【观点】华东政法大学教授徐明：资本市场未来发展的目标、方向和路径

近日，全球财富管理论坛•2023上海苏河湾大会在上海市静安区隆重召开。本次大会以“金融助力经济复苏与全球合作”为主题，广泛邀请了政府和金融监管部门、主权财富基金、国际与国内代表性金融机构和知名学者，围绕全球经济金融领域各方共同关心的议题展开深入交流，希望在当前复杂环境下持续增进国际间相互理解、信任与合作。华东政法大学教授徐明在“金融业未来趋势与发展展望”主题论坛上发表演讲。

小结

徐明从总体展望、目标和方向及路径三个方面详细阐述了对中国资本市场的发展思考。第一，总体展望而言，中国资本市场未来发展空间非常广阔，有以下五点理由支撑。一是我国国民经济发展长期向好，为资本市场发展提供根本动力；二是改革创新不断深化，为资本市场发展注入新动能；三是科技革命、生产变革为资本市场发展提供新支撑；四是财富管理的多样性需求为资本市场发展提供广阔空间；五是持续不断的对外开放，进一步提升我国资本市场国际竞争力和影响力。第二，中国资本市场发展的目标是要建立一个成熟的资本市场，方向是市场化、法治化和国际化。第三，资本市场未来发展的路径要围绕三条主线，处理好八对关系，服务实体经济是资本市场的根本目的，持续不断改革创新是资本市场发展的动力和源泉，防范化解市场风险是资本市场健康发展的基本前提。

结合会议主题，我发言的题目为“资本市场展望：目标、方向、路径”，谈三点看法。

一、资本市场总体展望：未来发展空间广阔

经过三十多年的发展，我国资本市场在市场规模、结构、质量和效率等方面都有了很大的进步。近年来，随着资本市场重要基础制度建设重大突破，改革红利持续释放，市场功能进一步提升，资本市场有利因素和条件不断积累，我国资本市场正在发生深刻的结构性变化，具备了服务高质量发展的能力和条件。展望资本市场未来，资本市场发展在下列几个方面面临重大机遇。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

一是我国国民经济发展长期向好为资本市场发展提供了根本动力。经过多年的发展，我国经济总体实力、科技能力和综合国力迈上了新的台阶。2022年，我国GDP已达到121.02万亿元，稳居世界第二。同时，我国是全球最大的消费市场、全球唯一全部工业门类齐全的国家。拥有庞大的市场主体和各种专业技术人才，具有强大的生产和研发能力，对促进全球要素资源整合创新，规模效应和集聚效应发挥作用巨大。目前，我国的经济正转向高质量发展阶段，重大改革创新在深入推进。这些因素都需要资本市场独特优势的发挥，资本市场的发展动力十足。

二是改革创新不断深化为资本市场发展注入了新的动能。我国经济社会尤其金融体制进行了一系列改革，提高金融体系、供给体系和需求体系的适配性是资本市场改革发展的重要内容，这些改革有利于更好地发挥资本市场配置资源、资产定价、缓释风险等功能，有利于加速要素资本化进程，使资本市场发展有了新的动能。

三是科技革命、生产变革为资本市场发展提供了新的支撑。新一轮科技和产业变革正在重构全球创新版图和全球经济结构。新产业、新业态、新模式不断涌现，为经济社会发展提供了新动能，也将涌现出更多创新主体和旺盛的融资、并购重组等资本需求。这些都需要切实发挥好资本市场的作用，促进资本形成，激发企业创新活力，推动科技创新创业成长壮大，助力实现科技、资本和实体经济高水平循环。

四是财富管理的多样性需求为资本市场发展提供了广阔的空间。随着我国经济的快速发展，我国社会居民的财富不断积累和对投资多样性要求增加，使资本市场为居民提供更丰富的金融产品和财富管理功能提供了巨大的空间。

五是持续不断的对外开放进一步提升了资本市场国际竞争力和影响力。近年来，处于经济金融对外开放前沿的资本市场更加主动地在制度设计、市场准入、中介服务、市场监管、投资者保护等方面不断完善双向开放制度，发挥更广泛的资源配置作用，持续加强开放条件下监管能力建设，积极参与国际金融治理，有利促进更高层次开放性经济发展。

但是，资本市场的未来在面临各种重大机遇的同时，也面临着不小的挑战。我国发展的内外部环境仍然面临着较大的不确定性，经济金融风险隐患仍然不容小觑，资本市场的结构性机制性问题仍然较为突出等，都是我们在资本市场的未来发展中所面临的挑战。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

总的来看，在党中央国务院的坚强领导下，资本市场各项改革持续稳步推进，市场发展正处在有利因素和条件不断集聚的过程中；同时，新冠疫情影响深远，国际政经形势复杂，“黑天鹅”和“灰犀牛”并存，国际金融脆弱性上升。我国资本市场仍面临多重因素影响，但长期向好趋势不改，未来发展空间广阔。

二、我国资本市场的目标和方向：目标是成熟市场，方向是市场化、法治化、国际化

我国资本市场未来发展的目标就是要建立一个成熟的资本市场，具体来说就是建立一个规范、透明、有活力、有韧性的资本市场。总体来看，经过三十多年的发展，我国资本市场初步具备了走向成熟市场的基本条件。注册制的全面实施和不断完善，促进市场化全面发展；资本市场结构优化，促进资本市场板块、层次、要素更加均衡；资本市场互联互通，促进资本市场进一步顺畅；资本市场法治环境和诚信状况的改善，促进资本市场软实力不断增强；资本市场金融科技不断运用，促进资本市场效率不断提高，我国的资本市场正在向市场化、法治化、国际化方向迈进。

一是要进一步加大市场化的力度。展望未来，资本市场的市场化应该体现在以下四个方面：功能健全、产品丰富。通过融资推动资本形成、通过交易促进价格发现、通过资产重组优化资源配置、通过资本转让实现投资回报。放松管制、加强监管。在不断市场化的过程中，减少行政许可、降低准入门槛，加强事中事后监管。归位尽责、强化约束。市场主体职责边界清晰，能够自觉按照各自的职责行使权利、履行义务，加强自我约束、主动承担责任，监管者能够处理好和市场主体之间的关系，监管者既不越俎代庖，也不推卸责任。信息公开、服务完善。市场规则公开透明，市场信息充分披露，监管行为公平公正。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

二是全面推进法治化。未来的资本市场需要更加重视法治的作用，自觉树立敬畏法治的价值取向，提高运用法治思维和法治方式解决市场问题的能力，把资本市场法治体系建设摆到更加突出的位置。做好资本市场监管工作，必须要做到敬畏法治，注重运用法治思维和法治方法，做到有法可依、有法必依、执法必严、违法必究。未来的法治化建设应当进一步建立完善的立法体系、司法体系和执法体系，法律基础制度全面稳定。形成成熟的法治理念、法治文化、法治环境。具有严格和高水平的监管执法和有较好的司法衔接与权利救济。

三是努力实现国际化。未来的资本市场应当全方位实现国际化。具体体现为五方面国际化，即：组织国际化。能够全面参与到资本市场的国际组织中并发挥重要作用。积极推广宣传中国资本市场，参与资本市场国际规则的制定，为中国资本市场争取更多的话语权。市场国际化。在目前境内外市场互联互通的基础上，研究探索与其他境外市场互联互通的必要性和可行性，进一步拓展资本市场的广度和深度。企业国际化。允许境外公司直接到境内市场上市，扩充两地市场同时挂牌上市，积极推动第二上市，加大境外市场上市公司在境内市场发行存托凭证力度等。产品国际化。针对境内外资本市场的关联程度和投资者的需求程度，增加设计相关跨境产品，不断满足不同类型、不同投资偏好投资者的需求。监管国际化。要进一步加强与境外监管机构和自律管理机构的合作，通过签订监管合作协议加强彼此之间的联系合作。

三、资本市场的路径：围绕三条主线，处理好八对关系

（一）仅仅围绕三条主线展开

展望资本市场未来，我国资本市场要在遵循资本市场一般规律的基础上，聚焦服务实体经济、深化金融改革、防范化解风险三条主线，走出一条具有中国特色的资本市场发展道路。

一是始终服务实体经济。服务实体经济是资本市场的根本目的。在资本市场未来发展中，要进一步发挥资本市场的基本功能，加大高质量企业上市力度，发挥资本市场的融资功能，多层次、多渠道、多方式地为企业发展筹措资金，为企业高质量发展创造条件。进一步发挥资本市场的价格发现功能，畅通进入关口和退出机制，促进各种资金聚焦企业发展，将PE、VC、产业发展基金、各路机构投资者资金投资到企业，使企业获得各相关投资机构的大力支持。进一步发挥资本市场的资源配置功能，促进企业资源整合，通过资本市场并购重组做大做优做强企业。进一步发挥资本市场风险对冲功能，在企业生产经营过程中，充分利用现货和期货衍生品市场特点，将现货和期货结合起来，兼收并蓄、综合使用，最大程度地降低企业因生产周期、市场环境等受到的冲击，避免企业生产所遇到的风险。

二是持续不断改革创新。持续改革创新是资本市场发展的动力和源泉。在资本市场未来发展中，应当始终贯穿着改革创新这条主线。改革创新要紧紧围绕着高质量发展实体经济，促进市场化、法治化、国际化建设，使我国资本市场走向成熟，成为一个规范、透明、开放、有活力、有韧性的资本市场。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

三是牢牢控制化解市场风险。防范化解风险是资本市场健康稳定发展的基本前提。在资本市场未来发展中，市场风险仍然存在，资本市场的“黑天鹅”和“灰犀牛”仍不可避免，认真总结既往的风险，汲取已发风险的经验和教训，提前预研、预判、预防，降低风险发生的概率和等级，及时处置市场风险，最大程度保证市场安全稳定，保护好投资者合法权益不受侵犯，使我国未来资本市场能够健康稳定高质量发展。

（二）着重处理好资本市场八对关系即要处理好

创新与风险关系，更加重视风险控制；要处理好虚拟经济与实体经济关系，防止资本脱实向虚；要处理好直接融资与间接融资关系，大力发展直接融资；要处理好市场硬件与市场软件关系，加强市场软环境建设；要处理好场内市场与场外市场关系，进一步规范场外市场；要处理好本土化与国际化关系，加快资本市场国际化步伐；要处理好上市公司大股东与中小股东关系，进一步保护中小股东合法权益；要处理好投资者权益被动保护与投资者权益自我保护关系，促进投资者主动保护自身权益。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

翻译：

Xu Ming, Professor of East China University of Political Science and Law: The goal, direction and path of the future development of the capital market

Recently, the Global Wealth Management Forum 2023 Shanghai Suhewan Conference was held in Jing ‘an District, Shanghai. With the theme of “Financial Support for Economic Recovery and Global Cooperation”, the conference has invited governments, financial regulators, sovereign wealth funds, representative international and domestic financial institutions and renowned scholars to conduct in-depth exchanges on issues of common concern to all parties in the global economic and financial field, hoping to continuously enhance international mutual understanding, trust and cooperation under the current complex environment. Xu Ming, professor of East China University of Political Science and Law, delivered a speech at the theme forum “Future Trends and Development Prospects of the Financial Industry”.

Brief summary

Xu Ming elaborated his thinking on the development of China’s capital market from three aspects:. Overall outlook, goal, direction and path. First, in terms of the overall outlook, the future development of China’s capital market is very broad, supported by the following five reasons. First, China’s national economy has been developing well for a long time, providing fundamental impetus for the development of the capital market. Second, the deepening of reform and innovation injected new momentum into the development of the capital market. Third, scientific and technological revolution and production reform provide new support for the development of the capital market. Fourth, the diversified demand of wealth management provides a broad space for the development of the capital market;

Fifth, continue to open up to the outside world to further enhance the international competitiveness and influence of China’s capital market. Second, the goal of the development of China’s capital market is to establish a mature capital market. With the direction of marketization, rule of law and internationalization. Third, the future development path of the capital market should focus on three main lines, handle the eight pairs of relations, serve the real economy is the fundamental purpose of the capital market, continuous reform and innovation is the driving force and source of the development of the capital market. And prevent and resolve market risks is the basic premise of the healthy development of the capital market. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

In accordance with the theme of the conference. The title of my speech is “Capital market Outlook: Goals, directions and paths”, and I will talk about three views.

First, the overall outlook of the capital market: the future development space is broad

After more than 30 years of development, China’s capital market has made great progress in market size, structure, quality and efficiency. In recent years, with the major breakthrough in the construction of important basic institutions of the capital market. The continuous release of reform dividends, the further improvement of market functions. And the continuous accumulation of favorable factors and conditions in the capital market. China’s capital market is undergoing profound structural changes, and has the ability and conditions to serve high-quality development. Looking forward to the future of the capital market. The development of the capital market faces major opportunities in the following aspects.

First, the long-term development of China’s national economy has provided a fundamental driving force for the development of the capital market.

After years of development, China’s overall economic strength, scientific and technological capabilities and comprehensive national strength have reached a new level. In 2022, China’s GDP has reached 121.02 trillion yuan, ranking second in the world. At the same time, China is the world’s largest consumer market and the world’s only country with complete industrial categories. With huge market players and a variety of professional and technical personnel, with strong production and research and development capabilities, it plays a huge role in promoting the integration and innovation of global factor resources, scale effect and agglomeration effect. At present, China’s economy is shifting to a stage of high-quality development, and major reform and innovation are advancing in depth. These factors need the unique advantages of the capital market to play, and the development of the capital market is full of momentum. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Second, the deepening of reform and innovation has injected new momentum into the development of the capital market.

China’s economy and society, especially the financial system, have carried out a series of reforms. Improving the compatibility of the financial system. The supply system and the demand system is an important part of the reform and development of the capital market. These reforms will help the capital market better play its functions of allocating resources, pricing assets and mitigating risks, accelerate the process of factor capitalization. And give new momentum to the development of the capital market.

Third, the scientific and technological revolution and the transformation of production have provided new support for the development of the capital market.

A new round of technological and industrial changes is reshaping the global innovation landscape and the global economic structure. New industries, new business forms and new models are emerging, providing new driving forces for economic and social development. There will also be more innovative entities and strong capital demand for financing, mergers, acquisitions and restructuring. All these need to give full play to the role of the capital market, promote capital formation, stimulate the innovation vitality of enterprises, promote the growth of scientific and technological innovation and entrepreneurship. And help realize a high-level cycle of science and technology, capital and the real economy.

Fourth, the diversified demand of wealth management provides a broad space for the development of the capital market.

With the rapid development of China’s economy, the wealth of Chinese social residents continues to accumulate and the demand for investment diversity increases. So that the capital market provides a great space for residents to provide more abundant financial products and wealth management functions.

Fifth, continuous opening up has further enhanced the international competitiveness and influence of the capital market.

In recent years, the capital market, which is at the forefront of economic and financial opening-up, has been more active in improving the two-way opening-up system in terms of institutional design, market access, intermediary services, market supervision and investor protection, playing a broader role in resource allocation, continuously strengthening regulatory capacity building under open conditions, and actively participating in international financial governance. It will help promote the development of an open economy at a higher level. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

However, the future of the capital market is facing a variety of major opportunities. But also faces a lot of challenges. The internal and external environment of our country’s development is still facing great uncertainty, hidden risks of economic and financial risks are still not to be underestimated, and structural institutional problems of the capital market are still prominent. All of which are challenges we face in the future development of the capital market.

In general, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee and The State Council. The reform of the capital market has been steadily promoted. And the market development is in the process of gathering favorable factors and conditions. At the same time, the impact of COVID-19 is far-reaching, the international political and economic situation is complex, “black swans” and “gray rhinos” coexist, and the international financial vulnerability is rising. China’s capital market is still facing the impact of multiple factors. But the long-term trend has not changed, and the future development space is broad.

Second, the goal and direction of China’s capital market: the goal is a mature market, the direction is marketization, rule of law, internationalization

The goal of the future development of China’s capital market is to establish a mature capital market, specifically to establish a standardized, transparent, dynamic and resilient capital market. Overall, after more than 30 years of development, China’s capital market has initially met the basic conditions for a mature market. The full implementation and continuous improvement of the registration system to promote the comprehensive development of the market; The structure of the capital market will be improved, and the sectors, levels and elements of the capital market will be more balanced.

Capital market connectivity to facilitate smoother capital markets; The improvement of the legal environment and integrity of the capital market promotes the continuous enhancement of the soft power of the capital market; The continuous use of financial technology in the capital market has promoted the continuous improvement of the efficiency of the capital market, and China’s capital market is moving towards the direction of marketization, rule of law and internationalization.

First, we need to further increase market-oriented efforts.

Looking forward to the future, the marketization of the capital market should be reflected in the following four aspects:. Sound functions and rich products. Promote capital formation through financing, promote price discovery through transactions, optimize resource allocation through asset reorganization, and realize investment returns through capital transfer. Deregulate and strengthen supervision. In the process of continuous marketization, we will reduce administrative licensing, lower the entry threshold, and strengthen in-process and post-event supervision. Return to duty, strengthen constraints. Market entities have clear responsibility boundaries, can consciously exercise their rights and fulfill their obligations in accordance with their respective responsibilities, strengthen self-restraint, and take the initiative to assume responsibilities. Regulators can handle the relationship between market entities, and regulators neither overreach nor shirk responsibilities. Open information, perfect service. Market rules are open and transparent, market information is fully disclosed, and regulatory actions are fair and just.

Second, comprehensively promote the rule of law.

The future capital market needs to pay more attention to the role of the rule of law, consciously establish the value orientation of respecting the rule of law, improve the ability to use the rule of law thinking and method to solve market problems.And put the construction of the rule of law system in the capital market in a more prominent position. To do a good job in capital market supervision, we must respect the rule of law, pay attention to the use of the rule of law thinking and methods, and ensure that there are laws to be followed, laws to be followed, law enforcement to be strict, and violations of the law will be prosecuted. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

The future construction of the rule of law should further establish a sound legislative system, judicial system and law enforcement system, and the legal foundation system is comprehensively stable. Develop a mature concept, culture and environment for the rule of law. It has strict and high level of supervision and law enforcement and has better judicial cohesion and right relief.

Third, strive for internationalization.

The future capital market should be fully internationalized. It is embodied in five aspects of internationalization, namely: organization internationalization. Be able to fully participate in the international organization of the capital market and play an important role. Actively promote and publicize China’s capital market, participate in the formulation of international rules for the capital market, and strive for more voice for China’s capital market. Market internationalization. On the basis of the current interconnection between domestic and foreign markets. We will study and explore the necessity and feasibility of interconnection with other overseas markets. And further expand the breadth and depth of the capital market. Enterprise internationalization.

Allow overseas companies to directly list in the domestic market, expand the listing of both markets at the same time, actively promote the secondary listing, and increase the efforts of listed companies in overseas markets to issue depositary receipts in the domestic market. Product internationalization. According to the correlation degree of domestic and foreign capital markets and the demand degree of investors. We will increase the design of relevant cross-border products. And constantly meet the needs of different types of investors with different investment preferences. Internationalization of regulation. It is necessary to further strengthen the cooperation with overseas regulators and self-regulatory agencies. And strengthen the contact and cooperation between them through the signing of regulatory cooperation agreements. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Third, the path of the capital market: around the three main lines, handle the eight pairs of relations

(1) It revolves around only three main lines

Looking forward to the future of the capital market, China’s capital market should follow the general laws of the capital market, focus on serving the real economy, deepening financial reform, preventing and resolving risks, and walk out of a capital market development road with Chinese characteristics.

First, we have always served the real economy.

Serving the real economy is the fundamental purpose of the capital market. In the future development of the capital market, it is necessary to further exert the basic function of the capital market, increase the listing of high-quality enterprises, give play to the financing function of the capital market, raise funds for the development of enterprises in multiple levels, multiple channels and multiple ways, and create conditions for the high-quality development of enterprises. Further give play to the price discovery function of the capital market, smooth the entry and exit mechanism, promote all kinds of funds to focus on the development of enterprises, invest PE, VC, industrial development funds. And institutional investors’ funds into enterprises. So that enterprises can obtain strong support from relevant investment institutions.

Further give play to the resource allocation function of the capital market, promote the integration of enterprise resources. And make enterprises bigger, better and stronger through mergers and acquisitions in the capital market. Further give play to the risk hedging function of the capital market, in the production and operation process of enterprises, make full use of the characteristics of the spot and futures derivatives market, combine the spot and futures, absorb and use comprehensively, minimize the impact of the production cycle and market environment on enterprises, and avoid the risks encountered in the production of enterprises. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Second, continuous reform and innovation.

Continuous reform and innovation is the driving force and source of the development of the capital market. In the future development of the capital market, reform and innovation should always run through the main line. Reform and innovation should focus on high-quality development of the real economy, promote marketization, rule of law, and internationalization. So that China’s capital market will mature and become a standardized, transparent, open, dynamic and resilient capital market.

Third, firmly control and defuse market risks.

Preventing and defusing risks is the basic premise for the healthy and stable development of the capital market. In the future development of the capital market, market risks still exist. And the “black swan” and “gray rhinoceros” of the capital market are still inevitable. Carefully summarize the past risks, learn from the experience and lessons of the risks that have been issued, advance research, prediction and prevention, reduce the probability and grade of risk occurrence, timely dispose of market risks, and ensure market safety and stability to the greatest extent. To protect the legal rights and interests of investors from infringement. So that China’s capital market can develop healthily, steadily and of high quality in the future.

(2) Focusing on the eight pairs of relations between the capital market should be handled well

Innovation and risk relationship, pay more attention to risk control;. It is necessary to deal with the relationship between virtual economy and real economy. And prevent capital from turning from real to virtual. We should deal with the relationship between direct financing and indirect financing, and vigorously develop direct financing. We should deal well with the relationship between market hardware and market software and strengthen the construction of market soft environment. It is necessary to deal with the relationship between the inner market and the outer market. And further regulate the outer market. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

It is necessary to deal with the relationship between localization and internationalization. And accelerate the pace of internationalization of capital market. It is necessary to deal with the relationship between major shareholders and minority shareholders of listed companies. And further protect the legitimate rights and interests of minority shareholders;. It is necessary to deal with the relationship between passive protection of investors’ rights and interests and self-protection of investors’ rights and interests. And promote investors to actively protect their own rights and interests.

本文由CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）转载而成，来源于中国财富管理50人论坛；编辑：CXO UNIONCXO联盟小U。

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