【观点】嘉实基金总经理经雷：当下形势下长期资金管理机遇与挑战

近日，全球财富管理论坛•2023上海苏河湾大会在上海市静安区隆重召开。本次大会以“金融助力经济复苏与全球合作”为主题，广泛邀请了政府和金融监管部门、主权财富基金、国际与国内代表性金融机构和知名学者，围绕全球经济金融领域各方共同关心的议题展开深入交流，希望在当前复杂环境下持续增进国际间相互理解、信任与合作。嘉实基金总经理经雷在“当前形势下长期资金管理的机遇与挑战”主题论坛上发表演讲。

经雷对当下形势的长期资金管理机遇与挑战进行了全面的解读。他表示，首先，全球在当下包括到明年都面临着以美债为代表的高利率环境，当下面对的是全球风险偏好都在收缩的时代，推动通胀水平上升的若干因素仍然存在。在机遇方面，他表示，对于国内政策理念的理解和认知是未来发展长期资产管理所必须具备的一项核心能力，长期资金管理的核心要点在于要围绕基本面、围绕市场行为以及围绕所有的全球资管领域开展。最后，他指出，资管机构必须看到未来面临的挑战和机遇，围绕数据、智能、数智化的方向推进。

首先，全球在当下包括到明年都面临着以美债为代表的高利率环境，这会影响到全球各个市场、各种资产的核心维度。从历史数据来看，上世纪七八十年代同样面对着高通胀和高利率的经济环境。从1970年开始，一直到上世纪80年代，美元加息一直维持在非常高的水平。美国CPI指数在1965—1970年间从2%上涨到6%，1971—1975年间从6%到8%；受地缘政治的影响，美国的CPI指标在1977—1981年期间从8%攀升至13%。在此之后，1990—2016年全球化加速，通胀阶梯下行，美债持续下行，带来投资者风险偏好上升。2016—2021年开启逆全球化，其标志性事件是2016年英国脱欧，之后美联储缩表被疫情终断，伴随疫情的扩张，全球通胀开始抬升。2022年4月至今，美联储重启加息周期。

我们当下面对的是全球风险偏好都在收缩的时代。根据本轮美联储加息节奏，目前市场预期美联储加息将持续到明年的三季度末、四季度初，预期美债的十年国债基本上快接近顶部。但是这些都是基于当下情况的预期，随着明年整个经济形势的变化，这个预期是否会持续还未可知。正如很多演讲嘉宾所提到的，推动通胀水平上升的若干因素仍然存在：一是逆全球化趋势延续，全球产业链、供应链重组，海外经济体从注重效率到注重安全，供给短期收缩，价格易上难下。二是民粹主义兴起，地缘政治风险继续抬升，和平带给贸易和生产的红利下行。三是主要经济体老龄化加速，劳动力人口进入锐减期。四是连续多年的主要经济体财政扩张，宽财政和货币超发叠加前述因素可能拉长通胀位于高位的时间。伴随着美债利率的抬升，在2015—2022年期间，美国企业年金的权益资产配置比例从58%下降到了47%，债券及底层资产以固定收益类为主的基础资产配置比例从29%提升到52%。从全球维度来看，这些无风险利率是非常好的利率，但是明年全球资产在涵盖了汇率因素的情况下，可能会面对一些前所未有的挑战。

在机遇方面，从国内情况来看，以前是从实际经济运行来看政府政策的举措和理念，但从十八大开始，在十九大、二十大都更加清晰地阐述了政府的政策理念，并且也影响到了政府的举措，进而影响到了整个经济的运行。对于国内政策理念的理解和认知是未来发展长期资产管理所必须具备的一项核心能力，而且这一能力的作用也在愈发凸显。从决策配置的角度来看，经典的资产配置要从单一资产到多元资产，再把多元资产往前推移，通过创造能力争取更好的回报或者风险收益性价比。光有股债组合是不够的，资产配置的选择是影响资产收益的重要因素，更应注重的是结构策略配置而不是战略以及战术资产配置，结构选择正确了就一定会获得风险收益性价比，否则即使做对了大类资产配置，收益和风险也可能是不匹配的。面对未来的风险，特别是整体的系统性风险时，积极应对比精准预测更重要。长期资金管理的核心要点在于要围绕基本面、围绕市场行为以及围绕所有的全球资管领域开展，而且要根据这些核心要素重新梳理、搭建宏观场景，从而增加对国内资本市场的理解。这样才能不重复过去的历史，更加从容地应对市场波动。在强风险管理上，随着市场结构波动性的加大，传统资产不断演变出新的风险收益特征，迅速扩张的资管产品阵营需要精密、可迭代的风险管理来实现产品塑性，此时资产管理机构对风险管理的有效性和纪律性愈发重要。只有具备强风险管理能力，才能更好得完成客户提出的风险收益性价比目标。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

最后，作为资管机构，不能再延续原先靠单个人、单个基本面的理念，必须看到未来资管机构面临的挑战和机遇，围绕数据、智能、数智化的方向推进。现在已经进入了数字化时代，数据的应用在投研决策与风险管理中起到不可替代的作用。再往前延伸到数智化，现在全球所有资管机构都在做大模型，相信资管机构的数智化能力或将在未来3—5年内就会得以实现。对于投资策略，要围绕宏观和策略的场景、局部可计算、数据作为核心基础、平台的计算能力以及模型等等因素，使得原先所有的投研都可以从高质量的信息变成高质量的决策，从而不断提升投资决策的胜率，更好地为客户创造可持续收益。我们也在坚信不移地向这个方向发展。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

翻译：

Harvest Fund General Manager Jing Lei: Opportunities and challenges of long-term fund management under the current situation

Recently, the Global Wealth Management Forum 2023 Shanghai Suhewan Conference was held in Jing ‘an District, Shanghai. With the theme of “Financial Support for Economic Recovery and Global Cooperation”, the conference has invited governments, financial regulators, sovereign wealth funds, representative international and domestic financial institutions and renowned scholars to conduct in-depth exchanges on issues of common concern to all parties in the global economic and financial field, hoping to continuously enhance international mutual understanding, trust and cooperation under the current complex environment. Jing Lei, General Manager of Harvest Fund, delivered a speech at the “Opportunities and Challenges of Long-term Money Management under the current Situation” forum.

Jinglei provides a comprehensive understanding of the long-term money management opportunities and challenges of the current situation. First, he said, the world is facing a high interest rate environment, represented by U.S. debt, now and into next year, and we are facing an era of shrinking risk appetite around the world, and several factors driving inflation are still in place. In terms of opportunities, he said that the understanding and cognition of domestic policy concepts is a core competence that must be possessed in the future development of long-term asset management, and the core point of long-term money management is to develop around fundamentals, around market behavior and around all global asset management areas. Finally, he pointed out that asset management institutions must see the challenges and opportunities facing the future, and promote the direction of data, intelligence, and digital intelligence. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

First of all, the world is facing a high interest rate environment represented by US Treasuries at present and into next year, which will affect the core dimensions of various markets and various assets around the world.

From the historical data, the 1970s and 1980s also faced high inflation and high interest rates. Beginning in 1970 and continuing through the 1980s, dollar rate increases were maintained at very high levels. The U.S. CPI rose from 2% to 6% during 1965-1970, and from 6% to 8% during 1971-1975. Influenced by geopolitics, the CPI in the United States climbed from 8 percent to 13 percent between 1977 and 1981. After that, from 1990 to 2016, globalization accelerated, the inflation ladder went down, and the US debt continued to decline, bringing investors’ risk appetite to rise. From 2016 to 2021, the anti-globalization began, and its landmark event was Brexit in 2016, after which the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet was terminated by the epidemic, and with the expansion of the epidemic, global inflation began to rise. Since April 2022, the Federal Reserve has resumed the rate hike cycle.

We are in an era of shrinking risk appetite around the world.

According to the pace of this round of Fed rate hikes, the current market expects the Fed to raise interest rates until the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter of next year, and the ten-year Treasury bonds are expected to be basically close to the top. But these are current expectations, and it is unclear whether they will hold as the overall economic situation changes next year. As mentioned by many speakers, there are still several factors driving the rise in inflation. First, the trend of anti-globalization continues, the global industrial chain and supply chain are restructured, overseas economies are shifting from focusing on efficiency to focusing on security, supply is shrinking in the short term, and prices are easy to go up but not down. Second, the rise of populism, geopolitical risks continue to rise, and the dividends of peace to trade and production decline. Third, the aging of major economies is accelerating, and the labor force population has entered a period of sharp decline. Fourth, consecutive years of fiscal expansion in major economies, fiscal easing and monetary overshoot combined with the aforementioned factors may prolong the period of high inflation. With the rise of US bond interest rates, during the period from 2015 to 2022, the proportion of equity asset allocation of US enterprise annuity decreased from 58% to 47%, and the proportion of basic asset allocation of bonds and underlying assets dominated by fixed income increased from 29% to 52%. From a global perspective, these risk-free rates are very good rates, but next year global assets may face some unprecedented challenges when exchange rates are included. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

In terms of opportunities

In terms of opportunities, from the perspective of the domestic situation, in the past, the measures and concepts of government policies were viewed from the actual economic operation, but since the 18th National Congress, the 19th and 20th National Congresses have more clearly expounded the policy concepts of the government, and also affected the government’s measures, and then affected the operation of the entire economy. The understanding and cognition of domestic policy concepts is a core ability that must be possessed in the future development of long-term asset management, and the role of this ability is becoming increasingly prominent. From the perspective of decision allocation, classic asset allocation should be from a single asset to multiple assets, and then move forward with multiple assets, and strive for better returns or risk-return cost performance through the creation of capabilities. The choice of asset allocation is an important factor affecting asset returns, and more attention should be paid to the allocation of structural strategies rather than strategic and tactical asset allocation. If the structure is selected correctly, the cost performance ratio of risk returns will certainly be obtained, otherwise, even if the asset allocation of major categories is correct, the returns and risks may not match. In the face of future risks, especially systemic risks as a whole, positivity should be more important than accurate forecasting. The core point of long-term money management is to develop around fundamentals, around market behavior, and around all global asset management areas, and to re-organize and build macro scenarios based on these core elements, so as to increase the understanding of domestic capital markets. In this way, we can not repeat the past history and deal with market fluctuations more calmly. In terms of strong risk management, with the increasing volatility of market structure, traditional assets continue to evolve new risk-return characteristics, and the rapidly expanding asset management product camp requires precision and iterative risk management to achieve product plasticity. At this time, the effectiveness and discipline of risk management by asset management institutions are increasingly important. Only with a strong risk management ability, in order to better complete the customer’s risk return cost-effective target. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Finally, as an asset management institution, it can no longer continue the original concept of relying on a single person and a single fundamental, and it must see the challenges and opportunities faced by asset management institutions in the future, and promote it around the direction of data, intelligence and digital intelligence. Now that we have entered the digital era, the application of data plays an irreplaceable role in investment and research decision-making and risk management. Further to the number of intelligent, now all the global asset management institutions are making a large model, I believe that the number of intelligent ability of asset management institutions will be realized in the next 3-5 years. For investment strategies, it is necessary to focus on macro and strategic scenarios, local computability, data as the core basis, computing power of the platform and models, etc., so that all the original investment research can be transformed from high-quality information into high-quality decisions, so as to continuously improve the win rate of investment decisions and better create sustainable returns for customers. We are also firmly moving in this direction.

由CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）转载而成，来源于中国财富管理50人论坛；编辑/翻译：CXO UNIONCXO联盟小U。

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