【观点】中国工程院院士、阿里云创始人王坚：云和人工智能带来云计算的第三次浪潮

10 月 31 日，中国工程院院士、阿里云创始人、中国数字经济50人论坛委员王坚在 2023 云栖大会上以《云计算的第三次浪潮》为主题发表演讲，他认为人工智能和云计算的结合，带来了云计算的第三次浪潮，未来十年、几十年的时间里，会有足够多的创新在云计算时代创造出来。

以下为演讲全文（在不改变原意上有删减）：

我特别觉得 2023 年是一个很特殊的年份，我想用我自己的理解来说下这件事。

第一，我对时间一直很敏感，哪一年发生的事情、该在什么时候发生（都记得很清楚）。2008 年 10 月 24 号，今天大家讲是程序员日，而我们那时候招了第一个员工，今天想起来也是记忆犹新。世界上的事情只有自然而然地发生才是最好的事情。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

我们在半年以后写了第一行代码，更有意思的是，2010 年时我们有了最早的阿里云计算开发者大会，这几个时间其实不长，但还是很刻骨铭心的。

为什么刻骨铭心呢？我们可以看一下这个历史，很有意思。我刚刚读大学时是 1980 年，有一本书叫《第三次浪潮》，这本书还是很有争议的，里面讲了一个非常有意思的事情：三次浪潮。第一次是农业经济，它提了一个很有意思的概念，即把马作为动力，认为是可再生能源，所以取了一个名字叫“活电池”，用今天的话来讲就是“绿色能源”。事实上人类就是从绿色能源开始的。

第二次浪潮，就是科学技术发生了，我们开始用化石燃料来做这件事情，所有都是不可再生的能源。大家可以设想一下，在 1980 年的时候，他就提到我们应该进入清洁能源的时代。

那本书讲了很多东西，很多东西是和今天有关系的。也就是说，他在那时候预测了互联网的存在，同时也谈到在家里办公的兴起。更了不起的事情，他提出了人工智能的出现，这就是今天大家天天在谈的事情。当然也谈到了对芯片的依赖，如果你去看那本书的中文翻译就会发现，那时候很难理解 Chip（芯片）是什么东西，所以中文翻译的时候是翻译成“集成电路”的。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

这是很有意思的一件事情，可以想想当时对于世界的理解是什么样的水平。

一、云计算的第一次浪潮

从云计算的角度来看，从 1991 年万维网的出现，到 2003 年云计算的第一次提供服务，我认为这是第三次浪潮开始的开始。当然我把它当做云计算的第一次浪潮。云计算第一次浪潮事实上改变了今天互联网的“天下”。我很难翻译，写成中文不知道怎么说，后来用了“天下”这个词，它既不是一个产业，也不是一个具体行业，反正改变了所有的生活、生产和工作方式。

这里我想举两个例子。第一个，大家都知道今天有一家叫公司 Netflix，很少人理解 2007 年时，它已经在那一天售卖出了第 11 张光盘，它是一个卖 DVD 出身的企业，但它同时在那一年觉得要用云计算进入流媒体的行列。大家都知道这是一家公司从第一天起 100% 彻头彻尾在使用云计算了，是一个真正云原生的企业。大家可能不知道，就在几周前，还不到一个月，它才真正把 DVD 业务关掉了。我为什么说 2003 年是一个很神奇的事情呢？就是几十年前发生的事情到今天才划了一个句号。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

当年谈移动互联网，有个很有意思的发现，当时第一台 iPhone 出来的时候，没有大家都知道的 APP Store，APP Store 都是在 iPhone 出来之后才有的。当年第一台 iphone 出来的时候只有一个东西，叫 iTunes Store。而等到 2008 年 APP Store 真正上线时，上面只有 500 个应用，但大家知道今天上面有几百万个应用，没有云计算的能力这都是不可以发生的，因为每一个 APP 后面都意味着一个开发者的团队。当然今天这个数字，不仅是 APP Store，事实上这简直是一个天文数字。

在 2022 年，下载次数超过 2500 多亿次，所以云计算已经到了什么程度呢？你每分钟、每秒钟都在用，但你不会感觉到它的存在。这一点非常像电的历史发展。今天外面阳光明媚，可是我们依旧在靠人工照明的环境下开这个会，事实上电已经让我们感觉不到它的不存在了。

在中国，也同样发生过的这样的事情。2011 年，有一家叫米哈游的公司诞生了，它也是和 Netflix 一样，第一天就完完整整的长在云上，它都不知道什么叫做传统的 IT。但就是这样一家公司，在 2023 年全球游戏的开发者 50 强中，排在第一位。

可能大家没有概念，这个“第一”是什么概念？就是大家都知道的国内很大的游戏厂商也排在了后面。在这里年纪稍微大一点的，可能玩过《愤怒的小鸟》，这个游戏排在排行榜的第六。就是这么一家公司也是因为云计算涌现出来，所以那一次浪潮事实上改变了非常多的东西。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

二、云计算的第二次浪潮

云计算第二次浪潮的形成是“传统企业”。我这里打个引号，没有任何贬义的意思，就是我们过去看到的企业开始用云计算。我觉得是第二次浪潮的开始，因为这些企业在那个时代看起来还是 IT 技术的先行者。可因为有了第一次浪潮以后，他们变得要追赶这个浪潮了，但很高兴的是，他们真的创造了这次浪潮。

更典型的就是银行上云，它标志着一个非常重要的数字化手段的开始。我自己亲身的经历，开始做云计算时所有人问我：你能不能让银行上云。我记得当时被记者问的时候，我有一个非常耍赖的回答，我说“银行要不要上云不是我要回答的，是银行自身要回答的。”

在 2022 年北京冬奥会上，云计算第一次承载了赛事的核心系统。如何让一个核心业务的核心价值通过云计算释放出来，这代表了它对社会的价值和意义。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

事实上，云计算在这个时代跟奥运会的关系不是一个简单的“用技术还是不用技术”的关系，它的意义就像当年在芝加哥的世界博览会上第一次用交流电一样，那是一次让交流电大行其道的活动。奥运会也是让云计算成为以后计算主流的一个标志性事件。所以我觉得，云计算就是交流电在计算这个领域的翻版。我高兴的是，我们成了这个历史的一部分。

三、云计算的第三次浪潮

到 2023 年，我也是在这个行业也工作了几十年的人了。我觉得 2023 年太特殊了，人工智能和云计算在 60 年以后走在了一起。

这句话怎么讲？大家可能知道 John McCarthy 这个人，他最早编了“人工智能”这个词，也是最早在达特茅斯会议上讨论人工智能方案的十人之一。但是，我想在场的人可能不知道，在那场会的以后，他也帮我们定义了云计算。我最早关于计算是公共服务的想法，就是从他的文章里面读来了。所以他在 1961 年就在设想计算能不能成为一项公共服务。

所以我觉得，有两件事情同时在 John McCarthy 的身上体现出来了，就是关于人工智能和云计算。

2023 年，这两件事情有了一次集中的体现和爆发。显然“人工智能”这四个字已经不能很好地描述现在发生的事情。大语言模型可能是一个好的描述，但也不能完整地表达这件事情，所以我这里用一个投巧的方法：GPT 模型的出现使得计算机对科技创新的革命产生了非常重要的影响。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

这是第一次计算对科技创新本身发生了一次革命性的变化。很少人意识到它不仅是科学研究工具的革命，事实上是一场会让科学发生一次革命的工具。计算在未来可能创造很多我们不能想象的价值。

我个人觉得云计算和 GPT 的关系就是电和电动机的关系。可能平时大家不关心，也就是在全球电动机所消耗掉的电其实占了约 50%，同样在中国这个数字也是一样的。未来，云计算的算力都是会被这些智能时代的电动机，也就是我们所谓的模型消耗掉，这也是我们可以想象的未来发展的一个基础。

回过头来看，电给我们带来了什么？2000 年世纪之初，美国工程院做过一个调查，认为 20 世纪最了不起的技术就是被大家都遗的电气化，也就是电变成了一个公共服务进入了每家。

我想在这里列这个表的另外一个重要的意思是什么？大家认真看一下后面的 19 项，包括汽车、计算机、互联网在内，如果没有电，后面这些技术创造可能都不会发生。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

2023 年，大家都知道生成式 AI，可是即使像英伟达那样跑在前面的企业在发布的时候讲了一句：“最后所有这些计算，都会推动以云的方式来提供”，我想这也是作为一个行业的生命性，就像今天的电可能跟爱迪生说的电不是同一个电了，但是电作为公共服务的存在、作为基础设施的存在，是有非常久远的生命力。

现在，我觉得这样的结合（云和人工智能）是云计算的第三次浪潮，我相信它不会在一年、两年完成，它可能会给我们十年、几十年的时间，才会把刚才我们看到的 20 项发明里面的另外 19 项，在云计算时代发明出来。

翻译：

Wang Jian, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and founder of Alibaba Cloud: Cloud and artificial intelligence bring the third wave of cloud computing

On October 31, Wang Jian, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, founder of Ali Cloud and member of China’s Digital Economy 50 Forum, delivered a speech on the theme of “The Third wave of Cloud Computing” at the 2023 Cloud Conference. He believes that the combination of artificial intelligence and cloud computing has brought about the third wave of cloud computing. There will be enough innovation created in the cloud era. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

The following is the full text of the speech (with abridgments without changing the original meaning) :

I particularly think 2023 is a very special year, I want to use my own understanding of this matter.

First, I have always been very sensitive to time, which year things happen and when they should happen. October 24, 2008, today is programmer’s Day, and we recruited our first employee at that time, and I remember it vividly today. Everything in the world is best when it happens naturally.

We wrote the first line of code half a year later, and what’s more interesting is that in 2010, we had the earliest Ali Cloud Computing Developer Conference, which is not long, but it is still very unforgettable. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Why is that unforgettable?

We can look at this history. It’s interesting. When I first went to college in 1980, there was a book called The Third Wave, which was still very controversial, and it talked about a very interesting thing: the Three Waves. The first is the agricultural economy, which puts forward a very interesting concept, that is, the horse as a power, that is, it is a renewable energy, so it has a name called “living battery”, in today’s terms is “green energy”. In fact, the human race started with green energy.

The second wave, the technology happened, and we started doing it with fossil fuels, all non-renewable sources of energy. You can imagine that in 1980, he said that we should move into the era of clean energy. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

There are a lot of things in that book, a lot of things that are relevant to today. That said, he predicted the existence of the Internet at the time, and also talked about the rise of working from home. Even more remarkable, he brought up the advent of artificial intelligence, which is what everyone is talking about every day today. Of course, it also talks about the dependence on chips, if you go to the Chinese translation of the book, you will find that at that time it was difficult to understand what Chip is, so the Chinese translation is translated into “integrated circuit”.

It’s interesting to think about what level of understanding the world was at that time.

The first wave of cloud computing

From a cloud computing perspective, from the advent of the World Wide Web in 1991, to the first offering of cloud computing services in 2003, I think this is the beginning of the third wave. Of course I think of it as the first wave of cloud computing. The first wave of cloud computing actually changed the “world” of today’s Internet. It was difficult for me to translate, and I did not know how to say it in Chinese. Later, I used the word “Tianxia”, which is neither an industry nor a specific industry, but has changed all the ways of life, production and work.

I would like to give two examples here. First, everyone knows that there is a company called Netflix today, few people understand that in 2007, it has sold the 11th disc on that day, it is a business that sells DVDS, but it also felt that in that year to use cloud computing to enter the ranks of streaming media. Everyone knows that this is a company that has been 100% in the cloud from day one, a true cloud-native enterprise. What you may not know is that just a few weeks ago, less than a month ago, it actually shut down its DVD business. Why do I say 2003 is a magical thing? It’s just something that happened decades ago that’s only now coming to an end. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

When talking about the mobile Internet at that time, there was a very interesting discovery that when the first iPhone came out, there was no APP Store that everyone knew, and the APP Store was only available after the iPhone came out.

When the first iphone came out, there was just one thing called the iTunes Store. When the APP Store really launched in 2008, there were only 500 apps on it, but we know that there are millions of apps on it today, and this cannot happen without cloud computing capabilities, because behind every APP is a team of developers. Of course, that number today is not just for the APP Store, in fact it’s astronomical.

In 2022, there will be more than 250 billion downloads, so how far has cloud computing come? You use it every minute, every second, but you don’t feel it. This is very much like the historical development of electricity. The sun is shining outside today, but we’re still holding this meeting under artificial lighting, in fact the electricity has made us feel it’s not there.

The same thing happened in China. In 2011, a company called Miha You was born, IT is also like Netflix, the first day of the entire long in the cloud, it does not know what is called traditional IT. But such a company, in 2023 the world’s top 50 game developers, ranked first.

Maybe you have no concept, what is the concept of “first”? Even the big domestic game manufacturers that we all know are also ranked behind. If you’re a little older here, you might have played Angry Birds, which is number six on the charts. Such a company is also because of the emergence of cloud computing, so that wave actually changed a lot of things. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

The second wave of cloud computing

The second wave of cloud computing is the “traditional enterprise.” I’m putting quotes here, and I don’t mean it in any derogatory sense, that we’ve seen companies start using cloud computing in the past. I think IT was the beginning of the second wave, because these companies seemed to be pioneers in IT technology at that time. But because of the first wave, they became chasing the wave, but happily, they actually created this wave.

More typical is the banking cloud, which marks the beginning of a very important digital approach. In my own personal experience, when I started doing cloud computing, everyone asked me: Can you put banks on the cloud? I remember when I was asked by a reporter, I had a very deceptive answer, I said, “Whether the bank wants to go to the cloud is not my answer, it is the bank itself to answer.”

At the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, cloud computing hosted the core system of the event for the first time. How to let the core value of a core business be released through cloud computing, which represents its value and significance to society. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

In fact, the relationship between cloud computing and the Olympics in this era is not a simple “to use technology or not to use technology” relationship, its significance is like the first use of alternating current at the Chicago World’s Fair, which is an activity that makes alternating current popular. The Olympics is also a landmark event that will make cloud computing mainstream in the future. So I think cloud computing is the equivalent of alternating current in computing. I am happy that we are part of this history.

The third wave of cloud computing

By 2023, I will have been working in this industry for decades. I think 2023 is too special, artificial intelligence and cloud computing go together after 60 years.

How do you say this? You may know John McCarthy, who first coined the term “artificial intelligence” and was one of the first ten people to talk about artificial intelligence at the Dartmouth Conference. But what I don’t think anyone here knows is that after that meeting. He also helped define cloud computing for us. My earliest idea about computing as a public service came from his article. So in 1961 he wondered if computing could become a public service. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

So I think there are two things that come out of John McCarthy at the same time, and that’s artificial intelligence and cloud computing.

In 2023, these two things have a concentrated embodiment and explosion. Clearly, the words “artificial intelligence” no longer adequately describe what is happening. The big language model may be a good description, but it doesn’t do the whole thing. So I’m going to use a clever way here: the advent of the GPT model made the computer have a very important impact on the revolution of technological innovation.

This is the first time that computing has revolutionized technological innovation itself. Few people realize that it is not only a revolution in the tools of scientific research. But in fact a revolution in the tools of science. Computing may create a lot of value in the future that we can not imagine.

I personally feel that the relationship between cloud computing and GPT is the relationship between electricity and electric motors.

Maybe we don’t care about it, that is, the electricity consumed by electric motors in the world actually accounts for about 50%, and this figure is the same in China. In the future, the computing power of cloud computing will be consumed by these motors of the intelligent era. That is, our so-called model, which is also a basis for future development that we can imagine. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Looking back, what has electricity brought us? At the beginning of the 2000 century, the American Academy of Engineering did a survey that the most remarkable technology of the 20th century was electrification, which was left behind by everyone, that is, electricity became a public service into every household.

What’s another important implication of this list that I want to put here? Take a look at the following 19 items, including cars, computers, and the Internet. If there is no electricity, these technological creations may not happen. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

In 2023, everyone knows about generative AI. But even companies that run ahead like Nvidia said when they launched: “Finally, all these calculations will be promoted to provide in the cloud”, I think this is also the life of an industry, just like today’s electricity may not be the same electricity as Edison said, but the existence of electricity as a public service, as an infrastructure, is a very long life.

Now, I think this combination (cloud and artificial intelligence) is the third wave of cloud computing. And I believe it will not be completed in one year, two years, it will probably give us a decade, decades. Before the other 19 of the 20 inventions we just saw are invented in the cloud computing era.

由CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）转载而成，来源于Metavata公众号；编辑/翻译：CXO UNIONCXO联盟小U。

如需加入CXO UNION（CXO联盟）高管社群，请联系社群小伙伴哦~

免责声明: 本网站(http://www.cxounion.cn/)内容主要来自原创、合作媒体供稿和第三方投稿，凡在本网站出现的信息，均仅供参考。本网站将尽力确保所提供信息的准确性及可靠性，但不保证有关资料的准确性及可靠性，读者在使用前请进一步核实，并对任何自主决定的行为负责。本网站对有关资料所引致的错误、不确或遗漏，概不负任何法律责任。

本网站刊载的所有内容(包括但不仅限文字、图片、LOGO、音频、视频、软件、程序等) 版权归原作者所有。任何单位或个人认为本网站中的内容可能涉嫌侵犯其知识产权或存在不实内容时，请及时通知本站，予以删除。