【观点】读懂德鲁克：只有好的组织，才能有好的社会

一、德鲁克理论渊源、时代背景及体系概括

德鲁克的思想源头和基础，是西方源远流长的个人主义、保守主义和自由主义。前两者亦可归入广义的自由主义范畴。自由主义承继了基督教传统，强调个人自由、权利、尊严，经过文艺复兴、启蒙运动、工业革命，成为西方主流思想，在政治、社会、经济等领域均取得成果。而奥地利学派是自由主义经济学的高峰。自由主义和中国传统文化相容性较小，其学理与大众所理解的平等相去甚远，因此我国大部分企业很难理解和践行德鲁克思想（这与日本形成反差）。但这并不妨碍我们从一般组织及管理角度学习、借鉴德鲁克理论。

德鲁克理论思想的生成，有两个大的社会和时代背景。这两个背景也是他观察、分析的对象。正因如此，他才自称为社会生态学家。一个背景是社会生产力体系的重大变化：工业革命、知识进步和信息革命等。另一个背景是生产关系和社会体制的变化，包括市场经济以及德鲁克近距离观察的德国纳粹体制等。这两个背景是相互作用的。在对这两个背景的分析中，德鲁克的重要思想有“工业人的未来”、“知识社会”、“不确定及非连续时代”、“后资本主义时代”等。

工业文明和市场经济两大背景下，人类社会第一次出现了不同于以往的新型共同体和组织形态：工商企业。德鲁克从自由主义立场和人本、人文角度关注这一社会细胞，并使之成为终身的研究对象（后期将研究范围拓宽至非政府组织等）。对现代组织的研究，韦伯（科层制）、巴纳德（组织协同）、马奇（组织决策）、西蒙（有限理性）、明茨伯格（组织结构）、科斯（组织边界）、威廉姆森（治理结构）等有重大贡献。而德鲁克则是奠基人和集大成者。

德鲁克对组织的研究，集中在两个方面：一是组织和社会的关系，二是个人和组织的关系。德鲁克认为，组织是社会的有机组成部分，良性、健康、运转和谐、符合人性的社会，必然由满足这些要求和条件的组织所构成。通俗地说，只有好的组织，才能有好的社会。而组织由个体所组成，个体价值需要在组织中体现，个体和组织的相互关系也就成了良性社会的核心问题。由于组织必然伴随着管理（后者是前者的充分必要条件及属性），因此德鲁克将管理作为社会器官（其实是说社会功能）而研究它。正因为德鲁克从社会角度俯瞰组织及管理，所以他并不把自己定位为管理学家。

德鲁克构建了现代组织及管理理论的庞大体系和结构。当代管理学的战略理论、营销理论、企业文化理论、领导理论以及组织行为理论，都可以从德鲁克理论体系中找到源头。

德鲁克的组织和管理理论，可以从3个方面进行概括：第一，关于组织的基本规范；第二，关于企业成长；第三，关于管理行为。下面我们分别介绍。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

二、基本组织规范理论

德鲁克对组织的性质、功能作了一系列基础性定义。这些定义今天看来，似乎已是常识，但在当时却是石破天惊。对于组织，政治经济学家关注其中的利益关系以及资本与劳动的冲突，西方主流经济学干脆把企业组织封闭起来仅作“理性人”假设。德鲁克认为，企业组织是一种责任组织，创造顾客价值是企业存在的基本理由。组织的最高责任，亦即组织的使命，除了创造顾客价值外，还要使自身富有前途——这里有组织成长的意味，同时使员工富有成就——这里强调个人价值与组织价值统一，体现了人的发展。德鲁克的名言“组织的使命在于使平凡的人做出不平凡的事”，既表明了以人为目的之理念，也揭示了组织的协同效应。

德鲁克的组织责任、使命理论，超越了狭隘的利润最大化理念，把组织目的扩展到相关利益主体。同时，德鲁克认为，企业责任包含社会责任，企业应该为社会进步作出贡献。只有这样，我们的社会才能良性而美好。德鲁克是“社会公民”这一概念最早的倡导者之一。

按照自由主义理念，个人价值是组织价值的前提。德鲁克始终关注组织中的普遍人，关注他们在组织中的尊严，关注他们的作用。企业中没有什么天才，每一个人都有缺点，都是“有限理性”。企业需通过合作避免个体缺点，发挥个体长处，以中和之道实现组织理性。

以人为本，并不意味着不重视组织绩效。德鲁克非常强调成果（人之发展也是成果之一），他认为组织的合作以共同的目标为纽带和机制。但是在订立目标以及实现目标时，应充分重视员工意见，并赋予员工较大的自主权。德鲁克所希翼的组织，是真正的为了共同目标的自由人共同体。

德鲁克认为，组织的核心是责任而非权力。他非常厌恶传统等级森严命令式组织，强调授权以及组织结构的扁平、弹性。他认为组织既要有统一性，又要有灵活性。在德鲁克命名的信息型组织中，他特别注重各个管理层级的融合、沟通和讨论，倡导任务型团队这样的组织形态。他认为，组织要像交响乐团一样，由专业人士组成，各负其责，但遵照统一的乐谱。在不确定环境下，有时乐谱无法事先确定，那就需要指挥和乐手共同探讨和创造。

今天，我们经常听到的一些概念，如知识/学习型组织、顾客参与的开放组织、动态适应的生态系统组织等，都可以在德鲁克的著作中发现源泉和路标。所以我说，他是时代以及所属组织的命名者，其理论的前瞻和宽阔，使之具有了开放性，使我们可以长久受到启发。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

三、战略理论

德鲁克管理理论体系第二部分的主题是企业成长。亦可称之为德鲁克战略理论。主要观点和理论架构（模型）如下：

一、企业的目的是创造顾客。市场经济条件下，通行的常识是顾客导向、需求导向。德鲁克将其在战略认知上升至需求和顾客创造，既解决了跟随需求无法领先的经营难题，又指明了企业成长的永久动力和基本方向。理解需求、超越需求、创造需求，成为最具创新性的企业家的行动指南。乔布斯就认为，不要问顾客需要什么。他们没有见过火车，只会谈论马车如何改进。而我们要做的，就是给他们创造方便、安全、价廉、替代性和革命性的火车服务体系。正因为创造顾客理念及其对顾客价值的论述，德鲁克被誉为营销学的创始人。科特勒曾经趣言，如果他是营销学之父，德鲁克就是营销学的爷爷。

二、经营理论或事业理论。这就是我们非常熟悉的3个假设。第一个假设是关于企业目标和使命的假设。创造顾客价值的使命设定，包含着目标顾客及顾客价值定位，也包含着企业的战略意图和方向。它像一个灯塔，引领着企业前行。它是企业成长的原点和初心。当我们在前行中迷茫、焦虑、无解、遭遇障碍时，就要回到这一假设。第二个假设是企业所处外部环境的假设。环境有什么特征，将如何变化？环境中哪些因素对企业成长有重大影响？环境中有哪些机会和阻碍？我们如何适应环境，如何与环境互动以及如何改变环境？这些都是企业战略分析和制定时需考虑的重要问题。这一假设开启了由外而内战略分析的基础性框架，拓展了战略思考的外部空间。同时，环境与企业互动模式，也使企业成长有了进化的意味。目前，几乎所有的战略理论教科书，都从环境分析开始。第三个假设是关于企业优势、长处和核心能力的假设。为顾客创造价值，当然要了解、认知顾客价值，要对顾客价值作出定位。但仅仅这样是不够的。在某种程度上，更重要的是如何创造顾客价值，依靠什么创造价值。进而言之，如何开发、整合、利用多种资源实现价值目标和使命。这是由内而外的战略视角。德鲁克以目标、使命假设为核心，通过其他两个假设，形成战略分析的完整框架。许多企业至今还在运用这一框架，这就是理论的力量。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

三、战略特征和成长类型。德鲁克认为，战略是一种选择，是一种取舍。有时候不做什么比做什么更重要。战略是要整合所有的要素提高生产率，是一种长期性、系统性行为。从动态角度看，战略是对成长的管理。成长是需要管理的，它并不等同于增长。成长可能有3种情形：一是生产率和价值提升的增长，意味着内在力量和能力的成长；二是生产率未提高前提下的规模增长，即肥胖型成长（这是我国许多企业的通病，多年前被德鲁克说中了）；三是成长方向、方式不正确的癌症型增长，短期增长但使企业进入死亡陷阱。在现实中，这类例子比比皆是。例如商业模式不成立、不创造价值的烧钱模式，技术方向不正确的巨型投入模式，损害产业生态的零和博弈发展模式，骗取政府补贴的虚假业绩模式等。近几年我国新能源汽车、P2P金融、互联网共享经济等领域均有急步迈向死亡的案例。

四、创新和企业家精神。德鲁克继承了奥地利经济学家熊彼特的创新思想。熊彼特认为，创新是经济增长的动力，其形态包括产品创新、市场创新、技术创新等，创新本质在于改变原有的生产函数（资本、劳动、技术等生产要素整合、协同起来生成产出及增长）。德鲁克所言创新，是广义的创新，不仅包括技术创新，而且包括顾客价值创新、管理及组织创新等。德鲁克分析了几种创新的来源和途径，如源于意外的创新，源于“矛盾”（现实与期望、假设与结果之间的矛盾等）的创新，以及影响企业创新的人口、产业、文化、社会等宏观因素。德鲁克的创新思想对后来的企业及产业创新发展起了巨大的推动作用。目前，创新已经成为国家经济发展的最重要动因，而创新学已经成为一门显学。破坏性创新、颠覆性创新、爆炸性创新等新概念层出不穷。

谁来承担创新、完成创新呢？德鲁克指出，创新的主体是企业家。企业创始人、领导人及管理者并不一定是企业家。企业家是具有企业家精神的人。而企业家精神的内涵就是创新。企业家精神概念一出，迅速引发广大创业者的共鸣，它也成为企业领导人领导力模型中的最重要组成部分。德鲁克指出，企业家精神是一种观念，但更重要的是一种实践；企业家精神并不是个人化的人格特征，因此它并不是先天的，而是在实践中挖掘、培育、成长出来的。这和王阳明的知行合一思想是相通的。企业家精神未必企业领导者所独有，我们每个人都可以践行企业家精神。

五、不确定环境下的战略选择。作为社会生态学家，德鲁克关注社会及产业系统的变化，研究了许多产业的演变趋势。我印象较深的有《零售业的未来》等。德鲁克敏锐地发现了社会经济系统不确定性和非连续性，将其作为当代组织面临的主要挑战。怎么办呢？当然要创新，要变化，要在当下的环境中发现未来的因素。我们可能无法预测未来，但我们可以从已有的信息中知晓未来。我们当下所有的行动需要有未来的意义（现在为未来做事）。面对不确定，我们一方面要坚守使命和基本价值观，另一方面需贴近顾客，与顾客融合，发现顾客变化，与顾客共同变化。只要战略选择与顾客变化高度一致，我们就能越过不确定性的障碍。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

四、管理行为理论

德鲁克管理理论体系第三部分的主题是管理行为。1954年，《管理实践》出版，标志着管理学理论的诞生。工业革命和市场经济出现以来，工商企业成为社会组织的主要形态。第二次世界大战结束后，到了20世纪50年代，全球进入相对稳定的经济秩序，时代对系统研究管理提出了要求，德鲁克管理理论应运而生。记得他曾自豪地说过：在《管理实践》出版之前，管理好像是少数天才做的事，没有人学得会。我把管理变成一门学科。很大程度上，管理学是我发明的。作为管理学的奠基人，德鲁克对管理学的论述可以说是包罗万象的。我要谈几点体会。

一、管理的定义。德鲁克认为，管理是一种实践，最重要的不在知而在行。管理是学科但不是科学。正是这一定义，使一门心思将管理“科学化”的学院派们与德鲁克产生了差距。后来，明茨伯格将管理定义为实践、科学和手艺的交集。在德鲁克看来，管理是当今社会的伟大实践，是利用资源发展社会生产力的社会器官。既然是器官，管理需要从功能角度去理解，其任务在于创造超越个体或部分之和的整体成果。在《管理实践》中，德鲁克讲了三个石匠的寓言：为获取报酬求得生存的人不是管理者，把自己活儿干好甚至成为全国顶尖工匠的人不是管理者，而致力于建造整个大教堂的人才是管理者。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

对于管理的内容，德鲁克曾经列出了林林总总许多方面：确定目标，构建组织，沟通，授权，建立评价标准，培养人。我一直记得德鲁克最著名的话：管理是通过他人的工作来获取成果。管理者不能什么事都亲力亲为，需激发被管理者的潜能和积极性。德鲁克发出了至今仍震撼人心的呼吁：管理就是要成就他人！

德鲁克对管理的定义，包含着领导的内容。而领导行为蕴含着精神和道德因素。与中国圣人孔子有些类似，德鲁克一直强调要选用正直的领导人，要激发组织成员的善意。管理甚至是一种社会制度，它是文明的产物，也属于文明自身，体现了社会的基本信仰。职业经理人的出现，专门性管理活动的产生，让一直关注工业化以来组织冲突和社会诸多缺陷的德鲁克看到希望：善意的、合符人性的管理，是组织和社会良性运行的基石。实际上，德鲁克所有的管理学说，都是围绕人、人的尊严、人的发展展开的，体现了鲜明的个人本位。

德鲁克还从宏观层面探讨了管理的意义。一是社会资源配置角度。市场经济出现以后，人们普遍认为，看不见的手即交易机制能够使社会资源实现有效、均衡的配置。德鲁克认为，组织出现之后，管理在资源配置中也起到重要作用。这实际上意味着组织对市场的替代。著名商业史学家钱德勒把组织内部的调控机制称作看得见的手。诺贝尔经济学奖得主、制度经济学家科斯分析组织的边界时，也把市场机制和组织机制（管理）并列，两者视效率状况可以互换。二是社会道德角度。亦即管理的合法性角度。资本主义制度出现之后，赞扬者们一直宣称：个人自利产生了社会福利。刚进入学界的年轻德鲁克就不太认同，他对“工业人”的未来忧心忡忡。大约20多年后，德鲁克发现了个人利益和社会利益协调的桥梁，那就是管理。通过管理，使每个组织中的个人都有承担责任的意愿，都能为组织外部的顾客创造价值。个人的努力，增进着社会福利；个人责任和社会责任相互统一。正是认识到管理的社会意义，德鲁克才极其重视管理者的价值观，重视“博雅”之道。

二、博雅管理。德鲁克在晚年把管理定义为博雅的艺术。说实话，本人并不完全认同这一中文翻译，相比而言，邵明路先生所说的“自由的技艺”可能更贴近德鲁克的原意。由于中国文字字面意义的引导性和暗示性，人们一看到“博雅”就会联想到广博、雅致，而它们显得如此高端、如此精英。其实，德鲁克一再强调，管理与人格、知识没什么关系，人人都能学会。在我看来，“自由的艺术”有三层意思：一是自由的、个人主义的、人文关怀的理念。这里的核心是让他人自由。这一点前面已经说过。二是具体情境、场景下解决问题的动态性、机动性和实践的丰富性。用中国语言说，就是不拘一格。三是管理技艺学到较高程度，进入了庖丁解牛、行云流水的自由境界。自由是美的象证，是艺术的灵魂。德鲁克最终把管理归于艺术和自由，归于心灵的解放，使创新有了不竭的源泉。当然，从语言发生学角度，我并不反对博雅管理的概念。既然已经约定俗成，就继续遵从吧。

据我有限的观察，中国企业真正践行博雅管理的并不多。这里有企业所处成长阶段及竞争环境的原因，也有商业文明程度和文化传统的原因。当今环境下，更多企业施行的是高任务、高压力、高激励、高淘汰的高能文化（我概括为高能组织），这种法家式的绩效机制更有力量。长期权力文化熏陶下的管理者往往缺少尊重下属的雅量，而被管理者有的也缺乏自律心理。一些倡导儒家文化的企业，不是以个人为本，而是以集体为本；通过教化影响、控制员工思想，这和真正的博雅相去甚远。可能要等90后、00后成为企业的主体，博雅管理才有施行的土壤。美国著名的德鲁克研究者、德鲁克的好友和同事（克莱蒙特大学德鲁克—伊藤雅俊管理研究生院）马洽列洛认为，德鲁克的博雅思想在美国也“失落”了。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

三、目标管理。作为从事管理咨询实际工作的管理学创立者，德鲁克并不像某些空头、书斋式的管理学者那样，只谈一些迂阔、宏大的理念，只设计一些无实践意义的模型。他提出了许多简明、实用但意义重大的管理方法，目标管理就是其中之一。我个人认为，这是德鲁克对管理学的最大贡献，和泰勒的科学管理处于同一个层级。西方也有管理学者认为目标管理是管理学领域哥白尼式的革命。目标管理和人们通常理解的KPI管理不同，它强调的是员工自主管理：员工参与目标制定，对目标作出承诺，自主完成目标。德鲁克通过观察第二次世界大战期间，普通工人愿意为国家取得胜利承担责任的行为，对员工使命必达充满信心（他对人性的假设是积极的）。而管理者的主要任务在于激发员工承担责任的意愿，通过分权等为其完成职责创造条件。责任人，是德鲁克念兹在兹的核心管理概念。

目标管理，使员工个人理性和组织理性统一起来了。员工所承担、承诺的责任，是组织责任的一部分；员工自愿、自主的行为，是组织协同行为的组成部分。所谓心往一处想，劲往一处使。透过目标管理，德鲁克解决了组织悖论：个体和组织如何兼容。目标管理还有一个重要特点，是注重结果，注重系统的输出。这体现了德鲁克一以贯之的成果导向思想。中国企业家任正非、何享健、李东生等对此都十分欣赏，分别提出了胜利文化、打粮食文化以及绩效文化等。曾经在纽约大学和德鲁克共事过的戴明（在日本及全球享有盛名的质量管理大师）对目标管理不太以为然，他认为过程比结果更重要（PDCA戴明环兼顾结果和过程）。

目标管理在实施过程中，需注重组织内部的共识。而上下左右共识（包括目标，也包括实现目标的手段）需要构建共同的事实基础，需要有透明的信息环境，需要有充分的沟通。而欲使员工长期愿意承担责任，除了授权外，还要对其绩效有公正的评价。正因如此，德鲁克非常强调管理/领导者的正直。在我看来，这是目标管理有效实施的必要条件（充分条件是信息和数据）。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

德鲁克的目标管理（MBO）思想及方法，并不完全源于以人为本的价值观，也与对企业管理实践的观察有关。亨利•福特（老福特）不信任经理人，在他们身边安排密探。威权式的、监控型的管理几乎使公司破产（他的孙子，亨利•福特二世通过变革，才使公司起死回生）。与老福特做法相反的是通用汽车的分权管理。在通用汽车，上下级的权力分布，有点类似于负面清单：只要没规定由上级决定的，就是下级可以自主决策的。基于这样的对比，德鲁克主张组织是个社区，应由下而上地驱动，应该由自我进行控制；而非自上而下、外部控制、依靠命令运行。

就我的未必全面的观察，目标管理诞生后，一些传统企业并未真正实施，命令式的KPI方式仍是管理的主流。但到了20世纪70年代，一批科技型、知识型的企业涌现，如Inter、Oracle等，开始用OKR方法践行目标管理，谷歌等新晋企业更是把其运用到新的高度。目标管理传到中国，有点淮橘成枳的意味，大部分企业还是喜欢KPI方式。不过，自主管理在平台组织、自组织条件下，将会绽放出新的花朵。

四、卓有成效的管理者。《卓有成效的管理者》（原译《有效的管理者》）是一部影响千万管理者的伟大著作（1966年首版），许多人就是从这本书开始进入德鲁克世界的。本人也是，大概1998-1999年，我和包政、彭剑锋等一起在TCL集团做咨询项目，包老师巡回演讲“有效的管理者”，我听了若干次。这本书篇幅不大，10万字左右，文笔通俗，但并不易懂。很多人经常读，也没有做到“卓有成效”。

首先，何为管理者。第一，管理者是所有权和经营权相分离的产物。管理者不是股东（主要指控制人）私人代表，而是组织责任的担当者。管理者因责任而存在。第二，管理者未必是带团队者，一些知识型员工也是管理者。这和我们通常的理解不同。区分是否管理者的依据在于，他们是否通过决策对组织产生贡献。第三，管理者并非天资过人的天才，甚至可以说人人都是管理者。

其次，何为有效或者卓有成效。有效是指产生成果。管理必须产生成果。而成果出现、存在于企业外部，并不是内部。也就是说，检验成果的唯一标准是顾客价值。说到成果，德鲁克认为，它来源于机会，而且对企业来说往往分布于较少的领域，因此需要集中力量。管理者的有效性，是一种可以训练和学会的技能，是一种习惯（本人认为，这是最重要的）。需要指岀的是，德鲁克提出有效的管理者，与知识型员工出现以及壮大有关。这些人，一方面有了超越经济利益的动机和追求，另一方面不愿意被控制和摆布，希望有一定的自由空间。而成为卓有成效的管理者，可以实现他们的自我价值。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

再次，什么因素妨碍我们成为有效的管理者呢？管理者通常处于这样的情境（场景）中：时间被别人占用。就像我们团里的很多老板、高管，到办公室里坐下来刚想思考点重要问题，一会儿客户来电话了，一会儿有人来汇报、签字了。从空间角看，我们处于组织之中，习惯于关注内部问题，也经常为内部问题所拖累。此外，我们常常陷于当下的问题和困难之中，被一些矛盾纠缠着，无暇关注外部和成果。

最后，如何成为卓有成效的管理者呢？德鲁克提出了若干条建议。

第一，掌握自己的时间。时间是我们最重要、最稀缺的资源。管理者欲有成效，未必从工作出发，而要从时间入手。能委托别人干的事自己就不干，同时善于把碎片时间整合利用。

第二，经常问自己：我能贡献什么。这里的贡献，是对外部结果和业绩的贡献。没有贡献，管理者就没有存在价值。这就意味着，我们的工作重点在于不确定的市场以及顾客价值上。

第三，发挥人的长处。对他人、对自己都应如此。人性的本能，往往使人关注别人缺点；自我认知的盲区，往往使自己和短处较劲。充分发挥人的长处，能够事半功倍。德鲁克重视人际交往，但他强调：不必关注和别人关系如何如何，而是要注重对方能有什么贡献。这是基于理性的合作法则，而不是庸俗、矫情的谈关系、讲做人、重情商。喜欢不喜欢一个人并不重要，重要的是，他起什么作用。德鲁克用4句话概括了有效的人际关系：互相沟通，团队合作，自我发展，成就他人。 CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

第四，要事优先。德鲁克说，有效的管理者，要先做大事，不要去过问次要的事情。什么是重要的事情呢？是有利于未来、有利于机遇的事情。管理者要懂得放弃，假如某件事一开始就没有做，现在还会做吗？如果答案是否定的，那就不用做了。为什么有的管理者总是忙于眼前的、表面的事情，为什么总是在可能产生成果的未来和应付迫切需要解决问题的过去之间流连，是因为我们总是按组织内部压力安排工作次序。有效的管理者必须集中精力、专心致志，一次只做好一件工作。打算做一项新的业务时，一定要删除一项原有的业务。这简直就是对我们一些盲目多元化老板的当头喝棒。

五、决策要素。在《卓有成效的管理者》中，德鲁克用较多的篇幅谈了管理者如何决策。德鲁克概括了决策的5个要素：第一，了解问题的性质。经常出现的问题，通过制度、规范和原则去解决；而真正偶发的、例外的问题是很少的。因此有效的管理者并不时常都在决策。遇到新问题，需形成新假设，用科学方法来验证。第二，找出问题的边界条件。决策首先需明确目标，在此基础上了解决策所需依据的规范。边界条件就是实现目标的约束条件。我们需了解真正的约束（不能被虚假、模糊的边界所误导），同时需明确某项（些）约束的最低要求（底线）。就我的理解，边界就是目标值的必要影响因素。以外部边界为例，选择什么样的新业务，需求必须真实且有一定容量。以内部边界为例，欲从机会成长转向系统成长，缺不了组织体系。需研究正确的决策是什么，而不是能被人接受的折中方案。而折中是组织的通病。决策首先需要正确，其次才能考虑哪些地方可以变通、妥协。第四，决策方案兼顾执行措施，使决策变为可以被贯彻的行动。任何决策，都需回答谁了解、谁来做、应采取什么行动以及如何使之可执行、如何与执行者能力相匹配的问题。第五，决策过程中需要反馈，以验证决策是否有效和正确。用今天的话说，就是要不断迭代。

对于管理者的决策行为，德鲁克认为，决策通常不是在对与错中选择，而是在大概正确和可能错误中选择。决策的第一步，不是搜集事实，而是先有见解。这意味着先提出假设，然后再进行验证。验证时需要事实依据，但寻找事实时，需要有衡量、判断事实的标准。决策时，应尽可能列全多种方案，从中选出合适的方案。要重视反面意见，将之视作决策所需的另一方案。用任正非的话说，反面意见就是战略储备，企业需在战略管理层面设置蓝军机制。

翻译：

Read Drucker: Only good organization, can have a good society

Drucker’s theoretical origin, historical background and system summary

The source and foundation of Drucker’s thought is individualism, conservatism and liberalism which have a long history in the West. The first two fall into the broad liberal category. Liberalism inherited the Christian tradition and emphasized individual freedom, rights and dignity. Through the Renaissance, the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution, liberalism became the mainstream idea in the West and achieved achievements in political, social and economic fields. The Austrian school was the pinnacle of liberal economics. Liberalism is less compatible with traditional Chinese culture, and its academic principles are far from the equality understood by the public, so it is difficult for most enterprises in China to understand and practice Drucker’s ideas (which is in contrast to Japan). However, this does not prevent us from learning and drawing on Drucker’s theory from the perspective of general organization and management. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

The generation of Drucker’s theoretical thought has two major social and times backgrounds. These two backgrounds are also the objects of his observation and analysis. That’s why he calls himself a social ecologist. One background is the major changes in the productive systems of society: the industrial revolution, knowledge progress, and the information revolution. Another background is the changes in the relations of production and social institutions, including the market economy and the Nazi system in Germany, which Drucker observed closely. The two contexts interact. In the analysis of these two backgrounds, Drucker’s important thoughts include “the future of industrial man”, “knowledge society”, “uncertain and discontinuous era”, “post-capitalist era” and so on.

Under the background of industrial civilization and market economy, a new community and organizational form different from the past appeared for the first time in human society: industrial and commercial enterprises. Drucker paid attention to this social cell from the standpoint of liberalism, humanism and humanity, and made it a lifelong research object (later expanded the scope of research to non-governmental organizations, etc.). Weber (Bureaucracy), Barnard (organization coordination), March (organization decision), Simon (limited rationality), Mintzberg (organization structure), Coss (organization boundary), Williamson (governance structure) and so on have made significant contributions to the study of modern organization. And Drucker is the founder and the integrator.

Drucker’s research on organization focuses on two aspects: one is the relationship between organization and society, and the other is the relationship between individuals and organizations. Drucker believes that organization is an organic part of society, and a benign, healthy, harmonious and humanized society must be composed of organizations that meet these requirements and conditions. In popular terms, only good organizations can have a good society. The organization is composed of individuals, and the individual value needs to be reflected in the organization, and the mutual relationship between individuals and organizations has become the core issue of a benign society. Since organization is necessarily accompanied by management (the latter being a sufficient and necessary condition and attribute of the former), Drucker studied management as a social organ (in other words, a social function). Precisely because Drucker looked at organization and management from a social perspective, he did not define himself as a management scientist.

Drucker built the huge system and structure of modern organization and management theory. The strategy theory, marketing theory, corporate culture theory, leadership theory and organizational behavior theory of contemporary management can all find their source from Drucker’s theoretical system.

Drucker’s theory of organization and management can be summarized from three aspects: first, the basic norms of organization; Second, about the growth of enterprises; Third, management behavior. Here we introduce each.

Basic organization norm theory

Drucker made a series of basic definitions of the nature and function of organizations. These definitions may seem common sense today, but at the time they were groundbreaking. For the organization, political economists pay attention to the interest relationship and the conflict between capital and labor, and the western mainstream economics simply closes the enterprise organization and makes only the “rational man” assumption. Drucker believes that enterprise organization is a responsible organization, and creating customer value is the basic reason for the existence of enterprises. The highest responsibility of the organization, that is, the mission of the organization, in addition to creating customer value, but also to make their own future – here there is the meaning of organizational growth, while making employees rich achievements – here emphasizes the unity of personal value and organizational value, reflecting the development of people. Drucker’s famous saying, “The mission of an organization is to make ordinary people do extraordinary things”, not only shows the concept of human purpose, but also reveals the synergistic effect of organization. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Drucker’s theory of organizational responsibility and mission transcends the narrow idea of profit maximization and extends organizational purpose to relevant stakeholders. At the same time, Drucker believes that corporate responsibility includes social responsibility, and enterprises should contribute to social progress. Only in this way can our society be benign and beautiful. Drucker was one of the earliest advocates of the concept of “social citizenship.”

According to the liberal idea, individual value is the premise of organizational value. Drucker was always concerned with the general people in the organization, their dignity in the organization, and their role. There are no geniuses in business, and everyone has flaws and is “limited rationality.” Enterprises need to avoid individual shortcomings and give play to individual strengths through cooperation to achieve organizational rationality in a neutral way.

Putting people first does not mean that organizational performance is not valued. Drucker attaches great importance to results (human development is also one of the results), and he believes that the cooperation of organizations takes the common goal as the bond and mechanism. However, when setting goals and achieving goals, we should pay full attention to the opinions of employees, and give employees greater autonomy. The organization Drucker wanted was a true community of free men for a common goal.

Drucker believed that the core of an organization is responsibility, not power. He strongly disliked the traditional hierarchical and commanding organization, emphasizing delegation and flat, flexible organizational structure. He believes that organizations need to be both unified and flexible. In the information organization named by Drucker, he pays special attention to the integration, communication and discussion of various management levels, and advocates the organization form of task-based team. He believed that the organization should be like a symphony orchestra, composed of professionals, each with their own responsibilities, but following a unified score. In an uncertain environment, sometimes the score cannot be determined in advance, which requires the conductor and the musician to discuss and create together.

Some of the concepts we often hear about today, such as the knowledge/learning organization, the open organization of customer participation, and the dynamic adaptive ecosystem organization, can be found in Drucker’s work. Therefore, I say that he is the namer of the era and the organization to which he belongs, and his theory is forward-looking and broad, which makes it open, so that we can be inspired for a long time. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Strategic theory

The theme of the second part of Drucker’s management theory system is enterprise growth. It can also be called Drucker’s strategy theory. The main views and theoretical framework (model) are as follows:

1. The purpose of a business is to create customers. Under the condition of market economy, the common sense is customer-oriented and demand-oriented. Drucker raised his strategic cognition to demand and customer creation, which not only solved the business problem that could not lead by following demand, but also pointed out the permanent driving force and basic direction of enterprise growth. Understand needs, exceed needs, create needs, and become the action guide for the most innovative entrepreneurs. Don’t ask customers what they want, Steve Jobs said. They had never seen a train and would only talk about how the carriage could be improved. What we want to do is to create a convenient, safe, inexpensive, alternative and revolutionary train service system for them. Because of the concept of creating customers and the discussion of customer value, Drucker is known as the founder of marketing. Kotler once quipped that if he was the father of marketing, Drucker was its grandfather.

2. Management theory or career theory. These are the three assumptions that we are very familiar with. The first assumption is about the purpose and mission of the business. The mission setting of creating customer value includes target customers and customer value positioning, as well as the strategic intention and direction of the enterprise. It is like a beacon, leading the enterprise forward. It is the origin and initial intention of enterprise growth. When we are confused, anxious, unsolved, and encounter obstacles in our way forward, we have to return to this assumption. The second assumption is the assumption of the external environment of the enterprise. What are the characteristics of the environment and how will it change? What factors in the environment have a significant impact on business growth? What are the opportunities and obstacles in the environment? How do we adapt to our environment, how do we interact with it and how do we change it? These are important issues to be considered in the analysis and formulation of enterprise strategy. This hypothesis opens the basic framework of strategic analysis from the outside in, and expands the external space of strategic thinking. At the same time, the interaction mode between environment and enterprises also makes the growth of enterprises have the meaning of evolution. At present, almost all strategic theory textbooks begin with environmental analysis. The third assumption is about the firm’s strengths, strengths and core competencies. To create value for customers, of course, we must understand and recognize customer value, and we must position customer value. But that alone is not enough. In a way, it is more important how to create customer value and what to rely on to create value. Furthermore, how to develop, integrate and utilize multiple resources to achieve value goals and missions. This is a strategic perspective from the inside out. Drucker takes the goal and mission hypothesis as the core, and forms the complete framework of strategic analysis through the other two hypotheses. Many companies still use this framework today, such is the power of theory. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

3. Strategic characteristics and growth types. According to Drucker, strategy is a choice, a trade-off. Sometimes what you don’t do is more important than what you do. Strategy is to integrate all factors to improve productivity, which is a long-term and systematic behavior. From a dynamic perspective, strategy is the management of growth. Growth needs to be managed, it is not the same as growth. There may be three kinds of growth: first, the growth of productivity and value enhancement, which means the growth of internal strength and ability; The second is the growth of scale without the improvement of productivity, that is, the growth of obesity (this is a common problem of many enterprises in China, which was correctly said by Drucker many years ago); Third, the growth direction and manner are not correct cancer type growth, short-term growth but make the enterprise into a death trap. In reality, such examples abound. For example, the business model is not established and does not create value, the huge investment model with incorrect technical direction, the zero-sum game development model that damages the industrial ecology, and the false performance model that defraudes government subsidies. In recent years, China’s new energy vehicles, P2P finance, Internet sharing economy and other fields have rushed to death cases.

4. Innovation and entrepreneurship. Drucker inherited the innovative ideas of the Austrian economist Peter Schumpeter. Schumpeter believes that innovation is the driving force of economic growth, including product innovation, market innovation, technological innovation, etc. The essence of innovation is to change the original production function (capital, labor, technology and other production factors integration, collaboration to generate output and growth). Drucker’s innovation refers to innovation in a broad sense, including not only technological innovation, but also customer value innovation, management and organizational innovation. Drucker analyzed several sources and ways of innovation, such as innovation from the unexpected, innovation from “contradictions” (contradictions between reality and expectations, assumptions and results, etc.), as well as population, industry, culture, society and other macro factors that affect enterprise innovation. Drucker’s innovative ideas have played a great role in promoting the later development of enterprise and industry innovation. At present, innovation has become the most important cause of national economic development, and innovation has become a prominent science. New concepts such as disruptive innovation, disruptive innovation and explosive innovation are emerging one after another. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Who undertakes innovation and completes it? Drucker pointed out that the main body of innovation is the entrepreneur. Founders, leaders and managers are not necessarily entrepreneurs. An entrepreneur is a person with an entrepreneurial spirit. And the connotation of entrepreneurship is innovation. As soon as the concept of entrepreneurship came out, it quickly triggered the resonance of the majority of entrepreneurs, and it has become the most important part of the leadership model of business leaders. Drucker pointed out that entrepreneurship is a concept, but more importantly, it is a practice; Entrepreneurship is not a personal personality trait, so it is not innate, but dug up, cultivated and grown in practice. This is similar to Wang Yangming’s thought of the unity of knowledge and action. Entrepreneurship is not necessarily unique to business leaders; it can be practiced by all of us.

5. Strategic choice under uncertain environment. As a social ecologist, Drucker is concerned with changes in social and industrial systems and has studied the evolution of many industries. I have a deep impression on the future of retail and so on. Drucker was keen to identify uncertainty and discontinuity in socio-economic systems as the main challenges facing contemporary organizations. What to do? Of course, to innovate, to change, to discover the factors of the future in the current environment. We may not be able to predict the future, but we can know it from the information we already have. All of our current actions need to have future meaning (doing things for the future now). In the face of uncertainty, we must adhere to our mission and basic values on the one hand, and on the other hand, we need to be close to customers, integrate with customers, find customer changes, and change together with customers. As long as strategic choices are highly aligned with customer changes, we can overcome the barrier of uncertainty.

Management behavior theory

The theme of the third part of Drucker’s management theory system is management behavior. In 1954, Management Practice was published, marking the birth of management theory. Since the industrial Revolution and the emergence of market economy, industrial and commercial enterprises have become the main form of social organization. After the end of the Second World War, to the 1950s, the world entered a relatively stable economic order, The Times put forward the requirements of systematic research management, Drucker management theory came into being. I remember him proudly saying that before the publication of Management Practice, management seemed to be something done by a few geniuses, and no one could learn it. I turned management into a discipline. To a large extent, I invented management. As the founder of management, Drucker’s discussion of management can be said to be all-encompassing. I would like to make a few observations. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

1. Definition of management. Drucker believed that management is a practice, and the most important thing is not to know but to do well. Management is a discipline but not a science. It is this definition that separates the academics who focus on “scientific” management from Drucker. Later, Mintzberg defined management as the intersection of practice, science, and craft. In Drucker’s view, management is a great practice in today’s society and a social organ to use resources to develop social productive forces. Since it is an organ, management needs to be understood from a functional perspective, with the task of creating a whole that is greater than the sum of its individuals or parts. In The Practice of Management, Drucker tells the fables of three stonemasons: the man who makes a living by getting paid is not the manager, the man who does his work well and even becomes the top craftsman in the country is not the manager, but the man who works to build the whole cathedral is the manager.

For the content of management, Drucker once listed many aspects: setting goals, building organizations, communicating, delegating, establishing evaluation criteria, and developing people. I always remember Drucker’s most famous words: Management is to obtain results through the work of others. Managers can not do everything themselves, need to stimulate the potential and enthusiasm of the managed. Drucker issued a call that still shocks people: Management is to achieve others!

Drucker’s definition of management includes the content of leadership. Leadership behavior contains spiritual and moral factors. Somewhat like Confucius, the Chinese sage, Drucker emphasized the importance of choosing leaders with integrity and inspiring goodwill in organizations. Management is even a social institution, it is the product of civilization, also belongs to civilization itself, embodies the basic beliefs of society. The emergence of professional managers and the emergence of specialized management activities made Drucker, who had been concerned about organizational conflicts and many social defects since industrialization, see hope: well-intentioned and humanized management is the cornerstone of the healthy operation of organizations and society. In fact, all of Drucker’s management theories are centered on people, human dignity and human development, which reflects a distinct individual standard.

Drucker also explored the meaning of management at the macro level. The first is the Angle of social resource allocation. After the emergence of market economy, people generally believe that the invisible hand, the trading mechanism, can make the effective and balanced allocation of social resources. Drucker believes that after the emergence of organizations, management also plays an important role in the allocation of resources. This actually means the substitution of the organization for the market. Chandler, a famous business historian, called the control mechanism within an organization the visible hand. In his analysis of the boundaries of organizations, institutional economist Coase, a Nobel laureate in economics, also juxtated market mechanisms with organizational mechanisms (management), and the two viewed efficiency conditions as interchangeable. The second is the social moral Angle. That is, the legal perspective of management. Since the advent of capitalism, proponents have claimed that individual self-interest produces social welfare. The young Drucker, who just entered the academic world, did not agree, and he was worried about the future of “industrial people”. About 20 years later, Drucker discovered the bridge between the interests of the individual and the interests of society, that is, management. Through management, individuals in each organization have the willingness to take responsibility and create value for customers outside the organization. Individual efforts enhance social welfare; Individual responsibility and social responsibility should be unified. It is recognizing the social significance of management that Drucker attaches great importance to the values of managers and attaches great importance to the way of “liberal arts”. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

2. Boyah management. In his later years, Drucker defined management as a liberal art. To be honest, I do not fully agree with this Chinese translation, in contrast, Mr. Shao Minglu’s “art of freedom” may be closer to Drucker’s original intention. Because of the guiding and suggestive nature of the literal meaning of Chinese characters, people will associate “liberal arts” with broad and elegant, and they appear so high-end and elite. In fact, Drucker repeatedly stressed that management has nothing to do with personality and knowledge, and everyone can learn. In my opinion, “the art of freedom” has three meanings: first, the concept of freedom, individualism, and humanistic care. The core here is to set others free. This point has already been mentioned. The second is the dynamics, mobility and richness of practice of solving problems in specific situations and scenarios. In Chinese language, it means eclectic. Third, I learned a higher degree of management skills and entered the free realm of cooking and killing cattle. Freedom is the image of beauty and the soul of art. Drucker finally attributed management to art and freedom, to the liberation of the mind, so that innovation has an inexhaustible source. Of course, from a linguistic perspective, I have nothing against the concept of liberal management. Now that the convention has been established, continue to follow it.

According to my limited observation, there are not many Chinese enterprises that really practice liberal management. There are reasons for the growth stage and competitive environment of the enterprise, as well as the degree of commercial civilization and cultural tradition. In today’s environment, more enterprises are implementing a high-energy culture of high task, high pressure, high incentive and high elimination (I summarize it as a high-energy organization), and this legalistic performance mechanism is more powerful. Under the influence of long-term power culture, the managers often lack the grace to respect their subordinates, and some of the managed also lack self-discipline. Some enterprises that advocate Confucian culture are not individual-oriented, but collective-oriented; Influencing and controlling employees’ thoughts through education is far from true liberal arts. It may be necessary to wait for the post-90s and post-00s to become the main body of the enterprise, and Boya management will have the soil for implementation. The famous Drucker researcher in the United States, Drucker friend and colleague (Claremont University Druck-Masatoshi ITO Graduate School of Management) Marciarello believes that Drucker’s liberal arts ideas are also “lost” in the United States.

3. Management by objectives. As the founder of management management engaged in the actual work of management consulting, Drucker is not like some empty, bookish management scholars, only talking about some pedantic and grand ideas, only designing some models without practical significance. He put forward many simple, practical but significant management methods, management by objectives is one of them. Personally, I think this is Drucker’s greatest contribution to management, on the same level as Taylor’s scientific management. Some western management scholars believe that management by objectives is a Copernican revolution in the field of management. Different from the commonly understood KPI management, management by objectives emphasizes employee autonomy: employees participate in goal setting, make commitments to goals, and accomplish goals autonomously. Drucker was confident in the mission of the employees (his assumptions about human nature were positive) by observing the willingness of ordinary workers to take responsibility for the country’s victory during World War II. The main task of managers is to stimulate the willingness of employees to take responsibility and create conditions for them to complete their duties through decentralization. Responsible person is the core management concept of Drucker.

Management by objectives unifies individual rationality and organizational rationality of employees. The responsibility undertaken and committed by employees is part of the responsibility of the organization; The voluntary and autonomous behavior of employees is an integral part of the cooperative behavior of the organization. The so-called heart to think in one place, strength to make a place. Through management by objectives, Drucker solved the organizational paradox: how individuals and organizations are compatible. Another important feature of management by objectives is to pay attention to the results and the output of the system. This reflects Drucker’s consistent results-oriented thought. Chinese entrepreneurs Ren Zhengfei, He Xiangjian, Li Dongsheng and so on are very appreciative of this, respectively put forward the victory culture, food culture and performance culture. Deming, who worked with Drucker at New York University and is a quality guru in Japan and around the world, is less convinced of management by objectives, arguing that the process is more important than the result (PDCA is both the result and the process). CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

In the process of implementing management by objectives, it is necessary to pay attention to the consensus within the organization. Left-right consensus (both on goals and on the means to achieve them) requires a common foundation of facts, a transparent information environment, and adequate communication. In order to make employees willing to take responsibility for a long time, in addition to authorization, there should be a fair evaluation of their performance. For this reason, Drucker placed great emphasis on managerial/leader integrity. In my opinion, this is a necessary condition for effective implementation of management by objectives (sufficient condition is information and data).

Drucker’s management by objectives (MBO) thought and method are not entirely derived from the people-oriented values, but also related to the observation of business management practice. Henry Ford (Ford Sr.) distrusted managers and surrounded them with spies. Authoritarian, surveillance management nearly bankrupted the company (his grandson, Henry Ford II, brought it back to life through change). The opposite of the old Ford approach is GM’s decentralized management. At General Motors, the distribution of power between superiors and subordinates is somewhat similar to a negative list: as long as there is no provision for superiors to decide, the subordinates can make their own decisions. Based on this contrast, Drucker argued that organization is a community, which should be driven from the bottom up and controlled by the self. Not top-down, externally controlled, run by command.

As far as my observation is not necessarily comprehensive, after the birth of management by objectives, some traditional enterprises have not really implemented, and the imperative KPI approach is still the mainstream of management. However, in the 1970s, a group of technology-based and knowledge-based enterprises emerged, such as Inter, Oracle, etc., and began to practice management by objectives with OKR, and new enterprises such as Google even applied it to a new height. Management by objective spread to China, a bit of Huai orange into the meaning, most enterprises still like the KPI way. However, self-management in the platform organization, self-organization conditions, will bloom new flowers.

4. Effective managers. The Effective Manager (originally translated as The Effective Manager) is a great book (first published in 1966) that has influenced millions of managers, and it is from this book that many people began to enter the world of Drucker. About 1998-1999, I worked together with Bao Zheng and Peng Jianfeng on a consulting project in TCL Corporation. I listened to Mr. Bao’s lecture tour on “Effective managers” for several times. The book is not long, about 100,000 words, the style is popular, but it is not easy to understand. Many people read it often, and they don’t do it “productively.”

First, what is a manager. First, management is the product of the separation of ownership and management. The manager is not a private representative of the shareholders (mainly the controller), but a bearer of organizational responsibility. Managers exist because of responsibility. Second, managers are not necessarily team leaders; some knowledge workers are also managers. This is different from how we usually understand it. Managers are distinguished by whether they contribute to the organization through their decisions. Third, managers are not gifted geniuses; one could even say that everyone is a manager.

Second, what is effective or effective. Effective means producing results. Management must produce results. The results appear and exist outside the enterprise, not inside. In other words, the only criterion for testing results is customer value. When it comes to results, Drucker believes that they come from opportunities and tend to be distributed in fewer areas for companies, so they need to focus their efforts. Management effectiveness is a skill that can be trained and learned, a habit (and most important, in my opinion). It should be noted that Drucker proposed that effective managers are related to the emergence and growth of knowledge workers. On the one hand, these people have motives and pursuits beyond economic interests, on the other hand, they do not want to be controlled and pushed around, and they hope to have a certain space of freedom. By becoming effective managers, they can realize their self-worth.

Third, what prevents us from being effective managers? Managers are often in situations (scenarios) where time is occupied by others. Just like many bosses and executives in our group, they went to the office to sit down and just wanted to think about some important issues, and then the customer called, and then someone came to report and sign. From the perspective of space, we are in the organization, used to focus on internal problems, and often weighed down by internal problems. In addition, we are often caught up in the problems and difficulties of the moment, caught up in contradictions, and have no time to focus on the outside and the results. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Finally, how do you become an effective manager? Drucker made several suggestions.

First, master your time. Time is our most important and scarce resource. To be effective, managers do not necessarily start from work, but from time. Do not do things that can be entrusted to others, and be good at integrating and using fragments of time.

Second, always ask yourself: What can I contribute? The contribution here is the contribution to external results and performance. Without contributions, managers have no value. This means that our focus is on uncertain markets and customer value.

Third, bring out the best in people. This should be true for others as well as for ourselves. The instinct of human nature, often make people pay attention to the shortcomings of others; The blind areas of self-cognition often make themselves struggle with their shortcomings. Give full play to people’s strengths, can get twice the result with half the effort. Drucker valued interpersonal communication, but he stressed that it is not necessary to pay attention to how the relationship with others is, but to pay attention to what the other person can contribute. This is based on rational cooperation rules, rather than vulgar, pretentious talk about relationships, talk about life, emotional intelligence. It is not important to like a person or not, the important thing is that he plays a role. Drucker summed up effective interpersonal relationships in four sentences: mutual communication, teamwork, self-development, and achievement of others. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

Fourth, first things first. Drucker said that the effective manager, to do the big things first, do not worry about the secondary things. What are the important things? It’s good for the future, good for opportunities. Managers should know how to give up, if something was not done in the first place, will it be done now? If the answer is no, don’t do it. The reason why some managers are always busy with the immediate, superficial things, and why they are always stuck between the future, which may produce results, and the past, which urgently needs to be solved, is because we always prioritize our work according to the internal pressures of the organization. Effective managers must focus, focus, and do one thing at a time. When planning to start a new business, be sure to delete an existing business. This is a slap in the face of some of our blindly diverse bosses.

5. Decision-making elements. In The Effective Manager, Drucker spends much of his time talking about how managers make decisions. Drucker outlined five elements of decision making: First, understand the nature of the problem. The problems that often arise are solved through institutions, norms and principles; But the truly occasional, exceptional problems are few and far between. So effective managers don’t always make decisions. When new problems are encountered, new hypotheses need to be formed and tested by scientific methods. Second, find out the boundary conditions of the problem. First of all, it is necessary to make clear the goal, and on this basis, to understand the norms needed to make decisions. The boundary conditions are the constraints to achieve the goal. We need to know the real constraints (not to be misled by false, vague boundaries), and we need to be clear about the minimum requirements (the bottom line) of certain constraints (some). As I understand it, the boundary is a necessary influence on the target value. Take the external boundary as an example, to choose what kind of new business, the demand must be real and have a certain capacity. Take the internal boundary as an example, to change from opportunity growth to system growth, organizational system is indispensable. Study what the right decision is, not the acceptable compromise. And compromise is a common problem with organizations. Decisions need to be correct first, and then consider where they can be adapted and compromised. Fourth, the decision plan takes into account the implementation measures, so that the decision can be implemented. Any decision needs to answer the question of who knows, who will do it, what action should be taken, how to make it enforceable, and how to match the capabilities of those who implement it. Fifth, feedback is needed in the decision-making process to verify whether the decision is effective and correct. In today’s parlance, it means iteration.

Regarding the decision-making behavior of managers, Drucker believed that decision-making is usually not a choice between right and wrong, but a choice between probably right and possibly wrong. The first step in decision-making is not to gather facts, but to have an opinion. This means making a hypothesis first and testing it later. Verification requires factual basis, but when looking for facts, there needs to be a standard to measure and judge the facts. When making decisions, we should list as many options as possible and select the appropriate one. Pay attention to the negative opinion as an alternative to the decision. In Ren Zhengfei’s words, the opposite view is strategic reserve, and enterprises need to set up a blue army mechanism at the strategic management level. CXO UNION-CXO联盟（cxounion.cn）

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