【CEO访谈】隆基绿能中国地区部总裁刘玉玺：可靠性与技术领先在未来竞争中更加重要

产业链全线亏损对企业来说是无法持续的状态。

中国光伏行业或许正在遭遇有史以来规模最大的行业震荡。

从2023年下半年开始，光伏产业链价格不断下降。截至2024年5月，全产业链各个环节（硅料、硅片、电池片、组件）的市场价格都已经跌破成本价。光伏行业进入名副其实的“至暗时刻”。

而另一方面，光伏技术的迭代依然瞩目。5月7日，隆基绿能以27.30%，再次刷新单结晶硅光伏电池转换效率的世界纪录。晶硅技术向着自己的效率天花板又走进了一步。

面对动荡不定的市场和极强的不确定性，我们更需要冷静地思考和独特的视角。《能源》杂志为此特邀隆基绿能中国地区部总裁刘玉玺接受专访，畅谈产业链价格波动、光伏技术变革和未来趋势等话题。

Q：你如何看待2023年以来，产业链价格快速下跌的情况？

隆基绿能中国地区部总裁刘玉玺：目前来看，全行业对整个产业链价格非理性变化的判断，存在一定的偏差。这主要是连锁因素所导致的。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

首先是产业规模的增长速度超出预计。从历史经验来看，价格和供需的关系十分紧密。2020年之后，全球光伏产业的极速发展带动产业链规模的极速扩张，超出了所有人的预计。

目前我们判断，光伏产业链的价格已经基本达到了底部。从硅料到组件，几乎所有环节的价格都是亏损的。这对企业来说是一种无法持续的状态。

Q：在产业链价格不断下降的时候，产生了哪些问题？对行业发展，又有哪些有利的方面？

隆基绿能中国地区部总裁刘玉玺：随着产业链价格跌破成本线，很多乱象也随之出现。比如光伏产品以次充好、功率虚标，在招标阶段出现恶意低价、中标后不履约等等。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

现在有观点提出，很多企业在经营困难、产业链降价的阶段，会通过大幅度降低价格争取订单，保障企业的现金流。

但在价格击穿成本的情况下，这种做法实际上无法保障企业的正常现金流。而企业在拿到订单发现按照价格执行就会亏损之后，就会以各种理由拖延项目进度，这对项目的进展会造成实质性伤害。

值得称道的是，越来越多的业主在这一过程中开始变得越来越专业。作为电站的投资方和运营方，业主单位对于项目长时间的稳定运行十分关注。现在招投标过程中出现的乱象，实际上倒逼业主方更加关注产品的技术参数和细节。

Q：未来的光伏项目招标，还有待完善的地方？

隆基绿能中国地区部总裁刘玉玺：隆基绿能董事长钟宝申在今年两会上提到，光伏组件招标过程中‘唯价格论’现象严重。一些企业为了生存，在报价时进入非理性状态，影响了新能源发电行业高质量发展。

现在，很多央国企都采取了设备“集采”的模式。这一方法有效地降低了企业的沟通成本，公平性更强。不过在“集采”的具体操作中，还有需要完善的空间。比如，价格分和技术分如何设置？如何通过技术更好地将不同企业的产品实力区分开来？这些问题不解决，可能“不合理的低价中标”问题依然存在。

随着低价中标在实际履约中产生的低质低价问题逐步凸显，目前在诸多行业（包含部分组件）招投标的价格评分中，已逐渐以“合理中标靶心法”（简称“靶心法”）代替了最低价法。靶心法可以杜绝低价中标现象，给中标人保留合理的利润空间，也维护合理的招投标秩序，从而提升高质量项目实施的成功率。

Q：当前的集中式光伏项目中，哪些要素对于业主来说十分关键？

隆基绿能中国地区部总裁刘玉玺：当前光伏项目面临的核心问题，就是收益减少，或者说未来收益的不确定性。2020年光伏全面进入平价时代，现在马上又要进入市场化时代。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

市场化的环境中，部分区域峰谷电价价差较大，再加上土地、环境等各种因素的制约和非技术成本的上涨，综合评估项目的收益率压力会越来越大。

在这样的背景下，光伏产品的可靠性开始越来越多地受到关注。在利润时期，可靠性对于项目有时候会显得并不重要，但现在光伏产品的可靠性在集中式项目里的重要性就会非常凸显。

另一个被重视的要素是产品的技术领先性，特别是针对不同场景的产品技术。当前，光伏行业正处在技术变革的关键时期。大家往往会把更多的目光投向电池技术，而忽略了对光伏应用场景的研究。实际上，除了集中式、工商业、户用这些场景大类之外，还需要细分防积灰、载荷强、透光率好、正面背面效率、防潮湿等多种不同的应用场景对产品技术的差异化需求。比如，在海上光伏市场被逐渐开发之后，具备高防腐蚀等特性的产品就会备受青睐。可以说目前行业内对不同场景需求下的技术差异，往往是被忽视的。

Q：也就是说光伏市场正在走向场景技术细分的阶段吗？

隆基绿能中国地区部总裁刘玉玺：是的。5月7日，隆基绿能自主研发的背接触晶硅异质结太阳电池（HBC）光电转换效率达到27.30%，Hi-MO 9组件转换效率高达24.43%。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

我们相信，目前已经可以明确BC是晶硅技术的终极天花板。隆基的HPBC二代电池应该是晶硅技术路线上很难被超越的一代产品。

那么，在效率已经坚定的情况下，无论是针对产品的可靠性，还是更好地适应使用场景，都需要我们在产品细分上做出更多的努力。

2022年11月，隆基推出Hi-MO 6分布式专属组件；2023年10月，推出Hi-MO X6防积灰组件；2024年2月，推出Hi-MO X6耐湿热组件……即将到来的SNEC展，也将针对集中式地面电站发布全新的定制化组件。这一系列细分场景化组件产品的推出，表现出我们对终端应用市场需求的高度关注和深刻理解。

Q：您如何看待未来光伏市场的增长空间？

隆基绿能中国地区部总裁刘玉玺：全球市场会继续保持一定增速，也会保持理性区间。欧洲、北美和亚太地区的新能源增长潜力依然巨大，中国企业出海会有很多的机会。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

就中国市场来说，和前几年的爆发式增长相比，未来的增速可能会相对较低。但有一点是明确的，现在产业链的困难都是暂时性的，即便是产能过剩，也是有限制条件的产能过剩。从光伏长远发展来看，光伏的产能，尤其是先进产能还远远不够。

明后年光伏产业链价格能否恢复，主要取决于落后产能的出清程度。低于成本价的情况一定不会持续下去。尽管这段时间对于行业产生了一定的负面影响，但经过这一轮的洗牌坚守下来的企业会在技术上更加突出，业主也会对技术和专业化有更多的倾向性。这会让光伏行业未来继续保持一种蓬勃、健康的发展态势。

——正文完——

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翻译：

Liu Yuxi: Reliability and technological leadership are more important in the future competition

​​The loss of the entire industrial chain is an unsustainable state for enterprises.

​China’s photovoltaic industry may be experiencing its biggest industry shock ever.

​Starting from the second half of 2023, the price of the photovoltaic industry chain has been declining. As of May 2024, the market price of all links of the whole industry chain (silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries, components) has fallen below the cost price. The photovoltaic industry has entered the veritable “darkest moment”.

​On the other hand, the iteration of photovoltaic technology is still attracting attention. On May 7, Longi Green Energy renewed the world record for the conversion efficiency of single crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells with 27.30%. Crystalline silicon technology has taken another step toward its own efficiency ceiling. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

​In the face of volatile markets and extreme uncertainty, we need calm thinking and a unique perspective. To this end, “Energy” magazine invited Liu Yuxi, president of Longi Green Energy China Region, to accept an interview and talk about the price fluctuations of the industrial chain, photovoltaic technology changes and future trends.

​Q: How do you view the rapid decline in the price of the industrial chain since 2023?

​Liu Yuxi: At present, there is a certain deviation in the judgment of the whole industry on the irrational change of the price of the entire industrial chain. This is mainly caused by chain factors.

​The first is that the size of the industry is growing faster than expected. Historically, prices have been closely linked to supply and demand. After 2020, the rapid development of the global photovoltaic industry has driven the rapid expansion of the industrial chain scale, exceeding all expectations.

​At present, we judge that the price of the photovoltaic industry chain has basically reached the bottom. From silicon to components, almost all aspects of the price is a loss. This is an unsustainable state of affairs for business.

​Q: When the price of the industrial chain continues to decline, what problems have arisen? What are the favorable aspects for the development of the industry? CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

​Liu Yuxi: With the price of the industrial chain falling below the cost line, a lot of chaos also appeared. For example, photovoltaic products are shoddy, power virtual, malicious low prices in the bidding stage, and non-performance after winning the bid.

​Now there are views that many enterprises in the business difficulties, the industrial chain price reduction stage, will significantly reduce the price to win orders, to protect the cash flow of enterprises.

​However, in the case of price breakdown costs, this approach can not actually guarantee the normal cash flow of enterprises. After the company gets the order and finds that it will lose money if it executes according to the price, it will delay the project progress for various reasons, which will cause substantial harm to the progress of the project.

​To their credit, more and more owners are becoming more and more professional in this process. As the investor and operator of the power station, the owner is very concerned about the long-term stable operation of the project. Now the chaos in the bidding process, in fact, forced the owner to pay more attention to the technical parameters and details of the product.

​Q: What remains to be improved in the future bidding for photovoltaic projects?

​Liu Yuxi: Zhong Baoshen, chairman of Longi Green Energy, mentioned at this year’s two sessions that the “price-only” phenomenon in the bidding process of photovoltaic modules is serious. In order to survive, some enterprises enter an irrational state when quoting, which affects the high-quality development of the new energy power generation industry.

​Now, many central state-owned enterprises have adopted the “collection” model of equipment. This method effectively reduces the communication cost of enterprises and is fairer. However, in the specific operation of “collection”, there is still room for improvement. For example, how to set the price score and technology score? How to better distinguish the product strength of different enterprises through technology? If these problems are not solved, the problem of “unreasonable low bid” may still exist.

​With the low quality and low price problems caused by low price bidding in the actual performance of the contract, the lowest price method has been gradually replaced by the “reasonable bull ‘s-eye method” (referred to as “bull ‘s-eye method”) in the price scoring of bidding in many industries (including some components). Bull ‘s-eye method can eliminate the phenomenon of low price winning, retain reasonable profit margin for the winning bidder, and maintain reasonable bidding order, so as to improve the success rate of high-quality project implementation.

​Q: What elements are critical for owners in current centralized PV projects?

​Liu Yuxi: The core problem facing the current photovoltaic projects is the reduction of income, or the uncertainty of future income. In 2020, photovoltaic will fully enter the era of parity, and now it will enter the era of marketization.

​In the market-oriented environment, the difference between peak and valley electricity prices in some regions is large, coupled with the constraints of various factors such as land and environment and the rise of non-technical costs, the yield pressure of comprehensive evaluation projects will be increasingly large.

​In this context, the reliability of photovoltaic products has begun to receive more and more attention. In the profit period, reliability for the project sometimes appears not important, but now the reliability of photovoltaic products in the importance of centralized projects will be very prominent.

​Another factor that is valued is the technological leadership of the product, especially for different scenarios. At present, the photovoltaic industry is in a critical period of technological change. We tend to pay more attention to battery technology, while ignoring the study of photovoltaic application scenarios. In fact, in addition to the centralized, industrial and commercial, household use of these scenarios, but also need to subdivide anti-ash, strong load, good light transmission, front and back efficiency, moisture prevention and other different application scenarios of differentiated demand for product technology. For example, after the offshore photovoltaic market is gradually developed, products with high corrosion resistance and other characteristics will be favored. It can be said that the technical differences in the current industry under the requirements of different scenarios are often ignored. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

​Q: That is to say, the PV market is moving towards the stage of scene technology segmentation?

​Liu Yuxi: Yes. On May 7, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of the back-contact crystalline silicon heterojunction solar cell (HBC) independently developed by Longi Green Energy reached 27.30%, and the conversion efficiency of the Hi-MO 9 component was as high as 24.43%.

​We believe it is now clear that BC is the ultimate ceiling for crystalline silicon technology. Longi’s HPBC second-generation battery should be a generation of products that is difficult to be surpassed on the crystalline silicon technology route.

​Then, in the case of efficiency has been firm, whether it is for the reliability of the product, or better adapt to the use of scenarios, we need to make more efforts in product segmentation.

​In November 2022, Longi launched Hi-MO 6 distributed exclusive components; In October 2023, Hi-MO X6 anti-ash assembly was launched; In February 2024, the Hi-MO X6 moisture and heat resistance module was introduced… The upcoming SNEC show will also unveil new customized components for centralized ground power plants. The launch of this series of segmented scenario-based component products demonstrates our high attention and deep understanding of the needs of the end application market. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

​Q: How do you see the growth of the PV market in the future?

​Liu Yuxi: The global market will continue to maintain a certain growth rate, and will maintain a rational range. The potential for new energy growth in Europe, North America and the Asia-Pacific region is still huge, and there will be many opportunities for Chinese companies to go overseas.

​As far as the Chinese market is concerned, compared with the explosive growth in previous years, the future growth rate may be relatively low. But one thing is clear, the difficulties of the industrial chain are temporary, even if it is overcapacity, it is also overcapacity with limited conditions. From the long-term development of photovoltaic, photovoltaic production capacity, especially advanced production capacity is far from enough.

​Whether the price of photovoltaic industry chain can be restored next year or later mainly depends on the degree of clearance of backward production capacity. Below cost prices must not last. Although this period of time has had a certain negative impact on the industry, the enterprises that stick to this round of reshuffle will be more prominent in technology, and the owners will have more tendencies toward technology and specialization. This will allow the photovoltaic industry to continue to maintain a vigorous and healthy development trend in the future.

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本文由CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）转载而成，来源于界面智库；编辑/翻译：CXO UNIONCXO联盟小U。

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