【观点】黄益平：数字经济与高质量经济发展

题记：

2023年6月12日晚，北大国发院DPS博士论坛第42期举行。本文根据50人论坛委员、北大国发院副院长、数字金融研究中心主任黄益平的主旨演讲整理。

今天与大家分享数字经济和经济高质量发展，主要分为两部分，第一部分探讨什么是数字经济，为什么数字经济能给经济生活带来巨变，同时又带来哪些问题；第二部分探讨数字经济和高质量发展的关系。

一、中国的数字经济概览

数字经济已成为日常生活中极为常见的概念。1994年我国接入了互联网，之后一批互联网公司雨后春笋般出现，今天的知名公司中有很多都是在当时成立的。在数字经济领域做得比较好的中国企业也大多创立并成长于过去二、三十年间。

我国的数字经济起步较早，与美国大互联网公司相比不算太晚，这很难得。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

中国数字经济还有一个有意思的现象，即早年间成立的企业很快就发展成中国甚至世界的头部企业。一般而言，通过一些量化指标，可以对数字经济的发展有基本判断。这些指标主要包括：数字经济规模有多大？市场渗透率有多高？从业人数有多少？独角兽公司有几家？

所谓独角兽公司，一般指创立不到十年，市值已经超过10亿美金但仍未上市的公司。为什么要统计独角兽公司？因为它们最能说明一国在创新领域的潜力。独角兽公司的数量多，意味着该国的创新非常活跃。倘若没有独角兽公司，即使头部大公司再多，该国在创新领域也不一定是领先的。

从以上几个指标看，全世界数字经济发展最好的就是美国和中国。中国作为一个发展中国家，数字经济发展稳居世界第二，非常了不起。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

在研究中国数字经济时经常听到 “大而不强”一词，意思是数字经济做得很大，但一些关键领域内的技术原创不多，技术水平不够领先。这一判断非常准确，的确是我国数字经济发展中存在的一个问题。目前我国的人均GDP仅为13000美元左右，相比1978年人均150美元的水平已经飞越，但距离发达国家5-6万美元的人均GDP仍有巨大落差。因此，我国数字经济的发展存在一些问题也可以理解，与我国目前的经济发展水平基本吻合。

二、中国的数字经济为何能快速发展

中国作为一个发展中国家，数字经济能在短时间内做到全球第二，主要是赶上了第四次工业革命技术创新的潮流。数字经济用到的一些技术，比如区块链、云计算、大数据、人工智能等，都是第四次工业革命中产生的新技术，运用到数字经济当中则变成数字经济的不同形态。

在我看来，这一点特别令人振奋。数字经济的繁荣发展意味着我国一直在紧追第四次工业革命的前沿，不断前进。有些技术或许并非原创，但新技术一出现就能为我所用。有一些国内公司做出的应用软件完全不比国外的差，甚至更好。还有一些公司的产品在海外也大受欢迎。

前三次工业革命兴起时，我国距离世界科技前沿非常遥远，相关技术传到中国时，科技革命的浪潮已经过去很久。这一次实现了历史的转变，从远离前沿变成了紧紧追赶。

究其原因，我认为关键是两条：有效市场和有为政府。

先说有为政府。有为政府发挥了重要作用，因为一个好的经济在启动时需要很多基本条件。比如市场化改革，这也是政府在这四十几年时间里做的最重要的工作，最后得以形成市场机制。再比如很多基础设施的投资，适度超前的数字基础设施建设。还有很重要的一条，教育发展。过去几十年，中国培养了1亿多理工科人才，都能在技术方面推动数字经济的发展。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

再说有效市场。数字经济能在中国做大并相对领先，主要是市场化改革的结果。今天这些知名的、在国内外有影响力的数字经济企业，无一例外都是民营企业。这些企业最初都是一个或几个年轻人有了创新的想法，然后想办法落地。

想法能落地，说明想法好，管理者能力强，更重要的是说明我国的市场机制在发挥作用。虽然经济学者对市场机制有很多批评，但一家民营企业在5-10年内就能发展成在全国甚至全世界都有影响力的企业，这说明我国市场配置资源、支持创新是有效果的。事实上，美国有成功的“美国梦”的样板，中国也有成功的“中国梦”的样板。数字经济真正发展起来，市场发挥了最重要的作用，这对将来的创新也是意义重大。

三、数字经济的概念

数字经济有两个重要要素，一是数据资源，二是现代网络。

数字经济就是将数字技术工具应用到经济活动中，使效率与公平能得到更好统一的一种新经济形态。经济学的终极问题就是效率与公平，一方面要提高效率，另一方面还要讲究公平。世界上很多经济政策来回摇摆，一般都与效率和公平的权衡有关。也许数字经济能相对较好地兼顾公平和效率，但必须强调这是“相对”而言，不是“绝对”的。事实上，当前平台经济运行中出现的很多问题，很可能就是没能做到公平和效率的有效统一。

一般而言，数字经济有两大类别： CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

第一是数字产业化，一些新型的、与数据和技术有关的业务变成了新产业。例如，大数据的收集、积累、清洗、分析、交易和共享，存储器和云计算的设备制造业，数字经济对数据的需求让这些新形态成为新产业。

第二是产业数字化，数字技术让原有产业效率更高，风险更可控，规模经济的效应更加突出。这是日常生活当中更常见的数字形态，比如数字农业、数字制造、数字中国等。疫情期间的数字教育，老师们都对着屏幕讲课，这也是传统产业搭载数字技术后的新业态。

大家每天都会用到一些由平台企业开发的APP，比如网购、看短视频、社交、打车等。这些平台企业就是产业数字化的一个重要表现和形态。购物、打车早就存在于日常生活中，大家都去过农贸市场，都曾站在路边叫出租车；平台企业将这些原本就存在的功能搬到线上，使范围规模变得更大。出租车的约车系统过去也有，比如电话预约出租车，但现在通过APP，约车效率更高，匹配更广，速度更快，体验更好。数字技术提升了很多传统业务的效率和服务质量。有专家认为，大学教育也是一个平台，比如讲座直播有很多人在线观看。教育搭载数字技术，触及范围变得更广。移动支付也是一个鲜活的例子，微信支付和支付宝各自拥有约十亿左右的活跃用户，这对于传统金融机构而言很难做到，所以主要还是得益于数字技术发挥作用。

简言之，数字经济就是数字技术应用到经济当中，形成一些新的经济形态，或是令传统的经济形态发生一些改善。

适当区分这两个部分很重要。现在常说数字经济占到我国GDP总量的40%还多，美国是65%，德国可能更高一些。然而，这样的算法似乎吞掉了制造业原先的占比，所以这种算法也有待商榷。

不可否认的是，数字产业化确实给经济带来了新气象，在一定程度上为产业数字化提供了基础设施和解决方案。因此，应该主动拥抱数字技术。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

四、数字经济的效用

把数字技术应用到经济活动中，能带来很多改变。我将其简单总结为“三升三降”：“三升”主要是规模扩大，效率提高，用户体验改善；“三降”就是降成本，控风险，减少直接接触。

由此不难看出，数字经济和传统经济有相似之处，但确实也存在很多新特征和新表现。

“三升”很好理解。在过去，一家百货公司每天只能接待数量有限的消费者，网购则不然，不管多少消费者，几乎都能应付。根据数据，十年前的移动支付每秒大概能处理300笔业务，现在这一数字已经达到百万量级，一方面提高了效率，另一方面改善了用户体验。倘若今天的移动支付每秒钟只能处理300笔业务，很难想象这是一种怎样的体验。

“三降”也比较容易理解。只要控制住效率，提高规模，成本自然降低，使用大数据分析还能控制风险。数字金融中一个非常重要的创新叫“数字信用”。在过去，银行的普惠金融比较难做，因为如何认定客户的资质是银行普遍头痛的问题。一般而言，银行贷款主要看财务和抵押资产。有很多客户没有上述“信用”，银行不确定该不该贷款。对银行而言，做好风控很重要，贷款放出去能否收得回来是个大问题。如今在大数据的帮助下，风控已经变得很容易。只要贷款人在网上留下数字足迹，比如网上社交、网购、网约车等，通过这些数字足迹做风控已经可行，不但可以放贷，不良率控制也优于传统银行。由此可见，大数据风控有效。

2020年，国际货币基金组织和北大数字金融研究中心开会讨论中国的大科技信贷，简单理解为线上发放贷款。按照过去的经验，无论在美国还是其他国家，只要发生地震、洪水、龙卷风之类的自然灾害，金融机构马上关门，大家无法办理业务，给很多人带来不便。然而国际货币基金组织发现，疫情期间中国的数字金融机构，无论是经历封城还是隔离，都能持续为消费者提供服务。他们认为这非常了不起。年轻人对这一情况可能习以为常，但上了年纪有过相关经历的人知道，因天气原因无法去银行取钱很麻烦。因此，金融方面的无接触交易不仅提高了效率，也令过去的很多不可能变为可能。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

传统金融服务很难触达农村经济主体，只能把分支行开遍全国，再派很多信贷员走访贷款对象。这种做法成本很高，加剧了普惠金融的难度。现在只需有一部智能手机和网络信号，在中国任何地方都能获得同样的金融服务，贷款、支付、买保险甚至是投资都能轻松实现。

五、数字经济的特点

第一，数字技术具有长尾效应，可以把原本规模很小、很分散或鲜有人愿意做的产品集中起来，变成非常庞大的商业。余额宝就是长尾效应的一个经典。刚起步时，余额宝本想找国内头部投资基金合作，但没有头部投资基金感兴趣，只得找了当时规模中等的天弘基金。余额宝里大多都是50块或500块的小额投资，但上亿人的小额投资聚拢在一起就很可观。由此，天弘只用一年就发展成全国最大的投资基金。在很多经济活动中，长尾效应能促成普惠业务，关键就是通过长尾效应能把对于传统机构而言得不偿失的业务聚拢在一起，变成大业务，同时也改变了原有业态。

第二，数字经济是规模经济。规模经济的特点是规模越大，效率越高，这一点和传统的经济理论有所不同。传统经济学理论认为经济发展存在“最优规模”，即发展到一定水平后再增加规模，报酬会递减。然而，国内的大平台机构拥有上亿甚至十亿用户，国外有的平台企业甚至拥有几十亿用户。这些企业规模越大，效率越高，服务越好，这在过去的经济生活中鲜有。

第三，数字经济是范围经济。范围经济就是横向的规模经济，意思是一个平台建立起来后，跨界竞争变得相对容易。一个电商平台成立后，积累了一定的客户和数据资源，就能具备开展其他领域业务的条件，比如打车、外卖、旅行等。只要有了数据和客户，跨界不难。对平台企业而言，业务一旦跨界，平均成本也会下降。对企业而言，业务跨界要比成立多个不同业务类型的平台更划算。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

第四，数字经济具有双边市场的特征。双边市场的意思是一边市场做大，对另一边市场的价值也有益。如果一家电商拥有很多消费者，愿意在这家平台上开店的小老板就会很多；同样道理，如果一家电商平台上的产品非常丰富，消费者也会越来越多。这就是双边市场。双边市场有时会导致一些特殊行为，美国的专家对此有专门研究。有些平台免费为用户提供服务，甚至发放补贴。看起来平台已经补贴了消费者，似乎不应该判定其有垄断行为，最起码平台的做法没有损害消费者利益。但美国专家的研究认为，这个问题需要两边放在一起看，不能单边看。平台通过补贴消费者而做大市场规模，在形成一定的市场势力后，可以实施不公平竞争，对消费者而言仍然不利。

对于上述问题，需要完整的比较和分析。一方面，平台贡献了市场份额和数据，这一点不能忽视。另一方面，这些份额和数据又恰好可以帮助平台赚更多的钱，单是广告费就是一笔不小的收入。或许平台认为，自己也是真金白银付出过，但消费者也可能觉得，平台的免费服务不是真免费，暗藏玄机。不过，不同的平台情况不同，需要个案分析，不宜轻易下结论。

六、为什么数字经济与高质量发展密切相关

2021年，我国实现了第一个百年奋斗目标——全面建成小康社会。到2049年，还要实现第二个百年奋斗目标——全面建成社会主义现代化强国。社会主义现代化强国的含义很丰富，其中首要问题就是经济的高质量发展。

如何理解高质量发展？从经济学角度而言就是效率高，技术进步快，产品让消费者满意。

高质量发展有五个关键点。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

1.要坚持建设和完善社会主义的市场经济。这包含很多内容，“两个毫不动摇”“中国特色”“社会主义”等概念对国企和民企都非常重要；同样重要的是，一定要建设好市场经济体制。

2.要打造现代化产业体系。“现代化产业体系”可能是未来几年我国经济政策中一个非常重要的概念。现代化产业体系的内容相当丰富，核心就是以实体经济为主，不断现代化的产业体系。比如新兴工业化、绿色发展、数字经济、制造中国，全球产业链、供应链。

3.做好乡村振兴，实现城乡的协调发展。

4.实现不同区域的协调发展。

5.坚持高水平的对外开放。

今天更鲜明地提出高质量发展，并不意味着过去不追求高质量发展，只是从第二个百年目标开始，中国对创新和高质量发展的依赖更重，已经成为建设现代化强国的必由之路。

这与中国经济发展阶段和外部环境的变化都高度相关。不难看到中国经济环境的如下变化：

1.成本水平提高。刚改革开放时，我国拥有低成本优势；现在我国即将迈入高收入经济体门槛，经济发展的同时，成本水平也提高。在这样的情况下，想要保持持续增长只能靠创新。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

2.人口老龄化。这是必须面对的新环境，这一点跟过去有很大不同，过去有很丰厚的人口红利。

3.全球化的环境生变。今年4月，美国财长耶伦和国家安全顾问沙利文分别发表讲话，这两次讲话可以看作是美国经济政策的重新宣誓。过去半个世纪以来，美国一直是全球化的倡导者、引领者，甚至是重要支持者。过去50年的全球经济开放，实际上得益于美国的领导和推动。一直以来，美国的经济体系都比较开放，但它现在认为过去一些做法有问题。特朗普任美国总统时就曾主张“美国公司回流美国”，这一提法有违开放的经济秩序。美国通过了《芯片法案》，还采取了一些与过去不一致的产业政策，这一切都说明美国的立场已经切实转变。

当然，也不能据此就认定世界经济秩序已经定格，但美国作为全球化的主要引领者，其政策调整意味着我国将来的环境不同。比如所谓的“小院高墙”，意指美国并不排斥将来继续跟中国发生经济关系，但出于“对国家安全的考虑”，在一些特定领域不再跟中国打交道。美国想通过全球化转向等政策来增强自身实力，能否如愿以偿，值得高度怀疑。美国的做法会对很多国家有影响，但也不能由此认定全球化会已然结束。越是这个时候，世界各国越应该花大力气支持多边主义，坚持开放的国际经济体系。

七、数字经济如何助力经济持续增长

过去40年我国年均GDP增长9%，这非常了不起，但将来10年、20年一直到2049年，我国经济能否持续增长？现在，中国经济已经面临很多挑战。成本、人口和全球环境的变化意味着不能再走老路，过去习以为常的做法今后可能不再管用。

大家都知道双循环，以国内经济大循环为主，国内国际两个循环互相促进。下一步要更加依靠创新来推动经济增长，但只有开放的经济体系才有可能持续推动技术进步和效率提高。很难自己造出所有的尖端技术，世界上也没有哪个国家能做到包打天下，因此保持开放至关重要，两个循环不能偏废。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

目前中国面临的国际环境与1978年时大不一样，当时刚刚开始改革开放，很顺利就能融入国际经济中，很顺利地参与了国际劳动分工，做出来的产品只要成本低，质量还不错，就有销量。没有国家会因为产品是中国制造而拒绝购买。外国直接到中国投资也很顺畅。所以，中国确实是全球化的主要获益者之一。

下一步，国际经济交流变得越发重要，在技术上仍是后来者，还有很多方面需要交流学习。交流在今天的国际环境下显得尤为重要。

在此背景下，数字经济能发挥怎样的作用？

第一， 数字经济有助于形成全国统一的大市场。

过去我国不同地区之间的市场相对分割。我是学农业经济出身，那时候有一个现象是北方的玉米在南方按出口算。因为当时从东北到华南的运输成本太高，把东北的产品算作出口，再从南方以进口的方式买进，这样的成本更低。这个事例说明我国的市场没有真正整合到一起，交通运输成本就能将其分开。

我们做过一项研究，主要看近些年全国消费者价格指数的变化。研究发现在2013年以前，消费者价格指数起伏很大；2013年以后突然变得平稳。这背后的原因可能很多，其中很重要的一点就是电商、移动支付和物流运输的日渐发达。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

以常温牛奶为例，线上渠道销售的主要是整箱的常温奶，不分拆卖。线下销售的常温奶则可以拆卖。全国范围内看，整箱销售的常温奶价格出乎意料的一致，但线下拆卖的常温奶，价格差异非常大。其中的道理不难想象，线上销售的产品释放出固定的价格信号，消费者只会购买符合这个价格信号，或是与该信号价格差异不大的产品；如果差得太多，消费者就不会买。这实际上是通过数字技术把全国的市场整合到一起。物流也发挥了很大的作用，网上下单的东西，中国的大部分地方三天内就能收到。只有这样，整个市场才能结合到一起，全国统一大市场才成为可能。

瓜子二手车也是统一市场的例子。只要消费者到这家平台上买车，一定能获得全国最便宜的价格。这种行为在经济学上叫“套利行为”。这样运作的结果就是在全国形成统一市场。

第二， 数字经济有助于缩小地区差异。

我的一个博士生曾做过一项研究，发现农村的农民只要用上移动支付，其收入和就业状况很快就发生改变。数字技术把全国各地的人都连接起来，哪怕是身处小山沟的种植户，也可以足不出户掌握全国的需求动态。

北大数字金融研究中心专门做了一个北京大学数字普惠金融指数，把全国三千多个县、几百个地级市、三十几个省的数字普惠金融发展水平描绘出来。2011年时，沿海地区的数字普惠水平最为发达，但到2021年时，全国其他地区与沿海地区的差距明显缩小。这十年间，数字普惠金融增速最快的是中西部地区。这些地区原先没有金融服务，使用数字普惠金融服务的频率和数量也比不上沿海发达地区。然而这些地区的金融服务从无到有，其意义不可估量。我认为它代表了未来中国地区经济平衡发展的希望。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

大家都听说过“胡焕庸线”。过去，95%以上的经济都在线的东边，现在情况有所好转，但总体格局依旧没有从根本上变。然而从数字普惠金融的角度来看，这条线的格局已经起变化，说明西部经济完全有发展起来的可能。

第三，数字经济有利于推动创新发展。

国内有一种观点认为，我国数字经济大而不强，主要原因是原创技术不够多。去年10月，伦敦政治经济学院的两位学者曾发表一篇报告，专门分析评估中国在前沿技术的创新能力。研究结果表明，我国前沿技术的知识产权专利数量在过去十年飞速增长，在大部分领域已经超过日本和欧洲，在一些领域甚至超过了美国。这说明我国的前沿技术创新一直在快速追赶。很多学者认为，中国的专利数量多，但质量不高。我认为这完全有可能，毕竟我国的人均GDP只有13000美元左右。

英国这两位学者还研究了最优专利引用率。中国现在10%的专利引用率与日本、韩国处在同一个水平，距离美国还有较大差距。但是，中国技术的赶超态势已经非常明显。

2018年以后，我国赶超的增速有所放缓。哈佛大学教授Michael E.Porter曾就国家创新力的决定因素展开分析。他认为国家创新力取决于两大要素：一是投入，包括资金和人力投入。在这些方面，我国的水平快速上升；二是决定第一类投入效率的一些指标，包括知识产权保护、国家开放度、大学等公共研发机构、民营企业（民营企业贡献了70%以上的专利）等。从哈佛教授设计的这个框架看，我国赶超的增速有所放缓的原因在于中美经济关系有恶化之兆，让一些领域的交流受限。

我国前一段时间对平台企业的专项整治尽管很有必要，但如果这一行动对整个行业的信心造成比较大的影响，可能会进一步影响创新。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

八、如何构建有效的数字经济治理体系

如何保持一个开放的经济？特别是在一些国家要和我国脱钩的时候，这就更加考验智慧。

当然可以自力更生，但对大多数国家而言，交流合作更为重要。在开放的系统中，创新才会发展地更快更好。

对数字经济而言，决策部门的专项整治已经结束，下一步的重点是常态化监管。当然，常态化的监管框架还在形成中，有些规定还不够清楚。比如，“资本无序扩张”概念可能需要更加清晰地界定，避免误读。尤其是企业对于监管的规则要明确，对监管的预期要稳定，这一点非常重要。

数据是数字经济中的重要元素，其应用有助于提升效率，具备很多优势。然而数据也需要风控，如果没有一套好的规则，无法保护个人隐私和商业机密等有关数据，数字经济的发展就会出现很多问题。在中国，需要找到一种平衡，既要适当地保护必要的、基本的权利，也要留下足够的空间让企业创新。这是一个非常大的考验。

小结

数字经济对全球都是新技术、新业态，对中国而言是非常难得的发展机会。中国再一次站到了产业创新的第一线，非常值得我们自豪。然而问题的关键是如何持续保持这种态势，一步步逼近最前沿，而不是逐渐偏离前沿。

数字经济能发挥很多积极作用，但也存在一些问题。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

数据可以让信息变得更对称，但也会让一些事情变得更不对称。比如“大数据杀熟”到底是否合理？定价不能拍脑袋决定，今天要价80元，明天100元。从这个角度看，监管非常必要。但是监管归根到底还是要平衡效率和公平。市场不能没有规则，但过度强调规则，市场也会失去活力。监管也需要创新，监管和市场应该不断地合作、磨合。比如，现在都用数据和平台做金融业务，这方面的监管也需要与时俱进；如果继续沿用传统的监管方式，肯定管不住风险。

面向未来，在数字经济方面，我国还有很大的提升空间。要继续跟着前沿往前跑，即使是面对很大的挑战也要坚持。一定要让企业和市场真正地发挥作用，同时推动监管和市场一起合作，共同找到最佳平衡点。

翻译：

Huang Yiping: Digital economy and high-quality economic development

Inscription:

On the evening of June 12, 2023, the 42nd session of the DPS Doctoral Forum of Peking University Institute of National Development was held. This article is based on the keynote speech of Huang Yiping, 50 members of the forum, vice president of the National Development Institute of Peking University and director of the Digital Finance Research Center.

Today, I would like to share with you the digital economy and high-quality economic development, which is mainly divided into two parts. The first part discusses what is the digital economy, why the digital economy can bring great changes to economic life, and what problems it brings. The second part discusses the relationship between digital economy and high-quality development.

I. Overview of China’s digital economy

The digital economy has become an extremely common concept in daily life. In 1994, China was connected to the Internet, after which a number of Internet companies mushroomed, and many of today’s well-known companies were founded at that time. Most of the Chinese companies that have done better in the digital economy have also been founded and grown in the past two or three decades.

China’s digital economy started early, and it is not too late compared with the big Internet companies in the United States, which is rare. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

There is also an interesting phenomenon in China’s digital economy, that is, the enterprises established in the early years have quickly developed into the leading enterprises in China and even the world. Generally speaking, through some quantitative indicators, we can have a basic judgment on the development of the digital economy. These indicators include: How big is the digital economy? How high is the market penetration? How many people are employed? How many unicorns are there?

The so-called unicorn company generally refers to less than 10 years of creation, the market value of more than 1 billion dollars, but still not listed companies. Why count unicorns? Because they are the best indication of a country’s potential for innovation. The high number of unicorns means that innovation is very active in the country. Without unicorns, the country would not necessarily be a leader in innovation, no matter how many big companies there are.

From the above indicators, the world’s best digital economy development is the United States and China. As a developing country, China’s digital economy ranks second in the world, which is remarkable.

When studying China’s digital economy, we often hear the term “big but not strong”, which means that the digital economy is big, but there are not many technical originals in some key areas, and the technical level is not leading enough. This judgment is very accurate, and it is indeed a problem in the development of our digital economy. At present, China’s per capita GDP is only about 13,000 US dollars, compared with the level of 150 US dollars per capita in 1978, but there is still a huge gap from the developed countries’ per capita GDP of 50,000 to 60,000 US dollars. Therefore, some problems in the development of our digital economy can also be understood, which is basically consistent with our country’s current level of economic development. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Second, why can China’s digital economy develop rapidly

As a developing country, China’s digital economy has become the second in the world in a short period of time, mainly because it has caught up with the trend of technological innovation in the fourth Industrial Revolution. Some of the technologies used in the digital economy, such as blockchain, cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, etc., are new technologies generated in the fourth industrial revolution, and when applied to the digital economy, they become different forms of the digital economy.

This, in my view, is particularly heartening. The prosperous development of the digital economy means that China has been closely following the forefront of the fourth industrial revolution and constantly moving forward. Some technologies may not be original, but we can use new technologies as soon as they appear. Some domestic companies make applications that are no worse than foreign ones, or even better. Other companies’ products are also popular overseas.

When the first three industrial revolutions arose, China was very far away from the world’s scientific and technological frontier, and by the time relevant technologies were transmitted to China, the wave of scientific and technological revolution had long passed. This time there was a historical shift from staying away from the frontier to playing catch-up.

I think there are two key reasons for this: efficient markets and effective government.

Let’s start with the government. The government plays an important role because a good economy needs a lot of basic conditions when it starts. For example, market reform, which is also the most important work done by the government in the past 40 years, has finally been able to form a market mechanism. Another example is a lot of infrastructure investment, moderately advanced digital infrastructure construction. Another very important one is educational development. In the past few decades, China has trained more than 100 million science and engineering talents, all of which can promote the development of the digital economy in terms of technology. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Then there’s efficient markets. The fact that the digital economy can become bigger and relatively ahead in China is mainly the result of market-oriented reforms. Today, these well-known and influential digital economy enterprises at home and abroad are all private enterprises. These businesses start with one or a few young people having an innovative idea and then finding a way to land it.

The idea can land, indicating that the idea is good, the management ability is strong, and more importantly, the market mechanism in China is playing a role. Although economists have many criticisms of the market mechanism, a private enterprise can develop into an influential enterprise in the country and even the world in 5-10 years, which shows that China’s market allocation of resources and support for innovation is effective. In fact, the United States has a model of a successful “American Dream,” and China has a model of a successful “Chinese dream.” When the digital economy really develops, the market plays the most important role, which is also significant for future innovation.

Third, the concept of digital economy

The digital economy has two important elements, one is data resources, and the other is modern networks.

Digital economy is a new economic form that applies digital technology tools to economic activities, so that efficiency and fairness can be better unified. The ultimate problem of economics is efficiency and fairness. On the one hand, efficiency should be improved, and on the other hand, fairness should be emphasized. Much of the world’s economic policy swings back and forth, often with trade-offs between efficiency and fairness. Perhaps the digital economy can achieve a relatively good balance between fairness and efficiency, but it must be emphasized that this is “relatively”, not “absolute”. In fact, many problems in the current platform economy operation are likely to be a failure to achieve effective unity of fairness and efficiency.

In general, there are two broad categories of the digital economy:

The first is digital industrialization, some new data and technology-related businesses have become new industries. For example, the collection, accumulation, cleaning, analysis, trading and sharing of big data, storage and cloud computing equipment manufacturing, the digital economy’s demand for data makes these new forms a new industry. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

The second is industrial digitalization. Digital technology makes the original industry more efficient, the risk is more controllable, and the effect of economies of scale is more prominent. This is a more common form of digital in daily life, such as digital agriculture, digital manufacturing, digital China, etc. In the digital education during the epidemic, teachers are lecturing on the screen, which is also a new business form after traditional industries are equipped with digital technology.

Every day, we use some apps developed by platform companies, such as online shopping, watching short videos, social networking, taxi hailing and so on. These platform enterprises are an important manifestation and form of industrial digitalization. Shopping and taking a taxi have long existed in our daily life. We have all been to the farmers’ market and stood on the roadside to hail a taxi. Platform companies move these pre-existing functions online, making the scale even larger. In the past, taxi booking systems also existed, such as telephone booking taxis, but now through the APP, car booking is more efficient, more widely matched, faster, and better experience. Digital technology has improved the efficiency and service quality of many traditional businesses. Some experts believe that university education is also a platform, such as live lectures are watched by many people online. Education has become more accessible with digital technology. Mobile payment is also a vivid example. Wechat Pay and Alipay each have about one billion active users, which is difficult for traditional financial institutions to achieve, so it is mainly due to the role of digital technology.

In short, digital economy is the application of digital technology to the economy, the formation of some new economic forms, or some improvement of traditional economic forms.

It is important to distinguish between these two parts properly. It is often said that the digital economy accounts for more than 40% of China’s total GDP, the United States is 65%, and Germany may be higher. However, such algorithms seem to eat up the original share of manufacturing, so this algorithm is also open to debate.

It is undeniable that digital industrialization has indeed brought a new atmosphere to the economy and provided infrastructure and solutions for industrial digitalization to a certain extent. Therefore, digital technology should be embraced proactively.

The utility of the digital economy

The application of digital technology to economic activities can bring many changes. I simply summarize it as “three liters and three downgrades” : “three liters” is mainly to expand the scale, improve efficiency, and improve user experience; The “three drops” are to reduce costs, control risks and reduce direct contact. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

It is not difficult to see that the digital economy and the traditional economy have similarities, but there are indeed many new features and new performances.

“Three liters” is easy to understand. In the past, a department store could only receive a limited number of consumers every day, but online shopping was not, no matter how many consumers, almost can cope. According to the data, ten years ago, mobile payments could handle about 300 transactions per second, and now this number has reached millions, improving efficiency on the one hand and improving user experience on the other hand. If today’s mobile payments can only handle 300 transactions per second, it’s hard to imagine what that would be like.

The “three health” is also relatively easy to understand. As long as the efficiency is controlled, the scale is increased, and the cost is naturally reduced, the use of big data analysis can also control the risk. A very important innovation in digital finance is called “digital credit”. In the past, bank financial inclusion was more difficult to do, because how to determine the qualification of customers was a common headache for banks. Generally speaking, bank loans mainly look at financial and mortgage assets. There are many customers who do not have this “credit” and the bank is not sure whether to lend. For banks, it is important to do a good job of risk control, and whether loans can be returned is a big problem. Today, with the help of big data, risk control has become easy. As long as the lender leaves a digital footprint on the Internet, such as online social networking, online shopping, online car booking, etc., it is feasible to do risk control through these digital footprints, which can not only lend money, but also better than the defect rate control of traditional banks. It can be seen that big data risk control is effective. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

In 2020, the International Monetary Fund and the Peking University Digital Finance Research Center met to discuss China’s big Tech credit, which is simply understood as online lending. According to past experience, whether in the United States or other countries, when natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and tornadoes occur, financial institutions are immediately closed, and people are unable to conduct business, causing inconvenience to many people. However, the International Monetary Fund found that China’s digital financial institutions continued to serve consumers during the pandemic, regardless of whether they experienced a lockdown or quarantine. They think it’s amazing. It may be familiar to young people, but older people who have experienced it know that being unable to get to the bank due to weather can be a hassle. Thus, contactless transactions in finance not only increase efficiency, but also make possible many of the previously impossible.

It is difficult for traditional financial services to reach the main body of the rural economy, so they can only open branches all over the country and send many loan officers to visit the loan objects. This is costly and makes financial inclusion more difficult. With just a smartphone and an Internet signal, you can now access the same financial services anywhere in China, taking out loans, making payments, buying insurance and even investing with ease.

Characteristics of the digital economy

First, digital technology has a long tail effect, which can take products that are small, scattered, or few people want to do, and turn them into very large businesses. Yu ‘e Bao is a classic example of the long tail effect. At the beginning, Yu ‘e Bao wanted to find domestic head investment funds to cooperate, but no head investment funds were interested, and had to find the then medium-sized Tianhong Fund. Most of the small investments in Yu ‘e Bao are 50 or 500 yuan, but the small investments of hundreds of millions of people together are very impressive. As a result, Tianhong has grown into the country’s largest investment fund in just one year. In many economic activities, the long tail effect can promote inclusive business, and the key is that through the long tail effect, the business that is not worth losing for traditional institutions can be gathered together, become a big business, and also change the original business mode. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Second, the digital economy is an economy of scale. The characteristic of economies of scale is that the larger the scale, the higher the efficiency, which is different from the traditional economic theory. Traditional economic theory holds that there is an “optimal scale” of economic development, that is, when the scale is increased after the development reaches a certain level, the return will decrease. However, the domestic large platform institutions have hundreds of millions or even one billion users, and some foreign platform enterprises even have billions of users. The bigger these firms are, the more efficient they are and the better their services are, which was rarely seen in the past economic life.

Third, the digital economy is an economy of scope. Economies of scope are horizontal economies of scale, meaning that after a platform is established, cross-border competition becomes relatively easy. After the establishment of an e-commerce platform, and the accumulation of certain customers and data resources, it can have the conditions to carry out other areas of business, such as taxi, takeout, travel and so on. Once you have data and customers, it’s not hard to cross borders. For platform enterprises, once the business crosses over, the average cost will also fall. For enterprises, it is more cost-effective to cross business boundaries than to set up multiple platforms for different business types.

Fourth, the digital economy is characterized by a two-sided market. A two-sided market means that a bigger market on one side is good for the value of the other side. If an e-commerce business has a lot of consumers, there will be a lot of small bosses willing to open stores on this platform; Similarly, if the products on an e-commerce platform are very rich, there will be more and more consumers. This is the two-sided market. Two-sided markets can sometimes lead to special behaviors that American experts have studied. Some platforms offer their services for free, or even subsidize them. It seems that the platform has subsidized consumers, it seems that it should not be judged to have monopoly behavior, at least the platform’s practice has not harmed the interests of consumers. However, the study of American experts believes that this issue needs to be looked at both sides, not unilaterally. The platform expands the market size by subsidizing consumers, and after forming a certain market power, it can implement unfair competition, which is still disadvantageous to consumers.

For the above problems, a complete comparison and analysis are needed. On the one hand, platforms contribute market share and data, which cannot be ignored. On the other hand, these shares and data can help the platform to make more money, and advertising fees alone are a large amount of income. Perhaps the platform believes that it has also paid real money, but consumers may also feel that the free service of the platform is not really free and hidden. However, the circumstances of different platforms are different, and case-by-case analysis is required. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Why is the digital economy closely related to high-quality development

In 2021, China will achieve its first centenary goal — building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. By 2049, we need to achieve the second centenary goal — building a great modern socialist country in all respects. The meaning of socialist modern power is very rich, among which the first issue is the high-quality economic development.

How to understand high-quality development? From an economic point of view, it is high efficiency, rapid technological progress, and products that satisfy consumers.

There are five key points for high-quality development.

1. We must persist in building and improving a socialist market economy. This includes a lot of content, “two unwavering”, “Chinese characteristics”, “socialism” and other concepts are very important to both state-owned enterprises and private enterprises; Equally important, we must build a market economy.

2. We will build a modern industrial system. “Modern industrial system” may be a very important concept in our economic policy in the next few years. The content of the modern industrial system is quite rich, and the core is an industrial system based on the real economy and constantly modernized. Such as emerging industrialization, green development, digital economy, Made in China, global industrial chain, supply chain. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

3. Do a good job in rural revitalization and achieve coordinated development between urban and rural areas.

4. Achieve coordinated development of different regions.

5. Adhere to a high level of opening-up.

To put forward high-quality development more clearly today does not mean that high-quality development was not pursued in the past, but from the second centenary Goal, China has relied more heavily on innovation and high-quality development, and has become the only way to build a modern power.

This is highly related to the changes in China’s economic development stage and external environment. It is not difficult to see the following changes in China’s economic environment:

1. Increased cost level. When just reforming and opening up, our country has the low cost advantage; Now China is about to enter the threshold of high-income economy, economic development at the same time, the cost level is also rising. Under such circumstances, sustained growth can only be achieved through innovation. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

2. Population aging. This is a new environment that we have to face, which is very different from the past, when there was a very rich demographic dividend.

3. The environmental changes of globalization. In April this year, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and National Security Adviser Sullivan delivered separate speeches, which can be seen as a renewed oath of American economic policy. Over the past half century, the United States has been an advocate, leader, and even an important supporter of globalization. The opening up of the global economy over the past 50 years was in fact due to American leadership and facilitation. The United States has always had a relatively open economic system, but it now sees some of its past practices as problematic. When he was president of the United States, Donald Trump advocated the return of American companies to the United States, which is contrary to the open economic order. The passage of the Chip Act and the adoption of industrial policies that are inconsistent with the past indicate a real shift in the US position.

Of course, it cannot be concluded that the world economic order has been fixed, but the United States, as the main leader of globalization, its policy adjustment means that our future environment will be different. For example, the so-called “small courtyard wall” means that the United States does not exclude continuing economic relations with China in the future, but will no longer deal with China in some specific areas out of “national security concerns.” It is highly doubtful whether the United States will be able to enhance its own power through policies such as the shift to globalization. What the US does will have an impact on many countries, but it does not follow that globalisation is over. At a time like this, all the more important it is for countries around the world to make greater efforts to support multilateralism and uphold an open international economic system.

How does the digital economy contribute to sustained economic growth

China’s average annual GDP growth of 9% over the past 40 years is remarkable, but will it continue to grow in the next 10, 20 years until 2049? Now, China’s economy has faced many challenges. Changes in costs, demographics, and the global environment mean that the old ways can no longer be done, and what has been done in the past may not work in the future. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

We all know that the double cycle is dominated by the domestic economic cycle, and the domestic and international cycles promote each other. The next step is to rely more on innovation to drive economic growth, but only an open economic system is likely to sustain technological progress and efficiency gains. It is difficult to build all the cutting-edge technology on its own, and no country in the world can do it all, so it is vital to remain open, and the two cycles cannot be ignored.

At present, the international environment facing China is very different from that in 1978, when the reform and opening up had just begun, it was able to integrate into the international economy smoothly, participate in the international division of labor smoothly, and the products produced were sold as long as the cost was low and the quality was good. No country will refuse to buy products just because they are made in China. Direct foreign investment into China is also smooth. So it is true that China has been one of the main beneficiaries of globalization.

In the next step, international economic exchanges are becoming more and more important, and they are still a latecomer in terms of technology. Communication is particularly important in today’s international environment.

What role can the digital economy play in this context?

First, the digital economy is conducive to the formation of a large and unified national market.

In the past, the market between different regions of our country was relatively segmented. I was trained in agricultural economics, and at that time there was a phenomenon that corn from the North was exported to the South. Because the cost of transportation from the Northeast to southern China was too high at that time, it was cheaper to count products from the Northeast as exports and buy them as imports from the south. This is an example of how our markets are not really integrated, and transport costs can separate them.

We did a study looking at the changes in the national consumer price index in recent years. The study found that before 2013, the consumer price index fluctuated greatly; It suddenly leveled off after 2013. There may be many reasons behind this, not the least of which is the increasing development of e-commerce, mobile payment and logistics. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Taking normal temperature milk as an example, the online channel sales are mainly the whole box of normal temperature milk, regardless of dismantling. Offline sales of room temperature milk can be dismantled. Nationwide, the price of normal temperature milk sold by the whole box is unexpectedly consistent, but the price difference of normal temperature milk sold offline is very large. It is not difficult to imagine that products sold online release a fixed price signal, and consumers will only buy products that meet this price signal, or the price is not different from the signal; If it’s too bad, consumers won’t buy it. This is essentially the integration of markets across the country through digital technology. Logistics also plays a big role, with most places in China receiving items ordered online within three days. Only in this way can the whole market be combined and the national unified market become possible.

Guazi used cars are also examples of a unified market. As long as consumers buy a car on this platform, they will be able to get the cheapest price in the country. This kind of behavior is called “arbitrage behavior” in economics. The result is a single market across the country.

Second, the digital economy can help narrow regional differences.

One of my doctoral students did a study that found that farmers in rural areas quickly changed their income and employment when they used mobile payments. Digital technology is connecting people all over the country, and even farmers in small mountain valleys can keep track of the country’s demand dynamics without leaving their homes.

The Peking University Digital Financial Research Center has specially made a Peking University Digital financial inclusion index, depicting the development level of digital financial inclusion in more than 3,000 counties, hundreds of prefecture-level cities and more than 30 provinces across the country. In 2011, the coastal areas had the most developed level of digital inclusion, but by 2021, the gap between the rest of the country and the coastal areas has narrowed significantly. During this decade, the fastest growth in digital financial inclusion was in the central and western regions. These regions did not previously have financial services, and the frequency and volume of use of digital financial inclusion services is not as high as that of developed coastal regions. Yet the significance of building financial services from scratch in these regions is incalculable. I think it represents the hope of balanced regional economic development in China in the future. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Everyone has heard of the “Hu Huanyong Line”. In the past, more than 95 percent of the economy was online in the east, and the situation has improved, but the overall pattern has not fundamentally changed. However, from the perspective of digital inclusive finance, the pattern of this line has changed, indicating that the western economy is fully possible to develop.

Third, the digital economy is conducive to promoting innovative development.

There is a view that China’s digital economy is large but not strong, the main reason is that the original technology is not enough. Last October, two academics from the London School of Economics published a report assessing China’s ability to innovate in cutting-edge technologies. The research results show that the number of intellectual property patents for cutting-edge technologies in China has skyrocketed in the past decade, surpassing Japan and Europe in most areas, and even surpassing the United States in some areas. This shows that China’s cutting-edge technological innovation has been catching up fast. Many scholars believe that the number of patents in China is high, but the quality is not high. I think this is entirely possible, after all, our per capita GDP is only about $13,000.

The British academics also looked at optimal patent citation rates. China’s current patent citation rate of 10% is at the same level as Japan and South Korea, and there is still a big gap between the United States. However, China’s technological catch-up trend has been very obvious.

After 2018, the growth rate of catching up has slowed down. Michael E. Poulter, a professor at Harvard University, has analyzed the determinants of national innovation. He believes that national innovation depends on two factors: first, investment, including capital and human input. In these respects, the level of our country has risen rapidly. The second is some indicators that determine the efficiency of the first type of input, including intellectual property protection, national openness, public research and development institutions such as universities, and private enterprises (private enterprises contribute more than 70% of patents). From the perspective of the framework designed by the Harvard professor, the reason why the growth rate of China’s catch-up has slowed down is that the economic relations between China and the United States have deteriorated, so that exchanges in some areas are limited. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Although China’s special rectification of platform enterprises is necessary some time ago, if this action has a relatively large impact on the confidence of the entire industry, it may further affect innovation.

How to build an effective digital economy governance system

How to maintain an open economy? Especially at a time when some countries want to decouple from China, this is even more a test of wisdom.

Of course, self-reliance is possible, but for most countries, communication and cooperation are more important. Innovation develops faster and better in an open system.

For the digital economy, the special rectification of decision-making departments has ended, and the next step is to focus on normal supervision. Of course, a normalized regulatory framework is still emerging, and some rules are unclear. For example, the concept of “disorderly expansion of capital” may need to be more clearly defined to avoid misinterpretation. In particular, it is very important for enterprises to be clear about the rules of supervision and stable expectations of supervision.

Data is an important element in the digital economy, and its application helps to improve efficiency and has many advantages. However, data also needs risk control, if there is no set of good rules, can not protect personal privacy and trade secrets and other relevant data, the development of the digital economy will appear a lot of problems. In China, a balance needs to be struck between properly protecting necessary, fundamental rights while leaving enough room for companies to innovate. This is a very big test. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Brief summary

The digital economy is a new technology and new business model for the whole world, and it is a very rare development opportunity for China. China is once again at the forefront of industrial innovation, and we are very proud of it. The key, however, is how to continue this trend, step by step closer to the forefront, rather than gradually away from the forefront.

The digital economy can play many positive roles, but there are also some problems.

Data can make information more symmetrical, but it can also make some things more asymmetric. For example, is “big data kill cooked” reasonable in the end? Pricing can not be decided by the head, the price is 80 yuan today, 100 yuan tomorrow. From this perspective, regulation is necessary. But regulation is ultimately about balancing efficiency and fairness. The market can not be without rules, but too much emphasis on rules, the market will lose vitality. Regulation also needs innovation, and regulation and the market should continue to cooperate and adapt. For example, people now use data and platforms to do financial business, and supervision in this area also needs to keep pace with The Times. If we continue to use traditional regulatory methods, we will certainly fail to manage risks.

Facing the future, in terms of the digital economy, China still has a lot of room for improvement. Keep moving forward with the front line, even in the face of great challenges. We must let the business and the market really play a role, while pushing the regulation and the market to work together to find the best balance. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

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