impact on the world market, and the increase or decrease of supply by a big country may affect the balance of the international market. The popular saying of the people is that today it has become that what we buy is expensive and what we sell is cheap, and when we increase supply, the price of the world market may be lowered. From the perspective of consumers, this is not a bad thing, but from the perspective of industrial structure, supply and demand shocks in large countries can cause political and economic problems. Therefore, the contradiction of overcapacity in our country has indeed always existed, in addition to geopolitics, this contradiction also has the impact of large economies, we can no longer simply digest the domestic excess capacity through a large number of exports without causing some countries to rebound. We need to take this situation seriously, if these so-called “investigations” and “accusations” really become a general wave of trade protectionism against Chinese products, it will be extremely detrimental to our next development, especially the development of innovation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Third, the focus of industrial policy should focus on the front end of the innovation chain<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
First, we should actively make use of multilateral frameworks such as the WTO and RCEP to maintain an open, fair and transparent international trading system. We need to be more proactive in promoting and using the World Trade Organization and regional trade agreements. Objectively speaking, our production of cheap and affordable electric vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic panels and other products may be beneficial to many developing countries, we should unite the vast number of developing countries and countries along the Belt and Road to jointly promote the multilateral framework and maintain an open international trading system. In response to criticism from Europe and the United States, in response to some unreasonable accusations, in the larger framework of our advocacy is to maintain an open world trading system. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Second, we need to gradually overcome macro imbalances, including excessive investment and insufficient consumption. Basically, the question is whether domestic consumer demand can be raised. Because in today’s international economic and political environment, China, as a big country, still expects to export most of its products to the world market, which is difficult. If our domestic consumer demand is greatly increased, then many new and traditional products can be converted to domestic sales. So domestic rebalancing is very important. There are many things that need to be done to boost domestic consumption, but there are some measures that can be done in the short term and some measures that will be effective in the long term. Structural measures may have cyclical effects, and increasing household income through improved income distribution and increased welfare support can also help raise overall consumption and close the gap between domestic supply and demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Third, we will support innovation and the development of new quality productivity. In emerging industries, we have encountered some bottlenecks in the past, so we need to develop some emerging industries on our own. At the same time, we actively use industrial policy to implement innovation. On the one hand, it is necessary to maintain openness, and on the other hand, it is necessary to consider whether in the process of supporting innovation, industrial policies can become more efficient and market-oriented, and more in line with the conditions of the international economic environment. For example, in the emerging industry, the development of the “new three” has made great achievements, but the photovoltaic industry has formed a huge excess capacity, such problems we may continue to repeat in the future. The reason behind this may be that the government points to an emerging industry, entrepreneurs go all out, the central government points in a direction, and local government financial institutions go all out. The advantage of this approach is that the industry in this area will improve comprehensively, but the disadvantage is that supporting innovation becomes a national, local, individual enterprises, and various institutions are doing, and in the end, it is easy to cause a huge concentration of resources in a few industries across the country. Therefore, we need innovation in all aspects, not in one area, and we need to consider whether innovation development can be more balanced and more efficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From the perspective of industrial policy, first, the focus of supporting innovation should be placed on the front end, on the part of innovation, rather than putting more resources on the production end. In other words, industrial policy should support technological breakthroughs, not capacity replication. Second, industrial policy should not restrict competition and make innovation and development more market-oriented. The government should focus on helping the industry overcome some so-called bottleneck areas and technologies, rather than helping some specific enterprises to develop. Third, the industrial policy should have an exit mechanism, the technology in the emerging field has completed a breakthrough, the enterprise has been able to smoothly produce, the government can not be unlimited subsidies. In the past, many infant industries in developing countries have existed for decades, and this lesson must be well learned. Fourth, local government financial institutions should not blindly follow one direction, everyone supports a certain industry, or even become a kind of political correctness, which will add up to a large macro imbalance. The practice of financial institutions making loans with the government’s industrial catalogue must be avoided. When local governments, financial institutions or state-owned enterprises support innovative activities, they must calculate economic accounts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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$\"\"\/$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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$\"\"\/$ <\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Huang Yiping: Opening up is an important condition for promoting the development of new quality productive forces<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Recently, Huang Yiping, a member of the monetary Policy Committee of the Central bank and dean of the National School of Development of Peking University, expressed his views on how to develop new quality productivity at the CMF Seminar on macroeconomic hot issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Huang Yiping pointed out that opening up to the outside world is an important condition for promoting the development of new quality productivity. At the same time, we should face up to the problem of overcapacity in our country. The focus of industrial policy should be on the front end of the innovation chain, and do the following three things: First, actively use multilateral frameworks such as the WTO and RCEP to maintain an open, fair and transparent international trading system. Second, we need to gradually overcome macro imbalances, including excessive investment and insufficient consumption. Third, we will support innovation and the development of new quality productivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
First, opening up is an important condition for promoting the development of new quality productive forces<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
The development of new quality productivity is to improve the total factor productivity, and the key behind it is innovation, including scientific and technological innovation, economic innovation, enterprise innovation, industry innovation, business model innovation and other aspects of innovation. There are many factors that determine the development of innovation. According to Professor Michael E.Porter of Harvard University’s authoritative research on national innovation capacity, there are probably two types of factors that determine a country’s innovation capacity, one is the investment in innovation, including scientific research personnel, research and development funds, etc., and we have developed well in this area. Another important factor is the transformation of innovation input, which is influenced by a series of factors, such as the strength of intellectual property protection and the degree of activity of private enterprises. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
The openness of a country is another important factor affecting the conversion effect. In today’s world, few countries can independently develop all their technologies behind closed doors. The knowledge, technology and capabilities we use may need to be searched and combined worldwide. Even if we independently develop, we also need to learn from the experience of other countries in the world. Therefore, in the process of promoting the improvement of national innovation capacity and promoting the development of new quality productivity, it is very important to maintain a high level of openness. This is particularly important in today’s international context, as geopolitical conflicts increase and national security issues become particularly important. Maintaining national security is necessary, but if we want to promote high-quality economic development, we need to maintain openness at the same time, and not only to the Belt and Road countries and developing countries, but also to the developed countries is very important and even more important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Second, face up to the problem of overcapacity<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
There have been some new developments in China’s economic and trade relations recently. U.S. UnderSecretary of the Treasury Richard Chambeau expressed concern that China’s industrial policies could create massive overcapacity that could hit world markets. Also in February, the Office of the United States Trade Representative issued a report on China’s implementation of its WTO accession commitments in 2023, which bluntly pointed out that China’s overcapacity problem may be the biggest challenge facing the international trading system. In Europe, in February the European Union launched an investigation into transport equipment maker CRRC Qingdao Sifang on suspicion of using state subsidies to undercut rivals in bidding cases. In October 2023, the European Union launched a so-called investigation into Chinese electric vehicle exports, pointing to the issue of government subsidies. At the same time, unlike before, the corporate world has also become active. In February, the American Manufacturing Alliance released a report that analyzed whether cars or parts produced by Chinese companies entered the United States through Mexico, and what impact it would have on the United States if they entered the United States, and also proposed some protectionist policies. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
This series of things point to the problem of overcapacity in our industry, as well as the industrial policy behind it, often under the pretext of “maintenance” of the international trade order. We should recognize that this may be a very important part of the development of geopolitical and geo-economic contradictions, so we should resolutely respond to defend our right to maintain free trade and support the opening of the international trading system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, we must also consider whether it has triggered a new problem of overcapacity. In the past few decades of China’s economic development, there is indeed a contradiction of excess capacity, and there are probably two reasons for this contradiction. The first is caused by macro imbalances, with strong investment, insufficient consumption, and weak final demand. In my opinion, it is more important to maintain a relative ratio between the two driving forces. Only when there is enough investment to form new production capacity and corresponding consumption demand to absorb new production capacity can economic growth be sustainable. The second type of reason is the problem at the industry level, mainly reflected in the excessive concentration of resources in the country in some better products or emerging industries, which may lead to the production capacity of these industries in the short term, driving industrial development, but if there is no market to digest capacity in the short term, it will cause the problem of overcapacity. Therefore, I think we did have more or less excess capacity in the process of economic development in the past few decades, and with the rapid economic growth, the previous excess capacity was gradually digested. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
If there has been a problem of overcapacity in China during the 40 years of reform and opening up, why has it become a focus of international economic contradictions? One of the key reasons is that China has changed from a small country in the early days to a big country. The so-called small country means that the changes in our supply and demand relationship will not have a fundamental impact on the world market, and the increase or decrease of supply by a big country may affect the balance of the international market. The popular saying of the people is that today it has become that what we buy is expensive and what we sell is cheap, and when we increase supply, the price of the world market may be lowered. From the perspective of consumers, this is not a bad thing, but from the perspective of industrial structure, supply and demand shocks in large countries can cause political and economic problems. Therefore, the contradiction of overcapacity in our country has indeed always existed, in addition to geopolitics, this contradiction also has the impact of large economies, we can no longer simply digest the domestic excess capacity through a large number of exports without causing some countries to rebound. We need to take this situation seriously, if these so-called “investigations” and “accusations” really become a general wave of trade protectionism against Chinese products, it will be extremely detrimental to our next development, especially the development of innovation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Third, the focus of industrial policy should focus on the front end of the innovation chain<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
First, we should actively make use of multilateral frameworks such as the WTO and RCEP to maintain an open, fair and transparent international trading system. We need to be more proactive in promoting and using the World Trade Organization and regional trade agreements. Objectively speaking, our production of cheap and affordable electric vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic panels and other products may be beneficial to many developing countries, we should unite the vast number of developing countries and countries along the Belt and Road to jointly promote the multilateral framework and maintain an open international trading system. In response to criticism from Europe and the United States, in response to some unreasonable accusations, in the larger framework of our advocacy is to maintain an open world trading system. CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Second, we need to gradually overcome macro imbalances, including excessive investment and insufficient consumption. Basically, the question is whether domestic consumer demand can be raised. Because in today’s international economic and political environment, China, as a big country, still expects to export most of its products to the world market, which is difficult. If our domestic consumer demand is greatly increased, then many new and traditional products can be converted to domestic sales. So domestic rebalancing is very important. There are many things that need to be done to boost domestic consumption, but there are some measures that can be done in the short term and some measures that will be effective in the long term. Structural measures may have cyclical effects, and increasing household income through improved income distribution and increased welfare support can also help raise overall consumption and close the gap between domestic supply and demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Third, we will support innovation and the development of new quality productivity. In emerging industries, we have encountered some bottlenecks in the past, so we need to develop some emerging industries on our own. At the same time, we actively use industrial policy to implement innovation. On the one hand, it is necessary to maintain openness, and on the other hand, it is necessary to consider whether in the process of supporting innovation, industrial policies can become more efficient and market-oriented, and more in line with the conditions of the international economic environment. For example, in the emerging industry, the development of the “new three” has made great achievements, but the photovoltaic industry has formed a huge excess capacity, such problems we may continue to repeat in the future. The reason behind this may be that the government points to an emerging industry, entrepreneurs go all out, the central government points in a direction, and local government financial institutions go all out. The advantage of this approach is that the industry in this area will improve comprehensively, but the disadvantage is that supporting innovation becomes a national, local, individual enterprises, and various institutions are doing, and in the end, it is easy to cause a huge concentration of resources in a few industries across the country. Therefore, we need innovation in all aspects, not in one area, and we need to consider whether innovation development can be more balanced and more efficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From the perspective of industrial policy, first, the focus of supporting innovation should be placed on the front end, on the part of innovation, rather than putting more resources on the production end. In other words, industrial policy should support technological breakthroughs, not capacity replication. Second, industrial policy should not restrict competition and make innovation and development more market-oriented. The government should focus on helping the industry overcome some so-called bottleneck areas and technologies, rather than helping some specific enterprises to develop. Third, the industrial policy should have an exit mechanism, the technology in the emerging field has completed a breakthrough, the enterprise has been able to smoothly produce, the government can not be unlimited subsidies. In the past, many infant industries in developing countries have existed for decades, and this lesson must be well learned. Fourth, local government financial institutions should not blindly follow one direction, everyone supports a certain industry, or even become a kind of political correctness, which will add up to a large macro imbalance. The practice of financial institutions making loans with the government’s industrial catalogue must be avoided. When local governments, financial institutions or state-owned enterprises support innovative activities, they must calculate economic accounts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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