【观点】纪敏：对中国经济2024年的展望

近日，中国财富管理50人论坛学术委员纪敏出席了中国财富管理50人论坛2023年会（第十届）并在主题论坛“宏观论道：2024全球经济走势与应对”上发表演讲。

纪敏表示，2023年全球经济复苏，展现出一定的韧性，尤其是在美国和欧元区等主要经济体在面对紧缩政策时仍然保持了一定的韧性，新兴经济体也保持了较快的增长速度。增长保持一定韧性的同时通胀显著回落，是2023年全球经济的总体特征。从全球经济角度看中国，有两点值得关注：一是在主要经济体中，我国仍然拥有相对较高的增长和低通胀的组合，且政策空间相对较大；二是消费和新动能将是未来增长的主力。

一、中国经济2024年展望

我对中国经济2024年的前景持乐观态度。首先，2023年全球经济复苏，展现出一定的韧性，尤其是在美国和欧元区等主要经济体在面对紧缩政策时仍然保持了一定的韧性。新兴经济体也保持了较快的增长速度，整体增长格局与之前相比没有太大变化。同时，紧缩政策的一大成效是通胀的回落。疫情后，在政策刺激下通胀快速上升，而在政策紧缩下通胀回落。增长保持一定韧性的同时通胀显著回落，是2023年全球经济的总体特征。

综合增长和通胀这两大指标来看，我国在主要经济体中仍处于相对较好的状况。一是我国的增长速度在主要经济体中较高。2023年中国经济预计达到5%以上（实为5.2%，编者注）。从过去三年（2021—2023Q3）看，美国年均增速是1.9%，高于疫情前增速。我国为4.6%，低于疫情前，后续仍有上行空间。二是我国通胀水平低。2023年全年通胀预计约0.5%，远低于美国欧元区。印度经济增速快，2023年三季度同比增长7.6%，高于我国，但通胀也高，11月CPI同比达5.6%。综合增长和通胀看，我国的经济状况相对较好。

二、中国政策空间相对较大

从政策空间看，我觉得也是有的。财政政策方面，从赤字率、政府杠杆率尤其是中央政府的杠杆率的比较来看，我国在主要经济体中处于偏低水平。根据BIS数据，2023年二季度我国政府杠杆率为79.4%，低于美国的110.4%、日本的227.2%、欧元区的90.4%和印度的82.8%；赤字率也低于印度、美国。中央经济工作会议也提出财政政策要适度加力。另一方面，从经济状况来讲，我国通胀低。财政政策加力有利于提振需求，提高产能利用率，促进经济循环的同时，也有利于把通胀提起来。中央经济工作会议提出的“价格水平预期目标”，与经济增长同样重要，对于我们增加收入、现金流、利润，改善微观主体感受都具有很积极的作用。财政政策的一个发力途径就是价格改革，比如，加快理顺水电气等公用事业价格，同时给低收入者发放价改补贴，既可把价格适当提起来改善预期，又可减少煤电价格倒挂补贴，增加能源供给，还可提升公用事业专项债等投资的自偿率，降低地方政府性债务风险，弥补土地出让金不足，一举数得，可加快推进。

从货币政策看，2024年也面临一些有利条件。从内部条件看，当前我国通胀压力小，货币政策扩大需求促进价格回升、进而引导实际利率下降有空间；从外部条件看，美国11月CPI同比回落至3.1%，PCE同比回落至2.6%。随着通胀回落，美元实际利率上升不利于经济增长，需下调名义利率对冲，但如果名义利率过早下调，又恐影响通胀目标实现，货币政策平衡难度上升。对我国而言，无论是美元名义利率下调，收窄中美利差，还是美元实际利率上升，削弱其经济基本面，均有利于我增大货币政策空间。

三、中国有更强的消费后劲

再从居民储蓄和消费看，美国当前消费强，储蓄消耗较多，我国当前消费仍在恢复，居民储蓄增加较多，意味着更强的消费后劲。美国耐用品消费已高于疫情前趋势水平，居民超额储蓄由高点时的2万多亿美元降至8000亿美元，储蓄占可支配收入比重由高点时超过30%降至5%，信用卡拖欠率三季度升至3%，消费后劲面临考验。我国2023年前三季度居民存款新增14.4万亿元，同比多增9.2%，居民消费正在恢复但尚未达到趋势水平，后劲可期。

四、中国新动能增长较快

最后从增长动能看，我国新动能增长较快。2023年1-11月份，高技术产业投资同比增长10.5%，增速比全部固定资产投资高7.6个百分点。2023年前10个月，高技术制造业实际使用外资增长9.5%。11月新能源汽车、太阳能电池、汽车用锂离子动力电池等“新三样”相关产品产量同比分别增长35.6%、44.5%、38.7%。相对而言，美国近年来在基建、再工业化等方面的投资虽有所增长，但总体而言其产业升级已较为成熟，增长动能主要还是来自国内消费。

我简要对比了中美2024年的增长态势和政策空间，从全球经济角度看中国，有两点值得关注：一是在主要经济体中，我国仍然拥有相对较高的增长和低通胀的组合，且政策空间相对较大；二是消费和新动能将是未来增长的主力。只要政策得当且扎实落地，改革开放进一步深化，中国经济增长潜力将持续释放。

翻译：

Ji Min: Outlook for China’s economy in 2024

Recently, Ji Min, academic member of the China Wealth Management 50 Forum, attended the China Wealth Management 50 Forum 2023 Annual Meeting (10th session) and delivered a speech at the theme forum “Macro Discussion: 2024 Global Economic Trend and Response”.

Ji Min said that the global economic recovery in 2023 has shown a certain degree of resilience, especially in the face of austerity policies in major economies such as the United States and the eurozone, which still maintained a certain degree of resilience, and emerging economies have also maintained a relatively fast growth rate. Some resilience in growth coupled with a significant fall in inflation will be a general feature of the global economy in 2023. From the perspective of the global economy, there are two points worth noting about China: First, among major economies, China still has a relatively high combination of growth and low inflation, and relatively large policy space; Second, consumption and new drivers will be the main drivers of future growth.

First, Outlook for the Chinese economy in 2024

I am optimistic about the prospects of the Chinese economy in 2024. First, the global economic recovery in 2023 has shown some resilience, especially as major economies such as the United States and the eurozone have remained resilient in the face of tightening policies. Emerging economies have also maintained a relatively fast growth rate, and the overall growth pattern has not changed much compared with before. At the same time, one of the benefits of tightening has been a fall in inflation. After the epidemic, inflation rose rapidly under policy stimulus, and fell back under policy tightening. Some resilience in growth coupled with a significant fall in inflation will be a general feature of the global economy in 2023.

Judging from the two major indicators of growth and inflation, China is still in a relatively good situation among major economies. First, China’s growth rate is relatively high among major economies. China’s economy is expected to reach more than 5% in 2023 (actually 5.2%, editor’s note). From the past three years (2021-2023Q3), the average annual growth rate of the United States is 1.9%, higher than the pre-epidemic growth rate. China’s rate is 4.6%, lower than before the epidemic, and there is still room for upside in the future. Second, China’s inflation level is low. Full-year inflation in 2023 is expected to be around 0.5%, much lower than in the United States and the euro area. India’s economy is growing fast, with a year-on-year growth of 7.6% in the third quarter of 2023, higher than China’s, but inflation is also high, with CPI reaching 5.6% in November. Integrated growth and inflation, China’s economic condition is relatively good.

Second, China has relatively large policy space

From the perspective of policy space, I think there is. In terms of fiscal policy, China is at a relatively low level among major economies from the comparison of the deficit-to-GDP ratio and the government leverage ratio, especially the central government leverage ratio. According to BIS data, in the second quarter of 2023, China’s government leverage ratio was 79.4%, lower than the US’s 110.4%, Japan’s 227.2%, the eurozone’s 90.4% and India’s 82.8%. The deficit ratio is also lower than that of India and the United States. The Central Economic Work Conference also proposed that fiscal policy should be appropriately strengthened. On the other hand, speaking from the economic situation, China’s inflation is low. The strengthening of fiscal policy is conducive to boosting demand, improving capacity utilization, promoting economic circulation, and also conducive to raising inflation. The “price level expected target” proposed by the Central Economic Work Conference is as important as economic growth, and it has a very positive effect on increasing our income, cash flow and profits, and improving the feelings of micro-entities. One way to make fiscal policy more effective is price reform, for example, speed up the rationalization of the prices of utilities such as water and electricity, and at the same time issue price reform subsidies to low-income people, which can not only raise prices appropriately to improve expectations, but also reduce the price of coal and electricity subsidies, increase energy supply, but also increase the self-repayment rate of investments such as special bonds for public utilities, and reduce the risk of local government debt. Make up for the lack of land transfer fees, can accelerate progress.

From the perspective of monetary policy, 2024 also faces some favorable conditions. From the internal conditions, China’s current inflation pressure is small, monetary policy to expand demand to promote price recovery, and then guide the real interest rate to fall there is room; From the external conditions, the United States CPI in November fell to 3.1%, PCE fell to 2.6%. With the fall in inflation, the rise in the real interest rate of the US dollar is not conducive to economic growth, and the nominal interest rate should be lowered to hedge, but if the nominal interest rate is lowered too early, it may affect the realization of the inflation target, and the balance of monetary policy will be more difficult. For our country, whether the nominal interest rate of the US dollar is lowered, the interest rate spread between China and the US is narrowed, or the real interest rate of the US dollar is rising, weakening its economic fundamentals, which will help me increase the monetary policy space.

Third, China has stronger consumption momentum

From the perspective of household savings and consumption, the current consumption of the United States is strong, saving consumption is more, China’s current consumption is still recovering, and the increase of household savings means stronger consumption momentum. The consumption of durable goods in the United States has been higher than the pre-epidemic trend level, the excess savings of households dropped from more than 2 trillion US dollars at the peak to 800 billion US dollars, the proportion of savings in disposable income dropped from more than 30% at the peak to 5%, and the credit card delinquency rate rose to 3% in the third quarter. In the first three quarters of 2023, China’s household deposits increased by 14.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.2%, and household consumption is recovering but has not yet reached the trend level, and the momentum can be seen.

Fourth, China’s new growth drivers are growing rapidly

Finally, from the perspective of growth drivers, China’s new growth drivers are growing rapidly. From January to November 2023, investment in high-tech industries grew by 10.5% year-on-year, 7.6 percentage points higher than total fixed asset investment. In the first 10 months of 2023, the actual use of foreign capital in high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.5 percent. In November, the output of “new three kinds” related products such as new energy vehicles, solar cells and automotive lithium-ion power batteries increased by 35.6%, 44.5% and 38.7%, respectively. Relatively speaking, although the United States has increased its investment in infrastructure and re-industrialization in recent years, its industrial upgrading has been relatively mature, and the growth momentum is mainly from domestic consumption.

I briefly compared the growth trends and policy space of China and the United States in 2024. From the perspective of the global economy, there are two points worth noting about China: First, among the major economies, China still has a relatively high combination of growth and low inflation, and relatively large policy space; Second, consumption and new drivers will be the main drivers of future growth. As long as appropriate policies are firmly implemented and reform and opening up are further deepened, China’s economic growth potential will continue to be released.

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