【观点】中国能源研究会常务理事李俊峰：光伏人不能自己把路走死，降低成本要适可而止

1月6日，“向山越海·WE来有光”2024晶澳生态朋友圈跨年会暨新品发布会在北京举行，以“开发太阳能，造福全人类”的伟大实践和追求助力全球能源结构调整和绿色低碳转型。

中国能源研究会常务理事李俊峰在致辞环节提到，近日结束的COP 28上达成了一个重要协议，到2030年可再生能源的发电装机规模要增长三倍。今年全球可能突破150-170个国家安装光伏，光伏市场仍在增长，几乎所有国家都在坚定不移推动发展转型和能源转型，这一点是大家坚定信心的一个基础。在光伏发展的这30年里，一直处于正增长，且没有低于两位数增长的年份，即使是在金融危机和“531”时期，也没有低于两位数的增长。

他强调，光伏行业的不断增长是来之不易的。疫情期间，几乎所有行业都遇到了各种不同挑战，而光伏业发展欣欣向荣。目前光伏业的恐慌氛围并非市场所致，而是自身造成的。去年今日，光伏价格约2元/W，6月份1.6元/W，9月份价格降至1元/W，今年有可能低于9毛。市场都是买涨不买跌，我们回馈社会，不仅仅是要降低成本做到比化石能源便宜，技术进步的同时也要为当地留下投资或者其他价值。

“如果一个电站每年发电量里面留下1毛钱，比如像内蒙，如果搞到4000亿光伏发电的时候，为全国做出的贡献，并且可以达到400亿的收入，对政府来讲是非常美好的事情，为什么要做到1毛钱甚至更低呢？这对用户没有价值，对地方政府没有价值，对我们自己也没有价值。” CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

李俊峰还特别提到，中央经济工作会议提出鼓励有效益的投资。降低成本并不是都值得大家欢喜的事情，一定要适可而止，而非无限低价，零成本、零电价这不仅会削弱投资价值也会降低投资效益。无限降低成本并非是别人强迫给我们的，我们不能把自己的路走死。

最后他表达了对于光伏行业未来的发展的期许，希望大家坚定信心，光伏有美好的未来，人类有美好的未来。我们每一个人要做有价值的事情，包括我们的投资。

附会议速记（未经本人审核）：

李俊峰：作为一个老兵，新年给大家讲几点事情。现在大家又觉得哀鸿遍野，我给大家提振一下信心，坚定我们的理想，树立我们的信心。

我讲三方面的内容。

怎么看待全球的光伏市场？刚才孙晓先生讲了气候变化，我讲得更务实一些，刚刚在迪拜结束的COP 28达成一个非常重要的协议，到2030年可再生能源的发电装机发电能力要增长三倍。什么概念？大体上现在全球可再生能源是2000GW，到那时候是6000GW，光伏按照基数2022年的数字，2022年全球范围内大概是1300GW，其它的可再生能源涨得没有那么快，风电也在涨，没有那么快，水电基本零增长，增长非常之慢。光伏按照平均的速度长，我们那时候差不多4000G才能够实现这个目标，还剩下6年时间，一除每年是多少就清楚了。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

这个市场是在这儿的，并且这件事情并不是说大家三心二意，很多人讲，在应对气候变化问题上，很多人说得多、做得少。其实在其它方面有可能是如此，但是在利用光伏等可再生能源推动发展转型这个角度，或者能源转型角度，每一个国家害怕自己做得少，都希望自己做得更多一点。靳保芳先生说做光伏30年，30年前卖光伏1瓦1瓦数，后来几个千瓦，后来几个兆瓦，我刚才和爱青开玩笑，五年前谁说搞50GW觉得吹牛，现在不搞个50个GW没脸见人了，这个规模起来了。不是中国一家起来，现在全球100多个国家，今年可能突破150—170个国家都在安装光伏，市场存在的，并且市场在不断增长，并且所有人都认识到这一点，几乎所有国家都在坚定不移推动发展转型和能源转型，这一点是大家坚定信心的一个基础。我们做这个行业是非常幸运的，没有任何一个产品，靳保芳先生回去给你们上课，他会讲任何一个产品他看到过吗？连续30年一直正增长，并且没有低于两位数增长的年份，包括金融危机的时候，包括531的时候，都没有低于两位数的增长。在这种条件下，我们有什么不坚定信心呢？这是第一个问题。

第二个问题，我们为什么出现了这样的问题？在全球光伏市场不断增长的条件下，这个增长是来之不易的，因为全球疫情之后各个方面碰到了挑战，几乎各行各业恢复性增长，甚至有些是下降，有些是停滞的，只有这个行业欣欣向荣。我们为什么产生恐慌？大家想这么一个道理，一个简单的道理，这种恐慌的气氛不是市场造成的，是我们自己造成的。在去年这个时间我们的光伏还差不多是2元/瓦，今年6月份还是1.6元/瓦，9月份降到1元/瓦，今年有可能低于9毛钱，为什么这样？好多人说这是市场，我说这不是市场，那些消费者们、欧洲的经销商们特别反对这件事情，我们为什么这样做？我刚刚卖出去2块钱/瓦，你为什么卖9毛钱？是不是要退回来1.1元，市场都是买涨不买跌，我们为什么不向其它行业学习？

所有行业都是在增长的时候涨价，汽车好卖的时候，比方说日本的阿尔法120万，提车今天拿，加40万、30万拿走，要不然等半年。他们有没有能力？有能力。我们要回馈社会，我们不仅仅是降低成本，我们降低成本的目的要比化石能源便宜，现在已经明显比化石能源便宜了，比如说全国的燃煤发电大概平均4毛钱左右上网电价，燃料成本接近3毛钱，我们不要考虑其它投资成本，就是我们的光伏按照它的燃料成本去算，3毛钱好不好？我们为什么拿到1毛钱？

你们经常批评地方政府，到这里搞光伏项目一定要带着产业来，我十年前就提出来，我们的技术进步能不能留下一点投资或者技术进步的价值给地方？发电企业像汇能拿3毛钱，其中5分钱或1毛钱给地方，地方肯定欢迎你。如果一个电站每年发电量里面留下1毛钱，比如像内蒙，如果搞到4000亿光伏发电的时候，为全国做出的贡献，并且可以达到400亿的收入，对它来讲是非常美好的事情，为什么要做到1毛钱甚至更低呢？对用户没有价值，对地方政府没有价值，对我们自己也没有价值。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

中央这次经济工作会议有三件事情大家一定要注意，这也是我们坚定信心非常重要的基础。

第一，80年代90年代牢记一句话，小平同志讲的发展是硬道理，就是这么发展起来的，现在中央有一句话，新时代的硬道理是高质量发展。第二句话，稳中求进，现在是以进促稳，更好一些更稳一些，还要干得更快一些。最后一句话大家都没有关注到，在字里行间有一句话，中央说要鼓励有效益的投资。我们的投资没有效益，大家都不说好，有什么意义？我们搞一个电站是3毛钱的上网电价，地方政府高兴，你高兴，投资者高兴。如果降到1分钱，谁还支持去做这件事情？降低成本并不是一件大家都值得高兴的事情，一定要想到适可而止。我一直这么讲，一定适可而止，而不是说无限低的价格，零成本、零电价，零成本、零电价还有投资价值吗，还有投资效益吗？我讲的这句话，这些东西不是别人强迫给我们的，我们不能把自己的路走死。

你们年轻的经常开玩笑，说我们要走别人的路，让别人无路可走。我们千万不要走明天的路，让我们明天无路可走。希望大家坚定信心，光伏有美好的未来，人类有美好的未来。我们每一个人要做有价值的事情，包括我们的投资。

希望我们2024年更加美好，谢谢！ CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

翻译：

Li Junfeng, executive director of China Energy Research Society: Photovoltaic people can not walk the road to death by themselves, and enough is enough to reduce costs

On January 6, “To the mountains and the sea, WE come to the light” 2024 JA Ecological Friends Circle Annual Meeting and new product launch Conference was held in Beijing, with the great practice of “developing solar energy for the benefit of all mankind” and the pursuit of helping the global energy structure adjustment and green low-carbon transformation.

Li Junfeng, executive director of the China Energy Research Society, said in his speech that an important agreement was reached at the recently concluded COP 28 to triple the installed capacity of renewable energy by 2030. This year, the world is likely to break through 150-170 countries to install photovoltaic, photovoltaic market is still growing, almost all countries are unswervingly promoting development transformation and energy transformation, which is a basis for our firm confidence. In the 30 years of photovoltaic development, it has been in positive growth, and no less than double-digit growth years, even in the financial crisis and “531” period, there is no less than double-digit growth.

He stressed that the continued growth of the photovoltaic industry is hard-won. During the epidemic, almost all industries have encountered a variety of different challenges, and the photovoltaic industry is thriving. The current panic atmosphere in the photovoltaic industry is not caused by the market, but by itself. Today last year, the photovoltaic price was about 2 yuan /W, 1.6 yuan /W in June, and the price fell to 1 yuan /W in September, which is likely to be less than 9 cents this year. The market is buying up, not buying down, we give back to the community, not only to reduce the cost of fossil energy cheaper, technological progress at the same time to leave investment and other value for the local.

“If a power station leaves 10 cents of electricity per year, for example, like Inner Mongolia, if it makes 400 billion photovoltaic power generation, it makes a contribution to the country, and can reach 40 billion revenue, which is a very good thing for the government, why should it make 10 cents or even lower?” It has no value for users, it has no value for local governments and it has no value for ourselves.” CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Li Junfeng also mentioned that the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to encourage beneficial investment. Reducing costs is not something that is worth everyone’s joy, it must be enough, rather than unlimited low prices, zero costs, zero electricity prices, which will not only weaken the value of investment will also reduce investment efficiency. Infinite cost reduction is not forced on us, we can not kill our own way.

Finally, he expressed his expectations for the future development of the photovoltaic industry, and hoped that everyone would be confident that photovoltaic has a good future and mankind has a good future. Each of us has to do something worthwhile, including our investments.

Attached meeting shorthand (not approved by me) :

Li Junfeng: As a veteran, I would like to tell you a few things in the New Year. Now everyone feels that the country is full of sorrow, I give you a boost of confidence, strengthen our ideals, build up our confidence. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

I’m going to talk about three things.

How to view the global photovoltaic market? Just now, Mr. Sun Xiao talked about climate change, and I talked about it more pragmatically. The COP 28 just concluded in Dubai reached a very important agreement to triple the installed power generation capacity of renewable energy by 2030. What kind of concept? In general, now the global renewable energy is 2000GW, by then it is 6000GW, photovoltaic according to the base 2022 figures, 2022 worldwide is about 1300GW, other renewable energy is not rising so fast, wind power is also rising, not so fast, hydropower basic zero growth, growth is very slow. Photovoltaic in accordance with the average speed of long, we were then almost 4000G to achieve this goal, there are six years left, a year in addition to how much is clear.

The market is here, and this is not to say that everyone is half-hearted, many people say that on the issue of climate change, many people say more, but do less. In fact, this may be true in other aspects, but in the use of renewable energy such as photovoltaic to promote development transformation from this perspective, or from the perspective of energy transformation, every country is afraid of doing less, and hopes to do more. Mr. Jin Baofang said to do photovoltaic for 30 years, 30 years ago to sell photovoltaic 1 watt 1 watt, and then a few kilowatts, and then a few megawatts, I just joked with love Qing, five years ago who said that 50GW feel bragging, now do not make a 50GW face no one, this scale up. Not China alone, now more than 100 countries in the world, this year may break through 150-170 countries are installing photovoltaic, the market exists, and the market is growing, and everyone is aware of this, almost all countries are unswervingly promoting the development of the transition and energy transition, this is a basis for everyone’s firm confidence. We are very lucky to do this industry, there is no product, Mr. Jin Baofang will go back to teach you, he will talk about any product he has seen? It has been positive for 30 years in a row, and there have been no years of growth below double digits, including the financial crisis, including the 531, and there have been no years of growth below double digits. Under such conditions, why should we not have firm confidence? That’s the first question.

Second question, why do we have this problem? Under the growing conditions of the global photovoltaic market, this growth is hard-won, because after the global epidemic, all aspects encountered challenges, almost all walks of life to recover growth, and even some are declining, some are stagnant, and only this industry is thriving. Why are we panicking? We want to think of this truth, a simple truth, this atmosphere of panic is not caused by the market, it is caused by ourselves. At this time last year, our photovoltaic is still almost 2 yuan/watt, in June this year or 1.6 yuan/watt, in September down to 1 yuan/watt, this year may be less than 9 cents, why? Many people say this is the market, I say this is not the market, those consumers, European dealers are particularly opposed to this thing, why do we do this? I just sold it for $2 / watt. Why are you selling it for $9? Is it necessary to return 1.1 yuan? The market is buying up and not buying down, why don’t we learn from other industries?

All industries are in the growth of time, when the car is good to sell, for example, Japan’s Alpha 1.2 million, take the car today, plus 400,000, 300,000 away, or wait half a year. Are they capable? Have the ability. We want to give back to the society, we not only reduce the cost, we reduce the cost of cheaper than fossil energy, and now it is obviously cheaper than fossil energy, for example, the average coal-fired power generation in the country is about 40 cents, the fuel cost is close to 30 cents, we do not consider other investment costs, that is, our photovoltaic according to its fuel cost to calculate, How about three cents? Why did we get a dime? CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

You often criticize the local government, to engage in photovoltaic projects here must bring the industry to come, I proposed ten years ago, our technological progress can leave a little investment or technological progress value to the local? Power generation companies like remittance can take 3 cents, of which 5 cents or 1 cent to the place, the place will certainly welcome you. If a power station leaves 10 cents of electricity per year, for example, like Inner Mongolia, if it gets 400 billion photovoltaic power generation, it makes a contribution to the country, and can reach 40 billion of income, which is a very good thing for it, why do you want to do 10 cents or even lower? There is no value to users, no value to local governments, and no value to ourselves.

There are three things that we must pay attention to at this Central Economic Work Conference, which is also a very important basis for our firm confidence. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

First, in the 1980s and 1990s, remember a word, Comrade Xiaoping said that development is the hard truth, it is developed in this way, and now the central government has a word, the hard truth of the new era is high-quality development. The second sentence is to seek progress while maintaining stability, and now we are promoting stability through progress, making it better and more stable, and working faster. In the last sentence, which everyone has not paid attention to, there is a sentence between the lines, which says that the Central government will encourage efficient investment. Our investment is not profitable, and nobody says yes, what’s the point? We have a power station is 30 cents of electricity, the local government is happy, you are happy, investors are happy. If it comes down to a penny, who will support doing it? Reducing costs is not something that everyone should be happy about, and we must think of enough. I have always said this, must be enough, rather than saying that unlimited low prices, zero cost, zero electricity, zero cost, zero electricity still have investment value, and investment efficiency? I said this sentence, these things are not forced to us by others, we can not walk our own way to death.

You young people often joke that we have to go the way of others, so that others have no way to go. We must not take the road of tomorrow, let us have no way to go tomorrow. I hope everyone has firm confidence that photovoltaic has a bright future and mankind has a bright future. Each of us has to do something worthwhile, including our investments.

Hope we have a better year in 2024, thank you!

由CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）转载而成，来源于光伏們；编辑/翻译：CXO UNIONCXO联盟小U。

如需加入CXO UNION（CXO联盟）高管社群，请联系社群小伙伴哦~

免责声明: 本网站(http://www.cxounion.cn/)内容主要来自原创、合作媒体供稿和第三方投稿，凡在本网站出现的信息，均仅供参考。本网站将尽力确保所提供信息的准确性及可靠性，但不保证有关资料的准确性及可靠性，读者在使用前请进一步核实，并对任何自主决定的行为负责。本网站对有关资料所引致的错误、不确或遗漏，概不负任何法律责任。

本网站刊载的所有内容(包括但不仅限文字、图片、LOGO、音频、视频、软件、程序等) 版权归原作者所有。任何单位或个人认为本网站中的内容可能涉嫌侵犯其知识产权或存在不实内容时，请及时通知本站，予以删除。