【观点】中国人民银行副行长宣昌能：如何加强国际对话协调，提升全球经济金融韧性？

近日，中国人民银行副行长宣昌能出席了金融街论坛年会并发表演讲。

宣昌能表示，中国经济持续恢复向好，工业生产恢复加快、服务业成为带动经济回升的强大动力、新动能快速成长、国际收支稳健性提升。他指出，当前，全球面临的不确定性和挑战多，地缘冲突加剧，贸易保护主义普遍抬头，高通胀、高利率、高债务的特征突出。他表示，面对复杂严峻的国际形势，央行将继续积极参与国际经济金融治理，与各国特别是主要经济体国家保持并强化宏观经济金融政策对话与协调，支持建设开放型世界经济，并真诚希望各国间加强对话，深化合作。

加强国际宏观政策对话协调提升全球经济金融韧性

——宣昌能副行长2023金融街论坛年会中国人民银行主场论坛演讲

当前，世界经济处于深刻调整期，增长缓慢且不均衡，流动性持续收紧、地缘政治冲突的影响值得密切关注。近期召开的中央金融工作会议明确指出，“要着力推进金融高水平开放，确保国家金融和经济安全。坚持‘引进来’和‘走出去’并重，稳步扩大金融领域制度型开放，提升跨境投融资便利化，吸引更多外资金融机构和长期资本来华展业兴业。”加强国际宏观经济金融政策对话，有助于促进政策协调，共同培育发展新动能，提升全球经济金融韧性，实现可持续发展与合作共赢。

下面我讲三方面的内容：

一、中国经济持续恢复向好

今年以来，随着宏观调控组合政策发力见效，中国主要经济指标企稳回升态势明显，经济运行中积极因素在积累，亮点在增多，预期在好转。前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%，其中三季度增长4.9%，环比增长1.3%，加快0.8个百分点，延续了恢复向好的态势，工业生产恢复加快，前三季度全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4%，比上半年加快0.2个百分点，其中三季度规模以上工业企业利润同比增长7.7%。服务业成为带动经济回升的强大动力，服务需求持续释放，市场活力稳步提升，三季度服务业增加值同比增长5.2%，拉动经济增长2.8个百分点，对经济增长贡献率达56.7%。新动能快速成长，战略性新兴产业不断发展壮大，数字经济、光伏、新能源汽车等领域跻身世界领先水平。前三季度，高技术产业投资同比增长11.4%，太阳能电池、充电桩、新能源汽车产量分别增长63.2%，34.2%，26.7%。国际收支稳健性提升，经常账户顺差规模合理，跨境贸易和投融资更加活跃。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

预计今年中国经济有望实现5%左右的增长，增速在主要经济体中仍然名列前茅，继续成为世界经济增长的重要引擎和稳定力量。国际货币基金组织近期把中国经济的增长预期调高到5.4%。

二、国际形势复杂严峻

当前，全球面临的不确定性和挑战多，地缘冲突加剧，贸易保护主义普遍抬头，高通胀、高利率、高债务的特征突出。

展望未来，从增长看，世界经济复苏乏力，地缘政治博弈，全球流动性收紧的累积效应，以及潜在金融风险，极端天气事件等都是影响未来世界经济增长的重要因素。

国际货币基金组织10月份发布的《世界经济展望》显示，全球经济增速预计将从去年的3.5%，放缓至今年的3%和明年的2.9%。主要发达经济体紧缩性货币政策对通胀起到抑制作用，整体通胀回落，但也对其投资和消费带来负面影响。新兴经济体增长分化，全球流动性收紧，增加了高债务经济体经济增长的不确定性。

从金融风险演变趋势看，随着各国通胀压力缓解、经济衰退风险上升，主要央行将适时结束加息，紧缩性货币政策对各国货币汇率、股市和跨境资本流动的边际影响或将减弱，但其累积效应也将逐步显现，一些经济体和部分领域的风险依然值得高度关注。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

从地缘政治风险看，俄乌冲突、巴以冲突仍在持续，全球地缘政治风险处于高位，继续影响国际贸易环境的稳定和产业链供应链的安全，也对大宗商品价格形成冲击，增加国际宏观政策协调难度。

从绿色复苏进展看，新冠疫情暴发以来各国用于绿色复苏的支出未达前期承诺水平，全球绿色支出不足以应对持续发生的环境危机，包括气候变化、自然破坏和污染等。

三、加强国际宏观政策对话与协调

经济全球化是大势所趋、人心所向，开放合作、互利共赢是明智选择。党的十八大以来，中国人民银行坚决贯彻落实习近平主席倡导的全球治理观，通过二十国集团、国际货币基金组织、国际清算银行、多边开发银行等全球治理平台、机制，积极参与全球金融治理和政策协调，贡献中国智慧、展现大国担当、维护国家利益。

当前，世界进入新的动荡变革期，全球治理体系处于调整变革的关键时期。中国人民银行将继续积极参与国际经济金融治理，与各国特别是主要经济体国家保持并强化宏观经济金融政策对话与协调，支持建设开放型世界经济。半个月前，中美金融工作组举行了第一次会议，双方就两国货币政策、金融稳定、金融监管等议题以及其他双方重点关切的问题进行了专业、务实、坦诚和建设性的沟通。双方同意继续保持沟通。面对复杂严峻的国际形势，我们真诚希望各国间加强对话，深化合作。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

第一，切实加强国际宏观经济政策对话与协调，尤其在世界经济增长、风险防范、数字经济、绿色发展、气候变化等重要领域，共同促进全球经济增长，维护金融稳定。

第二，坚定推进全球金融治理改革，构建公正高效的全球金融治理格局。国际货币基金组织应继续推动份额改革，实现份额占比调整，更好反映成员国在全球经济中的相对地位，提高新兴市场和发展中国家的话语权和代表性。

第三，维护多边贸易体系的权威性和有效性。推进双边、区域和多边合作，坚决反对人为将经贸问题政治化，共同维护全球产业链、供应链稳定畅通，维护多元稳定的国际经贸格局，推动经济全球化朝着更加开放、包容、普惠、平衡、共赢的方向发展。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

第四，加强绿色金融领域的交流合作。当前，中国正致力于实现碳达峰、碳中和目标。中国人民银行将坚持绿色、开放的理念，持续发挥绿色金融的资源配置、风险管理、市场定价功能，着力构建完善的金融支持绿色低碳发展体系。我们愿与各国分享中国经验，加强绿色金融标准、环境信息披露等方面的交流合作；与相关国家一起积极完善转型金融政策框架，丰富完善转型金融产品，支持高排放行业和企业有序向绿色低碳转型。

最后，感谢各界对金融工作的关心和对中国人民银行工作的支持！预祝2023年金融街论坛取得圆满成功！

翻译：

Xuan Changneng, Deputy Governor of the People’s Bank of China: How to strengthen international dialogue and coordination to enhance the resilience of the global economy and finance?

Recently, Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng of the People’s Bank of China attended the annual meeting of the Financial Street Forum and delivered a speech. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Xuan Changneng said that China’s economy continues to recover, industrial production recovery has accelerated, the service sector has become a strong driving force for economic recovery, new drivers are growing rapidly, and the balance of payments is becoming more robust. He pointed out that at present, the world is facing many uncertainties and challenges, geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, trade protectionism is generally rising, and high inflation, high interest rates and high debt are prominent features. He said that in the face of the complex and severe international situation, the central bank will continue to actively participate in international economic and financial governance, maintain and strengthen macroeconomic and financial policy dialogue and coordination with other countries, especially major economies, support the construction of an open world economy, and sincerely hope that countries can strengthen dialogue and deepen cooperation.

Strengthen international macro policy dialogue and coordination to enhance global economic and financial resilience

— Vice Governor Xuan Changneng delivered a speech at the Home Forum of the People’s Bank of China at the 2023 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting

At present, the world economy is in a period of profound adjustment, with slow and uneven growth, continuous tightening of liquidity, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts deserve close attention. The recently held Central Financial Work Conference clearly pointed out that “we must strive to promote a high level of financial opening-up and ensure national financial and economic security.” We will continue to place equal emphasis on ‘bringing in’ and ‘going global’, steadily expand institutional opening in the financial sector, improve cross-border investment and financing facilitation, and attract more foreign financial institutions and long-term capital to China.” Strengthening international macroeconomic and financial policy dialogue will help promote policy coordination, jointly foster new growth drivers, enhance global economic and financial resilience, and achieve sustainable development and win-win cooperation. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Here are three things I would like to discuss:

First, the Chinese economy continues to recover

Since the beginning of this year, as the combination of macro-control policies has taken effect, China’s major economic indicators have stabilized and rebounded, positive factors in economic operation are accumulating, bright spots are increasing, and expectations are improving. In the first three quarters of this year, GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, of which 4.9% grew by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, an increase of 0.8 percentage points, continuing the momentum of recovery and accelerating the recovery of industrial production. In the first three quarters of this year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points higher than that in the first half of this year. In the third quarter, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.7% year-on-year. The service sector has become a powerful driving force for economic recovery, with continuous release of service demand and steady improvement of market vitality. In the third quarter, the added value of the service sector increased by 5.2% year-on-year, driving 2.8 percentage points of economic growth and contributing 56.7% to economic growth. New growth drivers are growing fast, strategic emerging industries are growing stronger, and the digital economy, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles are among the world’s leading sectors. In the first three quarters, investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.4% year-on-year, and the output of solar cells, charging piles and new energy vehicles increased by 63.2%, 34.2% and 26.7% respectively. The balance of payments has become more robust, the current account surplus is reasonable, and cross-border trade, investment and financing have become more active. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

This year, the Chinese economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of around 5%, which is still one of the fastest among major economies, and will continue to be an important engine and stabilizing force for world economic growth. The International Monetary Fund recently raised its growth forecast for the Chinese economy to 5.4%.

Second, the international situation is complex and grave

At present, the world faces many uncertainties and challenges, geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, trade protectionism is on the rise, and high inflation, high interest rates and high debt are prominent features. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Looking ahead, from the perspective of growth, the weak recovery of the world economy, the cumulative effect of geopolitical games, the tightening of global liquidity, as well as potential financial risks and extreme weather events are all important factors affecting the future growth of the world economy.

According to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook published in October, global growth is expected to slow from 3.5 per cent last year to 3 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent next year. The tightening of monetary policies in major developed economies has suppressed inflation, and overall inflation has fallen, but it has also had a negative impact on their investment and consumption. Divergent growth in emerging economies and tighter global liquidity have increased uncertainty about economic growth in high-debt economies.

From the perspective of the evolution trend of financial risks, with the easing of inflationary pressure in various countries and the rising risk of economic recession, major central banks will timely end the interest rate hike, and the marginal impact of tightening monetary policies on currency exchange rates, stock markets and cross-border capital flows may be weakened, but its cumulative effect will gradually emerge, and the risks in some economies and some areas still deserve great attention.

From the perspective of geopolitical risks, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the conflict between Palestine and Israel are still ongoing, and global geopolitical risks are at a high level, which will continue to affect the stability of the international trade environment and the security of the industrial chain and supply chain, and also have an impact on commodity prices, increasing the difficulty of international macro policy coordination. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

From the perspective of the progress of green recovery, the spending on green recovery since the outbreak of COVID-19 has not reached the level of previous commitments, and global green spending is insufficient to deal with ongoing environmental crises, including climate change, natural damage and pollution.

Third, strengthen international macro policy dialogue and coordination

Economic globalization is the trend of The Times and the aspiration of the people. Openness and cooperation for mutual benefit are wise choices.

At present, the world has entered a new period of turbulence and change, and the global governance system is at a critical stage of adjustment and reform. The People’s Bank of China will continue to actively participate in international economic and financial governance, maintain and strengthen macroeconomic and financial policy dialogue and coordination with other countries, especially major economies, and support the building of an open world economy. Two weeks ago, the China-Us Financial Working Group held its first meeting, during which the two sides had professional, pragmatic, candid and constructive communication on monetary policy, financial stability, financial regulation and other issues of major concern to both sides. Both sides agreed to continue to maintain communication. In the face of the complex and grim international situation, we sincerely hope that countries will strengthen dialogue and deepen cooperation. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

First, strengthen international macroeconomic policy dialogue and coordination, especially in such important areas as world economic growth, risk prevention, digital economy, green development and climate change, so as to jointly promote global economic growth and safeguard financial stability.

Second, firmly advance the reform of global financial governance and build a just and efficient global financial governance pattern. The IMF should continue to promote quota reform, realize quota adjustment, better reflect the relative position of member countries in the global economy, and increase the voice and representation of emerging markets and developing countries.

Third, we need to uphold the authority and effectiveness of the multilateral trading system. We should advance bilateral, regional and multilateral cooperation, firmly oppose the politicization of economic and trade issues. We should work together to maintain the stability and unimpeded flow of global industrial and supply chains, maintain a diversified and stable international economic and trade landscape, and make economic globalization more open, inclusive, balanced and beneficial to all.

Fourth, strengthen exchanges and cooperation in green finance. At present, China is committed to achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The People’s Bank of China will adhere to the concept of green and open, continue to give full play to the resource allocation, risk management and market pricing functions of green finance, and strive to build a sound financial support system for green and low-carbon development. We are ready to share China’s experience with other countries and strengthen exchanges and cooperation on green finance standards and environmental information disclosure. We will work with relevant countries to actively improve the financial policy framework for transition, enrich and improve financial products for transition, and support high-emission industries and enterprises in an orderly transition to green and low-carbon development. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Finally, I would like to thank all sectors for their interest in financial work and support for the work of the People’s Bank of China! I wish the 2023 Financial Street Forum a complete success!

由CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）转载而成，来源于中国财富管理50人论坛；编辑/翻译：CXO UNIONCXO联盟小U。

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