【观点】申万菱信董事长陈晓升：看到2024年中美经济客厅里的大象

近日，申万菱信基金董事长陈晓升出席了中国财富管理50人论坛2023年会（第十届）并在主题论坛“投资展望：2024年资产配置与投资策略”上发表题为《大象转身——2024年资产配置展望》的主题演讲。

陈晓升表示，做资产配置有一个非常重要的命题：不能忘记客厅里面大象的存在。我们房间里面的大象在2024年可能变得比较轻松和友好，主要考虑到中国的房地产投资是影响宏观经济的非常重要的变量，中央政府坚决的加杠杆政策，以及新的动能方向非常清楚。而美国可能恰恰相反。他认为，做资产配置是有资产轮动的，申万菱信基金认为2024年资产收益轮动的风叶有三片：第一片风叶是中国财政的加力提效与其他一致性要求；第二片风叶是美国市场超额储蓄的消耗殆尽以及美国财政被压制；第三片风叶是数字贸易的加速。

以下为陈晓升演讲全文。

一、市场、投资、研究——要看到客厅里的大象

今天我分享的主题叫“大象转身”。我们做投资特别是做资产配置，有一个非常重要的命题就是不能忘记客厅里面大象的存在，尽管我们无法亲眼看见它，但这只大象一直存在着。

大象习性特征之一是：当它放松时，两只大耳朵垂下，表明它与你能够友好相处；而当它的耳朵竖立，特别是尾巴也竖起时，它是非常紧张的，有可能会采取攻击性行为。实际上，在2022年年底，我们观察到大象的耳朵和尾巴都竖立起来了，尤其是在权益市场方面。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

二、2024年的中国：大象垂下耳朵

对于2024年中国的资产配置，与仅仅关注最终观点相比，更加重要的是观察有什么因素会驱动2024年的资产配置价格的变化。毫无疑问，2023年A股市场是偏弱的，有内因、也有外因，但内外因都在发生一些边际好转，特别是我们房间里的大象，从2022年的紧张状态可能开始逐渐变得轻松和友好。

影响2024年资产配置的三个方面的因素：第一，中国的房地产投资是影响宏观经济的非常重要的变量，因为房地产对上下游拉动非常大。前段时间我认真听了高善文博士关于房地产投资的研究，他指出到今天为止，中国房地产投资占GDP的比重或许已经低于日本。尽管日本上世纪90年代经历了十年或更长时间房地产泡沫的破灭，但是房地产对整个经济的影响仍然巨大，房地产投资占到日本GDP的比重能够长期维持在7%左右，但是2023年中国的房地产投资占到GDP的比重可能只有6.5%，2024年如果按照线性外推可能到5%。我们需要思考的是，这种趋势是否会持续？是不是中国比过去三十年的日本还要差？有很多研究表明城镇化率是影响中国房地产的重要因素，我国的城镇化率只有65%左右，还有非常大的提升空间；再加上中国经济增长的阶段也完全不同于日本，所以房地产是非常重要的变量。

第二，2024年影响中国市场的因素——中央政府坚决的加杠杆政策。在2023年的上半年并未看到这一政策的迹象，直到7月24日政治局会议以后，中央政府提出一揽子化债方案，包括再融资债、银行贷款置换等一系列政策逐项落地，表明目前中国只有中央政府有能力继续加杠杆。白重恩教授的研究表明过去三年疫情使地方政府承担了大量的负担，根据他的计算，地方政府在三年疫情中总的支出达到5.8万亿元，尽管各种专项债和补贴消化掉了2万亿元，但是还有3.6万亿元没有被消化，这是背在地方政府身上非常沉重的负担。如果中央政府能够解决这3.6万亿元的负担，相信2024年的经济状况会完全扭转过来。而且我们看到了中央经济工作会议已经非常坚决地表明了态度，就是要解决问题，而不是“躺平”，尤其是金融监管总局在统一监管、责任明确以后，其他理财平台的问题解决速度明显加快，为中国市场提供了良好的前景。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

第三，新的动能方向非常清楚。把新的动能概括成两个，第一是数字经济，以智能化为代表的数字经济和新能源、低碳化为代表的绿色经济的发展会带动中国制造业投资向好。申万菱信对中国2024年制造业投资的增长速度6.8%的预测，可能高于市场上非常多的机构。我们没有把基建或者房地产作为2024年固定资产投资的主要增量。

基于这三点，我们认为2024年中国市场的这只“大象”耳朵是垂下来的，它是比较轻松和友好的。

此外，还有积极的因素是物价，老百姓的微观的感受不是看GDP而是看物价，在过去几个月我国的CPI、PPI是负增长的，负的物价增速给人的微观感受是很不好的，因为总收入在下降，哪怕实际的GDP在增长，总收入也是下降的。中央经济工作会议把目标的物价水平也作为单独的指标提出来以后，2024年的状况是会改观的。无往不复，既然有了往下的过程，它不会一直往下的。2024年是闰年，有366天，这多出来的一天值得我们多一点期待。

三、2024年的美国：大象竖起耳朵

关于美国市场，美国恰恰反过来，美国的房间里面那只大象耳朵可能是竖起来的，为什么？

第一，美国的超额储蓄在2024年年初基本用完。中国的疫情是靠5.8万亿元的财政支出来战胜的，但是美国的疫情是靠给老百姓发钱撑起来的。但是2024年年初老百姓的超额储蓄用完了，这是非常重要的约束。

第二，美国的大选，两党的博弈导致财政被挤压，前一段时间拜登政府拟再给乌克兰600亿美元支援，但是没有批准，140亿美元支援给以色列可以，但是给乌克兰不行。2024年美国国内的财政毫无疑问还是会被共和党抑制。当美国的财政、超额储蓄被抑制的时候，美国经济的动力来自于哪里？这是第二个因素。此外，被超额储蓄掩盖的美国居民坏账率正在提升，美国的各种信用卡催收率的提升，值得我们警惕。

美国企业端又是另外的图景。虽然美国市场在加息，美国的企业，但是在过去两三年里美国企业的利息负担没怎么上升。美国的企业非常善于去运用各种杠杆，企业早几年就把融资成本锁定了，利息上升对企业的利润压力显著性不大，但是2024、2025两个年份美国企业的还债压力非常高。当压力大了以后，美国2024年的经济图景可能发生变化。对中国而言，人民币的汇率短期压力可能缓解，中美利差近期也是在收窄，2024年利差一定是收窄的，收窄以后我们的压力就会下降。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

四、对2024年资产配置的看法

最后，基于前面的研究，分享我们对资产配置的观点。

第一，申万菱信开发了自己的投研管理平台——KAP系统，市场上最重要的5家卖方给出的预测，预测2024年的GDP增长率是5.0%。我们的预测可能会略低一些。申万菱信相比市场有更高预期的指标只有两个，一是制造业投资，我们看好2024年中国新经济增长动能带来的制造业投资的增长，我们预测给的是6.8%，市场上给的是6.1%。二是关于PPI和CPI，我们对物价的预期可能比市场的更高一些。中央经济工作会议历史上第一次把实际经济增长和物价分开来表述，以往都是货币供应量要和名义增长相匹配，这是非常重要的政策信号。

第二，中国A股和美股的股权风险溢价两者的差距是历史上最高了，2023年市场看好美股、看低A股，2024年应该反过来了。当钟摆在6点钟的时候我们根本不知道这个钟是往左还是往右，但是钟摆在3点或者9点的时候你可以确定它一定是往下摆的。与股市相比，债市性价比不占优，目前以国债-沪深300股息率衡量股债相对性价比指标已位于相对高位，显示当前债市相对股市性价比仍不突出。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

综上所述，做资产配置是有资产轮动的，比如美林时钟；轮动的观点不重要，关键是要发现“轮动的风叶”，探究推动这个轮动的风叶的驱动力是什么。根据申万菱信基金自己开发的不同类别资产的景气指数的判断，我们认为由三片风叶构成了2024年资产收益轮动。

第一片风叶是中国财政的加力提效与其他一致性要求。第二片风叶是美国市场超额储蓄的消耗殆尽以及美国财政被压制。第三片风叶是数字贸易的加速。美国11月份的黑色星期五，中国的四大平台包括temu、Tiktok、SHEIN和速卖通，在美国黑色星期五的销量接近亚马逊。中国由数字贸易平台、互联网平台做的销售出口，2022年已经占到中国出口的5%，相信其增长速度在2024年会超出所有人预期。

翻译：

Chen Xiaosheng, chairman of Shenwan Lingxin: See the elephant in the living room of Sino-US economy in 2024

Recently, Chen Xiaosheng, chairman of Shenwan Lingxin Fund, attended the China Wealth Management 50 Forum 2023 Annual Meeting (10th session) and delivered a keynote speech entitled “Elephant Turn Around – 2024 Asset Allocation Outlook” at the theme forum “Investment Outlook: 2024 Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy”. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Chen Xiaosheng said that there is a very important proposition to do asset allocation: do not forget the existence of elephants in the living room. The elephant in our room may become more relaxed and friendly in 2024, mainly considering that China’s real estate investment is a very important variable affecting the macro economy, the central government’s determined leverage policy, and the direction of the new momentum is very clear. The opposite may be true in the US. He believes that asset allocation is an asset rotation, Shenwan Lingxin Fund believes that there are three wind blades of asset income rotation in 2024: the first wind blade is China’s financial enhancement efficiency and other consistency requirements; The second blade is the depletion of excess savings in the US market and the suppression of US finances; The third blade is the acceleration of digital trade.

The following is the full text of Chen Xiaosheng’s speech.

Markets, investment, research – see the elephant in the living room

Today I share a topic called “Elephant Turns around”. We do investment, especially asset allocation, there is a very important proposition is not to forget the existence of the elephant in the living room, although we can not see it, but this elephant has always existed.

One of the characteristics of an elephant is that when it is relaxed, its two large ears hang down, indicating that it is friendly with you; And when its ears are up and especially its tail is up, it is very nervous and may act aggressively. In fact, at the end of 2022, we observed that the ears and tail of the elephant were erect, especially when it came to equity markets.

China in 2024: Elephants drop their ears

For China’s asset allocation in 2024, rather than focusing solely on the final view, it is more important to observe what factors will drive changes in asset allocation prices in 2024. There is no doubt that the A-share market in 2023 is weak, there are internal and external reasons, but some marginal improvements are happening both inside and outside, especially the elephant in our room, from the tense state of 2022 May begin to gradually become relaxed and friendly. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

There are three factors affecting the asset allocation in 2024: First, China’s real estate investment is a very important variable affecting the macro economy, because the real estate has a very large pull on the upstream and downstream. Some time ago, I listened carefully to Dr. Gao Shanwen’s research on real estate investment, and he pointed out that as of today, the proportion of real estate investment in China’s GDP may be lower than that of Japan. Although Japan experienced the bursting of the real estate bubble for a decade or more in the 1990s, the impact of real estate on the whole economy is still huge. The proportion of real estate investment in Japan’s GDP can be maintained at about 7% for a long time, but the proportion of China’s real estate investment in GDP may only be 6.5% in 2023. By 2024, it could reach 5% if linear extrapolation is followed. What we need to think about is, will this trend continue? Is China worse than Japan in the last 30 years? Many studies have shown that urbanization rate is an important factor affecting China’s real estate. China’s urbanization rate is only about 65%, and there is still a lot of room for improvement. In addition, the stage of China’s economic growth is completely different from Japan’s, so real estate is a very important variable.

Second, the factor affecting the Chinese market in 2024 – the central government’s determined leverage policy. In the first half of 2023 did not see signs of this policy, until July 24 after the Politburo meeting, the central government proposed a package of debt solutions, including a series of policies such as refinancing debt and bank loan replacement, indicating that only the central government in China has the ability to continue to increase leverage. Professor Bai Chongen’s research shows that in the past three years, the epidemic has made local governments bear a lot of burdens. According to his calculation, the total expenditure of local governments in the three-year epidemic has reached 5.8 trillion yuan. Although various special debts and subsidies have absorbed 2 trillion yuan, 3.6 trillion yuan has not been absorbed, which is a very heavy burden on local governments. If the central government can solve the burden of 3.6 trillion yuan, it is believed that the economic situation will be completely reversed in 2024. Moreover, we have seen that the Central Economic Work Conference has been very firmly stated that it is to solve the problem, rather than “lying flat”, especially after the Financial Supervision Administration has unified supervision and clear responsibilities, the problem solving speed of other financial platforms has been significantly accelerated, providing a good prospect for the Chinese market.

Third, the direction of the new kinetic energy is clear. The new driving forces are summarized into two, the first is the digital economy, the development of the digital economy represented by intelligence and the green economy represented by new energy and low-carbon will drive the investment in China’s manufacturing industry. Shen Wanlingxin’s forecast of 6.8 per cent growth in China’s manufacturing investment in 2024 is probably higher than very many institutions in the market. We do not include infrastructure or real estate as the main increase in fixed asset investment in 2024.

Based on these three points, we believe that the ears of this “elephant” in the Chinese market in 2024 are hanging down, and it is relatively relaxed and friendly.

In addition, there is a positive factor is the price, the people’s micro feeling is not to look at GDP but to look at the price, in the past few months China’s CPI, PPI is negative growth, negative price growth gives people the micro feeling is very bad, because the total income is declining, even if the actual GDP is growing, the total income is also declining. After the Central Economic Work Conference also put forward the target price level as a separate indicator, the situation will change in 2024. There is no way to go, and since there is a downward process, it will not go all the way down. 2024 is a leap year, with 366 days, and that extra day is worth looking forward to.

America in 2024: The elephant cocks its ears

About the American market, the United States is exactly the opposite, the elephant’s ears in the United States room may be upright, why?

First, America’s excess savings will be almost exhausted by the beginning of 2024. The epidemic in China was overcome by a fiscal expenditure of 5.8 trillion yuan, but the epidemic in the United States was sustained by giving money to the people. But at the beginning of 2024, people’s excess savings will be used up, which is a very important constraint. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Second, the election in the United States, the game between the two parties led to the financial squeeze, some time ago, the Biden administration planned to give Ukraine another 60 billion US dollars in support, but did not approve, 14 billion US dollars in support to Israel, but not to Ukraine. America’s domestic finances will no doubt be constrained by the Republicans in 2024. Where does the US economy come from when its fiscal and excess savings are suppressed? This is the second factor. In addition, the bad debt rate of American residents, which is covered by excess savings, is increasing, and the increase in the collection rate of various credit cards in the United States is worthy of our vigilance.

Corporate America is a different story. Although the US market is raising interest rates, the US corporate interest burden has not risen much in the last two or three years. American enterprises are very good at using all kinds of leverage, and they have locked their financing costs several years earlier. The rise in interest rates has little significant pressure on corporate profits, but the debt repayment pressure of American enterprises is very high in 2024 and 2025. As the pressure builds, the US economic picture in 2024 could change. For China, the short-term pressure on the RMB exchange rate may ease, and the interest rate differential between China and the United States is also narrowing recently, and the interest rate differential will definitely narrow in 2024, and the pressure on us will decrease after the narrowing.

Views on asset allocation in 2024

Finally, based on the previous research, we share our views on asset allocation.

First, Shen Wanlingxin has developed its own investment research management platform – KAP system, and the forecast given by the five most important sellers in the market predicts that the GDP growth rate in 2024 is 5.0%. Our forecast may be slightly lower. There are only two indicators that have higher expectations than the market, one is manufacturing investment, we are optimistic about the growth of manufacturing investment brought by China’s new economic growth momentum in 2024, we forecast to 6.8%, and the market gave 6.1%. Second, regarding PPI and CPI, our price expectations may be higher than the market’s. For the first time in the history of the Central Economic Work Conference, real economic growth and prices were expressed separately. In the past, the money supply should match nominal growth, which is a very important policy signal. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Second, the gap between the equity risk premium of China A shares and US shares is the highest in history, and the market is optimistic about US stocks in 2023 and pessimistic about A shares in 2024, and it should be reversed. When the pendulum is at 6 o ‘clock we don’t know if the clock is going left or right, but when the pendulum is at 3 o ‘clock or 9 o ‘clock you can be sure it is going down. Compared with the stock market, the cost performance of the bond market is not superior, at present, the index of the relative cost performance of stocks and bonds is at a relatively high level, indicating that the current cost performance of the bond market relative to the stock market is still not outstanding.

To sum up, asset allocation is asset rotation, such as Merrill Lynch clock; The point of view of wheel motion is not important, the key is to discover the “wheel blade” and explore what is the driving force of the wind blade that drives this wheel motion. According to the judgment of the prosperity index of different types of assets developed by Shenwan Lingxin Fund, we believe that three wind blades constitute the rotation of asset returns in 2024.

The first leaf is China’s fiscal enhancement efficiency and other consistency requirements. The second blade is the depletion of excess savings in the US market and the suppression of US finances. The third blade is the acceleration of digital trade. On Black Friday in the United States in November, the four major platforms in China, including temu, Tiktok, SHEIN and AliExpress, were close to Amazon in Black Friday sales in the United States. China’s sales exports by digital trade platforms and Internet platforms have accounted for 5% of China’s exports in 2022, and it is believed that its growth rate will exceed all expectations in 2024. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

由CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）转载而成，来源于中国财富管理50人论坛，作者：陈晓升；编辑/翻译：CXO UNIONCXO联盟小U。

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