【观点】中国进出口银行副行长张文才：世界经济复苏面临的五大挑战

10月21日下午，中国进出口银行副行长张文才在全球财富管理论坛•2023上海苏河湾大会的主题论坛“全球经济复苏的挑战与应对”上发表主题演讲。

张文才表示，当前全球通胀水平整体回落，消费服务业表现较为强劲，但紧缩货币政策负面影响愈发明显，单边主义和保护主义显著加剧，地缘政治冲突不断，经济增长出现走弱态势。他认为，未来一段时间，世界经济复苏面临五大挑战。一是全球贸易投资遭遇逆风，二是高利率环境加大潜在的风险；三是地缘政治冲突持续不断；四是气候变化威胁可持续发展；五是发展中国家面临融资鸿沟。他表示，需要以更加开放包容的态度，凝心聚力画好互利共赢的“同心圆”：第一，推动开放合作，营造更加适宜的发展环境；第二，坚持多边主义，共同维护世界和平与发展；第三，注重安全发展，防范化解经济金融风险；第四，强化协同发力，着力弥补发展融资缺口；第五，加大支持力度，推动经济绿色低碳发展。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

我围绕“全球经济复苏的挑战与应对”这一主题，与大家分享一些个人的思考和看法。

一、世界经济复苏主要面临的五大挑战

当前，全球通胀水平整体回落，消费和服务业表现较为强劲，世界经济得以延续复苏态势。但紧缩货币政策的负面影响愈发明显，单边主义和保护主义显著加剧，地缘政治冲突不断，世界经济增长动能呈现走弱态势。据国际货币基金组织10月最新预测，今年全球经济增速为3.0%，较去年下降0.5个百分点，更是低于过去20年3.8%的平均水平，明年增速将进一步降至2.9%。未来一段时间，世界经济复苏主要面临五大挑战。

一是全球贸易投资遭遇逆风。近年来逆全球化思潮抬头，导致贸易壁垒增多和贸易关系碎片化，产业布局政治化色彩渐浓，加之紧缩货币政策抑制终端需求和制造业投资，全球贸易和跨境投资增长明显放缓。世贸组织表示，预计今年全球商品贸易额仅增长0.8%，增速较2022年下降2.2个百分点。

二是高利率环境加大潜在风险。尽管主要经济体加息周期已近尾声，但高利率环境或将持续较长时间。全球流动性持续收紧，被称为全球资产定价之“锚”的美国10年期国债收益率不断上升，近期触及5%整数关口，创16年来新高。高利率环境下，政府和私营部门偿债压力骤增，中小银行经营风险明显上升。同时，跨境资本流动加剧，从新兴市场流出的资金规模不断扩大，全球金融风险持续累积。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

三是地缘政治冲突持续不断。俄乌冲突尚未停歇，巴以冲突再次爆发。本轮巴以冲突已致超5000人遇难，加沙地带数十万人流离失所，引发新的人道主义灾难。作为世界重要的能源产地，中东地区局势充满变数。一方面，地缘冲突限制粮食、能源等战略物资的生产和跨境贸易，加剧大宗商品价格波动。另一方面，地缘政治方面的不确定性导致一些国家调整对外政策，跨国企业降低风险偏好，进一步阻碍全球经贸合作与经济复苏。

四是气候变化威胁可持续发展。受经济复苏乏力、地缘政治冲突加剧等不利因素影响，全球碳减排和绿色转型步伐有所放缓，世界经济持续面临气候变化挑战。据世界气象组织报告，近年气候灾害发生的频率是半个世纪前的4至5倍，造成的损失更是增至7倍左右。全球气温可能在未来5年内突破《巴黎协定》中规定的升温阈值。随着气候变化加剧，全球极端天气事件可能更加频繁，或将严重制约全球经济发展。

五是发展中国家面临融资鸿沟。全球金融环境收紧增加发展中国家和低收入经济体的再融资压力，一些国家面临国际收支恶化、货币贬值、融资难度加大等多重困难。繁重的利息支出和高昂的借贷成本增加这些国家债务负担，影响经济发展并加大融资缺口。据联合国贸发会议数据，在可持续发展领域，发展中国家的年度资金缺口就从2015年的2.5万亿美元增加到了如今的4万亿美元。

二、以更加开放包容的态度，凝心聚力画好互利共赢的“同心圆”

全球经济复苏进程中的各种挑战，不仅关乎各国利益，也影响着人类的共同未来。我们需要以更加开放包容的态度，凝心聚力画好互利共赢的“同心圆”。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

第一，推动开放合作，营造更加适宜的发展环境。在刚刚召开的第三届“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛上，习近平主席宣布了中国支持高质量共建“一带一路”的八项行动，将为各国开放合作带来新机遇。习近平主席强调，人类是相互依存的命运共同体，只有合作共赢才能办成事、办好事、办大事。尽管全球经济开放发展进程严重受阻，但应当看到，经济全球化仍是不可阻挡的历史潮流。要摒弃零和博弈与冷战思维，减少贸易和投资壁垒，反对单边制裁、经济胁迫与“脱钩断链”，营造更加开放、公平、有利于发展的经贸环境。

第二，坚持多边主义，共同维护世界和平与发展。从历史和现实看，集团政治和阵营对抗，只会割裂世界，阻碍全球发展和人类进步。只有践行和维护多边主义，让团结代替分裂、合作代替对抗、包容代替排他，世界各国才能携手应对各种全球性问题和挑战，全球经济才能实现更加包容、更加普惠、更有韧性的发展。习近平主席提出构建人类命运共同体理念、全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议、全球文明倡议，为破解全球发展难题贡献了中国方案和中国智慧。

第三，注重安全发展，防范化解经济金融风险。全球面临的金融脆弱性风险加剧，统筹好金融发展与安全的重要性和紧迫性更为突出。各国需要进一步筑牢金融安全底线，做好风险防范化解工作。既要练好内功，不断完善自身金融体系和金融监管制度，加强对风险易发多发领域的监测预警，同时注重运用大数据、人工智能、云计算等新兴技术，提高风险识别、处置和应对能力。也要加强协作，促进国际宏观政策协调，把握好政策力度和节奏，强化跨境资本流动、维护金融稳定等领域的监管合作。按照“共同行动、公平负担”的基本原则，改革完善现有的国际债务处置规则，动员多边和私人债权人更多参与债务处置。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

第四，强化协同发力，着力弥补发展融资缺口。发展融资不足是制约发展中国家经济增长的重要因素，需要社会各方加强合作，共同为发展中国家提供充足的资金支持。支持主体上，着力发挥国际金融机构、政策性开发性金融机构的引领和示范作用，动员更多社会资本和民间资本参与。支持领域上，确保资金用在“刀刃”上，聚焦减贫、气候变化和绿色发展、工业化、数字经济、互联互通等重点领域精准发力。支持方式上，既注重通过第三方市场合作等方式创新融资模式，形成多元化支持合力，也要突出融资与融智并举，帮助发展中国家加强能力建设，增强其内生发展动力。

第五，加大支持力度，推动经济绿色低碳发展。面对日益严峻的气候环境挑战，绿色发展已成为全球共识，实现这一目标将产生巨量的资金需求，包括金融机构在内的各方要持续加大对绿色低碳发展的支持力度。一方面，坚持以绿色发展理念为引领，将ESG要求贯穿业务拓展、项目准备、项目实施、运营管理，以及后评价等全流程各环节。另一方面，创新金融产品和服务，持续完善涵盖信贷、债券、投资、咨询等多元化产品体系，更好满足清洁能源、绿色制造、节能低碳等领域的资金需求，推动经济绿色化转型和发展。

中国进出口银行成立29年以来，始终致力于支持对外经贸投资发展和国际经济合作。“一带一路”倡议提出十年来，贷款项目累计拉动投资超过4000亿美元，带动贸易超过2万亿美元，积极助力区域和全球经济发展。

习近平主席在本届“一带一路”高峰论坛宣布，中国进出口银行将设立3500亿元人民币融资窗口，支持共建“一带一路”项目。未来，我们将继续秉持共商共建共享原则，以高标准、可持续、惠民生为目标，为“一带一路”建设高质量发展提供支撑和助力。中国进出口银行也将一如既往，与各方加强交流合作，为推动全球经济复苏和可持续发展贡献更多力量！ CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

翻译：

Zhang Wencai, Vice President of the Export-Import Bank of China: Five major challenges facing the world economic recovery

On the afternoon of October 21, Zhang Wencai, Vice President of the Export-Import Bank of China, delivered a keynote speech at the theme forum “Challenges and Responses to Global Economic Recovery” of the Global Wealth Management Forum 2023 Shanghai Suhewan Conference.

Zhang Wencai said that at present, the overall global inflation level has fallen, and the performance of consumer services is relatively strong, but the negative impact of tight monetary policies is becoming more and more obvious, unilateralism and protectionism are significantly intensified, geopolitical conflicts are constant, and economic growth is weakening. He believes that in the coming period of time, the world economic recovery faces five major challenges. First, global trade and investment encountered headwinds, and second, the high interest rate environment increased potential risks; Third, geopolitical conflicts persist. Fourth, climate change threatens sustainable development; Fifth, developing countries face a financing gap. He said that we need to adopt a more open and inclusive attitude to draw concentric circles of mutual benefit and win-win results. First, we need to promote openness and cooperation to create a more suitable development environment. Second, we should uphold multilateralism and jointly safeguard world peace and development. Third, pay attention to safe development, prevent and defuse economic and financial risks; Fourth, strengthen coordinated efforts to bridge the gap in development financing. Fifth, we need to increase support to promote green and low-carbon economic development.

I would like to share with you some of my thoughts and views on the theme “Challenges and Responses to Global Economic Recovery”.

I. Five major challenges to world economic recovery

At present, the overall level of global inflation has fallen, and the performance of consumption and services is relatively strong, and the world economy has continued to recover. However, the negative impact of tight monetary policy is becoming more and more obvious, unilateralism and protectionism are significantly intensified, geopolitical conflicts continue, and the momentum of world economic growth is weakening. According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund in October, the global economic growth this year will be 3.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from last year, it is lower than the average of 3.8% in the past 20 years, and the growth rate will further drop to 2.9% next year. For some time to come, world economic recovery faces five major challenges. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

First, global trade and investment are facing headwinds. In recent years, the rise of anti-globalization has led to increased trade barriers and fragmented trade relations, and increasingly politicized industrial layout. Coupled with tight monetary policies, the growth of global trade and cross-border investment has slowed down significantly. World trade in goods is expected to grow by only 0.8 per cent this year, 2.2 percentage points lower than in 2022, the WTO said.

Second, the high interest rate environment increases potential risks. Although the interest rate hike cycle in major economies has come to an end, the high interest rate environment may persist for a long time. Global liquidity has continued to tighten and the US 10-year Treasury yield, known as the anchor of global asset pricing, has been rising, recently hitting the round 5 per cent mark, a 16-year high. In the high interest rate environment, the pressure of the government and the private sector to repay debt has increased sharply, and the operating risk of small and medium-sized banks has increased significantly. At the same time, cross-border capital flows have intensified, capital outflows from emerging markets have been expanding, and global financial risks have continued to accumulate.

Third, geopolitical conflicts persist. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not ceased, and the conflict between Palestine and Israel has broken out again. The conflict has killed more than 5,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands in Gaza, creating a new humanitarian disaster. As an important source of energy in the world, the situation in the Middle East is full of variables. On the one hand, geopolitical conflicts restrict the production and cross-border trade of strategic materials such as food and energy, exacerbating the volatility of commodity prices. On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainties have led some countries to adjust their foreign policies and multinational enterprises to reduce their risk appetite, further hindering global economic and trade cooperation and economic recovery. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Fourth, climate change threatens sustainable development. Affected by weak economic recovery and intensifying geopolitical conflicts, the pace of global carbon emission reduction and green transformation has slowed down, and the world economy continues to face the challenge of climate change. According to the report of the World Meteorological Organization, the frequency of climate disasters in recent years is four to five times that of half a century ago, and the damage caused by them has increased to about seven times. Global temperatures could breach the warming threshold set in the Paris Agreement within the next five years. As climate change intensifies, extreme weather events around the world are likely to become more frequent, potentially severely constraining global economic development.

Fifth, developing countries face a financing gap. The tightening of the global financial environment has increased the refinancing pressure on developing countries and low-income economies, and some countries are faced with multiple difficulties such as deteriorating balance of payments, currency depreciation and increased financing difficulties. Heavy interest payments and high borrowing costs add to these countries’ debt burdens, affecting economic development and widening financing gaps. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the annual financing gap for developing countries in the field of sustainable development has increased from $2.5 trillion in 2015 to $4 trillion today.

2. With a more open and inclusive attitude, we should draw concentric circles for mutual benefit and win-win results.

The challenges in the process of global economic recovery not only concern the interests of all countries, but also affect the common future of mankind. We need to adopt a more open and inclusive attitude and draw concentric circles for mutual benefit.

First, we need to promote openness and cooperation and foster a more favorable development environment. Although the process of opening up and development of the global economy has been seriously hindered, it should be noted that economic globalization remains an irresistible historical trend. We should abandon the zero-sum game and Cold War mentality, reduce trade and investment barriers, oppose unilateral sanctions, economic coercion and “decoupling and chain breaking”, and foster a more open, fair and development-friendly economic and trade environment. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Second, we should uphold multilateralism and jointly safeguard world peace and development. Judging from history and reality, bloc politics and confrontation between camps will only divide the world and hinder global development and human progress. Only by practicing and upholding multilateralism, replacing division with unity, confrontation with cooperation and exclusion with inclusiveness, can countries in the world work together to address various global issues and challenges, and can the global economy achieve more inclusive, inclusive and resilient development.

Third, we should pay attention to safe development and prevent and defuse economic and financial risks. As the risks of financial fragility have intensified, the importance and urgency of balancing financial development and security have become more prominent. Countries need to further strengthen the bottom line of financial security and do a good job in preventing and defusing risks. We need to improve our own financial system and financial regulatory system, strengthen monitoring and early warning in areas prone to frequent risks, and focus on using emerging technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence and cloud computing to improve our ability to identify, handle and respond to risks. We should also step up coordination, promote international macro policy coordination, keep the intensity and pace of policies right, and strengthen regulatory cooperation in areas such as cross-border capital flows and financial stability. In accordance with the basic principle of “joint action and fair burden”, reform and improve the existing international debt disposal rules, and mobilize multilateral and private creditors to participate more in debt disposal. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Fourth, we need to strengthen coordinated efforts to bridge the gap in development financing. Insufficient financing for development is an important factor restricting the economic growth of developing countries. It is necessary for all parties in society to strengthen cooperation and jointly provide adequate financial support for developing countries. As for the main body of support, we will strive to give full play to the leading and exemplary role of international financial institutions and policy-oriented development financial institutions, and mobilize more social and private capital to participate. In terms of support areas, ensure that funds are used in the “cutting edge”, focusing on poverty reduction, climate change and green development, industrialization, digital economy, connectivity and other key areas of precise efforts. In terms of support methods, we should not only focus on innovating financing models through third-party market cooperation and other means to form diversified support forces, but also focus on financing and pooling wisdom to help developing countries strengthen capacity building and enhance their internal development momentum.

Fifth, we need to increase support to promote green and low-carbon economic development. In the face of increasingly severe climate and environmental challenges, green development has become a global consensus, and achieving this goal will generate a huge amount of capital needs, including financial institutions, all parties should continue to increase their support for green and low-carbon development. On the one hand, we adhere to the green development concept as the guidance, the ESG requirements throughout the whole process of business development, project preparation, project implementation, operation management, and post-evaluation. On the other hand, we will innovate financial products and services, continue to improve the diversified product system covering credit, bonds, investment and consulting, and better meet the capital needs of clean energy, green manufacturing, energy conservation and low-carbon fields, and promote the transformation and development of the green economy.

Since its establishment 29 years ago, the Export-Import Bank of China has been committed to supporting foreign trade, investment, development and international economic cooperation. In the ten years since the Belt and Road Initiative was put forward, loan projects have generated more than US $400 billion in investment and US $2 trillion in trade, contributing to regional and global economic development.

In the future, we will continue to uphold the principle of extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits, and strive for high standards, sustainability and people’s well-being to provide support and impetus for high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative. The Export-Import Bank of China will, as always, strengthen exchanges and cooperation with all parties and contribute more to global economic recovery and sustainable development. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

由CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）转载而成，来源于中国财富管理50人论坛；编辑/翻译：CXO UNIONCXO联盟小U。

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