【观点】华立集团董事会主席汪力成：全球供应链重构势不可逆，这两条路浙企一定要走好、

编者按——

后疫情时代，全球经济将如何演变？作为浙江对外贸易和投资主力军的民营企业，应该如何把握机遇，迎接挑战，实现更高水平、更高质量的新发展？

3月22日，浙江省工商联（浙江省商会）国际合作商会举办了一场“后疫情时代全球经济趋势与展望主题研讨会”。

会上，浙江省工商联国际合作商会会长、华立集团董事会主席汪力成认为，全球正形成分布式的供应体系、制造体系。浙江的制造业企业应该以变应变，通过“走出去”实现产地多元化，充分利用好国际贸易规则，实现自身的高质量发展。

以下是汪力成发言节选——

一、全球供应链正在重构

今天我想谈谈全球秩序重构对中国民企的挑战、机遇和责任。

“百年未有之大变局”的核心或本质是什么？我认为就是全球治理结构的重构，未来谁来主导全球的治理秩序。

我们民营企业，更关心的是经济秩序怎么变。回顾一下中国加入WTO后的历史：2002年初以后，中国快速地成为全球加工、制造中心，自此中国经济开始高速增长，创造了一个世界经济的奇迹。

但到了今天，在大变局的背景下，我们要看到这种日子、这种现象正在改变，其中最主要的一个标志就是——全球供应链正在重构。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

一方面，中国原来以生产要素成本低廉而闻名，但随着中国经济社会的发展，我们的生产要素成本快速上升。所以，靠要素成本低廉来参与国际竞争的时代已经过去了。

而且我个人觉得，我们的要素成本上涨得快了一点。

当前中国正处在以成本引领的竞争策略转向兼顾技术质量的“性价比竞争”的转换过程中，我们的要素成本涨得太快，被一批国家如越南、孟加拉等抓住了机会，来承接劳动密集型产业。

另一方面，新冠疫情暴发以后，世界各国都把供应链安全，上升到了国家政治、经济安全的高度。

大家形成了一个共识：今后不能在全球大分工，因为这个链条太长了，周期也太长了。大家认为缩短供应链的半径，是涉及国家经济安全的一个非常重要的方向，开始人为地推动供应链重构。

在未来，全球供应链要像过去那样由中国来承担所有制造加工环节的时代，已经过去了。

未来会形成一个分布式的生产体系或者制造体系。

不仅是中国，以泰国、越南为中心的东盟，以墨西哥为中心的北美，以摩洛哥、突尼斯为中心的北非，以印度、孟加拉、巴基斯坦为中心的南亚地区，制造体系都会起来。

当然，无论如何，中国的优势始终还是保持：中国有全世界最完善的细分行业，最高效的各行各业品种齐全的供应链；中国发达的民营、小微企业参与供应链环节，分工极细、效率极高；中国人的勤奋高效及中国政府的服务效率全球无人能比。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

所以中国的优势还会在，但是要像原来那样统统都由中国来组织，难度加大。

二、浙江民营企业的两条路

对于浙江企业，尤其是制造业企业而言，本身就处于参与全球供应链分工的关键时期，一定要高度重视全球供应链重构这件事。

按照原有模式，虽然很多企业100%的产品都卖给国外客户，或者100%的产品都参与国际分工，但企业本质还是一家外贸企业，而不是一个国际化的跨国公司。因为它的资源并不是全球配置的，除了市场资源，其所利用的都是中国本土的资源。

全球供应链的重构，大势不可逆，只能顺势而为。

这种改变也不一定是坏事情，它会逼着我们在国内的产业往上游走，也会逼着很多企业从一个外贸出口企业真正转向国际化的跨国公司，进行资源全球配置。

所以，我们的头脑一定要非常清醒：全球疫情进一步加大了全球供应链重构的决心，这种重构调整，正在加速进行中。等，是不可能的。

浙江是民营经济大省、制造业大省、外贸出口大省，浙江的经济外向度非常之高。浙江省委省政府也非常的重视全球供应链重构这件事情。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

浙江参与国际大分工的企业，我认为有两条路可以走——

第一条路：自己在本部，往产业链的上游走。

不能老是去生产低端的东西，浙江的土地、劳动力等各种生产要素成本，已经无法支撑继续用价格作为主要的竞争手段，而且我们完全有能力慢慢地往上走。

但是，原来已经生产十几年的产品，假如已经没有成本和价格上的竞争优势，我觉得你也不要轻易地把它丢掉，完全可以把最后一道或者最终产品转移出去，进行国际产能合作。

这条路径不是今天新出来的，也不是中国人发明的。我们中国改革开放的时候，全世界各个国家也是这样做的。

我们浙江的企业，尤其参与国际分工的，要加大研发力度，不要老是做一点苦活、赚一点小钱。即使做不到像美国那样占据产业链、价值链的最高端，也完全可以像日本、德国那样，占据每个产业链的核心环节。

第二条路：把越来越赚不到钱但国外还是有巨大市场的产品，通过产能合作的形式转移出去，即梯度转移，实现产地多元化。

我们有很多产业，在中国好像没地方可去了，但在有些国家还是填补空白的。

国际贸易纠纷最核心的逻辑，还是原产地政策。只要抓住了这一点，就不会被动。

而在国内本土，民营企业可以腾笼换鸟，去生产更高端的产品，或者生产产业链更上游的、附加值更高的产品，或者是韧性更强的产品。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

在当前状态下，全球战略治理结构要变，全球形成分布式的供应链体系或者生产制造体系，已经是大势所趋。

对于我们企业而言，尤其是参与国际合作的加工制造业企业，应该主动“以变应变”。

这一步跨出去了，说不定外面的世界更精彩，企业也解脱了现在的困境，实现了产地多元化，可以充分利用好国际贸易的游戏规则，同时也在客观上为国家“一带一路”建设做出了贡献。

翻译：

Wang Licheng, Chairman of the Board of directors of Huali Group: The global supply chain restructuring is irreversible, and Zhejiang enterprises must go well in these two roads

Editor’s note —

How will the global economy evolve in the post-pandemic era? As the main force of Zhejiang’s foreign trade and investment, how should the private enterprises grasp the opportunities, meet the challenges, and achieve a higher level and higher quality of new development?

On March 22, the Zhejiang Federation of Industry and Commerce (Zhejiang Chamber of Commerce) International Cooperation Chamber held a seminar on “Global Economic Trends and Prospects in the post-pandemic Era”.

At the meeting, Wang Licheng, chairman of the International Cooperation Chamber of Zhejiang Federation of Industry and Commerce and chairman of the Board of directors of Huali Group, believes that the world is forming a distributed supply system and manufacturing system. Zhejiang’s manufacturing enterprises should adapt to changes, achieve diversification of origin through “going out”, make full use of international trade rules, and achieve their own high-quality development.

The following is an excerpt of Wang Licheng’s speech —

First, global supply chains are being restructured

Today I would like to talk about the challenges, opportunities and responsibilities of global order restructuring for Chinese private enterprises.

What is the core or essence of the “great changes not seen in a century”? I think it is the reconstruction of the global governance structure and who will dominate the global governance order in the future. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Our private enterprises are more concerned about how the economic order changes. Look back at the history of China’s accession to the WTO: After the beginning of 2002, China quickly became a global processing and manufacturing center, and since then China’s economy began to grow rapidly, creating a miracle of the world economy.

But today, in the context of great changes, we have to see this day, this phenomenon is changing, one of the most important signs is that the global supply chain is being restructured.

On the one hand, China used to be known for its low cost of factors of production, but with the development of China’s economy and society, the cost of factors of production has risen rapidly. Therefore, the era of low factor costs to participate in international competition is over.

And I personally think our factor costs are going up a little faster.

At present, China is in the process of shifting from the cost-led competitive strategy to the “cost-effective competition” that takes into account technical quality, and our factor costs are rising too fast, and a number of countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh have seized the opportunity to undertake labor-intensive industries. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

On the other hand, after the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, countries around the world have raised supply chain security to the height of national political and economic security.

We have formed a consensus: the future can not be in the global division of labor, because this chain is too long, the cycle is too long. We believe that shortening the radius of the supply chain is a very important direction related to national economic security, and began to artificially promote supply chain restructuring.

In the future, the era when the global supply chain should be made by China, as in the past, has passed.

In the future, a distributed production system or manufacturing system will be formed.

Not only China, but also ASEAN with Thailand and Vietnam as the center, North America with Mexico as the center, North Africa with Morocco and Tunisia as the center, and South Asia with India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan as the center, will have a manufacturing system.

Of course, no matter what, China’s advantages have always been maintained: China has the world’s most complete subdivision industry, the most efficient supply chain of all walks of life; China’s developed private, small and micro enterprises participate in the supply chain, the division of labor is very fine, high efficiency; The diligence and efficiency of the Chinese people and the service efficiency of the Chinese government are unmatched in the world.

So China’s advantages will still be there, but it will be more difficult to organize everything by China as before. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Second, the two roads of Zhejiang private enterprises

For Zhejiang enterprises, especially manufacturing enterprises, they are in a critical period of participating in the global supply chain division of labor, and must attach great importance to the global supply chain reconstruction.

According to the original model, although many enterprises sell 100% of their products to foreign customers, or 100% of their products participate in the international division of labor, the essence of the enterprise is still a foreign trade enterprise, rather than an international multinational company. Because its resources are not globally allocated, in addition to market resources, it uses China’s local resources.

The restructuring of the global supply chain is irreversible and can only be taken along with the trend.

This change is not necessarily a bad thing, it will force our domestic industry to move upward, but also force many enterprises from a foreign trade export enterprises to truly international multinational companies, global allocation of resources.

Therefore, our minds must be very clear: the global epidemic has further increased the determination of global supply chain restructuring, and this restructuring adjustment is accelerating. Wait, it’s impossible.

Zhejiang is a large province of private economy, manufacturing industry and foreign trade export, and its economy has a very high degree of externality. The provincial government of Zhejiang Province also attaches great importance to global supply chain restructuring.

Zhejiang to participate in the international division of labor enterprises, I think there are two ways to go – CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

The first way: oneself in the headquarters, to the upstream of the industrial chain.

Can not always go to the production of low-end things, the cost of land, labor and other factors of production in Zhejiang, has been unable to support the continued use of price as the main means of competition, and we are fully capable of slowly moving up.

However, if the original product has been produced for more than ten years, if there is no competitive advantage in cost and price, I think you should not easily throw it away, and you can transfer the last or final product out and carry out international production capacity cooperation.

This path is not new today, nor was it invented by the Chinese. When China carried out reform and opening up, other countries in the world did the same.

Our enterprises in Zhejiang, especially those participating in the international division of labor, should increase research and development efforts, and do not always do a little hard work and earn a little money. Even if it cannot occupy the most high-end of the industrial chain and value chain like the United States, it can completely occupy the core link of each industrial chain like Japan and Germany.

The second way: to make more and more money, but there is still a huge market for products abroad, through the form of production capacity cooperation to transfer out, that is, gradient transfer, to achieve diversification of origin.

We have a lot of industries that seem to have nowhere to go in China, but in some countries they are filling the gaps. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

The core logic of international trade disputes is the policy of origin. As long as this is grasped, it will not be passive.

In the domestic local, private enterprises can free the cage to change birds, to produce more high-end products, or produce more upstream of the industrial chain, higher value-added products, or more resilient products.

In the current state, the global strategic governance structure has to change, and the global formation of a distributed supply chain system or production and manufacturing system has been the general trend.

For our enterprises, especially the processing and manufacturing enterprises involved in international cooperation, we should take the initiative to “adapt to change”.

This step to go out, maybe the outside world is more wonderful, enterprises also relieved of the current predicament, to achieve diversification of origin, can make full use of the rules of the game of international trade, but also objectively for the country’s “One Belt, One Road” construction has made contributions. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

由CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）转载而成，来源于涌金楼；编辑/翻译：CXO UNIONCXO联盟小U。

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