【观点】刘元春：2024年中国经济将进一步企稳，风险将持续释放

近日，上海财经大学校长刘元春出席了全球财富管理论坛•2023上海苏河湾大会并在“全球经济复苏的挑战与应对”主题论坛上发表演讲，对我国明年经济的研判做出了梳理。

刘元春表示，国际货币基金组织（IMF）下调了我国明年的经济增速指标，认为我国的房地产以及对中国投资的信心是明年全球面临的一大风险，这一判断是不准确的，其对我国的风险释放和风险控制方式存在一定的误解。他以房地产为例进行分析并表示，要对中国市场有更深的把握，才能对相应的风险做出更好的判断，预计中国2024年总体运行状况是总量进一步企稳，风险持续释放。他进一步指出了几点稳定因素：近期一揽子化债方案和债务发行产生的积极财政政策的回归；房地产和私人投资的边际改善已经全面出现；第二产业的投资增速对于中小微企业的进一步救助以及对于第三产业的渗透空间明显。因此，把握好增长的能级和风险释放关键点，对于我国明年的政策设计就可能更为清晰。

最近临近年末，各个国际机构都发布了对明年全球经济的研判，尤其是10月份的各类报告引发了大家的一些热议。明年的形势到底会怎样？全球金融市场的一些变化到底会如何发展？实际上，从这些天大家的议论来看，明年的经济形势可能还是维持“新”常态。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

国际机构每个季度都在调整指标，国际货币基金组织（IMF）在今年4月份到6月份调整了一次，这次10月份的报告更大的调整是将明年的经济增长速度下调，同时对于明年的增长结构的分化给出了最为明确的说明。其中，IMF将中国的房地产以及中国的投资信心视为明年全球将面临的一个大风险，我们认为这种判断是不准确的。这种判断可能是因为IMF对于我国风险释放、风险控制的方式存在一些误解。以房地产为例，从市场经济来讲，每隔二三十年出现一次房地产动荡是常态，中国改革开放45年也出现了一系列的动荡。很多西方研究者对中国房地产和欧美房地产的调整过程所作的判断存在一个差错，即忽略了中国目前的房地产是以居民居住为核心，而不是商业地产，这是中国房地产与欧美房地产的最大差异。

在欧美金融市场中，商业地产的这种传递效应对加杠杆以及金融结构化很重要。中国房地产在过去二十年的发展中，商业地产的比重已经达到了房地产比重的20%以上，占据了很庞大的规模。但是，这一轮调整并不是集中在商业地产上，因为从这轮互联网经济尤其是平台经济的冲击中可以发现，我国大量的物业和商用住房的调整在十年前就已经全面开启了。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

上海、北京商业用房空置率的全面提升也并不是今天才出现的，十年前平台经济、共享经济出现之后，大量的商铺泡沫被提前挤破，导致我国房地产调整的方式与三十年前日本房地产的调整主体和调整方式具有根本性的差异，即我们是分步进行房地产泡沫挤压的。其中很重要的原因就是我国的商业业态发生了革命性的变化，直接带来相应体系的变化，这是研究中国房地产需要高度关注的第一点。

第二点，我国没有个人破产风险体系。从对中国的个人破产制度以及财产持有方式的调查来看，我们会发现中国居民对于财富的敏感性非常强，但是实际上却没有出现欧美以往出现过的“破产潮”和申请个人资产破产的情况。

第三点，我国以房地产抵押贷款进行的资产证券化基本没有，房地产涉及的金融虽然规模大，但链条却很短，总体金融风险传染性不大。

第四点，中国社会主义市场经济体系对于房地产的管控十分直接，与欧美管控方式具有明显的差异。

从目前国家对于房地产的调控过程不难看出，国家对于原来的“限高”以及目前“限低”的状况依然有着清晰认识，这些认识对我国房地产发展路径起到了相对科学的指导作用，而不是像欧美市场一样“大上大下”。对此要作出正确的判断，即中国房地产的体系与欧美房地产体系在结构、定价、风险释放当中呈现的不一样，这也决定了我们并不像IMF判断的那样，似乎未来的风险是不可承受的。因此，一定要对中国市场有更深的把握才可以判断好相应的风险，更为重要的是要对中国明年稳定的力量有清晰的认知。

由于近期一揽子化债方案和债务发行会产生积极财政政策的回归，将对中国经济起到明显的稳定作用，我们认为中国2024年经济总体运行状况是总量进一步企稳，风险持续释放。我国的财政支出在二季度、三季度是负增长，今年的财政政策没有得到很好的回归，这是我们认为最近复苏情况较预期相对缓慢的一个很重要的原因。相信在我国四季度财政政策的回归以及明年方案的重新谋划下，只要积极财政政策真正起到提质增效的作用，明年中国经济的进一步企稳应该没有问题。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

第二个原因，现在已经全面出现了房地产和私人投资的边际改善，这种边际改善在明年应该可以得到进一步的巩固。从数据来看，民间投资在1—3季度依然是负增长，但是9月份的民间投资在剔除房地产之后是正增长的，并且正增长反弹速度比较快，这其实是因为目前我国的制造业状况还是不错的。但是，服务业的复苏，特别是以中小企业为主体的第三产业的复苏与投资，是我们明年的一个核心。把握住这个核心，就可以把握住明年的稳定性。

今年前三季度第三产业的投资增长速度不到2%，但是制造业第二产业的投资增长速度是8%，可见复苏力量的进一步扩散，特别是对于中小微企业的进一步救助以及对于服务业的渗透，在明年还是有比较明显的空间的。

同时，现在大家津津乐道的“新三样”，这些新动能以及持续15年以来对于高新技术的高速投资，会产生对增长的拉动，实际上在未来就是持续释放的过程。

最后，一定要看到明年中国经济增长的能级在什么地方，以及我们的风险释放关键点在什么地方，这样对于明年的政策设计就可能会更为清晰，把握就会更好。这里也涉及我们如何对明年的经济增长速度进行研判的问题。IMF认为我国明年的经济增速会下降到4.2%，世界银行认为会下降到4.4%，我认为他们的预测应该都不准确，原因在于很多的研究团队对中国风险控制的模式以及中国增长新潜能所持续释放的时点的判断不是很准确。

翻译：

Liu Yuanchun: In 2024, China’s economy will further stabilize and risks will continue to be released

Recently, Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, attended the Global Wealth Management Forum 2023 Shanghai Suhewan Conference and delivered a speech at the theme forum of “Challenges and Responses to Global Economic Recovery”, and sorted out the research and judgment of China’s economy next year. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Liu Yuanchun said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered China’s economic growth target for next year, that China’s real estate and confidence in Chinese investment is a major risk to the world next year, this judgment is inaccurate, and there is a certain misunderstanding of China’s risk release and risk control methods. He took real estate as an example to analyze and said that to have a deeper grasp of the Chinese market, in order to make a better judgment of the corresponding risks, it is expected that the overall operation of China in 2024 is to further stabilize the total amount and continue to release risks. He further pointed to several stabilizing factors: the return of proactive fiscal policy resulting from the recent debt package and debt issuance; Marginal improvements in real estate and private investment have occurred across the board; The growth rate of investment in the secondary industry has obvious space for further assistance to small, medium and micro enterprises and penetration of the tertiary industry. Therefore, grasp the growth of the energy level and the key points of risk release, for our country’s policy design next year may be more clear.

Recently, as the end of the year draws near, various international institutions have released their research judgments on the global economy next year, especially the various reports in October have triggered some hot discussions. What will happen next year? How will some of the changes in global financial markets play out? In fact, judging from what everyone is saying these days, the economic situation next year may remain the “new” normal.

International institutions adjust their indicators every quarter, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April to June this year adjusted once, the October report is a bigger adjustment is to lower the economic growth rate next year, while the growth structure of the next year gave the most clear explanation. Among them, the IMF sees China’s real estate and China’s investment confidence as a big risk to the world next year, which we believe is inaccurate. This judgment may be because the IMF has some misunderstandings about the way of risk release and risk control in China. Taking real estate as an example, from the perspective of market economy, it is normal to have real estate turbulence every 20 or 30 years, and China has also seen a series of turbulence in the 45 years of reform and opening up. There is a mistake in the judgment made by many western researchers on the adjustment process of China’s real estate and European and American real estate, that is, they ignore that China’s current real estate is based on residential residence rather than commercial real estate, which is the biggest difference between China’s real estate and European and American real estate.

In the European and American financial markets, this pass-through effect of commercial real estate is important for leverage and financial structuring. In the development of China’s real estate in the past two decades, the proportion of commercial real estate has reached more than 20% of the proportion of real estate, occupying a very large scale. However, this round of adjustment is not concentrated on commercial real estate, because from this round of the impact of the Internet economy, especially the platform economy, it can be found that a large number of property and commercial housing adjustments in China have been fully opened ten years ago.

Ten years ago, after the emergence of platform economy and sharing economy, a large number of shop bubbles were squeezed in advance, resulting in a fundamental difference between China’s real estate adjustment and Japan’s real estate adjustment subjects and adjustment methods 30 years ago, that is, we carried out real estate bubble extrusion step by step. One of the most important reasons is that China’s commercial format has undergone revolutionary changes, which directly brings about changes in the corresponding system, which is the first point that the study of China’s real estate needs to be highly concerned about.

Second, there is no personal bankruptcy risk system in China. From the investigation of China’s personal bankruptcy system and the way of holding property, we can find that Chinese residents are very sensitive to wealth, but in fact, there is no “bankruptcy wave” and the situation of applying for personal asset bankruptcy that has appeared in Europe and America in the past.

Third, there is basically no asset securitization with real estate mortgage loans in China. Although the finance involved in real estate is large in scale, the chain is very short, and the overall financial risk is not contagious. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Fourthly, China’s socialist market economy system has a very direct control over real estate, which is significantly different from that of Europe and the United States.

From the current national regulation and control process for real estate, it is not difficult to see that the state still has a clear understanding of the original “limit high” and the current “limit low” situation, which has played a relatively scientific guiding role in the development path of China’s real estate, rather than “big up and big down” like the European and American markets. In this regard, we should make a correct judgment, that is, China’s real estate system is different from the European and American real estate systems in terms of structure, pricing and risk release, which also determines that we are not like the IMF judgment, it seems that the future risk is unbearable. Therefore, it is necessary to have a deeper grasp of the Chinese market to judge the corresponding risks, and more importantly, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the force of stability in China next year.

As the recent package debt package and debt issuance will bring about the return of proactive fiscal policy, which will play a significant stabilizing role in China’s economy, we believe that the overall operation of China’s economy in 2024 will further stabilize the total volume and continue to release risks. China’s fiscal expenditure grew negatively in the second and third quarters, and this year’s fiscal policy has not been well returned, which is a very important reason why we believe that the recent recovery has been relatively slow than expected. It is believed that under the return of China’s fiscal policy in the fourth quarter and the re-planning of next year’s plan, as long as the active fiscal policy really plays a role in improving the quality and efficiency, there should be no problem in the further stabilization of China’s economy next year.

The second reason is that marginal improvements in real estate and private investment have been seen across the board and should be further consolidated next year. From the data point of view, private investment in the 1-3 quarter is still negative growth, but the private investment in September after excluding real estate is positive growth, and positive growth rebound speed is relatively fast, this is actually because the current manufacturing situation in China is still good. However, the recovery of the services sector, especially the recovery and investment in the tertiary sector, which is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, is a core for us next year. Grasp this core, you can grasp the stability of next year. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

In the first three quarters of this year, the growth rate of investment in the tertiary industry is less than 2%, but the growth rate of investment in the secondary industry of manufacturing is 8%, which shows that the further spread of the recovery force, especially for the further assistance of small and medium-sized enterprises and the penetration of the service industry, there is still a relatively obvious space next year.

At the same time, the “new three things” that we all talk about now, these new driving forces and the high-speed investment in high and new technologies that has lasted for 15 years will produce a boost to growth, and in fact, it will be a continuous release process in the future.

Finally, we must see where the level of China’s economic growth next year is, and where our key points of risk release are, so that the policy design for next year may be clearer and better grasped. It also involves the question of how to evaluate next year’s economic growth rate. The IMF believes that China’s economic growth rate will drop to 4.2% next year, and the World Bank believes that it will drop to 4.4%. I think their forecasts should be inaccurate, because many research teams are not very accurate in their judgments about China’s risk control mode and the time when China’s new growth potential will continue to be released. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

由CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）转载而成，来源于中国财富管理50人论坛；编辑/翻译：CXO UNIONCXO联盟小U。

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