【CEO观点】沃尔玛中国总裁及首席执行官朱晓静：穿越周期，在不确定中创造确定

去年年会在上海，那时我分享的主题是，随着我们进入一个新的零售发展周期，从增量市场进入到存量市场为主，零售企业的核心制胜能力，也从规模扩张能力转为获客与留客能力，企业需要坚持长期主义，做难而正确的事。很巧，当时这个观点和裴会长提出来的从外延式扩张转入内涵式发展，是不谋而合的。

今年我的分享主题是：在不确定性中，我们要做的是回归零售的本质，也就是提升商品力，提升供应链整体效率，为顾客和会员持续地创造价值。我们认为所谓走“难而正确的路”，这条路之所以难，其实不在于想到，而在于做到，并且是持续的每年、每月、每天、每个小时去做到，是“千淘万漉虽辛苦，吹尽狂沙始到金”。当时引用的这两句诗，又和裴会长的发言撞了车。这其实也说明，大家对于行业的关键思考是有共鸣的。

这两天我一直在想，今天该说些什么。消费市场挑战、经济周期波动的压力等等，这些已经不必讨论了。管理学家亨利·明茨伯格（Henry Mintzberg）在《写给管理者的睡前故事》一书中，谈及“时代变革”时有一段有趣的文字：“当一位CEO坐在笔记本电脑前准备一篇发言稿时，电脑会自动打出这些字：我们生活在大变革时代，之所以如此，是因为在过去50年里，几乎每篇演讲都以这句话开头。这点从来没变”。所以，变化是唯一的永恒。而在今天，市场的不确定性已经成为了共识，它已经成为了确定性。

一、再难的市场，也有增长的空间和机会

今天想分享的第一个体会，是再难的市场，也有增长的空间和机会。

“周期波动”，就如春夏秋冬的四季变化，是市场经济逃不掉的规律。寒冷的冬天的确是有挑战的，在经济下行周期，有的企业甚至是领先的企业会削弱和迷失，甚至逃跑出局。很多企业的第一反应，是要确保熬过冬天活下来，这当然是重要的。

但是中国传统认为，冬至一阳生，阴极、阳起、万物生。冬天有孕育一切的基础，往往是新的开始。在商业领域，很多历史记录也证明，往往卓越的公司，是在市场下行的时候抓住机会发展壮大的，并且要穿越好几个经济周期，才能真正确立其历史地位，验证他们安身立命的准则的含金量。这其中不断经受过考验的公司，就有沃尔玛。大家可能知道，沃尔玛是从美国小镇上起家的。但还有一个背景容易被忽视，那就是在美国，沃尔玛从一家小店起家发展到今天，经历了至少8次大的经济衰退的洗礼。

有两组关键的数据对比和大家分享。

一组是行业平均增速。在70到80年代大部分时间里，受经济衰退影响，美国零售行业的平均增速只有2%，同一时期，沃尔玛有38%的逆势增长。到1990年，沃尔玛也正是延续了这样的势头，成为美国第一大零售商。

另一组数据是门店的新增数量。沃尔玛花了18年时间，稳健地把开店数量提升到276家。沃尔玛的创始人山姆·沃尔顿（Sam Walton）先生曾经回忆说，人们想到沃尔玛总是有这样一种印象：它是一个凭空设想出来的东西，然后在一夜之间取得了成功。其实我们和所有的成功一样，只不过准备了很长时间。后来，从276家发展到后来接近2000家（1928家）的过程中，沃尔玛又大致经受了三次市场衰退的考验，沃尔玛的门店数量增长接近7倍，并且只用了12年。

说起经济衰退，沃尔顿先生在1991年时说过这样一段话：“有人问我对于经济衰退的看法。我想了想，决定不要参与其中”。从1991年到1994年，美国经历了严重的经济衰退，几乎同一时期，沃尔玛逆市而上，大力投资于科技与供应链建设，市值获得了近三倍增长。

上面说到的就是第一个体会：下行和放缓的市场，同样有巨大的机会。

二、巨大的机会，恰恰来自于市场的巨幅变化

接下来，我想分享的第二个感想是：这种巨大的机会，恰恰来自于市场的巨幅变化。在经济下行周期，消费者行为改变、心理改变，正是这样的大幅动荡与改变，产生了创新的空间，创造了企业弯道超车加速发展的机会。

沃尔玛起家时，也是面临着一个大的变化。当时许多在小镇成长起来的美国人，在从二战战场回来后，涌向了工作机会更多的城市，小镇的商业开始衰落。但小镇顾客和他们那些搬到大城市去的朋友一样，也想买到好的商品，希望得到好的价格。这种需求被当时的零售主流忽视了，因为当时的零售行业有一个思维定势，认为人口小于五万的镇子是不足以支撑一家大型一站式零售业态的。

但沃尔顿先生嗅到了机会，他于1962年创立了第一家沃尔玛，也第一次打出了“天天低价”的广告语。为什么是“天天低价”呢？沃尔顿先生给出的答案很简单，就是帮顾客，也就是小镇居民省钱。帮顾客省钱并不是让他们购买更低廉和劣质的商品，而是能够有机会享受和富人一样的商品和服务，也就是同样的品质，更低的价格，而这后来也成为了沃尔玛的使命——省钱、省心、好生活（Save money，live better）。

“天天低价”对于沃尔玛来说，并非只是促销的一句口号，而是对消费者的价值承诺。当顾客想到沃尔玛时，他们能够非常确定，自己再不可能在别的任何地方找到更低的价格，而且他们不喜欢的话可以拿回来退换。

回到当下的中国市场。经过现代商业这三十年的发展，中国零售市场规模已经成为世界第一。中国是当之无愧的零售大市场，但还不算是强市场。无论是在商品力、品类管理、自有品牌力，还是在层层流通环节上的损耗，都存在大量潜力空间。在渠道方面，中国的数字化、电商等领域全球领先，但真正的线下、线上融合，一体化全渠道方面，目前尚未产生真正成熟的模式。
上面所提到的这些，都蕴含着巨大的机会。

三、成功的根源往往来自于内部而不是外部因素

但是，当我们回顾现代企业发展史，我们会看到，实现跨越周期的持续发展，成功的根源往往来自于内部而不是外部因素。这也是我想分享的第三个思考。在这个时候，我们更需要专注于企业内功的建设，也就是人才、组织、企业文化与价值观。

商业模式各有选择，企业文化和价值观、组织架构也各有选择。但关键是企业文化和价值观、人才组织等要素，一定要与商业定位、商业模式全面深度匹配，并且坚定地、不折不扣地执行，带动团队的思维、工作模式、绩效考核、组织文化的更新迭代，并且确保这是一个有机的、整体性的变化。这其中，内功的打造，最主要的因素是企业管理者和团队的自律，也就是中国人常说的心性。

四、分享一个“每天前进20英里”的故事

在这里，我想分享一个“每天前进20英里”的故事。从美国西海岸的圣地亚哥到美国东北部边境缅因州，这基本上是美国大陆上的最长距离，大约为3000英里。这段路程的地貌十分复杂，而且经常会遭遇天气变化。那么如果徒步走完这段路程，最佳方案是什么？

美国商业作家吉姆·柯林斯（Jim Collins）在一个春天组织了三批人进行了这个试验，实验要求到达终点就是胜利。

第一组选择在好天气时快速行进，一天徒步40至50英里，坏天气不行进。第二组队员信心满满，出发就很有激情，每天行进50至60英里，看似三个月就能到达终点。第三组选择每天行进20英里，天气恶劣时，他们要走20英里，天气晴朗，他们也只行进20英里。

五个月后，第三组出人意料的先到达了终点。原因很简单，第一组容易被好天气诱惑，被坏天气干扰，无法坚定地执行计划。第二组很有信心，但急于求成，后来渐渐松懈下来，便失去了斗志。而第三种旅客不论天气好坏、路途泥泞，内心总是能保持良好的自律，他们有明确的规划和严格的执行，不被干扰和诱惑，每天坚持二十英里，最终走完全程抵达目的地。

吉姆·柯林斯最终得出结论：执行一项任务，有明确规划，严格执行，保持自律不被诱惑，就会成功。 

二十英里法则就是自律法则：始终恪守上限和下限，无论顺境、逆境始终保持一个节奏。困难时期咬牙坚持每天前进20英里，不会因为天气恶劣而蜷缩不前，也就是要把基础的事做到、做好。顺风期也不得意忘形，不会因为风和日丽而走过多的里程，也就是不追求过度的、透支的数据增长。

保持这样的节奏，让我们有确定的聚焦点，这对动荡市场周期的企业增长和管理尤为重要，因为只有接受不确定性是市场常态，变化是恒常，在不确定性中建立确定，才会为团队创造安全感。归根结底，确定性和安全感是自己给的，也只有自己才能给。

翻译：

At last year’s annual meeting in Shanghai, the theme I shared was that as we enter a new retail development cycle, from incremental market to stock market, the core winning ability of retail enterprises is also shifting from scale expansion ability to customer acquisition and retention ability. Enterprises need to adhere to long-termism and do the hard but right thing. At that time, this view was coincidentally in line with Chairman Pei’s idea of shifting from extensional expansion to concursive development.

In July, CCFA held the China International Retail Innovation Conference in Shenzhen. At that time, I shared the theme of: In the midst of uncertainty, what we should do is to return to the essence of retail, which is to improve the commodity power, improve the overall efficiency of the supply chain, and continuously create value for customers and members. We believe that the so-called “difficult and correct road”, the reason why this road is difficult is not to think, but to do, and continue to do it every year, every month, every day, every hour, is “Qiantao million Lu is hard, blowing the crazy sand to gold”. The two verses, which were quoted at the time, collided with Bae s remarks. It also shows that everyone is sympathetic to the key thinking of the industry.

I’ve been trying to figure out what to say today for two days. There is no need to discuss the challenges of the consumer market, the pressure of the economic cycle fluctuations and so on. In his book Bedtime Stories for Managers, the management scientist Henry Mintzberg has an interesting passage about “changing times” : “When a CEO sits down at his laptop to prepare a speech, the computer automatically types these words: We live in a time of great change, and it is so because almost every speech in the past 50 years has started with this line. That’s never changed.” So change is the only constant. Today, market uncertainty has become the consensus. It has become certainty.

Today is that no matter how difficult the market is, there is room and opportunity for growth.

The first thing I want to share with you today is that no matter how difficult the market is, there is room and opportunity for growth.

“Cyclical fluctuation”, like the four seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter, is an inescapable law of the market economy. The cold winter is indeed a challenge, in the economic downturn cycle, some enterprises and even the leading enterprises will weaken and lose, or even escape out. The first instinct of many companies is to make sure they survive the winter, which is certainly important.

But Chinese tradition holds that during the winter solstice, the sun rises and all things come into being. Winter has the foundation for everything, often a new beginning. In business, there is a lot of historical evidence that great companies thrive during market downturns, and that it takes several economic cycles to truly establish their place in history and validate the principles on which they were founded. One company that has been tested over and over again is Wal-Mart. Wal-mart, as you may know, started in small town America. But it’s easy to overlook the background: Walmart has survived at least eight major recessions in the United States, where it grew from a small store.

There are two key comparisons to share with you.

One is average industry growth.

One is average industry growth. During much of the 1970s and 1980s, when the U.S. retail industry averaged 2% growth due to the recession, Wal-Mart bucked the trend with 38% growth. In 1990, Wal-Mart continued this trend and became the largest retailer in the United States.

Another set of data is the number of new stores.

Another set of data is the number of new stores. It took Wal-Mart 18 years to steadily increase the number of stores to 276. Sam Walton, the founder of Wal-Mart, once recalled that people always thought of Wal-Mart as something that was dreamed up and became an overnight success. In fact, we are like all success, just prepare for a long time. Later, in the process of growing from 276 stores to nearly 2,000 stores (1,928), Walmart roughly withstood the test of three market recessions. The number of Walmart stores increased nearly 7 times, and it only took 12 years.

Speaking of the recession, Mr Walton said in 1991: “I was asked what I thought about it. I thought about it and decided not to get involved.” Wal-mart bucked a deep recession in the United States from 1991 to 1994, investing heavily in technology and its supply chain at roughly the same time that its market value nearly tripled.
That’s the first lesson: there are great opportunities in declining and slowing markets.

This huge opportunity comes precisely from huge changes in the market.

The second thought I’d like to share is this: this huge opportunity comes precisely from huge changes in the market. In the economic downturn cycle, consumer behavior change, psychological change, it is such a large turbulence and change, create the space for innovation, create the opportunity for enterprises to overtake the curve to accelerate development.

Wal-mart also faced a big change when it started. Small-town businesses began to decline when many Americans who had grown up in small towns returned from World War II to cities where jobs were more plentiful. But small-town customers, like their friends who have moved to big cities, want good goods and good prices. This demand was ignored by the retail mainstream, which had a mindset that a town of less than 50,000 people could not support a large one-stop shop.

But Mr Walton, who founded the first Walmart in 1962, was the first to advertise “Everyday low prices”. Why “everyday low prices”? Mr Walton’s answer is simple: save money for the customers, the townspeople. To help customers Save money is not to let them buy cheaper and inferior goods, but to have the opportunity to enjoy the same goods and services as the rich, that is, the same quality, lower prices, and this later became the mission of Walmart — Save money, live better.

For Walmart, “Everyday low price” is not just a slogan of promotion, but a promise of value to consumers. When customers think of Walmart, they can be pretty sure that they won’t find a lower price anywhere else and that they can return it if they don’t like it.

Back to the current Chinese market. After 30 years of development of modern commerce, China’s retail market has become the largest in the world. China is arguably a big retail market, but not a strong one. Whether it is in commodity power, category management, private brand power, or in the layer of circulation link loss, there is a lot of potential space. In terms of channels, China’s digitalization, e-commerce and other fields lead the world, but the real offline, online integration, integration of omni-channel, has not yet produced a truly mature model.

All of the above are huge opportunities.

The root of success in achieving continuous growth across the cycle often comes from internal rather than external factors.

But when we look at the history of the modern enterprise, we see that the root of success in achieving continuous growth across the cycle often comes from internal rather than external factors. This is the third thought I want to share. At this time, we need to focus more on the construction of enterprise internal capabilities, that is, talent, organization, corporate culture and values.

There is a choice of business model, a choice of corporate culture and values, and a choice of organizational structure. But the key is corporate culture and values, talent organization and other elements, must be fully and deeply matched with business positioning and business model, and firmly and faithfully implemented, drive the team’s thinking, working mode, performance assessment, organizational culture update and iteration, and ensure that this is an organic and holistic change. Among them, the most important factor to build internal performance is the self-discipline of enterprise managers and teams, which is also known as the heart of the Chinese people.

I’d like to share a “20 miles a day” story.

From San Diego on the West Coast of the United States to Maine on the northeastern border of the United States, this is essentially the longest distance in the continental United States, at about 3,000 miles. The terrain is complex and often subject to weather changes. So what’s the best way to cover the distance on foot?
Jim Collins, an American business writer, conducted the experiment with three groups of people one spring, with the requirement that reaching the finish line was victory.

The first group chose to go fast in good weather, hiking 40 to 50 miles a day, but not in bad weather. The second group was full of confidence and started out with enthusiasm, covering 50 to 60 miles a day and seemingly reaching the finish line in three months. The third group chose to walk 20 miles a day, 20 miles in bad weather and 20 miles in fine weather.

Five months later, a third group unexpectedly reached the finish line first. The reason is simple. The first group is easily tempted by good weather, disturbed by bad weather and unable to carry out the plan firmly. The second group was confident, but eager to succeed, then gradually slackened and lost morale. And the third kind of travelers, regardless of the weather or the muddy road, always maintain good inner self-discipline, they have a clear plan and strict execution, not be disturbed and temptation, insist on 20 miles a day, and finally walk the whole journey to the destination.

Jim Collins came to the conclusion that if you carry out a task, plan it out, execute it rigorously, and have the discipline not to be tempted, you will succeed.

The twenty mile Rule is the law of self-discipline: always adhere to the upper and lower limits, and always maintain a rhythm in good times and bad. Grit your teeth when times get tough and stick to 20 miles a day instead of hunkering down because of the weather. It’s about getting the basics done. We will not get carried away during the downwind period, and we will not go through many miles because of the favorable weather, that is, we will not pursue excessive and overdrawn data growth.
Maintaining this rhythm allows us to have a certain focus, which is particularly important for the growth and management of enterprises in turbulent market cycles, because only by accepting that uncertainty is normal in the market, change is constant, and establishing certainty in uncertainty, can we create a sense of security for the team. In the final analysis, certainty and security is what you give, and only you can give.

本文由CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）转载而成，来源于网络；编辑/翻译：CXO UNIONCXO联盟小C。

如需加入CXO UNION（CXO联盟）高管社群，请联系社群小伙伴哦~

免责声明: 本网站(http://www.cxounion.cn/)内容主要来自原创、合作媒体供稿和第三方投稿，凡在本网站出现的信息，均仅供参考。本网站将尽力确保所提供信息的准确性及可靠性，但不保证有关资料的准确性及可靠性，读者在使用前请进一步核实，并对任何自主决定的行为负责。本网站对有关资料所引致的错误、不确或遗漏，概不负任何法律责任。

本网站刊载的所有内容(包括但不仅限文字、图片、LOGO、音频、视频、软件、程序等) 版权归原作者所有。任何单位或个人认为本网站中的内容可能涉嫌侵犯其知识产权或存在不实内容时，请及时通知本站，予以删除。