【观点】聂庆平：对2024年资本市场的投资建议

近日，CWM50理事、中国证券金融公司原董事长聂庆平出席了中国财富管理50人论坛2023年会（第十届）并在“投资展望：2024年资产配置与投资策略”主题论坛上发表演讲。

聂庆平认为，2023年的全球经济面临挑战，中国经济表现较为强韧。从2024年资产配置和投资策略来看，海外投资以配短期的固定收益类资产为主，减少对股票的投资配置。海外市场，尤其是美国市场存在严重的利率错配和资产错配，潜在的美元汇兑损失风险和股市风险需要审慎防范；国内投资以配置中长期的绩优股票为主，关注资本市场的价值投资和长远投资机会。因为从经济增长、降杠杆周期和化解系统性金融风险看，A股市场处于周期的底部，宏观政策和估值水平都具备市场稳步向上的有利条件。

以下为聂庆平演讲全文。

一、2023年国内外经济情况

首先说一下国际经济情况，大体来看，2023年的全球经济依旧面临挑战。在贸易壁垒、地缘政治冲突以及“脱钩断链”，尤其是在西方的“小院高墙”的政策背景下，全球的经济处在一个碎片化和相互去全球化的趋势下，面临着挑战。

对2023年美国经济的预期，大多数经济学家预测美国经济会在2023年出现严重的衰退，但是从三季度的情况来看，美国的年化已经达到了4.6%的增长，超出市场预期，“软着陆”可能性加大。日本迎来“失去的30年”的拐点，逐渐摆脱长期通缩的阴影；德国陷入能源危机，欧元区经济也是持续低迷。

反观2023年中国的经济，表现较为强韧。2023年是中国经济复苏之年，2023年政府工作报告将GDP增速目标设置为5%左右，从2023年前10个月的统计数据看，一是宏观经济指标表现较好，经济总量增长较快；二是市场需求较快恢复，前三个季度最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率达到83.2%；三是质量效益持续改善，新动能加快成长壮大；四是市场信心不断改善，制造业由降转升。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

总体来看，2023年中国的GDP增速能够达到5%以上，甚至有可能达到5.5%，因此，年初的目标是可以实现的。

二、2024资产配置与投资策略

从2008年以来，美国经济以及西方国家为了应对经济的挑战，进入了加杠杆的周期。

全球主要国家央行资产负债表规模持续扩张以及财政扩张，对全球经济和金融市场产生了难以预估的影响。一是2008年以来，美国进行了四轮QE，美联储的资产负债表已经由8000多亿美元扩大到8万多亿美元，这是通过发行货币增加的。二是美国政府配合货币政策进行扩张性财政政策，在经济下行时期加大财政刺激力度，2008年至今陆续实施了约12万亿美元的财政刺激。三是2008年以来，欧洲、日本等主要经济体央行跟随美国实行了扩张性货币政策，三大央行资产负债表膨胀近7倍，加剧了全球的货币泛滥。四是货币超发压低了长期利率，美股易涨难跌，存在高估值风险。

基于对2024年全球市场的看法，我对未来一年的A股投资有以下建议：

（一）海外投资以配短期的固定收益类资产为主，减少对股票的投资配置。海外市场，尤其是美国市场存在严重的利率错配和资产错配，潜在的美元汇兑损失风险和股市风险需要审慎防范。

为什么要防范美国的股市问题？美国的股市的确是天天涨，但是如果看它的结构，美国股市上涨的股票都是蓝筹股票。根据统计，截至2023年上半年，标普500指数中Meta、亚马逊、苹果、微软、谷歌、特斯拉、英伟达等7只股票涨幅合计达到58%，构成了美国股市主要上涨的因素。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

美国的金融体系当中，因为货币超发，现在美联储不敢加息，因为加息以后对美国的金融资产的冲击比较大，其中一个很重要的问题是，美国的金融体系中也存在着资产错配，金融机构为了应付QE，购买美国的国债，美国的银行是主要的投资方，银行只是吸收存款和发放贷款的，不应该做主动投资，但是现在美国的银行把存款的头寸用到了债券上。

硅谷银行倒闭的原因在于资产错配、存款挤提和美联储加息。只要美联储一加息，加到5.25%、5.5%的时候，银行的资产负债表就出现了问题。但是不加息就带来了国际资本对美元的风险和流动风险，这些风险都是随时有可能冲击2024年美国以及西方主要经济体的风险内涵因素。所以，美联储在不加息的情况下，甚至要进行缩表，美元有可能会流出美国市场，同时，美国的资产负债表当中出现相应的资产错配的风险有可能会引爆，美国金融市场面临两难。

再加上美国的股市是高估的，6只股票在10年间上涨了将近10倍，最高的涨了13倍，而且美国股市蓝筹股的平均市盈率已经超过25倍，所以，在这种情况下，对2024年的投资策略和资产配置，对海外市场的投资应该是追利率，这是一个比较稳健的短期的投资策略。

（二）国内投资以配置中长期的绩优股票为主，关注资本市场的价值投资和长远投资机会。因为从经济增长、降杠杆周期和化解系统性金融风险看，A股市场处于周期的底部，宏观政策和估值水平都具备市场稳步向上的有利条件。

对A股来说，2024年可以更加乐观。

从A股的基本面来分析，从我国的宏观条件来讲，从2015年开始，在党中央、国务院的领导下，中国经济走的是降杠杆的周期。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

以2015年股市的异常波动作为一个转折点，2016年、2017年基本是股票质押的降杠杆，逐步消除了股票质押的系统性风险；2019年，化解了P2P、互联网金融加杠杆的风险；2020年，化解了系统金融大鳄的风险，比如安邦系、海航系、明天系等；2021年、2022年，化解房地产大鳄的系统性风险，也是降杠杆。

中国在头排的房地产企业的杠杆率都是上千倍的，最多有一两千亿元的净资产，但是负债都在万亿元以上。所以中国和美国恰好是一个反向的周期，我们是在降杠杆的周期。在降杠杆的周期，宏观经济当然都面临着挑战，对于大家所担心的风险，包括城投债的风险，中央也有一系列的安排，再叠加疫情的影响，总体来讲，我个人的判断是，中国经济在降低系统性金融风险环节已经到了周期的底部，下一步应该是逐步向好。

我认为，中国股市不是没有投资价值，而是A股市场估值结构与交易结构错配，估值结构与投资结构也错配。沪深300只股票占整个股市市值的比重是70%，但是这部分的估值现在是5~6倍，平均是7~8倍，极少数股票有10倍。但是它的股本回报率都基本在5%，没有长期资金、大资金去投资，所以和美国股市走的是相反的情况。美国股市是大股票上涨，2023年上半年，英伟达接近200倍的市盈率，特斯拉和比亚迪相比，特斯拉是比亚迪股价的4倍，但是特斯拉的盈利、销售额基本上和比亚迪持平。这就说明中国有很大的估值和交易额的错配。

沪深300只股票的市值占全市场的比重达到70%，但是交易占比只有27%，而且是逐年下降的。这是从宏观配置、资产大类配置的判断，中国资本市场应该引领价值投资，给中国一个合理的估值水平。既然看好中国的增长情况，理论上估值应该翻一倍，和美国在同一水平。美国股票的市盈率已经到25倍以上，那么中国的蓝筹股的市盈率只要到17~18倍，中国的股市就是一个非常值得投资的方向。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

翻译：

Nie Qingping: Investment recommendations for the capital market in 2024

Recently, Nie Qingping, director of CWM50 and former chairman of China Securities Finance Corporation, attended the China Wealth Management 50 Forum 2023 Annual Meeting (10th) and delivered a speech at the theme forum of “Investment Outlook: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy in 2024”.

Nie Qingping believes that the global economy in 2023 will face challenges, and China’s economic performance is relatively strong. From the perspective of asset allocation and investment strategy in 2024, overseas investment is mainly allocated to short-term fixed income assets, and the investment allocation to stocks is reduced. There are serious interest rate mismatches and asset mismatches in overseas markets, especially in the US market, and the potential risks of US dollar exchange losses and stock market risks need to be carefully guarded against. Domestic investment is mainly based on the allocation of medium and long-term blue chip stocks, focusing on value investment and long-term investment opportunities in the capital market. Because from the perspective of economic growth, deleveraging cycle and resolving systemic financial risks, the A-share market is at the bottom of the cycle, and macro policies and valuation levels have favorable conditions for the market to steadily rise.

The following is the full text of Nie Qingping’s speech.

Economic situation at home and abroad in 2023

First of all, the international economic situation, generally speaking, the global economy in 2023 will still face challenges. In the context of trade barriers, geopolitical conflicts, and the “decoupling of chains”, especially in the West, the global economy is facing challenges under the trend of fragmentation and mutual de-globalization.

For the US economy in 2023, most economists predict that the US economy will have a severe recession in 2023, but from the situation in the third quarter, the United States has reached an annualized growth of 4.6%, exceeding market expectations, and the possibility of a “soft landing” has increased. Japan has reached the inflection point of the “lost 30 years” and gradually emerged from the shadow of long-term deflation. Germany is in the grip of an energy crisis, and the euro zone’s economy continues to falter.

In contrast, China’s economy in 2023 is more resilient. 2023 will be the year of China’s economic recovery. The 2023 Government Work Report sets the GDP growth target at about 5%. From the statistical data of the first 10 months of 2023, we can see that first, macroeconomic indicators are performing well and economic aggregate is growing rapidly; Second, market demand recovered rapidly. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 83.2%. Third, quality and efficiency continued to improve, and new growth drivers accelerated. Fourth, market confidence has continued to improve, and the manufacturing industry has turned from a decline to an increase. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Overall, China’s GDP growth rate in 2023 can reach more than 5%, and may even reach 5.5%, so the target at the beginning of the year is achievable.

2024 Asset allocation and Investment Strategy

Since 2008, the US economy and Western countries have entered a cycle of increasing leverage in order to cope with economic challenges.

The continued expansion of the balance sheets and fiscal expansion of the world’s major central banks has had an unpredictable impact on the global economy and financial markets. First, since 2008, the United States has carried out four rounds of QE, and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has expanded from more than $800 billion to more than $8 trillion, which is increased by issuing money. Second, the US government carried out expansionary fiscal policies with monetary policies, increasing fiscal stimulus during the economic downturn, and has successively implemented fiscal stimulus of about 12 trillion US dollars since 2008. Third, since 2008, the central banks of Europe, Japan and other major economies have followed the United States in implementing expansionary monetary policies, and the balance sheets of the three major central banks have expanded by nearly seven times, exacerbating the global monetary flooding. Fourth, the oversupply of money has depressed long-term interest rates, and the US stock market is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and there is a high valuation risk.

Based on my view of the global market in 2024, I have the following recommendations for A-share investment in the coming year:

(1) Overseas investment is mainly allocated to short-term fixed income assets, reducing the investment allocation to stocks. There are serious interest rate mismatches and asset mismatches in overseas markets, especially in the US market, and the potential risks of US dollar exchange losses and stock market risks need to be carefully guarded against.

Why guard against America’s stock market problems? The US stock market is indeed rising every day, but if you look at its structure, the stocks that rise in the US stock market are blue chip stocks. According to statistics, as of the first half of 2023, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Nvidia and other seven stocks in the S&P 500 index rose by a total of 58%, constituting the main rising factors in the US stock market. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

In the financial system of the United States, the Federal Reserve is afraid to raise interest rates because of the impact on the financial assets of the United States. One of the most important problems is that there is also asset mismatch in the financial system of the United States. In order to cope with QE, financial institutions buy US Treasury bonds, and US banks are the main investors. Banks take deposits and make loans, and are not supposed to make active investments, but now American banks are using their deposit positions in bonds.

Silicon Valley banks failed because of asset mismatches, deposit runs and Fed rate hikes. As soon as the Fed raises rates to 5.25%, 5.5%, the banks’ balance sheets are in trouble. However, the failure to raise interest rates brings about the risk and flow risk of international capital to the dollar, which are the risk connotation factors that may hit the United States and major Western economies at any time in 2024. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates, or even shrinks its balance sheet, the US dollar may flow out of the US market, at the same time, the risk of corresponding asset mismatch in the US balance sheet may explode, and the US financial market is facing a dilemma.

In addition, the US stock market is overvalued, six stocks have risen nearly 10 times in 10 years, and the highest has risen 13 times, and the average price-earnings ratio of blue chip stocks in the US stock market has exceeded 25 times, so in this case, the investment strategy and asset allocation in 2024, the investment in overseas markets should follow the interest rate. This is a relatively stable short-term investment strategy. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

(2) Domestic investment is mainly based on the allocation of medium – and long-term blue chip stocks, focusing on value investment and long-term investment opportunities in the capital market. Because from the perspective of economic growth, deleveraging cycle and resolving systemic financial risks, the A-share market is at the bottom of the cycle, and macro policies and valuation levels have favorable conditions for the market to steadily rise.

For A shares, 2024 can be more optimistic.

From the fundamental analysis of A shares, from China’s macro conditions, starting from 2015, under the leadership of the Party Central Committee and The State Council, China’s economy is going through a cycle of leverage reduction.

Taking the abnormal volatility of the stock market in 2015 as a turning point, 2016 and 2017 basically reduced the leverage of stock pledge, and gradually eliminated the systemic risk of stock pledge. In 2019, we resolved the risk of increasing leverage in P2P and Internet finance. In 2020, the risks of systemic financial giants, such as Anbang Department, HNA Department, and Tomorrow Department, have been resolved; In 2021 and 2022, the systemic risk of real estate crocodiles will be resolved, and leverage will also be reduced.

In China, the leverage ratio of the first row of real estate enterprises is thousands of times, with a maximum of one hundred to two hundred billion yuan of net assets, but the debt is more than one trillion yuan. So China and the United States happen to be in a reverse cycle, and we are in a deleveraging cycle. In the deleveraging cycle, the macro economy is of course facing challenges. For the risks that you are worried about, including the risk of urban investment bonds, the central government has also made a series of arrangements, combined with the impact of the epidemic. Generally speaking, my personal judgment is that China’s economy has reached the bottom of the cycle in reducing systemic financial risks, and the next step should be to gradually improve.

In my opinion, it is not that the Chinese stock market has no investment value, but that the valuation structure of the A-share market is mismatched with the trading structure, and the valuation structure is mismatched with the investment structure. The 300 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen account for 70% of the total market capitalization, but the valuation of this part is now 5 to 6 times, the average is 7 to 8 times, and very few stocks have 10 times. But its return on equity is basically 5%, there is no long-term capital, big capital to invest, so it is the opposite of the US stock market. The US stock market is a big stock rise, in the first half of 2023, Nvidia is close to 200 times the price-earnings ratio, compared with Tesla and BYD, Tesla is 4 times BYD’s share price, but Tesla’s earnings and sales are basically flat with BYD. This shows that there is a big mismatch between valuation and trading volume in China. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

The market capitalization of the 300 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen accounts for 70% of the total market, but the trading share is only 27%, and it is declining year by year. Judging from macro allocation and asset category allocation, China’s capital market should lead value investment and give China a reasonable valuation level. Given the bullish outlook on China’s growth, the valuation should theoretically double to the same level as the United States. The P/E ratio of US stocks has reached more than 25 times, then the P/E ratio of China’s blue chip stocks only needs to reach 17-18 times, and China’s stock market is a very worthwhile investment direction.

由CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）转载而成，来源于中国财富管理50人论坛；作者：聂庆平；编辑/翻译：CXO UNIONCXO联盟小U。

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