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class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5927\u536b\u00b7\u9c81\u5bbe\u65af\u5766\uff1a<\/strong>\u6240\u4ee5\u4f60\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u662f\u4ece2023\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u662f\u5417\uff1f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u6700\u8fd1\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u626b\u6e05\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u969c\u788d\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a2023\u5e74\u4f1a\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u4e0d\u518d\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u600e\u4e48\u770b\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6770\u91cc\u7c73\u00b7\u683c\u5170\u745f\u59c6\uff1a<\/strong>\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0a\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u80af\u5b9a\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ece\u672a\u627f\u8ba4\u8fc7\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u627f\u8ba4\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e00\u624b\u523a\u6fc0\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u540e\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u6709\u5229\u5f71\u54cd\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u81ea\u5df1\u3002\u4f46\u4ece\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u5c06\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u66b4\u8dcc\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u7d27\u7f29\u6548\u5e94\u5f52\u548e\u4e8e\u81ea\u5df1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5927\u536b\u00b7\u9c81\u5bbe\u65af\u5766\uff1a<\/strong>\u4e0d\u4e45\u524d\u66fe\u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u592a\u559c\u6b22\u6770\u00b7\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ed6\u5904\u7406\u901a\u80c0\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6770\u91cc\u7c73\u00b7\u683c\u5170\u745f\u59c6\uff1a<\/strong>\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4e0d\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u638c\u63a7\u4e4b\u4e2d\u4e86\u3002\u901a\u80c0\u6c34\u5e73\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<strong>\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fdb\u5165\u4e86\u901a\u80c0\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8f83\u9ad8\u3001\u5229\u7387\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4f53\u73b0\u5728\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u5c31\u662f\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u63a8\u9ad8\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u5219\u964d\u4f4e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8d44\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u6240\u5904\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u5229\u7387\u9ad8\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5927\u536b\u00b7\u9c81\u5bbe\u65af\u5766\uff1a<\/strong>\u4eba\u6027\u4e2d\u7684\u4ec0\u4e48\u9a71\u4f7f\u4eba\u4eec\u53c2\u4e0e\u6ce1\u6cab\u5462\uff1f\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u827e\u8428\u514b\u00b7\u725b\u987f\u7235\u58eb\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u4e5f\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e86\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u4ed6\u628a\u623f\u5b50\u62b5\u62bc\u4e86\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u94b1\u90fd\u6295\u5165\u4e86\u5357\u6d77\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u4e8f\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u7684\u94b1\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u50cf\u4ed6\u8fd9\u6837\u806a\u660e\u7684\u4eba\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u62b5\u5236\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4eba\u7c7b\u65e0\u6cd5\u6297\u62d2\u8eab\u5904\u6ce1\u6cab\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6770\u91cc\u7c73\u00b7\u683c\u5170\u745f\u59c6\uff1a<\/strong>\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u6bd4\u770b\u7740\u4f60\u7684\u90bb\u5c45\u81f4\u5bcc\u66f4\u4ee4\u4eba\u607c\u706b\u7684\u4e86\u3002\u5f53\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u65f6\uff0c\u5c1d\u8bd5\u52a0\u5165\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u6297\u62d2\u7684\uff0c\u5f53\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u5e76\u8fbe\u5230\u62d0\u70b9\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u4f1a\u5438\u5f15\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u624d\u662f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002<strong>\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u725b\u5e02\u548c\u718a\u5e02\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u826f\u597d\u7684\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u6bcf\u969420\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u9047\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u62d0\u70b9\uff0c\u5230\u90a3\u65f6\u4f1a\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u53d8\u5f97\u770b\u6da8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u518d\u8003\u8651\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5927\u536b\u00b7\u9c81\u5bbe\u65af\u5766\uff1a<\/strong>\u4f60\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u5ea6\u8fc7\u7684\u3002\u4f60\u5728\u82f1\u56fd\u4e0a\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u540e\u6765\u53c8\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u53bb\u7f8e\u56fd\u54c8\u4f5b\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u8fdb\u4fee\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6770\u91cc\u7c73\u00b7\u683c\u5170\u745f\u59c6\uff1a<\/strong>\u5927\u5b66\u6bd5\u4e1a\u540e\u6211\u7533\u8bf7\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u90a3\u91cc\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u725b\u6d25\u548c\u5251\u6865\u7684\u7ec5\u58eb\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u62dc\u8bbf\u5ba2\u6237\u65f6\u9047\u5230\u4e86\u632b\u6298\uff0c\u4ed6\u8bf4\u5f53\u4f60\u62e5\u6709\u4e8635\u5e74\u7684\u4e30\u5bcc\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6216\u8005\u5df2\u7ecf\u5c31\u8bfb\u8fc7\u54c8\u4f5b\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u65f6\uff0c\u518d\u6765\u89c1\u6211\u5427\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u540e\u6765\u6211\u5c31\u7533\u8bf7\u53bb\u4e86\u54c8\u4f5b\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u5b66\u4e60\u3002  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5927\u536b\u00b7\u9c81\u5bbe\u65af\u5766\uff1a<\/strong>\u90a3\u4f60\u7ed3\u675f\u54c8\u4f5b\u5546\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u5b66\u4e60\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6765\u6ce2\u58eb\u987f\u540e\u6253\u7b97\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6770\u91cc\u7c73\u00b7\u683c\u5170\u745f\u59c6\uff1a<\/strong>\u6211\u5f53\u65f6\u8fd8\u662f\u7ee7\u7eed\u627e\u4e86\u4e00\u4efd\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5c1d\u8bd5\u8fd8\u662f\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u4efd\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u6211\u3002\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e86\u4e5d\u4e2a\u6708\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u79bb\u5f00\u4e86\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u5e76\u5411\u6211\u7684\u8001\u677fDean LeBaron\u63d0\u8bae\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77\u521b\u529e\u4e00\u5bb6\u65b0\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u5c31\u662fBattery March\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5927\u536b\u00b7\u9c81\u5bbe\u65af\u5766\uff1a<\/strong>\u6240\u4ee5\u4f60\u662fBattery March\u7684\u8054\u5408\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u90a3\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u572820\u4e16\u7eaa60\u5e74\u4ee3\u56e0\u4f55\u800c\u95fb\u540d\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6770\u91cc\u7c73\u00b7\u683c\u5170\u745f\u59c6\uff1a<\/strong>\u6309\u7167\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u90a3\u662f\u4e00\u5bb6\u8d85\u503c\u5546\u5e97\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u62e5\u6709\u5c11\u91cf\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u5c0f\u80a1\u7968\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u5e76\u4e0d\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u90a3\u662fNifty 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 <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO 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class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cxounion.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/CXOUNION\u65b0\u4e8c\u7ef4\u7801.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The bubble prognosticator Grantham&#8217;s new predictions |<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Climate change will be an investment theme for the next 100 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;For the most part, there&#8217;s a good balance between bull and bear markets, and every 20 years or so, you hit an inflection point where enough people become bullish and stop thinking about fundamentals.&#8221; Says legendary investor Jeremy Grantham.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr Grantham, co-founder of asset management firm GMO, is also a legendary investor known for foreseeing the Japanese asset price bubble in 1989, the dotcom technology bubble in 2000 and the bursting of the property bubble in 2008. He recently held a conversation with another investor, David Rubenstein, in Boston, USA. The two billionaires gave fascinating views on the tech bubble and green investing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Grantham says he is a committed value investor and prefers to spend his time and energy on issues that are more important to humanity, such as climate and resources, than researching and discussing the stock market. Long before the climate sector became a hot investment, Grantham set up the Green Fund to invest in green technology, and he believes that climate change will be a major investment issue for at least the next 100 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Highlights of the conversation are as follows:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We have entered a period of higher inflation and higher interest rates, reflected in life by low interest rates pushing up asset prices and high interest rates lowering our asset prices. We are now in an era where average interest rates are higher than in the past decade.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>For the most part, there is a good balance between bull and bear markets, and every 20 years or so, there is an inflection point where enough people become bullish and stop thinking about fundamentals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>I&#8217;ve spent my life studying relatively trivial questions, good and bad, and I&#8217;ve spent a lot of energy thinking about bubbles that make sense.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The revenue growth of green companies will completely dominate the revenue growth of older gasoline-powered vehicles, and it&#8217;s not too late for us to step in. Climate change will be a major investment issue for at least the next 100 years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>I consider myself a realist who tries to see the world as it is, not as I want it to be.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>The conversation is as follows (with redactions) :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">First, investors who are good at predicting bubbles<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>David Rubenstein: You&#8217;re known in the investment community for always seeing bubbles. Do you think the United States is in the midst of a giant bubble right now? Has the tech bubble you found burst enough to end?  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: We are experiencing a tech bubble that we discovered in 2021, and we are currently in a period of deflation, and the recession is likely to continue into next year, with falling stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>David Rubenstein: So the recession you&#8217;re predicting is going to start in 2023? The Federal Reserve recently said it has cleared the way for a recession and believes it no longer exists for a recession that would begin in 2023. What do you think about this?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: The Fed is definitely wrong about these things. They have never acknowledged a recession, especially one caused by the bursting of the bubble they helped stimulate. They take credit for the beneficial effects of rising asset prices on the economy. But it has never blamed itself for the deflationary effects of plunging asset prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">David Rubenstein: Did you say not too long ago that you didn&#8217;t like Jay Powell and his handling of inflation?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: Yeah, I think it&#8217;s largely out of his hands. Inflation is above the average of the past decade. We have entered a period of higher inflation and higher interest rates, reflected in life by low interest rates pushing up asset prices and high interest rates lowering our asset prices. We are now in an era where average interest rates are higher than in the past decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>David Rubenstein: What is it about human nature that drives people to participate in bubbles? Even the famous Sir Isaac Newton, who was involved in the bubble at the time, mortgaged his house, put all his money into the South Sea Company and lost all his money as a result. Even someone as smart as him can&#8217;t resist bubbles. Why can&#8217;t humans resist being in a bubble?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: There&#8217;s nothing more irritating than watching your neighbor get rich. When there are enough people, it is irresistible to try to join, and when the stock price rises and reaches an inflection point, it attracts everyone, in fact, these investors are the biggest bubble. For the most part, there is a good balance between bull and bear markets, and every 20 years or so, an inflection point is reached where enough people become bullish and stop thinking about fundamentals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">David Rubenstein: You&#8217;ve spent most of your career in Boston. Why did you go to university in the UK and then Harvard Business School in the US?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: After university I applied for a job at a consultancy whose clients were mainly gentlemen from Oxford and Cambridge. I was once frustrated when I visited a client and he said come see me when you have 35 years of experience or have gone to Harvard Business School. So I applied to Harvard Business School.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>David Rubenstein: So what are you going to do when you come to Boston after Harvard Business School?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: I went ahead and got a consultancy job, but after trying it I decided it wasn&#8217;t right for me. After nine months, I left the company and proposed to my boss, Dean LeBaron, that we start a new company together, Battery March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>David Rubenstein: So you&#8217;re one of the co-founders of Battery March. What was that company famous for in the 1960s?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: It was a value store by today&#8217;s standards. We also owned a small number of stocks, but small stocks were not in vogue at the time, they were the Nifty Fifty (an informal term that emerged during a specific period in the history of US stock investing to refer to the 50 highly sought after large-cap stocks that traded on the New York Stock Exchange in the 1960s and 1970s), Everyone owns shares of Avon and ExxonMobil, and cheap, small companies are not valued. Of course, in the long run, choosing these cheap small companies is actually more rewarding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">David Rubenstein: You were the first to develop index funds, and how did it go when you set up an index fund?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: Very slowly, and for the first two years someone gave us an award for the product that got the most attention but had no business.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>David Rubenstein: So you decided to start your own company? GMO is now a very big asset manager. Are you famous for predicting bubbles?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: No, actually we focus on value management. I&#8217;m happy to have won the first nine years in a row, it&#8217;s a great way to start a company and a demonstration of the value of our traditional stock picking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>David Rubenstein: But when did you become so famous for predicting bubbles? Is it your writing, your stock selection, or your public speaking?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: I started writing quarterly research in 1998, and 1999 was a huge bubble that was going up and up, and we were fighting that bubble all the time, so we came in early, and it was a brutal two years, but revenue was also growing. So the market made a magnificent move, skyrocketing from its all-time high in early 1998 to March 2008, when our clients disagreed with our early withdrawal and largely fired us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>David Rubenstein: So people took their money out, and when the so-called dot-com bubble burst, did people call you and want to put their money back in your hands?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: None of the people who fired us are going to come back because of our same product. We didn&#8217;t lose money from 2000 to 2002, so when the S&amp;P fell 50%, the company&#8217;s assets didn&#8217;t grow and our risk ballooned.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Second, &#8220;climate Change is an investment theme for the next 100 years&#8221;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors are racing to put their money into climate solutions, with the number of mutual funds and ETFs focused on climate investments globally up 27 percent from 2021. Together, these 1,200 funds manage more than $400 billion, with climate-themed ETFs accounting for 40% of all new fund openings in the first quarter of 2023. But long before it became fashionable, billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham was passionate about solving the climate crisis. In 1997, he and his wife founded the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, Grantham has pledged to give most of his fortune to the foundation to fight climate change, an effort he calls the race of our lives, and for him, the capital flowing into green investments reflects what he&#8217;s been warning about for years. Disasters such as floods and fires create momentum for policies such as carbon taxes, which will transform global investment. So far, he seems to be right. Last year&#8217;s Inflation Reduction Act included about $370 billion in climate incentives. By the end of 2022, global investment in energy transformation will exceed one trillion US dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">David Rubenstein: When you wake up every day and look at the stock market and the economy, what is your biggest concern?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: I think the stock market is secondary to a more important set of long-term issues. My job description at Guantanamo these days is to address long-underappreciated issues, and now is a good time to do so as we face climate change, the most important issue for the investment community in the coming decades. We are faced with a shortage of resources and manpower, which has a huge impact on most countries in the world. We have inequality growing at an exponential rate, which is poison in the political system. I think we&#8217;ve created problems on this planet that are bad for all life. We want to devote all our time and energy to discussing these issues. I&#8217;ve spent my life studying relatively trivial questions, good and bad, and I&#8217;ve spent a lot of energy thinking about bubbles that make sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>David Rubenstein: When you go to a cocktail party or something and people ask you how the world is and you tell them everything is falling apart, do they ever get tired of hearing you say that? Have you ever told people that there are actually some good things happening?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: You have to structure it in a more interesting way. Fortunately, our efforts to address issues like climate change are impressive. We&#8217;ve got so many great scientists working on solutions. You can look back at what people are saying about wind, solar, storage and electric vehicles, and we&#8217;re doing a lot better than people thought 20 years ago. In fact, good news travels much faster than we think. So we should focus more on the bad news and the problems facing us, so that most people can realize that something terrible has happened and need to prepare and act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">David Rubenstein: Who manages your money?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: Ninety-five percent of my money goes into the foundation. I&#8217;m a co-administrator of the foundation, and we invest 75% of our money in early-stage ventures. I think the venture capital industry in the United States is doing pretty well in the venture capital world, attracting people from all over the world.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>David Rubenstein: You&#8217;re obviously very concerned about climate change, and your foundation focuses heavily on things related to climate change. So what are you doing to combat climate change? Do you often walk or ride a bike?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: I feel guilty when I fly, but what we do with our money is more important, 50% of the foundation is invested in green technology, 25% of which we invest ourselves, and we have a team of about six people that have done about 60 deals directly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>David Rubenstein: People think there might be a bubble in green investment because some people say there&#8217;s too much money going into green investment and it might be a bubble, are you worried about that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: I&#8217;m worried about it, but the good news is that countries around the world are finally realising that this is a serious problem. They are changing the tax structure, they are changing the way they subsidize, they are looking at shifting money to green investment. For example, the revenue growth of electric vehicle green companies will completely dominate the revenue growth of older gasoline-powered vehicles, and it&#8217;s not too late for us to step in. Climate change will be a major investment issue for at least the next 100 years.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Third, suggestions for ordinary investors<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>David Rubenstein: What do you think is the biggest mistake the average investor makes?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: They are so enthusiastic and I can understand that when people introduce new deals, start-ups, I get very interested in them. I like to leave those decisions to colleagues with better discipline. So I understand what it&#8217;s like to get carried away. I invested in the first bubble in 1968, made a small fortune, and then lost it all. I&#8217;ve been a total value investor ever since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>David Rubenstein: If I had a million dollars and I wanted to put it in a place where I couldn&#8217;t lose it. Would you recommend an advisor or an index fund or something?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: I think most of the money in global index funds is outside the U.S.. If you will, I would say only outside the U.S., for the time being, because the U.S. market is overpriced. And markets outside the U.S. are not particularly overpriced and are more suitable for investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">David Rubenstein: So for young people today, do you think it&#8217;s a good idea to go into money management? What job would you recommend to a young person?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: Asset management is still a profitable business. But I think it&#8217;s better to try to get into the venture capital world with a good mix of making money and being useful. Either run a startup on your own or fund a startup, pick and help the winner. If you can focus on the real issues that we talked about, like climate change. Then you&#8217;re really combining the opportunity to make a lot of money with the opportunity to do good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>David Rubenstein: Do you consider yourself an optimist or a pessimist? A pessimist is someone who thinks the market is overvalued and we&#8217;re going to have a problem. An optimist is someone who sees great things happen to you in life.  <mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\" class=\"has-inline-color has-white-color\">CXO UNION-CXO\u8054\u76df\uff08cxounion.cn\uff09<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeremy Grantham: I consider myself a realist who tries to see the world as it is. Not as I want it to be. Sometimes I will succeed, sometimes I will fail, and when I focus on my new career. 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