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class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/CXOUNION\u65b0\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CAI Fang: Seeking solutions between change and invariance<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Change and unchange-the employment impact of artificial intelligence<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CAI Fang<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>People are accustomed to blind optimism in the face of ever-present, recurring, and time-and-again solved phenomena of economic history. Faced with the build-up of events, such as the build-up of irrationality and bubbles that preceded the financial crisis, blind optimists declare that &#8220;this time is different&#8221;; In the face of other events, people often use &#8220;this has happened before&#8221; as a reason for blind optimism, so that they fail to keep pace with The Times in understanding and action. The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment falls into the latter category. Foreknowledge ensures success. In the face of the possible impact of AI employment, some understanding needs to be clarified and several policy principles need to be established.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. This time is really different<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The impact of technological progress on employment has been the focus of society and research since the Industrial Revolution. Movements and trends of thought with the nature of &#8220;Luddism&#8221; have repeatedly appeared in various forms. However, whether it is from the cause to investigate the result, or from the essence to see the appearance, this time is really different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, this time it is not the spectre of technological unemployment, which has recurred throughout history, but the terminator, which could replace almost every occupation. From Musk, an entrepreneur who understands science, to Summers, an economist who cares about the development of AI, they all believe that AI&#8217;s replacement of jobs will be comprehensive, and once artificial general intelligence (AGI) appears soon, it is simple, complex, physical, and intellectual. No job will be spared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Secondly, the speed of AI technology progress is fast, and more and more have the feeling of thousands of miles a day and three days a day. For example, 180 years elapsed between the &#8220;Turk chess-playing robot&#8221; (a hoax of 1770 that may be considered the starting point for the idea) and the publication of Turing&#8217;s paper in 1950; Another 47 years passed until Deep Blue defeated Kasparov in 1997. It is also about 20 years since a chess robot named Alpha Dog defeated Lee Sedol in 2016 and Ke Jie in 2017. From ChatGPT to Sora came out, only one year apart. We don&#8217;t need to use any complex model to predict, just look at this speed and acceleration to come up with a reasonable expectation of the emergence of general artificial intelligence.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, the &#8220;development paradox&#8221; of large model AI predestined the large-scale loss of jobs to be almost inevitable. Between camps, between countries, and between enterprises, they all realize that occupying the commanding heights of AI technology and industry is a matter of life and death. This has led to the development of AI, creating a competition similar to the Cold War space race, arms race, and nuclear weapons race. Moreover, large model AI is highly energy-intensive and &#8220;money burning&#8221; (for example, ChatGPT-4 cost $400 million, and ChatGPT-5 is said to cost $2.5 billion). The inevitable direction and way to explore the use of models, expand the user base, and improve the rate of return is to increase labor productivity, thereby reducing the use of labor and human capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. What hasn&#8217;t changed?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>However, as long as human labor has not been completely replaced or determined by artificial intelligence, or &#8220;man-machine integration&#8221; has not been widely realized, there are still some things that will not change. Moreover, these things or aspects that have not changed become more precious and can provide us with a window of time.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The most important point is that people are still the dominant party, and it is still &#8220;man telling the machine what to do&#8221;, which is fundamental to keeping our confidence. This has both technical and institutional implications. In other words, the two fundamental ways for us humans to cope with job replacement have not fundamentally changed so far, although they also need to keep pace with The Times and constantly correct the direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, human capital is still the base to resist the impact of AI, but human beings need to know their own strengths and weaknesses, and take promoting strengths and avoiding weaknesses as the basic strategy of human capital training in the AI era. So far, human intelligence or natural intelligence still has an advantage over AI in the following aspects: (1) soft skills rather than hard skills; (2) non-cognitive abilities rather than cognitive abilities; (3) EQ rather than IQ; (4) Human understanding and empathy, not mathematical problem-solving skills, not even coding skills; (5) tacit knowledge is not only a tacit skill.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, the social welfare system remains a fundamental underpinning system, and the material conditions for fulfilling such functions are increasingly enhanced. From the development of early capitalism, Marx saw that once labor force became a commodity, it was difficult for workers to escape from the fate of exploitation. At the beginning of the establishment of the welfare state in Northern Europe, &#8220;de-commodification&#8221; was highlighted in the system design, that is, weakening the attribute of labor force as a purely private element and strengthening the social rights of workers and their families. In the context of AI&#8217;s &#8220;job destruction&#8221; increasingly greater than and faster than &#8220;job creation&#8221; conditions, this concept and practice are increasingly important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. How employment responds to AI and its results<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Whether old or new, there are several ways in which employment will respond to AI substitution. Before summarizing these approaches, let&#8217;s make a reasonable presupposition that the development of AI will eventually increase labor productivity by an unprecedented degree. On this basis, workers usually have and can have the following ways out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, move into higher-quality jobs. This is an outcome that optimistic economists have always believed in, and which has been repeatedly proved by facts since the &#8220;Luddite movement&#8221; occurred in history. It just requires workers to be more skilled to match it. In other words, the people who get these new jobs and the people who lose the old ones are usually not the same people, not in the same cohort for the most part, not even in the same generation.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the future, the gap between losing an old job and getting a new one will only widen. Many economists, including former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have moved from their faith in the job creation of technological progress to the view that Luddism has its own merit. Given that Mnuchin, another former US Treasury secretary, is still &#8220;optimistic&#8221; about the employment impact of AI, and that it is now hard to find anyone with such an attitude, we can call this position in the air &#8220;Mnuchin position.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, move to positions characterized by &#8220;reverse Kuznets.&#8221; This refers to those industries where labor productivity is low and therefore pay is low. Objectively speaking, the degree of formalization of the new position is lower than that of the original job. Subjectively speaking, the new job is also less respectable than the old one. In short, the quality of employment is reduced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US economist Robert Solow got to the essence of this phenomenon when he asked why computers are everywhere but productivity is not rising. That is, while AI is bound to increase productivity in some areas, other industries are becoming more &#8220;curly,&#8221; absorbing transfer workers at the cost of lower output per capita. So we can call it the &#8220;anti-Kuznets post.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Third, move to a position with the nature of &#8220;Baumol cost disease&#8221;. This refers to those industries where people maintain a huge demand, but it is naturally difficult to improve labor productivity. The economist William Baumol used the performing arts as a prime example of such an industry. In any case, the survival and expansion of these types of industries and jobs lies at the heart of the demand and elasticity of the products and services. Obviously, this type of job can be called &#8220;Baumol cost disease job.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fourth, move to jobs induced by new consumption. The content we consume today might have been unimaginable a few years ago, but simply did not exist earlier. The same is true for jobs. In the future, with the improvement of labor productivity, people&#8217;s tastes are changing, new things and new ideas continue to emerge, so the field of consumption is constantly expanding, and the type of occupation is renovated. In view of the consumption incentives of such jobs, in the final analysis, caused by the improvement of productivity on the supply side, is a phenomenon of &#8220;supply creates demand&#8221;, we can call it &#8220;Say type of jobs&#8221;.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fifth, move on to roles that have emerged as a result of redefinition. Activities that did not previously meet the definition of employment but can now be recognized as &#8220;employment&#8221; by society on the back of overall labor productivity and compensated in the form of transfer payments can be considered employment. For example, if a person identifies as a &#8220;writer&#8221; but is not paid for his or her work, the status of &#8220;not engaged in more than one hour of paid work in the past week&#8221; is not counted as employment, according to the survey definition of unemployment. However, if society can afford it, it can also be considered a form of employment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The same is true of those who do not claim to be &#8220;working,&#8221; that is, those who no longer seek employment. There are two scenarios. One is that the parties have sources of support, such as simply &#8220;lying down&#8221; by eating the elderly. The other is that you do not need to work, but you can get inclusive social welfare support. For example, if a universal basic income is implemented, it creates an environment in which some people who are hit by employment choose not to work in the traditional sense. Given that this relates to Keynes&#8217;s proposition in his famous 1930 essay &#8220;The economic possibilities of Our grandchildren,&#8221; we might call it a &#8220;Keynesian job.&#8221;<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Find solutions in change and invariance<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the long-term experience of human beings in dealing with the phenomenon of technology replacing employment in economic history, several principle policy suggestions can be put forward, that is, to guide technological development and the behavior of market players through system construction, policy adjustment and institutional reform, and try to achieve several &#8220;synchronization&#8221; :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first is to maintain the synchronization of the rate of job destruction and the rate of job creation, especially in terms of the number of jobs to maximize the feasibility of job transfer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second is to maintain the synchronization of productivity improvement rate of various industries to avoid the occurrence of Solow paradox.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The third is to maintain the speed of AI labor replacement and the speed of training workers, and shorten the period of re-employment friction as much as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fourth is to maintain the synchronization of productivity improvement and productivity sharing, which is also the requirement and embodiment of the unity of fairness and efficiency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To ensure the implementation of the above principles from the perspective of government functions, we can start with several important and urgent countermeasures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, accelerate the construction of a Chinese-style welfare state. Several points should be emphasized in this regard:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, accelerate the improvement of the social welfare system in the spirit of seizing the day and night, or in the speed of Moore&#8217;s Law.<mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">  CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, we should design and improve the welfare system in accordance with the principle of universal benefits. This means changing the past concept of strictly identifying who benefits from social welfare, because in the era of accelerating job loss, it is increasingly impossible to distinguish whether a person is &#8220;lying down&#8221;, and AI expulsion of workers itself has strong externalities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Third, social solidarity, social protection and protection of rights and interests should be used to offset the spread of informal employment and its negative impact on workers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, significantly extend the period of compulsory or free education. The need to compete with AI, on the one hand, puts higher and higher demands on human capital, on the other hand, requires more emphasis on the cultivation of non-cognitive abilities. Research from Harvard University&#8217;s Center for Child Development shows that in the first few years of life, the brain is able to make more than 1 million neuronal connections per second, which cannot be repeated at any later stage of life. Non-cognitive skills are best developed at the ages of three and four, and the ideal move would be to extend compulsory education to this pre-school age. Moreover, a significant increase in expected labor productivity could significantly expand public resources for education, enough to support longer school days for children.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, remove institutional barriers to child development, education and training, mobility and employment, social protection, and other basic public services. In particular, the institutional reasons for the existence of migrant children and left-behind children should be eliminated. Studies have shown that the nurturing and care of parents play an irreplaceable role in the cultivation of children&#8217;s human capital, especially in the acquisition of non-cognitive abilities, as well as their lifelong social mobility opportunities. Therefore, promoting the reform of the household registration system to address such problems faced by left-behind children and migrant children should be given the highest priority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color has-small-font-size\">\u672c\u6587\u7531<a href=\"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/a>\u8f6c\u8f7d\u800c\u6210\uff0c\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u8d22\u7ecf\u00b7\u83b1\u7ef4\u7279\uff1b\u7f16\u8f91\/\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1aCXO UNIONCXO\u8054\u76df\u5c0fU\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-medium-font-size\">\u5982\u9700\u52a0\u5165<a href=\"http:\/\/weixin.qq.com\/r\/fxJxaVHE1AyrrRUK90dt\">CXO UNION\uff08CXO\u8054\u76df\uff09<\/a>\u9ad8\u7ba1\u793e\u7fa4\uff0c\u8bf7\u8054\u7cfb\u793e\u7fa4\u5c0f\u4f19\u4f34\u54e6~<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/CXOUNION\u65b0\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color has-small-font-size\">\u514d\u8d23\u58f0\u660e: \u672c\u7f51\u7ad9(<a href=\"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\">http:\/\/www.cxounion.cn\/<\/a>)\u5185\u5bb9\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u81ea\u539f\u521b\u3001\u5408\u4f5c\u5a92\u4f53\u4f9b\u7a3f\u548c\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u6295\u7a3f\uff0c\u51e1\u5728\u672c\u7f51\u7ad9\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5747\u4ec5\u4f9b\u53c2\u8003\u3002\u672c\u7f51\u7ad9\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u786e\u4fdd\u6240\u63d0\u4f9b\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u53ca\u53ef\u9760\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6709\u5173\u8d44\u6599\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u53ca\u53ef\u9760\u6027\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u524d\u8bf7\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6838\u5b9e\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u81ea\u4e3b\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002\u672c\u7f51\u7ad9\u5bf9\u6709\u5173\u8d44\u6599\u6240\u5f15\u81f4\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u3001\u4e0d\u786e\u6216\u9057\u6f0f\uff0c\u6982\u4e0d\u8d1f\u4efb\u4f55\u6cd5\u5f8b\u8d23\u4efb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color has-small-font-size\">\u672c\u7f51\u7ad9\u520a\u8f7d\u7684\u6240\u6709\u5185\u5bb9(\u5305\u62ec\u4f46\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9650\u6587\u5b57\u3001\u56fe\u7247\u3001LOGO\u3001\u97f3\u9891\u3001\u89c6\u9891\u3001\u8f6f\u4ef6\u3001\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7b49) \u7248\u6743\u5f52\u539f\u4f5c\u8005\u6240\u6709\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u5355\u4f4d\u6216\u4e2a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u672c\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e2d\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u53ef\u80fd\u6d89\u5acc\u4fb5\u72af\u5176\u77e5\u8bc6\u4ea7\u6743\u6216\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u5b9e\u5185\u5bb9\u65f6\uff0c\u8bf7\u53ca\u65f6\u901a\u77e5\u672c\u7ad9\uff0c\u4e88\u4ee5\u5220\u9664\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u53d8\u4e0e\u4e0d\u53d8\u2014\u2014\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u5f71\u54cd<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":17252,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[55],"class_list":["post-17251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-viewpoint","tag-55"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17251","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17251"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17251\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17267,"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17251\/revisions\/17267"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17252"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17251"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17251"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17251"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}