【观点】富国基金总经理陈戈：长期资金管理的三个机遇

近日，富国基金总经理陈戈在全球财富管理论坛•2023上海苏河湾大会的“当前形势下长期资金管理的机遇与挑战”主题论坛上发表演讲。

陈戈论述了长期资金的发展机遇和面临的挑战。机遇有三个方面：第一，从居民资产配置的角度来看，中国十年期国债收益率的下降将会驱动居民在个人资产配置中进一步向长期财富管理转移，这将为长期资金提供源源不断的规模增长；第二，从中长期宏观大环境的角度来看，顺着中国经济增长的内生和外生驱动力两大驱动力的线索，不断挖掘结构性的优质资产，将构成长期资金管理机构获取潜在回报的源泉；第三，从当前资本市场环境的角度来看，长期资金入市正迎来的难得机遇窗口期。同时，他提出，长期资金管理面临的挑战包括四个方面，包括固定收益类的可投资产缺乏；同类资产结构性分化；不够健全的的考核环境和土壤；以及逆全球化趋势不断强化，地缘政治风险不断加剧。最后，他认为，长期资金管理机构苦练内功，不断提升投研实力和风控能力，并且坚持长期投资和价值投资的理念。

近年来随着长期资金的规模增长和制度障碍不断被扫清，长期资金参与各类资产投资的广度与深度正在持续加快拓展，因此在当前阶段分析长期资金管理的机遇与挑战非常有意义。目前我们富国基金管理的社保基金、企业年金、职业年金、养老金等长期资金已经成为我们富国基金管理资产中极为重要的组成部分。我们结合自己的经验，分享我们对长期资金管理机遇与挑战的看法。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

首先，我们将从以下三个角度来论述长期资金的发展机遇：

第一是从居民资产配置的角度来看，随着中国十年期国债收益率从2018年接近4%下行至当前最新的2.7%，全市场6个月理财产品的预期收益率也从2018年的5%下行至最新的1.8%；而反过来看社保基金在已公布投资业绩的21年间取得了8.3%的年均收益率，基本养老保险基金自2016年底受托至2021年的年均投资收益率也达到了6.5%，都显著高于长期无风险收益率和短期理财收益率——这个明显的比价效应将会驱动居民在个人资产配置中进一步向长期财富管理转移，这将为长期资金提供源源不断的弹药。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

第二是从中长期宏观大环境的角度来看，仍然有利于我们挖掘出能够带来长期可观回报的资产——当前中国经济处于疫后稳定恢复和实现高质量发展的关键时期，IMF最新预测显示，中国今明两年的GDP实际增速将分别达到5.2%和4.5%，相较于欧美发达国家的经济增长预测具备显著优势。我们可以从经济增长的内生和外生驱动力两个方面来佐证IMF的这个判断：从内生动力来看，国内的“工程师红利”将内生驱动经济的创新发展，带来产业结构不断转型升级；而从外生动力来看，在海外需求放缓的背景下，我国出口仍然维持韧性，凸显出中国制造业供应链的生态系统在全球具有不可替代性。因此，顺着以上两大驱动力的线索，不断挖掘结构性的优质资产，将构成长期资金管理机构获取潜在回报的源泉。

第三是从当前资本市场环境的角度来看，长期资金入市正迎来难得机遇窗口期——目前沪深300的PE估值为13.3倍，上证综指PE估值13.8倍，均已接近历史底部区间，而国际横向比较来看也明显低于日本、韩国和美国的宽基指数估值（日本日经225的PE17.4倍、美国标普500的PE20.1倍，韩国KOSPI的PE 17倍）；A股股权风险溢价当前也处于历史80%的高分位水平，意味着股债相对回报率已非常具有吸引力，这凸显了权益资产当下的配置价值。并且在政策环境上，监管机构也拟通过扩大投资范围、完善税收优惠、会计核算及考核制度等形式形成跨部委协同，在制度层面为资本市场引入长期资金提供保驾护航。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

当然，在看到以上机遇的同时，我们确实也要意识到，当前国内外政治经济环境日益复杂化，这也对长期资金管理提出了严峻的挑战。

首先，刚才提到的居民个人资产配置向长期财富资产管理转移的现象，背后的根源在于长期利率中枢的下移，但这也意味着固定收益类的可投资产缺乏，尤其是在地产、城投等相关债务处置化解过程中，风险也在不断积累加大，优质的可投资产将越来越稀缺。因此对长期资金来说将不得不长期面对“资产荒”的问题，也将非常考验长期资金管理机构的大类资产配置能力。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

其次，即使在同类资产内部，近年来结构性的分化也在不断拉大，这对长期资金管理机构的投研能力和精细化研究提出了更高要求。举例来说，固定收益类资产近年来在区域间、行业间、不同企业间的信用利差持续加大，信用投资的难度随之加大；而在权益市场，近年来A股市场结构性轮动加快，不同行业之间以及同行业内部不同股票的投资收益差异很大，这就需要长期资金管理机构对产业筛选、行业比较和个股研究上投入更大的资源。

第三，对长期资金管理机构需要匹配长期的业绩考核机制，但当前长期考核的环境和土壤仍不够健全。举例来说，根据中国保险资管业协会2022年度报告，保险行业中按照单一年度考核的保险机构占比依然超过60%，若短期业绩不达标，投资经理和管理人将可能面临撤资或者被替换的压力；而在公募基金行业，虽然鼓励公募基金进行长期投资已是监管发力重点，但不可控的赎回压力，以及部分机构或媒体对单一年度甚至季度业绩的过度营销宣传，也容易造成长期投资理念难以在实践中完全贯彻。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

最后，近年来逆全球化趋势不断强化，地缘政治风险也在不断加剧，全球股票和债券市场都呈现出高波动的特征，要在这种环境下获得稳定的长期回报，对长期资金管理机构的风控管理能力也提出了极大的挑战。

综合以上分析，我们认为对长期资金管理机构来说，虽然机遇和挑战并存，但只要苦练内功，不断提升投研实力和风控能力，并且坚持长期投资和价值投资的理念，一定是机遇大于挑战。同时我们也借此机会呼吁资金方、投资方、中介方和媒体一起努力，共同打造出对长期投资公正客观的长期考核机制和评价体系，为长期投资营造健全良好的环境和土壤，更好地发挥长期资金市场稳定器和经济发展助推器的作用。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

翻译：

Chen Ge, General manager of Fuguo Fund: Three opportunities for long-term money management

Recently, Chen Ge, General Manager of Wells Fargo Fund, delivered a speech at the theme forum “Opportunities and Challenges of Long-term Money Management under the Current Situation” at the Global Wealth Management Forum 2023 Shanghai Suhewan Conference.

Chen Ge discussed the development opportunities and challenges of long-term funding. There are three opportunities: First, from the perspective of household asset allocation, the decline of China’s 10-year Treasury bond yield will drive residents to further transfer to long-term wealth management in personal asset allocation, which will provide a steady increase in the scale of long-term funds; Second, from the perspective of the macro environment in the medium and long term, following the clues of the endogenous and exogenous driving forces of China’s economic growth, continuous exploration of structural high-quality assets will constitute the source of potential returns for long-term money management institutions. Third, from the perspective of the current capital market environment, long-term funds entering the market is ushering in a rare window of opportunity. At the same time, he pointed out that the challenges facing long-term money management include four aspects, including the lack of investable products in fixed income; Structural differentiation of similar assets; Inadequate assessment of the environment and soil; The trend of anti-globalization is intensifying, and geopolitical risks are increasing. Finally, he believes that long-term fund management institutions work hard to practice internal skills, constantly improve investment and research strength and risk control ability, and adhere to the concept of long-term investment and value investment. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

In recent years, with the growth of the scale of long-term funds and the removal of institutional obstacles, the breadth and depth of long-term funds’ participation in various asset investments are continuously expanding. Therefore, it is very meaningful to analyze the opportunities and challenges of long-term funds management at the current stage. At present, the long-term funds managed by our fund, such as social security fund, enterprise annuity, occupational annuity and pension, have become an extremely important part of the assets managed by our fund. We combine our experience to share our views on the opportunities and challenges of long-term money management.

First, we will discuss the development opportunities of long-term capital from the following three perspectives:

First, from the perspective of residential asset allocation, as the yield of China’s 10-year Treasury bonds fell from nearly 4% in 2018 to the latest 2.7% at present, the expected yield of six-month financial products in the whole market also fell from 5% in 2018 to the latest 1.8%; On the other hand, the Social Security Fund has achieved an average annual return of 8.3% in the 21 years since its investment performance has been announced, and the average annual return of the basic pension fund from the end of 2016 to 2021 has also reached 6.5%. Are significantly higher than the long-term risk-free rate of return and short-term financial returns – this obvious price-comparison effect will drive residents to further transfer to long-term wealth management in personal asset allocation, which will provide a steady stream of ammunition for long-term funds. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Second, from the perspective of the medium and long-term macro environment, it is still conducive to exploring assets that can bring long-term considerable returns. At present, China’s economy is in a critical period of stable recovery after the epidemic and high-quality development. According to the latest forecast of the IMF, China’s real GDP growth rate this year and next year will reach 5.2% and 4.5% respectively. Compared with the economic growth forecast of developed countries in Europe and the United States, it has significant advantages. We can support the IMF’s judgment from the two aspects of endogenous and exogenous driving forces of economic growth: From the perspective of endogenous driving force, the domestic “engineer dividend” will drive the innovative development of the economy and bring about the continuous transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure; From the perspective of exogenous power, in the context of slowing overseas demand, China’s exports still maintain resilience, highlighting the irreplaceability of the ecosystem of China’s manufacturing supply chain in the world. Therefore, following the clues of the above two driving forces, the continuous exploration of structural high-quality assets will constitute a source of potential returns for long-term money managers.

Third, from the perspective of the current capital market environment, long-term funds entering the market is ushering in a rare window of opportunity – the current PE valuation of CSI 300 is 13.3 times, and the PE valuation of Shanghai Composite Index is 13.8 times, which is close to the historical bottom range. The international horizontal comparison is also significantly lower than the broad base index valuation of Japan, South Korea and the United States (Japan’s Nikkei 225 PE17.4 times, the United States S&P 500 PE20.1 times, South Korea KOSPI PE17 times); The A-share equity risk premium is also currently at A high historical level of 80%, which means that the relative return on stocks and bonds is very attractive, which highlights the current allocation value of equity assets. In terms of policy environment, regulators also plan to form cross-ministerial coordination by expanding the scope of investment, improving tax incentives, accounting and assessment systems, and provide escort for the introduction of long-term funds in the capital market at the institutional level.

Of course, while seeing the above opportunities, we do have to realize that the current domestic and international political and economic environment is increasingly complex, which also poses serious challenges to long-term fund management.

First of all, the phenomenon of transferring residents’ personal asset allocation to long-term wealth asset management just mentioned is rooted in the downward movement of long-term interest rates, but it also means that there is a lack of investable products in fixed income, especially in the process of debt disposal and resolution related to real estate and urban investment, the risk is also accumulating and increasing, and high-quality investable products will become increasingly scarce. Therefore, for long-term funds, it will have to face the problem of “asset shortage” for a long time, and it will also test the large-scale asset allocation ability of long-term funds management institutions.

Second, even within similar assets, the structural differentiation has been increasing in recent years, which puts higher requirements on the investment and research capabilities and refined research of long-term fund management institutions. For example, in recent years, the credit spread of fixed income assets between regions, industries and different enterprises has continued to increase, and the difficulty of credit investment has increased. In the equity market, the structural rotation of the A-share market has accelerated in recent years, and the investment returns of different stocks in different industries and within the same industry vary greatly, which requires long-term fund management institutions to invest more resources in industry screening, industry comparison and individual stock research.

Third, long-term fund management institutions need to match long-term performance assessment mechanisms, but the current environment and soil for long-term assessment are still not sound enough. For example, according to the 2022 annual report of the Insurance Asset Management Association of China, the proportion of insurance institutions in the insurance industry according to a single annual assessment is still more than 60%, if the short-term performance is not up to standard, investment managers and managers may face the pressure of withdrawal or replacement; In the public fund industry, although encouraging long-term investment of public funds has been the focus of regulatory efforts, uncontrollable redemption pressure, as well as excessive marketing and publicity of a single year or even quarterly performance by some institutions or media, also easily cause long-term investment concepts to be difficult to fully implement in practice. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Finally, in recent years, the trend of anti-globalization has been intensifying, geopolitical risks have also been increasing, and the global stock and bond markets have shown the characteristics of high volatility. To obtain stable long-term returns under such an environment, the risk control and management ability of long-term fund management institutions have also been greatly challenged.

Based on the above analysis, we believe that for long-term capital management institutions, although opportunities and challenges coexist, as long as they practice their internal skills, constantly improve their investment and research strength and risk control ability, and adhere to the concept of long-term investment and value investment, opportunities must outweigh challenges. At the same time, we also take this opportunity to call on funds, investors, intermediaries and the media to work together to create a fair and objective long-term assessment mechanism and evaluation system for long-term investment, create a sound and sound environment and soil for long-term investment, and better play the role of long-term capital market stabilizer and economic development promoter. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

由CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）转载而成，来源于中国财富管理50人论坛；编辑/翻译：CXO UNIONCXO联盟小U。

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