【观点】北京大学光华管理学院院长刘俏：金融领域配置资源时应关注哪些节点行业或关键领域？

12月7日，北京大学光华管理学院院长刘俏在中国国际金融学会年会作主旨演讲。

刘俏认为，我国经济增长主要依靠要素投入，资本和劳动力的投入，以及全要素生产率的增长。随着中国的投资大周期进入尾声，同时劳动力红利的逐渐消失，全要素生产率的增长变得重要。全要素生产率的增长与投资率之间是非常强的正向关系，基本上投资增长10%，全要素生产率增长1.18%。如果中国未来要保持比较高的全要素生产率的增速，投资率一定要保持在比较高的水平上。要聚焦大量资金去投资节点行业，带来上下游市场主体的崛起，最终使得中国经济产生很大的溢出效应。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

在中国，有利于技术进步或者资源配置效率提升的节点行业或者关键的领域有两种，一种是支撑未来全要素生产率不断进步的新兴产业，另一种是制约全要素生产率提升和资源配置效率提升的环节和领域。对此，他提出了四个产业和领域。一是碳中和产业，二是消费产业，三是价值链产业，四是涉及到共同富裕的收入分配不平等的城乡二元结构。

此外，在需要大量投资来提升全要素生产率的增速的情况下，可以重新思考财政政策甚至包括货币政策，比如，提高国债的占比，不仅可以支撑节点行业的崛起，同时也能带来示范效应。

我主要讲几个事情，第一点对中国经济的判断，到底经济增长未来的空间有多大，过程中稍微谈一下金融在支持实体经济，支持高质量发展有什么样的着力点，最后从政策层面上谈一些想法，保险资本市场，也包括货币，财政政策该怎么去更好地在目前状态下回应内部外部的一些迫切的需求。

一、全要素生产率的增长变得日益重要

大家关心中国经济的话最近有两种观点，一种还是比较悲观，另外一种是比较乐观，就是基本面在逐渐向好。大家看到，2015年之后我们GDP就跌破了7%，疫情三年平均是4.5%，现在大家讲保5%，保5%为什么重要？如果未来十几年保持5%左右的增长，2035年大致人均GDP可以翻一番，我们理解的中国式现代化或者基本实现社会主义现代化，对应GDP的数字大致是总量人均比2020年翻一番的这样一个概念。所以5%变得非常重要。

背后大家看到了，回到增长理论，我们增长主要是靠要素投入，资本还有劳动力的投入，再加上全要素生产率就是TFP的增长，中国过了投资大周期，已经进入了尾声，同时劳动力红利在逐渐消失，基本上第三个贡献增长的因子，就是全要素生产率，它的增长就变得很重要。但全要素生产率一般来讲占到一个国家40%左右的增长，改革开放前三个十年，我们保持4%以上的全要素生产率的增速，中国的GDP基本上10%的增长，没有任何悬念，跟现代增长理论下面所对应的经典的实证事实基本是吻合的。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

但本世纪第二个十年，中国完成工业化了，我自己判断已经完成工业化了，就是制造业已经变成全世界最大的制造业大国，在完成工业化之后，全要素生产率降下来了，现在各种各样的算法，数字差异都比较大，悲观来说已经跌破1%了，我们自己测算了一下可能至少在2%以内，现在平均1.8%、1.9%，没有疫情三年的话，可能会高一点，考虑之后可能会更低一些。现在核心的判断取决于中国在未来十几年时间有没有可能找到新的增长动能，让全要素生产率增长能保持一个更高的水平，能回到2.5%甚至更高一点，这样我们可能在未来保持一个5%左右的长期增长率，从而2035年基本实现社会主义现代化它有了一个保障。

但这个问题判断比较悲观的，一般看全球变迁的规律，美国有最好的技术研究、最好的研发的实力，还有沉淀也比较丰厚，但美国本世纪以来全要素生产率增速在1%以内，主要原因还是在于它的服务业，第三产业占比太高，这种情况下，没有很大的规模经济，没有很大的有利于推进全要素生产率的产业来支撑，所以它基本上是0.7%或者0.5%左右的全要素生产率增速。看日本、德国这样的一些工业化的国家，基本在工业化之后都面临这样的挑战。为什么美国在过去一段时间其实长期增长率在2%左右，因为它全要素生产率占40%~50%的贡献，但它本身水平低于1%的，这是大家看到的实证上的事实。

二、全要素生产率的增长与投资率之间是非常强的正向关系

中国有没有可能创造一个不一样的发展的路径？这是我们讲的中国式现代化很核心的出发点。因为按照一般来讲，比如，美国西北大学宏观经济学者Robert Gordon的观点，他认为所有的重要推动生产率增长的这些发明创造在第二次工业革命，就是1870—1970年这段时间都已经发明出来了，包括电的使用，包括下水道、高速公路、铁路甚至包括互联网这样一些东西，以后的发明他认为都是边际性的贡献，意味着未来全世界都面临生产率的挑战，美国、欧盟国家率先受到这种挑战的冲击，他倒没有讲中国，但按他的逻辑中国现在可能进入这样的阶段了，就是我们生产率增长可能受到很严重的挑战。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

全要素生产率的增长跟投资率之间是非常强的正向关系，基本上投资增长10%，全要素生产率增长1.18%。如果中国未来要保持比较高的全要素生产率的增速，我们投资率一定要保持在比较高的水平上，这一点是基于经验数据，基于典型的实证事实可以得到的判断。我们投什么地方？因为传统上讲过去有一个基础设施建设，房地产大周期，中国投资我们回到中国增长模式，大家看到生产网络，根据投入产出表绘制的图，每个点都是一些行业，国家统计局的二级行业153个，每个行业之间因为上下游关系形成一个网状的结构。过去基本上是国家通过产业链政策，通过五年规划确定了一些核心的关键的节点行业，大量资源进去带动上下游的市场主体的出现，最后把网络变得内生的越来越密，而且在密度最高的行业是我们讲的节点行业。过去看到房地产是典型的节点行业，我们统计了一下，153个二级行业里面只有38个行业跟房地产没有直接间接的连接，换句话讲超过100多个行业是有关系的，有50多个行业关系还比较直接，这种情况下如果房地产行业投资下滑，它对整体经济的冲击就比较大。

我们讲高铁，它本身资本回报并不是很高，但高铁行业带动大量上下游，它的产业链条特别长。这种情况下它是典型的节点行业。我们聚焦大量资金去投资这种节点行业，它带来上下游市场主体的崛起，最终使得中国经济产生很大的溢出效应，这是中国增长模式和美国的增长模式不太一样的地方，因为节点行业投资对社会回报很高，对整体经济影响比较大，这种情况下国有企业来牵头进行资源配置，起到纯粹市场经济作用下起不到的作用，这点也是中国发展的特点，也是我们模式里面相对优势的环节。

三、未来能产生强大外溢效应的节点产业是什么？

但现在问题来了，未来十几年时间我们还有没有节点行业？我们的节点行业是什么？这样我们怎么去引导稀缺的资源向资金化，从金融角度来讲，能够配置到这些未来的能够支撑中国经济产生一个强大的外溢效应，能够对总体经济增长有一个背书效果的行业，这些行业是什么行业？这个问题就脱颖而出了。

基本回归到我们看到哪些是重大的一些关键领域，哪些是我们在掣肘我们生产率提升的薄弱环节，这是我们未来投资的重点领域也是金融资源配置要侧重的环节。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

这个答案没有现成的哪些行业可以挑出来，这里可以做一个思考。我们看一下中国最好的上市公司，最大市值的上市公司的排行榜，过去20多年时间变化很大，但如果设想，2035年什么样的企业可能会出现在中国市值最大的这10个企业的榜单上，这个问题的回答本身给我们带来很多可能的线索，如果是现在这些企业，大企业过十几年之后依然在排行榜上，我想我们产业结构调整或者中国经济变化本身没有太大的一些值得期待的空间，但如果2035年这10个空我们填起来每个空都很困难，我想可能意味着未来其实有很多种可能性，我们讲到新的产业会崛起，新的企业会步入到中国的世界级的行业领袖的序列里面，大家讲的比较多的是新能源、AI、大数据、人工智能所带来的一些可能性，就是AI+带来的可能性，包括我们讲的民生，跟医疗健康、消费品相关的这样一些行业，有可能在2035年崛起。

这些行业或者重点问题我简单做一点小的预测，这是我们金融领域在配置资源的时候应该关注的节点行业或者关键的领域。

什么样的行业有利于技术进步或者资源配置效率提升，就是我们讲到的全要素生产率增速的重要来源。在中国一种是支撑我们未来全要素生产率不断进步的这样一些新兴的产业，另外就是我们过往的我们做的不好的地方，就是在制约我们全要素生产率提升，制约我们资源配置效率提升的这样一些环节和领域，这些合在一起之后都构成未来我们需要去投资、需要去花钱、需要去配置资源去解决问题的这样一些关键的领域了。

我提四个领域。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

（一）碳中和产业

第一个是碳中和。

这也是今天很重要的主题，还有数字化转型带来的一些可能性，这里面逻辑背景还是比较清晰。我们讲到文明跟文明之间要注意一个区隔，可能用的能源还有人和人之间交互的方式、强度是区别不同文明水平的很重要的两个特征。我们讲工业文明是对人类文明水平极大的一个提升，就是工业革命，用化石能源，我们讲到的现代的交通设施，包括通讯设施的崛起是人跟人之间互动摆脱了物理位置的限制。现在我们面临一个新的文明的开端，因为我们能源在发生变化，化石能源可能很难再支撑未来可持续的发展，我们不讲碳中和这个事情，不讲气候变化这个事情，煤再怎么用按目前的节奏也就用两百年左右，石油还用四十到五十年，现在需要考虑全世界经济发展能源该怎么转型？

同时人跟人之间交互，因为AI技术的突破，因为大数据突破，因为应用场景，脑机接口这些技术性突破，算力的突破，有可能甚至会突破时间的约束，人一天可能不止24个小时，可能有数字身份或者其他的一些承载的形式，可以从事这方面的一些事情把你时间给拓展。这种情况下会带来什么样的人类文明发展的结果？这个我不敢预测，因为这个涉及到伦理学，经济学范式可能有巨大的突破，但至少有一点跟过往会不一样，这背后会带来巨大的投资的空间，这一点我们从中国未来找到新的增长动能角度讲碳中和，还有我们讲到的数字转型，包括人工智能这块可能是我们不能够忽略的。

比如，碳中和在2050年大致有将近三百万亿的投资，就是巴黎协定规定的时间，这样完全可以抵消我们因为房地产或者其他一些基础设施固定资产投资带来的下滑的这部分，但这块我们怎么去找到未来的路径？我想在未来需要去思考也需要做这方面的探索。

（二）消费产业

第二个是消费。

没有任何一个现代化的国家居民消费率只占到GDP的40%都不到，现在我国居民消费率是占GDP的38%，日本、美国在60%以上，美国高达70%。服务消费只占到整个消费的不到50%，可能到2035年居民消费率应该会提高到60%以上，服务消费应该会占到居民消费的60%以上。相关的供给端的投资、产业的崛起是有相当大空间的，这里面包括我们讲到的特别是服务消费，金融服务是一种消费，医疗健康、文化娱乐等等都是我们讲到未来服务消费的重点，这块我们供给端投资是严重不足的。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

有一点，我们居民消费率低还有很大原因在于我们居民可支配收入占到GDP的比重比较低，我们现在是43%，未来怎么提高，一方面是劳动生产率的提升，第一次分配、第二次分配，第三次分配提升居民的可支配收入，但另外一点可能金融行业也有责任在里面，现在我们43%的居民可支配收入的GDP占比里面，来自于财产性收入的比例只有4%，中国的居民的财产性收入占GDP的4%，这个数字占美国16%，我们投房地产、股票市场，各种各样储蓄产品，金融产品，我们是4%的GDP的财产性收入，如果提高到美国水平，到16%，加12%，意味着中国居民的可支配收入能达到55%以上，单靠这样一个环节，对未来我们讲到消费的崛起，对中国产业结构的重塑会带来很多可能的机会。

（三）价值链产业

第三个是价值链。

价值链涉及到制造业要保持的占比，高端制造业、装备制造业要保持一定的比例，但全球贸易有一个特点，基本是中间品的进出口占到全球贸易量的比重比较高，全球产业链或者供应链变的很重要，这种情况下一个国家在全球价值链上的位置就变的很重要，你需要在上游，上游意味着你对国外的中间品，就是原材料、核心零部件依赖度比较低。中国目前的情况上游程度衡量我们是0.01，大概全世界工业化国家平均是0.04，美国是0.29，美国明显在全球价值链上游，向全球提供中间品、核心的底层技术、零部件，而我们在中游甚至偏下游，未来怎么向上游做这种迈进？就需要大量的投资，比如研发的投资。

我们现在研发强度上来了，去年达到3万亿人民币，GDP占比2.54%，但我们研发机构不合理，就是基础研究占比太低，我们基础研究只占到研发的6.3%，这是去年的数字，全国是两千亿人民币的基础研究的投入，美国去年是一万亿人民币，是我们的5倍，而且美国过去的60年一直是这样一种强度在投基础科学的研究，我们这方面最近几年开始发力了，但我们的沉淀、积累以及投资强度严重不足的。

未来政策的角度讲有没有可能我们能把基础研究的投资也增加到一万亿人民币，如果说财政吃力的话，能不能通过特别国债的发行每年发一万亿的特别国债，就支持基础研究，通过这种方式久久为功，10年、20年时间让我们底层的技术，基础科学领域有重大的突破。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

（四）共同富裕的收入分配不平等

第四个涉及到共同富裕的收入分配不平等。

我们有庞大的一个流动的群体，现在工作贫富分配不平等主要体现在城乡二元结构，城乡二元结构一方面是农业的就业人员劳动生产率很低，农业贡献7.7%的GDP，但用了将近25%的劳动力人口，生产率非常低，未来大量农业基础人员需要向第二、第三产业迁移，大概到2035年有将近1.4亿人迁移到别的行业，同时现在在城市有18%的人口，相当于2.55亿人有常住人口但没有户籍，合在一起是4亿人口，这4亿人未来如果在城市待下来需要解决住房问题、公共服务问题、子女教学问题，也需要有足够多产业变迁可能性，提供足够多就业机会，我们把这个理解为负担，但换个角度讲人的大量的汇聚会产生大量的新增的行业崛起的可能性，这种背后其实我觉得它反而可能成为未来投资的重点，现在讲比如租赁住房的建设，讲未来跟这个群体相对应的公共服务的体系的建设本身，它不一定是一个负担，它可能是未来增长的这样一个来源，可能金融资源在这方面也可以做一些配置。

四、财政方面还可以怎样发力？

最后我对政策本身有一个想法，我们刚才提到中国处于大变革的时代，这个时代我们需要大量投资来提升我们全要素生产率的增速，这种情况下我觉得我们财政政策甚至包括货币政策可以重新思考，我个人感觉财政政策可以更加激进一些，美国国债的负担对全世界的冲击，我们现在整个债务占GDP比重，按最新数据或者最宽的一个维度来讲，国债25万亿，地方政府债40万亿，再加上平台公司60万亿，合在一起120万亿左右，现在GDP是100%，或者多一点，美国现在联邦政府债务是GDP的1.3倍，130%，中国政府的信用，而且政府持有的资产使得我们在负债能力、还债能力方面有更强的可能性。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

我提一个观点，我们有没有可能把国债的占比再提高一些，比如我们未来整个政府债务能够达到GDP的150%，增加这50%GDP的债务通过国债形式来发，这种情况下会带来60万亿的空间，而这60万亿其实对未来整个一段时间提高中国的全要素生产率，解决关键的节点问题，支撑节点行业的崛起，它会带来大量资金的支持，同时带来示范效应，这一点对我们未来整个中国经济保持高质量发展意义非常大。

刚才讲到研发，甚至讲到对低收入群体有一种现金转移支付或者消费券转移支付方式，保障性住房的建设，甚至股市，股市起不来，我们看到很多估值比较低的企业，它的资产质量非常高，这种情况下有没有可能财政，甚至央行可以直接以一万亿、两万亿去购买这些质量不错的，但估值偏低的这样一些企业的股票，通过这种方式拉动股市起来，这一点对于我们目前阶段，改变政策的理念、思路还是很有价值的，因为毕竟我们到了一个，我理解还是新旧动能转换甚至新旧文明更替的关键时间节点，投资的重要性非常大，这种情况下我们政策思路需要摆脱过去的这种束缚，把一些已经证明了是有效的举措大胆的试点，大胆推出，这个角度来讲未来整个中国经济的发展，基本面的前景还是比较乐观的。

翻译：

Liu Qiao, Dean of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University: Which node industries or key areas should be paid attention to when allocating resources in the financial field?

On December 7, Liu Qiao, dean of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, delivered a keynote speech at the annual meeting of the China Institute of International Finance.

Liu Qiao believes that China’s economic growth mainly depends on factor input, capital and labor input, and the growth of total factor productivity. As China’s investment boom comes to an end and the labor dividend fades, total factor productivity growth becomes important. There is a very strong positive relationship between the growth of total factor productivity and the investment rate, basically, investment growth of 10%, total factor productivity growth of 1.18%. If China wants to maintain a relatively high growth rate of total factor productivity in the future, the investment rate must be maintained at a relatively high level. It is necessary to focus on a large amount of funds to invest in node industries, which will bring about the rise of upstream and downstream market players, and ultimately produce a large spillover effect on China’s economy.

In China, there are two types of node industries or key fields that are conducive to technological progress or the improvement of resource allocation efficiency. One is the emerging industry that supports the continuous improvement of total factor productivity in the future, and the other is the link and field that restricts the improvement of total factor productivity and resource allocation efficiency. In response, he identified four industries and sectors. The first is carbon neutral industry, the second is consumer industry, the third is value chain industry, and the fourth is the urban-rural dual structure involving unequal income distribution and common prosperity.

In addition, when a large amount of investment is needed to improve the growth rate of total factor productivity, fiscal policies and even monetary policies can be reconsidered. For example, increasing the proportion of national debt can not only support the rise of node industries, but also bring demonstration effects. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

I will mainly talk about a few things. First, I will make a judgment on China’s economy and how much room there is for economic growth in the future. In the process, I will talk a little about the focus of the financial sector in supporting the real economy and high-quality development. How should fiscal policy better respond to some urgent internal and external needs under the current situation?

First, the growth of total factor productivity has become increasingly important

If you are concerned about the Chinese economy recently, there are two views, one is more pessimistic, the other is more optimistic, that is, the fundamentals are gradually improving. As you can see, after 2015, China’s GDP fell below 7%, and the three-year average of the epidemic was 4.5%. Now people are talking about 5%. Why is it important to ensure 5%? If China maintains a growth rate of around 5% in the next decade, its per capita GDP can be roughly doubled by 2035. In our understanding of the concept of China-style modernization or basically realizing socialist modernization, the corresponding GDP figure is roughly double the total per capita of 2020. So 5% becomes very important.

As you can see, back to the growth theory, our growth mainly depends on factor input, capital and labor input, plus total factor productivity is the growth of TFP, China has passed the investment cycle, has entered the end, while the labor dividend is gradually disappearing, basically the third contributing factor to growth is total factor productivity. Its growth becomes important. But generally speaking, total factor productivity accounts for about 40% of a country’s growth. In the first three decades of reform and opening up, we maintained a growth rate of more than 4% of total factor productivity, and China’s GDP basically increased by 10%, without any suspense, which is basically consistent with the classical empirical facts corresponding to the modern growth theory.

However, in the second decade of this century, China completed industrialization, which in my own judgment has been completed, that is, the manufacturing industry has become the largest manufacturing country in the world. After the completion of industrialization, the total factor productivity has declined, and now various algorithms and figures differ greatly, and it has fallen below 1% in a pessimistic sense. We have calculated by ourselves that it may be at least within 2%, and now the average is 1.8%, 1.9%. If there is no epidemic for three years, it may be a little higher, and it may be lower after consideration. At present, the core judgment depends on whether China can find new growth momentum in the next decade, so that the total factor productivity growth can maintain a higher level, can return to 2.5% or even a little higher, so that we may maintain a long-term growth rate of about 5% in the future, so that the basic realization of socialist modernization in 2035 has a guarantee.

Generally, the United States has the best technical research, the best research and development strength, and the precipitation is relatively rich, but the total factor productivity growth of the United States since the beginning of this century is less than 1%, the main reason is that its service industry, the proportion of the tertiary industry is too high, in this case, there is no large economies of scale. There are not many industries that are conducive to promoting TFP, so it is basically a 0.7% or 0.5% TFP growth rate. Some industrialized countries, such as Japan and Germany, have basically faced such challenges after industrialization. Why the long-term growth rate of the United States in the past period of time is actually around 2%, because its total factor productivity accounts for 40% to 50% of the contribution, but its own level is lower than 1%, this is an empirical fact that we see.

Second, there is a strong positive relationship between the growth of total factor productivity and the investment rate

Is it possible for China to create a different development path? This is the very core of what we call Chinese modernization. Because in general, for example, the view of Robert Gordon, a macroeconomist at Northwestern University, who argues that all of the important inventions that drove productivity growth had already been invented during the second Industrial Revolution, 1870 to 1970, including the use of electricity, Including sewers, highways, railways and even some things such as the Internet, the future inventions he believes are marginal contributions, meaning that the world will face the challenge of productivity in the future, the United States, the European Union countries are the first to be affected by this challenge, he did not talk about China, but according to his logic, China may now enter such a stage. Is that our productivity growth may be seriously challenged.

There is a very strong positive relationship between the growth of total factor productivity and the investment rate. Basically, when investment increases by 10%, total factor productivity increases by 1.18%. If China wants to maintain a relatively high growth rate of total factor productivity in the future, our investment rate must be maintained at a relatively high level, which is based on empirical data and typical empirical facts can be obtained. Where do we vote? Because traditionally there was a big cycle of infrastructure construction, real estate, Chinese investment in the past, we return to the Chinese growth model, you see the production network, according to the input-output table, each point is a number of industries, the National Bureau of Statistics of secondary industries 153, each industry because of the upstream and downstream relationship formed a network structure. In the past, it was basically the state through the industrial chain policy, through the five-year plan to determine some core key node industries, a large number of resources to drive the emergence of upstream and downstream market players, and finally the network has become more and more dense, and in the highest density industry is the node industry we talk about. In the past, we have seen that real estate is a typical node industry, and we have counted that only 38 of the 153 secondary industries have no direct or indirect connection with real estate, in other words, more than 100 industries are related, and more than 50 industries are relatively direct. In this case, if the investment in the real estate industry declines, it will have a relatively large impact on the overall economy.

When we talk about high-speed rail, its own return on capital is not very high, but the high-speed rail industry drives a large number of upstream and downstream, and its industrial chain is particularly long. In this case it is a typical node industry. We focus a large amount of funds to invest in this nodal industry, which brings the rise of upstream and downstream market players, and ultimately brings great spillover effects to China’s economy. This is the difference between China’s growth model and that of the United States, because investment in nodal industry has a high return on society and a relatively large impact on the overall economy. In this case, state-owned enterprises take the lead in resource allocation. It plays a role that cannot be played by a pure market economy, which is also a feature of China’s development and a link in our model of comparative advantage.

Third, what is the node industry that can produce a strong spillover effect in the future?

But now the question is, do we still have a node industry in the next ten years? What is our node industry? In this way, how can we guide scarce resources to be funded? From a financial point of view, what industries can be allocated to these industries that can support China’s economy in the future and produce a strong spillover effect, and can have an endorsement effect on overall economic growth? This question stands out. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Basically, it goes back to what are the key areas that we see are important, and what are the weak links that we are holding back our productivity growth, which is the focus of our future investment areas and the focus of financial resource allocation.

This answer is not readily available which industries can be picked out, here you can do a thought. If we look at the list of the best listed companies and the largest listed companies by market capitalization in China, the past 20 years have changed a lot, but if we imagine what kind of enterprises may appear on the list of the top 10 companies by market capitalization in China in 2035, the answer to this question itself gives us a lot of possible clues. Big enterprises are still on the list after more than a decade. I don’t think there is much room to look forward to the adjustment of our industrial structure or the changes in China’s economy. But if it is very difficult for us to fill each of the 10 empty Spaces in 2035, I think it may mean that there are actually many possibilities in the future. New enterprises will step into the sequence of China’s world-class industry leaders, we talk more about new energy, AI, big data, artificial intelligence brought by some possibilities, that is, the possibility of AI+, including the people’s livelihood, with medical health, consumer goods related to such industries, may rise in 2035.

I will simply make a small prediction about these industries or key issues, which are the node industries or key areas that we should pay attention to when allocating resources in the financial field.

What kind of industry is conducive to technological progress or the improvement of resource allocation efficiency is an important source of the total factor productivity growth we talked about. In China, there are some emerging industries that support the continuous improvement of our total factor productivity in the future, and there are some links and areas that restrict the improvement of our total factor productivity and the improvement of our resource allocation efficiency. Together, these are the key areas of the future where we need to invest, where we need to spend money, where we need to allocate resources to solve problems. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Let me mention four areas.

(1) Carbon neutral industry

The first is carbon neutrality.

This is also a very important topic today, and there are some possibilities brought by digital transformation, which is still relatively clear logical background. We talked about a distinction between civilizations, the energy that may be used, the way people interact with each other, and the intensity are two very important characteristics that distinguish different levels of civilization. We say that industrial civilization is a great upgrade of human civilization, that is, the industrial revolution, the use of fossil energy, we talk about the rise of modern transportation facilities, including communication facilities, the interaction between people to get rid of the restrictions of physical location. Now we are facing the beginning of a new civilization, because our energy is changing, it may be difficult for fossil energy to support sustainable development in the future, we do not talk about carbon neutrality, do not talk about climate change, no matter how coal is used at the current pace, it will only take about 200 years, oil will take 40 to 50 years. Now we need to consider the world’s economic development, how to transform energy? CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

At the same time, the interaction between people, because of the breakthrough of AI technology, because of the breakthrough of big data, because of the application scenario, the technical breakthrough of brain-computer interface, the breakthrough of computing power, it may even break the constraint of time, people may be more than 24 hours a day, there may be digital identity or other forms of bearing, you can engage in some things in this area to expand your time. What are the consequences of this situation for the development of human civilization? I dare not predict this, because this involves ethics, the economic paradigm may have a huge breakthrough, but at least one thing will be different from the past, which will bring huge investment space, this point we talk about carbon neutrality from the perspective of China’s future to find new growth momentum, and we talk about digital transformation, including artificial intelligence this may be we can not ignore.

For example, carbon neutrality will cost nearly $300 trillion in 2050, which is the time set by the Paris Agreement, which can fully offset the decline in investment in real estate or other infrastructure fixed assets, but how can we find the path forward? I think I need to think about and explore this aspect in the future. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

(2) Consumer industries

The second is consumption.

No modern country’s household consumption rate only accounts for less than 40% of GDP, and China’s household consumption rate is 38% of GDP, Japan, the United States is more than 60%, and the United States is as high as 70%. Service consumption accounts for less than 50% of the total consumption, and the consumption rate of residents should rise to more than 60% by 2035, and service consumption should account for more than 60% of residents’ consumption. There is considerable room for related supply-side investment and the rise of industries, including what we have talked about, especially service consumption. Financial services are a kind of consumption. Medical and health care, culture and entertainment are the focus of our future service consumption, and our supply-side investment is seriously insufficient.

On the one hand, the proportion of disposable income in GDP is relatively low, which is 43% now. How to raise it in the future? On the one hand, the improvement of labor productivity, the first distribution, the second distribution and the third distribution will increase disposable income of residents. On the other hand, the financial industry may also be responsible. At present, among the 43% of disposable income in China, only 4% comes from property income. In China, property income accounts for 4% of GDP, which accounts for 16% in the United States. We invest in real estate, stock market, all kinds of savings products and financial products, which accounts for 4% of GDP. If it is raised to the level of the United States, to 16%, plus 12%, it means that the disposable income of Chinese residents can reach more than 55%. Relying on such a link alone, we will talk about the rise of consumption in the future, and the reshaping of China’s industrial structure will bring many possible opportunities.

(3) Value chain industry

The third is the value chain. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

The value chain involves the proportion of manufacturing industry to maintain, high-end manufacturing industry, equipment manufacturing industry to maintain a certain proportion, but there is a feature of global trade, basically, the import and export of intermediate goods accounted for a relatively high proportion of global trade volume, the global industrial chain or supply chain becomes very important, in this case, a country’s position in the global value chain becomes very important, you need to be in the upstream. Upstream means that you have a low dependence on foreign intermediates, that is, raw materials and core components. China’s current upstream degree of measurement we are 0.01, about the average of the world’s industrialized countries is 0.04, the United States is 0.29, the United States is obviously in the upstream of the global value chain, providing intermediates, core underlying technology, parts and components to the world, and we are in the middle or even downstream, how to do this kind of progress to the upstream in the future? It requires a lot of investment, like investment in research and development.

Last year, our R&D intensity has increased, reaching 3 trillion RMB yuan, accounting for 2.54% of GDP. However, our R&D institutions are unreasonable, because the proportion of basic research in our R&D is too low, and our basic research only accounts for 6.3%, which is the figure of last year. China’s investment in basic research is 200 billion RMB yuan, and the US investment in basic research last year was one trillion RMB yuan, five times that of China. In the past 60 years, the United States has been such an intense investment in basic science research, and we have begun to make efforts in recent years, but our precipitation, accumulation and investment intensity are seriously insufficient.

From the perspective of future policies, is it possible for us to increase the investment in basic research to one trillion yuan? If the financial situation is difficult, can we support basic research by issuing one trillion yuan of special government bonds every year? In this way, we can make great progress for a long time, and in 10 or 20 years, we can make major breakthroughs in basic science and technology.

(4) Unequal income distribution for common prosperity

The fourth concerns the unequal distribution of income for shared prosperity.

In the urban-rural dual structure, on the one hand, the labor productivity of employed agricultural workers is very low. Agriculture contributes 7.7% of GDP, but uses nearly 25% of the labor force, so the productivity is very low. In the future, a large number of basic agricultural workers need to migrate to the secondary and tertiary industries. By 2035, nearly 140 million people will move to other industries. At the same time, 18% of the population in cities now is equivalent to 255 million people with permanent residents but no household registration, which is 400 million people. If these 400 million people stay in cities in the future, they need to solve housing problems, public service problems, and children’s teaching problems. We regard this as a burden, but from another perspective, a large number of people gathering will produce a large number of new possibilities for the rise of industries. In fact, behind this, I think it may become the focus of future investment, such as the construction of rental housing. As for the construction of the public service system corresponding to this group in the future, it is not necessarily a burden, it may be such a source of future growth, and perhaps financial resources can be allocated in this respect.

Fourth, what else can be done in terms of finance?

Finally, I have an idea about the policy itself. We just mentioned that China is in an era of great changes, and in this era, we need a lot of investment to raise the growth rate of our total factor productivity. Under such circumstances, I think our fiscal policies and even monetary policies can be rethought. Our current debt-to-GDP ratio, according to the latest data or the broadest dimension, is 25 trillion yuan of national debt, 40 trillion yuan of local government debt, and 60 trillion yuan of platform companies, which adds up to about 120 trillion yuan. The current GDP is 100%, or a little more, the current federal government debt in the United States is 1.3 times and 130% of GDP. The credit of the Chinese government and the assets held by the government make it more likely that we will be able to pay our debts and repay our debts. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

For example, in the future, the total government debt of China will reach 150% of GDP, and the debt of 50% of GDP will be issued in the form of government bonds. In this case, there will be a space of 60 trillion yuan, and this 60 trillion yuan will actually increase China’s total factor productivity for a period of time. To solve the key node problems and support the rise of the node industry, it will bring a lot of capital support and bring demonstration effect, which is very significant for our future to maintain high-quality development of the entire Chinese economy.

Just now we talked about research and development, we even talked about a cash transfer payment or a transfer payment of consumer vouchers for low-income groups, the construction of affordable housing, and even the stock market, the stock market is not up, we see a lot of companies with relatively low valuations, their asset quality is very high, is it possible to finance, Even the central bank can directly buy the stocks of these high-quality, but undervalued enterprises with one trillion or two trillion yuan, and pull up the stock market in this way, which is still valuable for our current stage to change the concept and idea of policy, because after all, we have come to a place. I understand that it is still a critical time for the transformation of old and new growth drivers and even the replacement of old and new civilizations, and the importance of investment is very great. Under such circumstances, our policy thinking needs to get rid of the shackles of the past, and boldly pilot and launch some measures that have proved to be effective. From this perspective, the basic prospect of the future development of the entire Chinese economy is still optimistic.

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