【资讯】2024，汽车业22大预言

明天会更难，明天会更好

2023年，是传统豪华车代表BBA遇到空前挑战的一年。

从“蔚小理”到华为、比亚迪，自主品牌们扎堆发布售价50万甚至更高价格的新车型。“再不努力工作，就只能开BBA了”，一度成为社交网络上的热门话题。

2024年，它们还想走得更远。蔚来ET9的野心是“去抢BBA最核心的根据地”，理想则要“挑战BBA在中国区的销量”。

但在贯穿一整年的“冰与火之歌”中，新贵们的日子也不一定好过。

一面是不减的火热：新能源汽车月销首破百万、汽车出口量首次跃居世界第一、世界汽车巨头首次入股新造车公司。

另一面则是刺骨的严寒：从车企到经销商再到供应链，均沦陷于价格战之中，被迫在利润和市场份额之间走钢丝。

进入2024年，天平将向哪个方向倾斜？有哪些昨日的故事会重复上演？又有哪些新面孔会登上舞台？谁会迎来泼天富贵，谁会迷茫彷徨？ CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

雪豹财经社结合行业报告、媒体报道和对业内人士的访谈，对2024年的汽车业做出以下22个判断：

一、特斯拉：跻身万亿美元俱乐部

2023年最后一个交易日，特斯拉市值达到7887亿美元，全年涨幅超过100%。但对于它在2024年的表现，人们看法不一。

韦德布什分析师Dan Ives认为，这家全球市值最高的新能源汽车公司，有望在2024年加入万亿美元俱乐部。美国投行伯恩斯坦分析师Toni Sacconaghi则认为，特斯拉为提振销量将不得不继续降价，利润率进一步下降，而销量也将同样令人失望，特斯拉是“2024最佳做空对象”。

2023年，特斯拉交付181万辆新车，完成销量目标。但由于缺少新车型，降价促销是它过去一年的主要竞争手段。这也导致特斯拉在去年Q3净利润同比近乎腰斩，毛利率跌破18%，创17个季度新低。

摩根士丹利认为，特斯拉汽车毛利前景不容乐观，预计2024年或进一步跌至10%，且不排除特斯拉单季度核心运营利润率变为负值的可能性。

2024年，特斯拉产品线单一的问题可能会有所改善。电动皮卡Cybertruck已于2023年年底开启交付。风险投资机构Loup Ventures预测，特斯拉的平价车型或将于2024年推出，并在2025年中期开始扩大生产。

二、马斯克：有望成为全球首位万亿富豪

云计算采购解决方案提供商Approve.com最新发布的报告称，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克有望在2024年成为全球首位“万亿富豪”。

据《福布斯》富豪榜统计，截至2023年12月15日，马斯克的身家为2549亿美元。他的个人财富在2023年增加了1084亿美元，相当于平均每天财富增加近3亿美元。

在马斯克的商业版图中，特斯拉过去一年市值增长超过100%，接近8000亿美元；SpaceX全年完成96次发射任务，估值超过1500亿美元；X（前推特）被收购后估值腰斩，但仍有190亿美元；创立不到半年的人工智能公司X.AI估值也已达到百亿美元。此外，马斯克还坐拥多家独角兽公司。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

这些公司将在2024年，继续为马斯克的个人财富增长添砖加瓦。

三、比亚迪：销量迈向400万辆

过去3年间，比亚迪将年销量提升了7.37倍。但2024年，机构普遍对其继续狂飙的前景态度审慎。

国盛证券认为，今年比亚迪销量会“相对寡淡”。开源证券和浦银国际证券判断，比亚迪今年“销量增速承压”。浦银国际证券预测了销量数据：有望迈向400万辆，同比增长32.5%，增速比2023年（62.3%）慢了近一半。

销量增速下滑将拖累净利润增速。据浦银国际证券测算，比亚迪今年净利润将同比增长34%。去年前三季度，比亚迪共实现净利润213.67亿元，同比增长129.5%。

出海和向高端市场迈进，将是比亚迪的两大重要方向。目前，比亚迪正加速在欧洲的布局，并宣布将在匈牙利建设其欧洲首个新能源汽车整车生产基地。民生证券在一份研报中表示，今年比亚迪将形成腾势+方程豹+仰望的高端品牌矩阵，全面冲击各价格带。

四、蔚来：全年无新，关键变量是阿尔卑斯

2023年一口气发布6款新车的蔚来，新的一年不再那么拼了。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

2024年全年，蔚来将没有一款新车面世。起售价80万元、目标对手锁定为奔驰S级和宝马7系的ET9，最早也要到2025年一季度才能交付，它的任务是“去抢BBA最核心的根据地”。

“卖车”仍然会是蔚来接下来一年的关键词，但出爆款、冲销量的重任更多地落在了子品牌阿尔卑斯的身上。

阿尔卑斯主攻20万~30万元中端市场，预计2024年5月正式发布。蔚来2024年将新增的1000座换电站，建设重点也将转变为服务阿尔卑斯和其他合作车企。但关于首款车型的上市时机，李斌似乎并不着急。他打算“等大家筋疲力竭了再推”，做“掀桌子”的人。

国盛证券预计，蔚来2024年全年销量有望达到20万辆以上。这与李斌的判断相仿。他预计2024年一季度后，蔚来能稳定保持在2万辆以上月销，争取保住30万以上纯电市场40%以上的市场份额。

五、理想：销量挑战BBA，纯电和智驾加速补课

“挑战BBA在中国区的销量，2024年成为销量第一的豪华品牌。”这句发在微博上的豪言壮语，被李想带到了财报电话会上，成为理想汽车2024年的第一大目标。

2024年，理想的目标销量为80万辆，比上一年翻了一倍还多，刚好超过2022年BBA中最高的宝马（79.2万辆）。

除了挑战BBA，理想在2024年还有两个目标。一是通过L6进入20万~30万元售价区间的增程市场，交付3款纯电新车；二是推出基于大模型实现的、覆盖全部城市的NOA（自主辅助导航驾驶）。

六、小鹏汽车：降本、下沉和出海

曾畅想2024年将出现飞行汽车的何小鹏，不得不花心思解决眼前地面上的难题。

2023年Q1开始，小鹏的整车毛利率连续3个季度为负，这让继续降本变得迫在眉睫。何小鹏的目标是，到2024年底实现整体成本降低25%，毛利率显著改善。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

与降本同等重要的任务是增效。2024年，小鹏将继续在多个价格区间扩充产品阵容。MPV车型X9于1月1日上市，目标是“成为30万元以上中国纯电MPV市场销量第一名”。15万元级别的MONA预计Q3上市，何小鹏认为将年销10万辆以上。此外，小鹏还将推出两款现有车型的改款。

2024年，小鹏将继续布局三四线城市销售网点，提高低线城市的销量。小鹏旗下目前最走量的G6将先后登陆欧洲和东南亚市场，NGP（智能导航辅助驾驶）也将全面覆盖欧洲。

七、小米汽车：首战即决战，新车不便宜

小米汽车在2024年开启前3天正式亮相。雷军花3个小时公布了除定价外的几乎所有产品、技术细节，同时也为这辆车的“不便宜”打足预防针，“小米汽车设立的目标就是媲美保时捷和特斯拉”。

小米汽车并未给出2024年具体的销售目标，但雷军曾在其个人传记中提及，小米汽车要做到全球前五、年出货量1000万辆以上，才有意义。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

雷军的终极目标能否实现，定价将成为决定性因素之一。天风证券分析师郭明錤此前预测，小米汽车售价将低于30万元，2024年的出货量预估为5万~6万辆；若售价接近甚至低于25万元，则出货量有上涨空间。

市场对小米汽车的定价预期普遍在20万~30万元之间，而这一价格区间竞争尤为激烈。此外，雷军的目标是到2024年进入自动驾驶行业第一阵营，这也是一场硬仗。

八、华为：重回牌桌，发力线下渠道建设

2024年，不造车的华为仍将是新能源汽车牌桌上不可忽视的玩家之一。

华为智能汽车解决方案BU董事长余承东在新年全员信中，用“逆风翻盘、绝地反击”来总结过去的一年：华为智选的首个品牌问界经历了低谷与复苏；拆分车BU，以打消合作伙伴对“失去灵魂”的担忧；将华为智选升级为鸿蒙智行，打造“生态品牌联盟”。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

余承东2024年的计划，是继续建立鸿蒙智行生态联盟，实现商业成功。

2024年，华为与“兄弟们”合作的多款新车型将陆续面世，其中包括与赛力斯合作、将于2月底开启交付的问界M9，以及与奇瑞合作的首款车型智界S7，与江淮、北汽合作的智选车也计划在今年上市。华为正在为智选车建设独立的鸿蒙智行门店，预计今年门店数量将达到800家左右，2025年冲击1000家。

平安证券研报预计，华为深度赋能车型（问界、智界）2024年国内销量有望达67万辆，或将超过特斯拉。

九、滴滴：放弃造车，夺回网约车市场

为造车两年亏了30亿后，滴滴在2023年选择了放弃“单干”，以54亿的总对价将造车项目卖给了小鹏汽车。

二者将共同推出代号为MONA的新品牌，首款量产车型将是一款售价15万元的A级智能电动汽车，预计于2024年上市，目标人群是C端消费者和B端网约车队等运营车辆需求方。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

共享出行业务仍然是滴滴的基本盘。经历长达18个月的下架后，滴滴APP于2023年1月重新上架应用商店，恢复新用户注册。重回牌桌后的滴滴定下了激进的日单量增长目标：2023年增长45%，2024年和2025年每年增长10%~15%。

多位长期关注出行领域的券商分析师告诉雪豹财经社，滴滴的自营网约车业务未来几年增长空间有限，主要增长点将来自客单价更低的拼车业务和面向下沉市场的独立品牌花小猪。

十、国内车市，大盘微增

车市大盘将继续保持微增趋势。乘联会秘书长崔东树预计，2024年，国内乘用车零售量将增长3%至2220万辆，增速相比上一年的5.6%有所放缓；新能源乘用车批发销量为1100万辆，同比增长22%，低于2023年的36.5%。

标普全球汽车中国区行业分析总监陶杲表示，2024年国内汽车市场产销量将呈现前低后高的走势，上半年致力于去库存，真正量的提升预计集中在下半年。

更慢的增速势必带来更为激烈的竞争。国投证券在一份研报中称，最激烈的竞争将来自20万～30万元价格带。

十一、全球车市，谨慎复苏

标普全球移动预计，2024年全球新车销量将达到8830万辆，同比增长5.6%，增速与去年持平。该机构全球轻型汽车预测执行董事Colin Couchman认为，今年将是全球汽车行业迎来谨慎复苏的一年。

新能源汽车的销量增速将显著高于行业整体增速。中金在一份研报预计，2024年全球新能源车销量有望达到1700万～1800万辆，同比增长30%～35%。

在新卖出的汽车中，将会有越来越多的纯电车型。标普全球移动预计，2024年纯电车型全球销量将达到1330万辆，同比增长38.5%，比上一年的32.8%有所提升。

十二、价格战，不休不止

被特斯拉挑起的价格战，并不会在2024年画上休止符。

多家机构预测，今年车企仍将承受以价换量带来的压力。华创证券在一份研报中称，2023年至2024年，可能诞生将载入中国车市史册的价格战。比亚迪董事长王传福判断，这场战争还要持续三到五年。

“汽车厂商之前强调的服务、运营、产品定位等竞争壁垒，都变得不再那么有效，只有降价才是最有效的。”中国汽车流通协会专家委员会成员李颜伟如是评论。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

十三、燃油车：“绝望”的明日黄花

新能源汽车替代燃油车的进程将在2024年加速，插混车型将是这一趋势的加速器。

麦肯锡表示，今年插混车型将继续成为助推中国新能源车渗透率在高基础上进一步增长的核心力量，并给燃油车带来堪称“绝望”的替代压力。惠誉也认为，插混车型将成为国内汽车市场的主要增长引擎。

平安证券预计，2024年，国内燃油车零售量将减少80万～100万辆，受影响较大的品牌为大众、通用、丰田、本田、日产以及自主品牌燃油车。

十四、高端市场：进击的自主品牌站上C位

2023年年底，蔚来发布了预售价80万元起的行政旗舰轿车ET9，问界发布了起售价46.98万元的问界M9。在此之前，还有109.8万元的比亚迪仰望U8、76.9万元起的极氪001 FR，以及预售价不到60万元的理想纯电MPV。

“再不努力工作，就只能开BBA了”，一度成为社交网络上的热门话题。

与此同时，传统豪华车的售价越来越低。华创证券预计，今年豪华品牌B级和C级车降价幅度可能超过15%。

麦肯锡在一份研报中表示，在今年，传统豪车品牌在燃油车时代积累下的品牌口碑将遇到更大挑战，50万元以上区间预计将出现越来越多的中国品牌智能电动汽车。

十五、动力电池：产能过剩延续，价格战风险增加

笼罩动力电池行业的产能过剩阴霾，2024年仍难以消散。高工产业研究院预计，即使在剔除无效产能的情况下，2024年国内动力电池市场有效产能利用率仍将低于60%。

动力电池行业的整体增速也将随新能源汽车销量增速一同放缓。东证期货预计，今年国内动力电池需求量将达546GWh，同比增长27%，相较去年40%的增幅有所放缓。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

产能过剩、增速放缓，再加上车企纷纷自研电池，让降价成为动力电池企业争夺市场的武器。西南证券预计，未来动力电池价格战风险将增加。华泰证券则认为，高压之下，龙头企业优势将愈发凸显，行业盈利能力或将继续分化。

十六补能：800V高压快充将成纯电车标配

国联证券预计，基于800V高压的快充方案有望成为2024年纯电车型的标配。

800V高压平台已成为了各车企发力的新战场。相较于400V平台，800V高压平台在功率不变的前提下，可将充电速度提升一倍以上。以小鹏的首个量产800V高压SiC平台为例，充电5分钟最高可补充续航200公里。

在换电赛道，蔚来将在2024年新增1000座换电站，与去年基本持平。开源证券在一份研报中预计，2025年国内换电产业市场规模有望达到1334亿元。

十七、自动驾驶：城市NOA挑大梁

中国银河证券预计，城市NOA将成为2024年自动驾驶产业的主旋律。西部证券预测，今年搭载NOA的车型将达到169万辆，同比增长141.43%。

2023年，受特斯拉基于视觉系统的3D感知自动驾驶系统（BEV+Transformer）影响，“重感知，轻地图”成为关键词。这条不依赖高精地图的技术路线可以减少软件成本与传感器用量，让智能驾驶可以覆盖更多车型。

华西证券表示，智驾目前已有效影响消费者购车决策，未来能够找准差异化卖点、技术领先的头部车企，将在“标配智驾”时代形成差异化，并保持两年以上的领先优势。

十八、中国汽车出口数量或将刷新记录

乘联会秘书长崔东树预计，2024年乘用车出口数量将达430万辆。安信证券在一份研报中的预测更为乐观：475万辆，同比增长20%。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

无论哪个数字，都将是刷新纪录的成绩。据乘联会数据，去年，乘用车出口383万辆，同比增长62%，创历史新高。机构普遍预计，东南亚和南美是重要的增量市场。

在乘用车出海进程中，新能源汽车所扮演的角色越来越重要。野村东方国际证券预计，新能源乘用车的出口占比将由2023年的28%上升至35%。

此外，中国汽车出海有望迈入属地运营的全新阶段。麦肯锡在一份研报中表示，将有越来越多的国内车企从单纯的整车出口，过渡到属地组装、属地采购及生产，乃至属地研发。

十九、并购与破产：加速整合的2024

一份来自6年前的报告曾精准预测了2024年车企走向并购的可能性。罗兰贝格于2018年的一份报告中指出，预计从2024年开始，传统车企和新势力造车企业的合作模式将进一步加深，逐步出现新旧势力间的并购与行业整合。

未来，并购不仅仅发生在新旧势力的洗牌之间。麦肯锡指出，中国车市的整合趋势将在2024年换挡提速，并购将成为行业热词。对急于补齐电动化和智能化差距的外资车企及供应商而言，并购的迫切性不言而喻。同时，并购也会发生在头部车企对技术创新企业、相对弱势企业之间。

伴随车企的马太效应，新能源汽车的尾部梯队或将面临惨淡的收局，包括遭遇破产危机、如今仍在推动公司重组的威马汽车，被冻结2.4亿股权的天际汽车，拖欠薪资的爱驰等企业摇摇欲坠。

海外汽车新势力也面临着同样的情况。CFRA汽车分析师Garrett Nelson指出，Rivian、Polestar、Lucid 和 Fisker 等车企可能因盈利问题和高现金消耗率面临挑战。

二十、经销商：或有一丝喘息之机

在压库和价格战的冲击下，经销商去年的日子并不好过。据中国汽车流通协会统计，2023年只有37.4%的经销商完成全年任务。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

今年，经销商们或能得到喘息之机。华创证券预计，汽车行业今年有望从主动去库存进入被动去库存，因此景气或库存对价格的影响在今年将相对减弱，这意味经销商终端折扣将减少。

二十一、行业薪资：智能网联打工人涨薪最多

中智咨询研究院预测，汽车行业2023年调薪率为5%，今年预计将趋于持平。如果按行业细分，共享出行、整车和汽车零部件行业的从业者在今年调薪率将不如去年，其中调薪率最低的是整车从业者（4.8%）；新能源汽车、汽车服务和智能网联从业者今年调薪率将超过去年，其中，智能网联从业者或能得到最高的调薪率（8.5%）。

二十二、二手车市场：政策利好下，继续正增长

2023年是二手车新政策全面落地执行的第一年，接下来，增值税减收政策持续或将进一步利好市场发展。中国汽车流通协会发布的调查显示，二手车经理人中超七成预计2024年二手车销量为正增长，其中33.3%认为增长比例在0%~10%之间。

翻译：

22 predictions for the automotive industry by 2024

Tomorrow will be harder, tomorrow will be better

The year 2023 is a year of unprecedented challenges for traditional luxury cars on behalf of BBA.

From “Wei Xiaoli” to Huawei and BYD, independent brands have flocked to release new models priced at 500,000 yuan or even higher. “If you don’t work hard, you’ll have to open a BBA,” once became a trending topic on social networks.

In 2024, they want to go even further. The ambition of WEilai ET9 is to “grab the core base of BBA”, and the ideal is to “challenge the sales of BBA in China”.

But in the “Song of Ice and Fire” that runs through the year, the upstarts don’t necessarily have it easy either.

On the one hand, it is undiminished hot: the monthly sales of new energy vehicles have exceeded one million for the first time, the export volume of automobiles has jumped to the first place in the world, and the world’s auto giants have bought shares in new car companies for the first time.

On the other side is a biting cold: from car companies to dealers to supply chains, everyone is locked in a price war, forced to walk a tightrope between profit and market share.

Heading into 2024, which way will the scales tip? Which of yesterday’s stories will be repeated? And which new faces will take the stage? Who will usher in a magnificent wealth, who will be confused and wandering? CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Combining industry reports, media reports and interviews with industry insiders, Snow Leopard Financial News makes the following 22 judgments about the automotive industry in 2024:

1. Tesla: Joining the trillion-dollar club

On the last trading day of 2023, Tesla’s market value reached $788.7 billion, an increase of more than 100% for the year. But opinions are mixed on how it will fare in 2024.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes that the world’s most valuable new energy vehicle company is expected to join the trillion-dollar club in 2024. Us investment bank Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi believes that Tesla will have to continue to reduce prices in order to boost sales, profit margins will further decline, and sales will be equally disappointing, Tesla is “2024 best short object.”

In 2023, Tesla delivered 1.81 million new vehicles, meeting its sales target. But due to a lack of new models, cut-price promotions have been its main means of competition over the past year. This also led to Tesla’s net profit in Q3 last year was nearly halved, and gross profit margin fell below 18%, a new low for 17 quarters. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Morgan Stanley believes that the outlook for Tesla’s gross profit is not optimistic, and it is expected to fall further to 10% in 2024, and does not rule out the possibility of Tesla’s core operating margin turning negative in a single quarter.

In 2024, the single issue of Tesla’s product line may improve. Deliveries of the electric Cybertruck will begin at the end of 2023. Loup Ventures, a venture capital firm, predicts that Tesla’s affordable model could be launched in 2024, with expanded production beginning in mid-2025.

Tesla Cybertruck source: Tesla China official website

2. Musk: is expected to become the world’s first trillionaire

Tesla CEO Elon Musk is on track to become the world’s first trillionaire by 2024, according to a new report from Approve.com, a cloud computing procurement solution provider.

According to the Forbes Rich List, Musk is worth $254.9 billion as of December 15, 2023. His personal wealth increased by $108.4 billion in 2023, which equates to an average daily wealth increase of nearly $300 million.

In Musk’s business landscape, Tesla’s market value increased by more than 100% in the past year to nearly $800 billion; SpaceX completed 96 launches a year and was valued at more than $150 billion; X (formerly Twitter) was acquired at a halving valuation, but still worth $19 billion; X.AI, an artificial intelligence company founded less than half a year ago, is also valued at 10 billion dollars. Musk also owns a number of unicorns. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

These companies will continue to add to Musk’s personal wealth in 2024.

3. Byd: Sales toward 4 million

Over the past three years, BYD has increased its annual sales by 7.37 times. But in 2024, institutions are generally cautious about the prospect of their continued wild ride.

Guosheng Securities believes that BYD sales will be “relatively light” this year. Open source Securities and Pudong Bank International Securities judge that BYD’s “sales growth rate is under pressure” this year. Pudong Bank International Securities forecast sales data: is expected to reach 4 million units, an increase of 32.5%, the growth rate than 2023 (62.3%) is nearly half slower.

Falling sales growth will drag down net profit growth. Byd’s net profit will rise 34% this year, according to estimates by Pudong International Securities. In the first three quarters of last year, BYD posted a net profit of 21.367 billion yuan, up 129.5% year on year.

Going to sea and moving to the high-end market will be two important directions for BYD. At present, BYD is accelerating its layout in Europe, and announced that it will build its first European new energy vehicle production base in Hungary. Minsheng Securities said in a research report that BYD will form a high-end brand matrix of Denza + Equation Leopard + look up this year, and comprehensively impact the price belt.

Qin PLUS DM-i champion map source: BYD Weibo

4. NiO: there is no new throughout the year, the key variable is the Alps

Nio, which released six new cars in 2023, is no longer so hard in the New Year.

Throughout 2024, NIO will not have a single new car on the market. The starting price of 800,000 yuan, the target opponent is locked for the Mercedes-Benz S-class and BMW 7 series ET9, the earliest can be delivered until the first quarter of 2025, its task is to “grab the core base of BBA.”

“Selling cars” will still be the keyword of Wei for the next year, but the heavy responsibility of explosive models and sales fell more on the sub-brand Alps.

Alpine focuses on the middle market of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan and is expected to be officially released in May 2024. Nio will add 1,000 power stations in 2024, and the focus of construction will also be changed to serve Alpine and other cooperative car companies. But when it comes to the launch of the first model, Li Bin does not seem to be in a hurry. He plans to “push until everyone is exhausted” and be the person who “flips the table.” CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Guosheng Securities expects that NIO’s annual sales in 2024 are expected to reach more than 200,000 vehicles. This is similar to Li Bin’s judgment. He expects that after the first quarter of 2024, NIO can maintain a stable monthly sales of more than 20,000 vehicles, and strive to maintain more than 40% of the market share of the pure electricity market of more than 300,000.

Nio ET9 Source: NIO official website

5. ideal: sales challenge BBA, pure electricity and intelligent driving accelerated remedial lessons

“Challenge BBA’s sales in China and become the number one selling luxury brand by 2024.” This bold words sent on Weibo were brought to the earnings call by Li Xiang and became the first major goal of Ideal Car in 2024.

In 2024, the ideal target is 800,000 units, more than double the previous year, and just ahead of BMW (792,000 units), the highest in the 2022 BBA.

In addition to challenging the BBA, the ideal 2024 has two other goals. The first is to enter the extended range market with a price range of 200,000 to 300,000 yuan through L6, and deliver 3 pure electric new cars; The second is to launch NOA (Autonomous Assisted Navigation and Driving) based on a large model that covers all cities.

Ideal the first pure electric MPV model MEGA, the price is not higher than 600,000
Photo source: Ideal car public number

6. Xiaopeng car: cost reduction, sinking and sea

He Xiaopeng, who once imagined flying cars would appear in 2024, had to think hard to solve the problems on the ground. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Since the Q1 of 2023, Xiaopeng’s vehicle gross profit margin has been negative for three consecutive quarters, which makes continued cost reduction imminent. He Xiaopeng’s goal is to achieve a 25% reduction in overall costs and a significant improvement in gross margins by the end of 2024.

Just as important as cost reduction is efficiency. In 2024, Xopeng will continue to expand its product lineup in multiple price ranges. The MPV model X9 went on sale on January 1, with the goal of “becoming the number one in China’s pure electric MPV market with sales above 300,000 yuan.” The MONA of 150,000 yuan is expected to be listed in Q3, and He Xiaopeng believes that it will sell more than 100,000 vehicles annually. In addition, Xiaopeng will also launch two changes to existing models.

In 2024, Xiaopeng will continue to lay out sales outlets in third – and fourth-tier cities and increase sales in lower-tier cities. Xiaopeng’s current most popular G6 will have landed in Europe and Southeast Asia markets, and NGP (Intelligent navigation assisted driving) will also fully cover Europe.

X9 is Xiaopeng’s first MPV model, with a starting price of 388,000 yuan
Photo source: Xiaopeng car public number

7. Millet car: the first battle is the final battle, the new car is not cheap

The Mi car was officially unveiled three days before the start of 2024. Lei Jun spent three hours announcing almost all products and technical details in addition to pricing, and also prepared for the “not cheap” of the car, “the goal set by Xiaomi car is comparable to Porsche and Tesla.”

Xiaomi car did not give a specific sales target for 2024, but Lei Jun mentioned in his personal biography that Xiaomi car must do the world’s top five, annual shipments of more than 10 million vehicles, it is meaningful.

Whether Lei Jun’s ultimate goal can be achieved, pricing will become one of the decisive factors. Tianfeng Securities analyst Guo Ming𫠓¹ previously predicted that the price of millet cars will be less than 300,000 yuan, and the shipments in 2024 are estimated to be 50,000 to 6 If the price is close to or even lower than 250,000 yuan, the shipment has room to increase.

The market’s pricing expectations for Xiaomi cars are generally between 200,000 and 300,000 yuan, and the competition in this price range is particularly fierce. In addition, Lei Jun’s goal is to enter the first camp of the autonomous driving industry by 2024, which is also a tough battle.

Mi SU7 Figure source: Mi Auto official website

8. Huawei: Return to the poker table and make efforts to build offline channels

In 2024, Huawei, which does not build cars, will still be one of the players on the new energy vehicle table that cannot be ignored.

In the New Year’s letter, Yu Chengdong, chairman of Huawei Intelligent Car Solution BU, summed up the past year with “turning against the wind and fighting back against the Jedi” : The first brand of Huawei Intelligent election has experienced a trough and recovery; Split the car BU to dispel partners’ concerns about “losing their souls”; Upgrade Huawei Wisdom to Hongmeng Wisdom, and create an “ecological brand alliance”. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Yu Chengdong’s plan for 2024 is to continue to build the Hongmeng Zhixing Ecological Alliance and achieve commercial success.

In 2024, a number of new models of Huawei’s cooperation with “brothers” will be launched one after another, including the Q Jie M9, which will be delivered by the end of February in cooperation with Celis, and the first model of Wisdom S7, which is also planned to be launched this year in cooperation with JAC and BAIC. Huawei is building independent Hongmeng Zhixing stores for smart cars, and the number of stores is expected to reach about 800 this year and hit 1,000 in 2025.

Ping An Securities research report is expected that Huawei’s deep enabling models (ask the world, intelligence) are expected to reach 670,000 domestic sales in 2024, or will exceed Tesla.

Ask the M9 picture source: Hongmeng Zhixing official website

9. Didi: Give up making cars and take back the car-hailing market

After losing 3 billion for two years to build a car, Didi chose to give up “going it alone” in 2023 and sold the car-building project to Xiaopeng Automobile for a total consideration of 5.4 billion.

The two will jointly launch A new brand code-named MONA, and the first mass-production model will be an A-class intelligent electric vehicle priced at 150,000 yuan, which is expected to be launched in 2024, targeting C-end consumers and B-end online contract fleets and other operational vehicle demand side.

The ride-sharing business is still Didi’s basic disk. After being removed for 18 months, the Didi APP was re-placed on the app store in January 2023, resuming new user registration. After returning to the table, Didi has set an aggressive daily volume growth target: 45% growth in 2023, and 10% to 15% annual growth in 2024 and 2025. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

A number of long-term attention to the field of travel securities analysts told the Snow Leopard financial news agency that Didi’s self-operated network car business growth space is limited in the next few years, the main growth point will come from the lower passenger unit price of the carpooling business and the independent brand for the sinking market flower Xiaozhu.

10. the domestic car market, the market increased slightly

The car market will continue to maintain a slight increase trend. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the association, expects domestic retail passenger car sales to grow 3% to 22.2 million units in 2024, slowing from 5.6% in the previous year. Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 11 million units, up 22 percent year on year, down from 36.5 percent in 2023.

S&p Global auto China industry analysis director Tao Gao said that in 2024, the domestic auto market production and sales will show a trend of low after high, the first half of the year is committed to destocking, and the real increase in volume is expected to focus on the second half of the year.

Slower growth will inevitably lead to more intense competition. State Investment Securities said in a research report that the fiercest competition will come from the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan price belt.

11, the global car market, cautious recovery

S&p Global Mobility expects global new vehicle sales to reach 88.3 million units in 2024, up 5.6% from a year earlier and at the same pace as last year. Colin Couchman, the agency’s executive director of global Light vehicle forecasting, believes this year will be a year of cautious recovery for the global auto industry.

The sales growth rate of new energy vehicles will be significantly higher than the overall growth rate of the industry. Cicc in a research report estimates that the global sales of new energy vehicles in 2024 is expected to reach 17 million to 18 million, an increase of 30% to 35%.

Among the new cars sold, there will be an increasing number of pure electric models. S&p Global Mobile expects global sales of all-electric models to reach 13.3 million units in 2024, an increase of 38.5% from the previous year’s 32.8%. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

12. Price war, endless

The price war started by Tesla will not end in 2024.

A number of institutions predict that this year, car companies will continue to bear the pressure of price in exchange for volume. Huachuang Securities said in a research report that from 2023 to 2024, the price war that will be recorded in the history of the Chinese auto market may be born. Byd Chairman Wang Chuanfu reckons the battle will continue for another three to five years.

“Competitive barriers, such as service, operation and product positioning, which automakers emphasized before, are no longer so effective, and only price cuts are the most effective.” Li Yanwei, a member of the Expert Committee of the China Automobile Dealers Association, commented.

13, fuel vehicles: “despair” of the past

The process of replacing fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles will accelerate in 2024, and plug-in models will be the accelerator of this trend.

McKinsey said that this year, plug-in models will continue to be the core force driving the further growth of China’s new energy vehicle penetration rate on a high basis, and bring “desperate” alternative pressure to fuel vehicles. Fitch also believes that plug-in models will become the main growth engine of the domestic auto market.

Ping An Securities expects that in 2024, the domestic retail sales of fuel vehicles will be reduced by 800,000 to 1 million, and the most affected brands are Volkswagen, GM, Toyota, Honda, Nissan and their own brand fuel vehicles. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

14, high-end market: attack the independent brand on the C position

At the end of 2023, NIO released the executive flagship sedan ET9 with a pre-sale price starting from 800,000 yuan, and Ask released the Ask M9 with a starting price of 469,800 yuan. Before this, there are 1.098 million BYD looking up to U8, 769,000 yuan of polar Krypton 001 FR, and the pre-sale price of less than 600,000 yuan of the ideal pure electric MPV.

“If you don’t work hard, you’ll have to open a BBA,” once became a trending topic on social networks.

At the same time, traditional luxury cars are getting cheaper. Huachuang Securities estimates that prices for luxury brands’ B – and C-class cars could fall by more than 15 per cent this year.

McKinsey said in a research report that this year, the brand reputation of traditional luxury car brands accumulated in the era of fuel vehicles will encounter greater challenges, and more and more Chinese brands are expected to appear in the range of more than 500,000 yuan intelligent electric vehicles.

Look up U8 Figure source: Look up Weibo

15, power battery: overcapacity continues, and the risk of price war increases

The haze of excess capacity over the power battery industry is still difficult to dissipate in 2024. The high-tech Industry Research Institute expects that even in the case of eliminating ineffective capacity, the effective capacity utilization rate of the domestic power battery market will still be less than 60% in 2024. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

The overall growth rate of the power battery industry will also slow down with the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales. It is expected that the domestic demand for power batteries will reach 546GWh this year, an increase of 27% compared to last year’s 40% growth has slowed down.

Overcapacity, slowing growth, coupled with auto companies have developed their own batteries, so that price cuts have become a weapon for power battery companies to compete for the market. Southwest Securities expects that the future power battery price war risk will increase. Huatai Securities believes that under high pressure, the advantages of leading enterprises will become more prominent, and the profitability of the industry will continue to differentiate.

16 supplementary energy: 800V high voltage fast charge will become a pure tram standard

Guolian Securities expects that the fast charge scheme based on 800V high voltage is expected to become the standard for pure electric models in 2024.

The 800V high voltage platform has become a new battlefield for various vehicle companies. Compared with the 400V platform, the 800V high-voltage platform can more than double the charging speed without changing the power. Taking Xiaopeng’s first mass-produced 800V high-voltage SiC platform as an example, the maximum supplementary battery life of 200 kilometers can be charged for 5 minutes.

In the power change circuit, NIO will add 1,000 power change stations in 2024, which is basically the same as last year. Open source Securities predicted in a research report that the domestic power industry market size is expected to reach 133.4 billion yuan in 2025.

Weilai power station map source: Weilai public number

17. Autonomous driving: Urban NOA takes the lead

China Galaxy Securities predicts that urban NOA will become the main theme of the autonomous driving industry in 2024. Western Securities forecasts that the number of models carrying NOA this year will reach 1.69 million, an increase of 141.43%.

In 2023, influenced by Tesla’s 3D sensing automatic driving system based on vision system (BEV+Transformer), “heavy perception, light map” has become a key word. This technological route, which does not rely on high-precision maps, can reduce software costs and sensor usage, allowing intelligent driving to cover more vehicles.

Huaxi Securities said that smart driving has effectively affected consumers’ car purchase decisions, and the head car companies that can identify differentiated selling points and technology leaders in the future will form differentiation in the era of “standard smart driving” and maintain a leading advantage of more than two years. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

18. The number of Chinese automobile exports may set a new record

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the association, predicted that the number of passenger car exports will reach 4.3 million in 2024. Essence Securities in a research report forecast more optimistic: 4.75m units, up 20 per cent year on year.

Either number would be a record. Last year, 3.83 million passenger cars were exported, up 62 percent year on year and a record high, according to the Passenger Federation. Southeast Asia and South America are generally expected to be important incremental markets.

In the process of passenger cars going to sea, new energy vehicles are playing an increasingly important role. Nomura Oriental International Securities predicts that the share of new-energy passenger vehicle exports will rise from 28% in 2023 to 35%.

In addition, Chinese cars are expected to enter a new stage of territorial operation. McKinsey said in a research report that more and more domestic car companies will transition from simple vehicle exports to territorial assembly, territorial procurement and production, and even territorial research and development. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

19. M&a and Bankruptcy: Accelerating consolidation by 2024

A report from six years ago accurately predicted the possibility of car companies moving toward mergers and acquisitions in 2024. Roland Berger pointed out in a 2018 report that it is expected that from 2024 onwards, the cooperation model between traditional car companies and new power car manufacturers will be further deepened, and gradually there will be mergers and acquisitions and industry integration between new and old forces.

In the future, mergers and acquisitions will not just take place between the old and the new. McKinsey pointed out that the consolidation trend of China’s auto market will shift gears and accelerate in 2024, and mergers and acquisitions will become a hot word in the industry. For foreign car companies and suppliers eager to fill the gap between electrification and intelligence, the urgency of mergers and acquisitions is self-evident. At the same time, mergers and acquisitions will also occur between the leading car enterprises and technological innovation enterprises and relatively weak enterprises.

With the Matthew effect of car companies, the tail echelon of new energy vehicles may face a bleak closure, including Weima Automobile, which is still promoting the reorganization of the company, and Tianji Automobile, which is frozen with 240 million shares, and Ai Chi, which is in arrears with wages, are teetering. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

The same is true for overseas auto newcomers. CFRA auto analyst Garrett Nelson said Rivian, Polestar, Lucid and Fisker could face challenges due to profitability issues and high cash burn rates.

20, dealer: Or there is a breathing room

Under the impact of storage and price wars, dealers had a difficult time last year. According to the statistics of China Automobile Dealers Association, only 37.4% of dealers will complete the annual task in 2023.

This year, dealers may get a break. Huachuang Securities expects that the auto industry is expected to enter passive destocking from active destocking this year, so the impact of prosperity or inventory on prices will be relatively weakened this year, which means that dealer terminal discounts will be reduced.

Industry keywords in 2023 in the eyes of dealers
Photo Source: China Automobile Dealers Association

21. Industry salaries: Smart network workers have the most salary increases

The China Intelligence Consulting Institute predicts that the wage increase rate of the automotive industry will be 5% in 2023, and it is expected to be flat this year. If broken down by industry, practitioners in the shared travel, vehicle and auto parts industries will not have the same salary rate this year as last year, of which the lowest salary rate is vehicle practitioners (4.8%); New energy vehicles, automotive services and intelligent network practitioners will increase their salary rate this year than last year, of which intelligent network practitioners may get the highest salary increase rate (8.5%). CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

22. Used car market: Under favorable policies, it continues to grow positively

2023 is the first year of the full implementation of the new second-hand car policy, and next, the continuation of the VAT reduction policy will further benefit the market development. According to a survey released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, more than 70% of used car managers expect a positive growth in used car sales in 2024, of which 33.3% believe that the growth rate is between 0% and 10%.

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